2025.08. 25 本文字数：1660，阅读时长大约3分钟 同时，当前数字技术变革等，正在改变货币政策传导机制和场景。如数字技术不断拓宽信用货币使用 范围和传导范式，货币政策的传导速率、时空边界都较过往出现复杂而彻底的改变，这意味着美联储 需基于数字技术的流变特征来调整其货币政策的适应性支持框架。又如去中心化的稳定币等，正在改 变货币的传导媒介和生态，以美元为支撑的稳定币，将抬高美联储跟踪和分析货币在经济社会演进路 径的成本，增加了货币政策对经济社会敏感适应能力的难度。 美联储降息之门正缓缓开启。 作者 | 一财评论员 而且，基于美元的稳定币使部分货币政策功能，比如币值稳定的部分功能正在从美联储向美国财政部 转移，这越发侵蚀美联储对宏观金融全局的把控能力，及决策难度，从而击穿市场对央行货币政策独 立性的传统信仰，毕竟信用货币的价值受国债发行部门的影响更多。 这次美联储货币政策新框架调整，继续保留传统就业与通胀目标的互补性假设前提，这意味着美联储 货币政策新框架在设计机制上，无法割舍掉其赋予委员会相对灵活的自由裁量空间，如委员会打算在 每年1月的年度组织会议上审查这些原则并酌情进行调整等。 在最新的杰克逊霍 ...

美联储降息之门正缓缓开启。 在最新的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上，美联储主席鲍威尔宣布，美联储更新货币政策运行框架。这一新 框架对货币政策追求的充分就业和价格稳定目标做了新阐述，认为充分就业水平无法直接衡量，且随时 间推移变化，为就业设定固定目标是不适合的；价格稳定对健全稳定的经济至关重要，长期通胀率主要 由货币政策决定，委员会可为通胀设定长期目标。 市场普遍将美联储货币政策新框架概述为，取消了针对低利率环境的特殊表述，回归灵活通胀目标制， 并放弃此前的"补偿性"通胀策略。这向市场传递出一个微妙而明确的信息：正在开启的降息是预防性行 为，不要误解为"下坡冲刺式"的激进降息。 这种不得不设定给委员会的自由裁量空间，本质上是一种主观性评估，很难有真正的确定性、稳定性和 可预期性，自然就无法消除美国行政当局与美联储之间就货币政策的观点分歧。而要重塑美联储独立 性，货币政策框架机制设计就需尽可能地减少美联储对货币政策评估的自由裁量权。 美联储正开启的非典型降息，对全球金融市场的影响，可能也将较过往有所变化，这主要是由于当前全 球经贸体系的重塑和重构雏形已显，美联储降息的传导结构，将沿着两个方向演进，一是美国新构建的 经贸 ...

Core Viewpoint - The dual drive of activating consumption potential and optimizing enterprise operational efficiency is essential for consolidating development momentum, requiring both strategic determination from top-level design and practical wisdom from grassroots exploration [1][4]. Group 1: Consumption and Industry Synergy - Under the guidance of new development concepts, China has promoted deep coupling of consumption upgrades and industrial transformation through institutional innovation and technological change, forming a dynamic balance mechanism of demand and supply with Chinese characteristics [2]. - The "old-for-new" policy has seen significant uptake, with 3.225 million applications for vehicle subsidies by May 11, 2025, indicating that fiscal subsidies can stimulate consumption demand while pushing enterprises to enhance supply quality [2]. - E-commerce platforms have significantly contributed to consumption growth, with online retail sales reaching 4.411 trillion yuan in the first four months, a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, demonstrating the effectiveness of digital technology in enhancing supply-demand matching efficiency [2]. Group 2: Digital Transformation in Supply Chain - The digital transformation of the modern circulation system has restructured supply-demand matching models, enhancing the efficiency of dual circulation in agricultural and industrial products through institutional innovation [3]. - The construction of a smart logistics system has reduced operational costs for enterprises while improving consumer experience, thereby supporting consumption upgrades and industrial transformation [3]. - A full-chain collaborative mechanism driven by demand perception, R&D design, flexible production, and precise delivery has been established, enhancing the agility of enterprises in responding to market changes [3]. Group 3: Institutional Innovation for Dual Drive - A comprehensive approach is needed to stimulate consumption, focusing on demand, supply, environment, and policy, with a goal to create a virtuous cycle between consumption demand and production supply [4]. - The optimization of consumption supply structure and the integration of digital technology with traditional industries are crucial for developing new business formats and growth points [4]. - Establishing a unified market access and fair competition mechanism is essential to stimulate the intrinsic motivation of enterprises and promote equal access to various business sectors [4]. Group 4: Financial Support for Real Economy - Addressing financing difficulties for small and medium-sized enterprises through the development of inclusive finance and innovative financing models is critical for optimizing capital allocation [5]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to adopt differentiated credit policies to support advanced manufacturing and strategic emerging industries with long-term financing [5]. - Strengthening financial regulation and establishing a firewall between industrial and financial capital can help mitigate systemic financial risks [6].