利率 - 低利率、强权益，怎么办？20250825 摘要 当前长端利率在 1.5%-2%区间震荡，参考日本和美国经验，低利率环 境下长期震荡或将持续，经济增长需保持合理期限溢价，全社会投资回 报不足以吸引资金流入债市。 中国与海外发达国家不同之处在于资金流动受限及维持正常货币政策， 未实施 QE 或 YCC，导致期限利差压缩。房地产和基建融资需求下降加 剧利差压缩，降准降息仍可能带动长端利率下行。 尽管利率较低，降准降息仍可能带来债市机会。股市表现对债市有扰动， 但中期仍看好长期利率下行。关注重要政治会议对市场情绪的潜在催化 作用。 低利率环境下，保险公司面临资金运用挑战，需增加高股息权益类资产 配置以覆盖负债端成本，海外发达国家亦采取类似策略，利率每下降 1%，高股息权益配置比例上升十几个百分点。 日本 GPI 养老金在长端利率降至 1%以下时，调整配置基准为股债各占 50%，国内外资产各占 50%，反映低利率环境下增加权益类资产以获 取收益的必要性。 Q&A 今年债券市场的整体表现如何？未来利率走势可能会怎样？ 今年（2025 年）债券市场整体表现较为震荡。年初十年期国债利率在经历了 一波牛市后，最低降至 ...

从被视为市场风向标的险资动向看，今年来险资举牌持续升温。Wind数据统计，截至 2025年8月19日， 险资年内举牌次数已近30次，创近四年新高。举牌标的高度集中在银行、公用事业、能源等低估值、高 股息板块。有分析认为，资金向高股息板块迁移的逻辑仍为确定性稀缺时代对相对安全边际的追逐，只 要低利率环境和"资产荒"的核心矛盾未发生根本性扭转，增量资金对高股息、低估值的银行股的配置需 求就会持续存在。与此同时，险资也加大了对高科技板块的调研和布局力度，工业机械、电子元件、半 导体、应用软件、电气部件与设备等成为密集关注的领域。 对于普通投资者而言，攻防兼备的哑铃型配置策略也同样适用。面对机遇与挑战并存，或可一边用低波 动、高股息的板块充当"压舱石"，另一边用高弹性的科技成长领域或聚焦科技的小微盘股来博取向上空 间，通过不同风格的均衡配置，有助于实现进可攻退可守的投资目标。 防守端，目前正在发行的汇安中证红利低波动100指数基金(A类：024220，C类：024221)，紧密跟踪中 证红利低波动100指数(以下简称"红利低波100")。该指数成分股及行业分布分散，加权方式也更低波。 根据红利低波100指数编制方案， ...

首先，上周市场不受外部干扰，体现较强的韧性。上周海外市场出现一定调整和波动，A 股市场则不受其扰，体现出行情的独立性。我们认为主要源 于七月以来，包括基建投资和消费刺激等各项宏观政策的出台，稳定了投资者对于未来的预期。与此同时，低利率环境下，存款资金逐步增配权益资产也 正在悄然发生。新增资金入市成为推动市场不断反弹的主要动力。 风险提示：国际地缘、贸易冲突超出预期；全球金融市场风险暴露；国内上市公司业绩增速回落超预期；全球经济衰退超预期。 上周市场继续反弹，沪指再创本轮行情的新高。沪指上周一路向上反弹，周五以全天最高点，也是年内最高点收盘。深圳成指继续加速补涨，上周成 功越过了去年四季度的高点。量能方面，上周两市日均量能超过 25000 亿元，连续两周大幅放量。上周市场热点主要集中在 TMT和大消费行业。投资风 格方面，科技股涨幅领先。 从市场运行节奏看，沪指越过 2021 年市场高点，重心继续上移。沪指本月初突破了周线大箱体的顶部，这个位置已经从压力位转为了支撑位。上周 则继续向上攻击，周一便直接越过了 2021 年的市场高点，稍作整理后下半周继续上攻，目前仍然处于箱体上移进程。 ...

股市赚钱效应较好 对于此轮上涨行情，方正富邦基金首席投资官汤戈认为，低利率环境下流动性充裕，长期资金稳步入 市，投资者风险偏好回升，市场上涨赚钱效应进一步提升风险偏好，带动增量资金入场，形成正反馈。 近期科技主线行情持续活跃，光模块、AI算力、半导体等科技板块在一系列政策与市场需求提振下表 现较好。 展望后市，汤戈认为，即便指数创了阶段新高，但大多数行业拥挤度仍在中等区间，市场没有整体性过 热，最多只是局部过热，并且仍有一些板块处在拥挤度较低的位置。这些低位板块可在局部过热的板块 冷却时承接起市场的资金与热度。 □本报记者 王宇露 上周市场大幅上涨，中证新华社民族品牌工程指数上涨4.81%，报1865.89点。中兴通讯、兆易创新、上 海家化等成分股上周表现强势；下半年以来，中际旭创、科沃斯、达仁堂等成分股涨幅居前。展望后 市，机构认为，当前投资者情绪和流动性因素对股市的驱动仍处于偏强水平，短期市场强势表现有望持 续。从中期角度看，基本面因素有望逐渐接替流动性因素，进一步推动行情表现。 多只成分股表现强势 上周市场大幅上涨，上证指数上涨3.49%，深证成指上涨4.57%，创业板指上涨5.85%，沪深300指数上 ...

文/ 中国社会科学院金融研究所货币理论与货币政策研究室副主任 蔡真 中国 逐渐步入 低利率 环 境 ，一 般 理论 认为 低利 率环 境会 导致 资产 价 格泡 沫。然而日本的实践情况并非如此。对比日本和美国实践经验，低利率政 策能否促使房地产市场 "止跌回稳"取决于三大要素：降息速度、是否救 助金融机构以及财政政策的配合力度。中国的政策力度大体处于日美两者 中 间 状 态 ， 为 避 免 中 国 发 生 " 日 本 病 " ， 仍 需 多 方 政 策 加 力 ， 推 动 房 地 产"止跌回稳"。2 008年的全球金融危机以及2 020年的新冠疫情对各国经 济产生严重冲击，全球主要央行采取 除实体经济原因外，利率还受到金融层面和其他因素的影响。金融层面的原因主要来自投资者风险偏好的变化，金融危机以及全球公共卫生事件导致投资 者风险厌恶程度增加，这导致对无风险资产的需求。大量外汇储备流向美国进而压低了利率水平（ Bernanke，2015）。其他因素主要来自收入不平等， 这导致整个社会的边际消费倾向降低，进而压低了利率水平。 宽松货币 政策积极应对，这直接导致超低利率环境的出现。尽管俄乌冲突后美国进入加息周期， ...

友邦保险（01299.HK）于8月21日交出了2025年上半年成绩单。新业务价值同比增长14%至28.38亿美元，18个市场中有13个实现正增 长，新业务价值利润率提升3.4个百分点至57.7%，显示出其在亚太地区的业务韧性。税后营运溢利稳步增长6%，每股溢利增幅更达 12%，背后除了业务质量支撑，亦不乏股份回购对每股指标的提振作用。 然而，一片向好的营运表现之下，纯利却同比骤降23.5%，投资端显著承压。此外，在其关键战场中国内地，年化新保费同比下滑7%； 经市场波动与假设更新调整后，新业务价值亦出现4%的同比收缩。增长动能放缓，正为友邦的扩张叙事蒙上一层不确定的阴影。 业务韧性增强，投资端骤拖后腿 作为亚洲保险业的标杆企业，友邦保险的业绩表现一直是区域保险市场景气度的风向标。2025年上半年，友邦保险新业务价值同比增长 14%，达到28.38亿美元，业务覆盖的18个市场中，有13个实现正向增长，显示其区域布局的广度与韧性。此外，其新业务价值利润率 提升3.4个百分点至57.7%，印证其在高价值业务上的筛选能力和定价优势。 | | 截至2025年 | 截至2024年 | | | | --- | --- | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the bond market amidst fluctuations in the stock market, emphasizing a long-term low interest rate environment and its implications for investment strategies in bonds and equities [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Market Analysis - The bond market experienced a decline, with 30-year government bonds dropping over 3 basis points, influenced by the cooling stock market and external interventions affecting bond futures [1][2]. - The article argues that the low interest rate environment is expected to persist, suggesting that there is no significant upward pressure on interest rates in the medium to long term [4][6]. - It highlights that government bonds saw a substantial increase in issuance, with a reported 7.656 trillion yuan in new government bonds in the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year growth of 21.3% [8][12]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The article advises investors to align their investment choices with their risk tolerance, suggesting that low-risk funds should consider short-term bond funds and fixed-income products as viable options [15]. - It emphasizes maintaining a balanced portfolio between stocks and bonds, indicating that a diversified approach remains a cost-effective strategy [16]. - The article also encourages embracing high-quality equity investments in a low interest rate environment, while recognizing the challenges in identifying and diversifying quality stocks [16]. Group 3: Market Trends and Insights - The article notes the ongoing volatility in the Hong Kong stock market, particularly highlighting the decline of Meituan's stock, which has reached a new low for the year [19]. - It discusses the launch of a new technology-focused ETF by Huaxia, aimed at capturing opportunities in the tech sector amidst market fluctuations [21][22]. - The article concludes with a mention of a global asset allocation strategy that remains open for investment, despite recent market downturns [25].

Group 1 - The current market is in a primary upward trend, with a strong bullish atmosphere and high willingness to hold stocks [1] - Key driving factors include loose liquidity and a low interest rate environment, attracting increasing attention and recognition from investors towards the capital market [1] - There is a diverse range of market hotspots, including previously favored sectors like semiconductors and newly emerging targets such as the liquor industry [1] Group 2 - A structural differentiation among individual stocks is noted, with some experiencing high reversals after rapid surges, indicating potential risks [1] - The driving factors for the current market trend remain unchanged, suggesting continued potential for capital inflow and an optimistic outlook for future market trends [1] - Investors are advised to actively respond to the current market, combining fundamental and technical analysis to identify suitable investment targets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the growing popularity of dividend insurance as a solution for consumers seeking stable returns in a low-interest-rate environment, highlighting the strong performance of Xinhua Insurance in this sector [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Context - The past three years have seen a decline in life insurance guaranteed interest rates from 3.5% to 2.0%, reducing the appeal of traditional insurance products [2]. - Bank wealth management products have frequently broken net asset value, and money market fund annualized returns have dropped below 1.5%, leading consumers to seek alternatives [2][3]. - With the breakdown of rigid repayment, investors are left with limited "risk-free" options, primarily government bonds and deposits, which do not cover the real costs of education, retirement, and wealth transfer [2]. Group 2: Dividend Insurance Mechanism - Dividend insurance offers a unique mechanism that aligns with consumer demands by providing a guaranteed interest rate while allowing for potential growth through annual dividends based on the company's performance [3][4]. - This product can smooth out returns during market fluctuations through special reserves, making it an optimal solution for both consumers and insurance companies in a low-interest environment [3][4]. Group 3: Xinhua Insurance Performance - Xinhua Insurance's average dividend realization rate for 2024 is reported at 152%, with 56 out of 59 products achieving a realization rate of 100% or more [6][8]. - The company has maintained an average total investment return of 5.13% from 2014 to 2024, with a projected 2024 comprehensive investment return of 8.5% [8][12]. - Xinhua Insurance's solvency ratios are robust, with a solvency adequacy ratio consistently above 200%, ensuring the company can meet its future dividend commitments [8]. Group 4: New Product Launch - Xinhua Insurance has launched three flagship dividend insurance products under the "Xinhua Red Fortune Season," targeting wealth transfer, quality retirement, and lifelong cash flow [10][11]. - The products are designed to address key consumer concerns in a low-interest and aging society, providing a comprehensive wealth management solution [11][12]. - The "Shengshi Glory Smart Win" life insurance product features a steadily increasing coverage amount, while the "Shengshi Anying" pension insurance allows for flexible retirement income [10][11]. Group 5: Strategic Focus - Xinhua Insurance has elevated service to a strategic level, integrating health and wellness services with its insurance offerings, creating a competitive edge in the market [9][12]. - The company aims to transform its investment strength into tangible products and services that meet customer needs, reinforcing its position as a leader in the dividend insurance sector [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market dynamics in A-shares and H-shares, highlighting the differences in investor behavior and market performance between the two, driven by factors such as low interest rates, external economic conditions, and structural imbalances in capital supply and demand [1][6][20]. Market Performance - A-shares continue to show strong performance with nearly 60% of stocks rising, while the overall market capitalization remains above 2.5 trillion [1]. - The financing balance reached a net buy of 39.3 billion, marking the third highest single-day net buy since September 24, indicating strong market enthusiasm [2]. - The brokerage sector saw significant inflows, with the two largest securities ETFs net buying over 1.1 billion, leading to a rally in brokerage stocks [4]. A-shares vs H-shares - A-shares are characterized by a strong influx of capital, leading to bullish market sentiment, while H-shares are experiencing volatility with less decisive capital inflows [5][6]. - The net buying of southbound funds in H-shares was significantly lower at 1.4 billion compared to the previous record of 36 billion, indicating a retreat of short-term trading funds [4][6]. Main Investment Themes - The first main theme is the unprecedented low interest rate environment, which is driving capital into the stock market. Key interest rates, such as the one-year fixed deposit rate, have fallen below 1% [9][10]. - The second theme is the external economic environment, particularly the decline of the US dollar index, which has positively influenced global risk assets, including A-shares [12][14]. - The third theme is the structural imbalance in capital supply and demand, leading to overheating in certain sectors like small-cap stocks and convertible bonds [20][21]. Company Earnings - Several key companies in the Hong Kong market reported earnings that exceeded expectations, with Xiaomi's second-quarter operating profit reaching 13.4 billion, significantly above the forecast of 10.4 billion [27][28]. - The performance of major internet companies like Tencent and Xiaomi remains strong, contributing to the growth of related ETFs [28]. Investment Recommendations - The article suggests monitoring the trends related to the three main themes to gauge future market movements, particularly the low interest rate environment, external economic conditions, and regulatory attitudes towards capital markets [22].