Core Insights - Gold prices have surged significantly, with COMEX gold futures closing at $3912.1 per ounce on October 4, marking a 3.23% increase for the week and over 48% year-to-date [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have reached new highs, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang reporting prices of 1129 RMB and 1131 RMB per gram respectively [3][4] Market Trends - The demand for gold jewelry remains strong during the Golden Week, with consumers showing a preference for lightweight and stylish designs that are more affordable [7] - Many consumers believe that gold prices will continue to rise, leading to increased purchases ahead of anticipated price hikes [9] - The trend of "one-price" gold jewelry is gaining traction, with consumers prioritizing design over weight, especially among younger buyers [9][10] Investment Sentiment - Investor sentiment is bolstered by the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. government shutdown and weak employment data, which have heightened the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [12] - Analysts predict further increases in gold prices, with Barclays and Citigroup projecting targets of $4000 per ounce and $4200 per ounce by mid-2026 [12][13] - Strong inflows into gold ETFs indicate a robust interest from private investors, suggesting a bullish outlook for the gold market [13]

Core Viewpoint - Precious metal prices surged on Monday, with gold reaching a record high due to concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown, which could delay key employment data and cloud the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path [1] Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Spot gold prices rose by 1% to a record high of $3,798.73 per ounce, surpassing last Tuesday's peak, marking six consecutive weeks of price increases [1] - Year-to-date, gold prices have surged over 40%, driven by central bank demand and the Federal Reserve's return to interest rate cuts, with expectations of continued upward momentum [1] - Gold ETFs are at their highest holdings since 2022, indicating strong investor interest and support for the price increase [1] Group 2: Other Precious Metals - Silver prices increased by 1.2%, while platinum and palladium also saw significant gains, supported by ongoing market supply tightness and inflows into precious metal-backed ETFs [1] Group 3: Economic and Policy Implications - Investors are closely watching a meeting between U.S. congressional leaders and Trump, as failure to reach an agreement on a short-term spending bill could lead to a government shutdown, threatening the release of critical economic data, including the employment report expected to show a slowdown in job growth for September [1] - Barclays strategists noted that gold prices do not appear overvalued relative to the U.S. dollar and government bonds, suggesting that gold should carry a certain premium related to the risks of the Federal Reserve losing its independence [1]