2025.08. 25 本文字数：1660，阅读时长大约3分钟 同时，当前数字技术变革等，正在改变货币政策传导机制和场景。如数字技术不断拓宽信用货币使用 范围和传导范式，货币政策的传导速率、时空边界都较过往出现复杂而彻底的改变，这意味着美联储 需基于数字技术的流变特征来调整其货币政策的适应性支持框架。又如去中心化的稳定币等，正在改 变货币的传导媒介和生态，以美元为支撑的稳定币，将抬高美联储跟踪和分析货币在经济社会演进路 径的成本，增加了货币政策对经济社会敏感适应能力的难度。 美联储降息之门正缓缓开启。 作者 | 一财评论员 而且，基于美元的稳定币使部分货币政策功能，比如币值稳定的部分功能正在从美联储向美国财政部 转移，这越发侵蚀美联储对宏观金融全局的把控能力，及决策难度，从而击穿市场对央行货币政策独 立性的传统信仰，毕竟信用货币的价值受国债发行部门的影响更多。 这次美联储货币政策新框架调整，继续保留传统就业与通胀目标的互补性假设前提，这意味着美联储 货币政策新框架在设计机制上，无法割舍掉其赋予委员会相对灵活的自由裁量空间，如委员会打算在 每年1月的年度组织会议上审查这些原则并酌情进行调整等。 在最新的杰克逊霍 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is opening the door to interest rate cuts as it adjusts its monetary policy framework, emphasizing the need for flexibility in achieving full employment and price stability [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's New Monetary Policy Framework - The new framework redefines the goals of full employment and price stability, indicating that fixed employment targets are unsuitable due to their variability over time [1]. - The Federal Reserve has shifted away from a "compensatory" inflation strategy, signaling that upcoming rate cuts are preventive rather than aggressive [1][3]. - The adjustment in the monetary policy framework is partly a response to recent significant revisions in employment data by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, raising concerns about the reliability of employment statistics [1][2]. Group 2: Challenges and Implications - The current environment presents uncertainties regarding the stability and predictability of decision-making, influenced by potential data distortions in employment and price indices [2]. - Digital technology is transforming the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy, complicating the Fed's ability to adapt its framework to these changes [2][3]. - The emergence of decentralized stablecoins is shifting some monetary policy functions from the Federal Reserve to the U.S. Treasury, challenging the Fed's control over macro-financial dynamics [2][3]. Group 3: Global Market Impact - The impact of the Fed's interest rate cuts on global markets will not be uniform but will depend on the economic relationships between countries and their acceptance of dollar-based stablecoins [4]. - Countries need to adjust their risk management strategies in response to the evolving global market dynamics influenced by the Fed's policy changes [4][5]. - The Fed's policy adjustments prompt other central banks to reconsider their traditional frameworks and adapt to new technological and transmission mechanisms [5].

当前美联储面临复杂的不确定性环境，这首先反映在决策依据的稳定性、确定性和可预见性。不论是业 已暴露的美国劳工统计局的就业统计"事故"，还是尚未发现的价格指数统计问题等，其本质都是一种结 果统计，需要人积极参与作为，技术和动机上都存在数据失真的确定性风险。美国劳工统计局的数据失 真问题，意味着美联储的货币政策新框架需对此做出明确回应。 美联储货币政策框架的调整，带来的不仅是美联储受压下的降息空间开启，更是各国央行如何反思用相 关性决策依据执行因果律判断的传统政策框架，并面对新技术和新传导机制，迎应新决策环境的制度范 式变革。 美联储降息之门正缓缓开启。 在最新的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上，美联储主席鲍威尔宣布，美联储更新货币政策运行框架。这一新 框架对货币政策追求的充分就业和价格稳定目标做了新阐述，认为充分就业水平无法直接衡量，且随时 间推移变化，为就业设定固定目标是不适合的；价格稳定对健全稳定的经济至关重要，长期通胀率主要 由货币政策决定，委员会可为通胀设定长期目标。 市场普遍将美联储货币政策新框架概述为，取消了针对低利率环境的特殊表述，回归灵活通胀目标制， 并放弃此前的"补偿性"通胀策略。这向市场传递出一个微 ...