相较而言，我国银行理财业具有鲜明的中国特色。例如，业务开展以银行为依托，凭借母行固有的 渠道优势以及客户基础；产品以固收类为主，权益类占比低；行业发展路径受市场和监管双轮驱动；等 等。特别是近些年，我国利率水平不断走低，无论是货币和债券市场利率，还是存贷款利率均处于历史 低位。从长期因素看，我国老龄化等人口结构变化导致自然利率承压；从短期因素看，国内供强需弱矛 盾突出，央行把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，采取降息政策。低利率环 境在一定程度上压缩了银行盈利空间，也促使居民资产配置更加多元。各金融子行业间以及银行理财业 内部的竞争会加大，"存款搬家"与"存款争夺战"现象难以避免。 总体来看，我国银行理财业与国际成熟市场相比仍存在差距。例如，产品同质化现象仍较为突出， 差异化创新不足；费率调整多以短期营销为导向，部分理财机构存在"内卷式降费"；等等。银行理财业 从容应对市场竞争，唯有通过高质量发展，走好金融为民之路。 一方面，要强化对银行理财高质量发展的监管和引导。防范行业降费"内卷式"竞争，鼓励机构建立 与业绩挂钩的科学收费模式。推动机构差异化发展，加强投研能力建设，开发适配不同客群的差 ...

资产配置 | 专题报告 低利率环境，红利投资需要择时 研究结论 风险提示 1、极端风险事件，例如中美关系、全球地缘出现超预期大事件等，相应风险难以事前预 判； 2、量化模型失效的风险，历史数据对未来的指引效果有限。 | | | 股债跷跷板的成因、影响和策略应对 2025-09-17 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 低利率环境下，红利并未持续占优，而是轮动表现。美国经验可得，红利在利率边 际下行幅度较大时明显占优，进入低利率环境后反而胜率不高。中国在 2024 年 12 月进入低利率环境后和美国类似，开始红利和宽基走势相近，9 个月后大幅跑输。 23 年都处于低利率环境中的日本经验具有较强的借鉴意义：红利风格在长期低利率 环境中轮动表现，而非持续占优。 ⚫ 红利投资应基于风格研究框架，而非股息率。股息率与红利股价表现并不直接相 关，分红收入只是财务表征且已在股价上体现。红利投资应从 DDM 模型出发，通过 研究各个变量发生变化的组合，找到红利风格占优的情景：1）从分子端看，在全市 场盈利预期下行时， ...

2026年开年，保险资管产品交出了一份亮眼的成绩单。 尽管固收类产品凭借稳健表现成为"压舱石"，但真正的业绩亮点却集中在含权类产品上。据同花顺数据显示，截 至2月25日，今年以来区间收益率排名前10位的产品，区间涨幅在14.50%至63.84%之间，其中权益类产品占据一 半以上。上榜机构包括中信保诚资管、阳光资产、泰康资产等。 Wind数据显示，截至2月24日，今年以来已披露最新净值的1602只保险资管产品中，实现区间正收益的产品占比 高达93.2%，其中近20只权益类产品收益率突破10%。在固收收益率持续承压的背景下，权益类资产正成为保险资 管机构增厚收益的关键抓手。 多位业内专家在接受采访时指出，这一"开门红"并非偶然，而是低利率环境倒逼、监管政策引导、资本市场回暖 多重因素共振的结果，更折射出低利率时代下，保险资金这一"耐心资本"正加速从"稳健防御"向"价值进攻"转变 的配置逻辑。 谁最赚钱、谁在掉队？ 固收托底，含权类成亮点 近年来，保险资管公司所管理的资金是险资重要组成部分，在支持资本市场和稳定经济方面，正逐渐成为一股不 可忽视的力量。 记者留意到，今年以来，保险资管产品业绩呈现鲜明的结构性特征。W ...

26年开年，存款利率普遍跌破1%了，这事儿去年就有风声，今年更严重了。 老百姓也不傻，存款利息这么低，谁还死守着银行？ 聊个数据，2025年末银行理财市场规模突破33.29万亿元，比年初涨了11.15%，创了历史新高。 这是什么意思呢？存款不如理财了，当然老百姓也不是一股脑的进入股市这种高风险行业，而是开始在 银行内买理财产品。这量级是很大的，一年时间里新增个人投资者1769万个，相当于近1800万人把到期 的存款转投了理财产品。 去年开始，工商银行、农业银行这些国有大行的1个月、3个月期大额存单利率直接降到0.9%，等到翻 过年，以前一直用比较高的利息来吸存的中小银行，也绷不住了。比如云南腾冲农商行、隆阳农商行的 3个月期大额存单也跌进0字头。 曾经得抢才能买到的大额存单，现在不光收益缩水，品种还越来越少。 咋回事呢？ 说白了就是银行自己撑不住了。2025年商业银行平均净息差降到1.42%，国有大行更惨，只有1.31%， 都快碰到监管红线了。 贷款那头因为要支持实体经济，利率一个劲儿往下降，存款这头成本又降不下来，银行两头挤压，只能 拿大额存单开刀。再加上监管也在引导银行降负债成本，所以咱们就开始看到了「短 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the resurgence of participating insurance products, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment, as families seek options that provide both guaranteed returns and potential dividends [5][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In July 2025, the insurance industry association reported a standard life insurance product interest rate of 1.99%, prompting a wave of announcements regarding interest rate reductions for various insurance products [3]. - Major insurance companies adjusted their maximum interest rates, with standard life insurance products dropping from 2.50% to 2%, and participating insurance products from 2% to 1.75% [3]. - The decline in interest rates has led to a renewed interest in participating insurance as a tool to hedge against low rates, allowing policyholders to benefit from potential excess returns [3][4]. Group 2: Product Features - Participating insurance offers two types of returns: guaranteed returns based on the predetermined interest rate and excess returns through dividends [6]. - Insurance companies are required to distribute at least 70% of their surplus earnings to policyholders, which can vary based on the company's profitability [6]. - The structure of participating insurance, with a guaranteed minimum return and potential for dividends, appeals to consumers facing uncertainty in business and declining interest rates [4][6]. Group 3: Historical Context - The first surge of participating insurance in China occurred in the late 1990s following a series of interest rate cuts, with the introduction of the first participating insurance product in 2000 [9]. - After 2013, the rise of traditional insurance products with higher guaranteed rates led to a decline in participating insurance sales, but recent low-interest trends have prompted a strategic shift back to these products [9][11]. - As of 2026, participating insurance is becoming a key focus for insurance companies, especially as consumer demand for stable investment options increases [11]. Group 4: Consumer Sentiment - Initial hesitations from consumers regarding participating insurance stemmed from past complaints about unmet dividend expectations and sales misrepresentations [10]. - Regulatory measures have been implemented to ensure clearer communication regarding the benefits and risks associated with participating insurance products [10]. - The current market environment, characterized by low interest rates and a shift in consumer investment preferences, is creating new opportunities for participating insurance products [11].

Group 1 - The global market is experiencing significant changes in asset allocation logic and industry dynamics due to the ongoing low interest rate environment and fluctuating expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1] - In January, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000, exceeding market expectations, which led traders to push back the anticipated rate cut to July [1] - The low interest rate environment is accelerating the financialization of residents' asset allocation, with a shift from low-risk assets like cash and deposits to equity assets in the U.S. [2] Group 2 - The banking sector is seeing a decline in the average interest rate for new loans, which has dropped to 3.15% as of December 2025, with expectations of stabilization at low levels [2] - The express delivery sector shows strong demand resilience, with industry leader Zhongtong Express enhancing shareholder returns through low-interest convertible bonds [2] - The construction and decoration industry is benefiting from improved bond issuance data, with increased financing for infrastructure projects supported by special bonds and state-owned enterprise orders remaining stable [3] Group 3 - The precious metals sector, particularly gold, is viewed positively in the medium to long term due to macroeconomic uncertainties and a weakening U.S. dollar [3] - The copper market is supported by a tight supply of copper concentrate and gradually recovering domestic demand [3] - The aluminum industry is characterized by a strong demand against weak supply, with clear expectations for price increases [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The ongoing low interest rate environment is prompting a reallocation of household assets, with a notable trend of "deposit migration" observed. By the end of December, the proportion of non-bank deposits reached 10.6%, up 1.2 percentage points from the beginning of the year, while public fund assets grew by 14.9% year-on-year [2][8] - The report draws insights from the experiences of the US and Japan regarding household wealth allocation under low interest rates, suggesting potential paths for the evolution of domestic asset allocation structures [2][8] Summary by Sections 1. Low Interest Rate Environment and Asset Reallocation - The report highlights the sustained low interest rate environment, with both the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) at historical lows. The downward trend in deposit rates is expected to continue, influencing household asset reallocation [6][8] 2. US Experience: Decline in Low-Risk Assets and Rise in Equity Assets - In the US, the share of low-risk assets has decreased while equity assets have significantly increased. By the end of 2024, equity assets accounted for 51.1% of financial assets, up 17.9 percentage points from 1987 [11][12] - The report notes that during various interest rate cuts, low-risk assets saw a decline in both scale and growth rate, indicating a shift towards higher-risk, higher-return investments [21][25] 3. Japan Experience: Persistent Low-Risk Preference with Slight Increase in Equity Allocation - Japan has maintained a low-risk preference in asset allocation, with equity assets slightly increasing to 17.1% by the end of 2023, a modest rise of 4.3 percentage points since 1987. However, cash and deposits still dominate the asset mix [3][5] - The report emphasizes that despite low interest rates, there has not been a significant outflow of deposits in Japan, indicating a different response to low rates compared to the US [3][5] 4. Summary: Impact of Low Interest Rates on Asset Allocation Behavior - The report concludes that low interest rates influence household asset allocation behaviors, with macroeconomic conditions playing a crucial role in determining the flow and scale of funds. The shift from low-risk to higher-return assets is a common trend observed in both the US and Japan [2][3]

Benchmark indices opened lower on Thursday morning, weighed down by weakness in information technology stocks, though select consumption-driven stocks provided support. The BSE Sensex, which closed at ₹83,817.69 in the previous session, opened at ₹83,757.54 and declined to ₹83,381.35 by 9:50 am, down 436.34 points or 0.52 per cent. The NSE Nifty 50 fell to ₹25,639.85 from its previous close of ₹25,776.00, losing 136.15 points or 0.53 per cent.“There are a few near-term market trends that are significant. Th ...

2025年，在存款利率下行、居民财富管理需求升级的背景下，理财市场规模显著增长，其大类资产配置 也出现新动向：大幅增配存款类资产以平抑波动。 展望2026年，受访市场机构和专家建议理财公司优化产品分层与资产配置，以多资产、多策略寻求收益 增强，提升对公募基金等工具产品的配置强度，并审慎增加权益资产暴露，以应对低利率环境下的收益 挑战。 2025年资本市场回暖，理财产品也逐渐加大含权产品布局。数据显示，截至三季度末，理财十大重仓公 募基金中，股票型基金、混合型基金占比较季初分别提升3个、0.4个百分点至4.1%、1.8%，债券型基金 持仓较季初下降5.2个百分点至81.8%，配置占比呈现明显的"跷跷板"效应。 "权益类资产配置下降主要是受到老产品整改扰动，如果处置老产品涉及相关权益类资产，很可能导致 总规模下降，这与股票持仓不直接相关。"王一峰称。 对公募基金仍将保持较高配置强度 33万亿元银行理财市场大幅增配存款类资产 近日，银行业理财登记托管中心发布的《中国银行业理财市场年度报告（2025年）》（以下简称《年度 报告》）显示，截至2025年末，银行理财市场存续规模为33.29万亿元，较年初增长11.15%。 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that China's broad interest rates have entered a historically low range, leading to significant changes in the financing structure, with a continuous decline in the proportion of indirect financing [3][44] - The trend of "financial disintermediation" is occurring, where savings are moving from banks to non-bank financial institutions, resulting in a shrinking of bank credit and an increase in non-bank deposits [3][48] - The report suggests that the current low interest rate environment is conducive to the development of the capital market, providing ample liquidity and valuation support [3][44] Group 2 - The report draws parallels with international experiences, particularly from the US and Japan, where low interest rates led to significant shifts in banking operations, asset allocation by residents, and market performance [9][27] - In the US, the low interest rate period saw a notable increase in the proportion of stocks and funds in household financial assets, rising from 38.8% in 2011 to 53.9% in 2021 [19] - Japan experienced a similar trend, with the proportion of stocks and funds in household assets increasing by nearly 10 percentage points during its low interest rate period [32] Group 3 - The report indicates that the Chinese stock market is entering a "slow bull" phase, supported by the ongoing financial disintermediation and the expected recovery in industry demand [44][48] - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-growth sectors that benefit from both domestic and external demand, such as technology and advanced manufacturing [3][44] - The report also notes that certain quality dividend assets still hold investment value despite the changing market dynamics [3][44]