美联储货币政策转向不仅影响短期资本流动，更将深刻改变国际货币体系的运行逻辑和全球金融治理的 架构设计。根据国际货币体系演进理论，美元流动性条件的改变将影响新兴市场和发展中经济体的融资 成本和融资渠道，可能推动国际货币体系多元化进程加速。 全球金融体系正迎来一个深刻变革与重构的历史性时刻。美联储于2025年9月18日宣布下调联邦基金利 率，将联邦基金利率目标区间从4.25%至4.50%下调25个基点至4.00%至4.25%，这是美联储2025年以来 首次降息；10月29日，美联储进一步将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到3.75%至4.00%之间，也 是自去年9月开启降息周期以来的第五次降息，本年度累计降幅已达50个基点，不仅标志着其货币政策 周期的重要转折，更意味着全球货币政策协调机制、资本流动格局与金融治理体系将进入新一轮调整与 重塑阶段。这一转变既源于美国国内经济周期演进与结构变迁的内生要求，也是应对全球经济增速放 缓、通胀动态演变与金融环境变化的必然选择。正如习近平总书记所指出的"全球治理体系正处于调整 变革的关键时期，我们要积极参与国际规则制定，做全球治理变革进程的参与者、推动者、引领 者。"在这一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Turkish foreign exchange-protected deposit mechanism (KKM) is set to be phased out, marking a shift towards more market-oriented macroeconomic policies while facing short-term risks to the lira and market uncertainty [1][2][3] Group 1: KKM Mechanism Overview - The KKM was established in response to the lira's significant depreciation in 2021, which saw a 44% decline against the dollar, and allowed individuals and businesses to deposit lira in special accounts with state compensation during currency depreciation [2] - Since its inception, the KKM has incurred costs of approximately $60 billion, stabilizing short-term capital outflows but increasing long-term fiscal pressure [2][3] Group 2: Policy Transition and Market Implications - The Turkish Central Bank announced that KKM accounts will no longer accept new accounts or renewals, indicating a move away from unconventional monetary policies [1][3] - The balance of protected deposits has decreased sharply from a peak of $140 billion to about $7 billion, reflecting a growing confidence in the lira and the new monetary policy framework [2][3] Group 3: Future Challenges and Investor Sentiment - The end of the KKM is expected to lead to increased exchange rate volatility and market fluctuations, with investors needing to manage currency risks in the short term [4][5] - The Turkish government aims to enhance policy credibility and attract capital inflows through tighter monetary policies and improved transparency, despite ongoing challenges such as high inflation and external economic pressures [4][5]

新华财经北京11月10日电（崔凯）日本首相高市早苗的经济顾问会田卓司呼吁日本央行推迟加息，此番 言论再度引发市场对日本政府与央行之间政策协调边界及货币政策独立性的关注。 会田卓司表示，日本央行应避免在12月加息。建议至少推迟至2026年1月再考虑政策调整，以支持当前 仍显脆弱的经济复苏。 会田卓司指出，日本经济在第三季度可能出现萎缩，在家庭实际收入尚未恢复正增长的背景下，加息将 对财政刺激措施形成对冲，增加经济下行风险。他强调，若日本央行确信2026财年经济将实现稳健增 长，则明年1月加息更具可行性。 市场对政策前景高度敏感。目前，投资者焦点集中于日本央行是否会在12月19日或2026年1月采取行 动。 近期，日元持续承压。日本央行10月会议后，美元兑日元一度走弱至154，创2025年2月以来新低。会田 卓司认为，日元在140–150区间总体有利于提升企业竞争力和促进生产回流，但贬值亦推高进口成本， 加剧民众生活负担。 数据显示，日本通胀已连续三年多超过央行2%的目标，而实际工资则连续17个月同比下滑。这种成本 推动型通胀格局，使货币政策制定面临两难。 据市场调查，约半数日本央行观察人士预计12月将加息，而约 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced significant volatility in October, with prices reaching a historical high of $4,381 per ounce before plummeting nearly $600 to around $3,950 within two weeks. As of November 3, spot gold prices had declined for the second consecutive week, settling at $4,002.2 per ounce, yet 50% of retail investors remained bullish on the upcoming week [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Influences - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4.00% was expected to benefit gold prices, but subsequent hawkish comments from Chairman Powell dampened market expectations for further easing [3]. - Historical data shows that since 2000, gold prices have risen on the first trading day after 20 out of 32 rate cuts, but this time the market reacted differently due to concerns over the independence of monetary policy and the sustainability of U.S. fiscal deficits [3]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown and escalating Middle Eastern conflicts were anticipated to enhance gold's safe-haven appeal, yet the market response was contrary, with prices declining during a period of heightened geopolitical risk [5]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives and Central Bank Actions - Bridgewater's founder Ray Dalio suggested that investors allocate about 15% of their assets to gold, indicating a reassessment of gold's value as a wealth preservation tool [5]. - Central bank purchases have become a stable support for the gold market, with global central banks net buying 800 tons of gold in the first three quarters of 2025, and the People's Bank of China increasing its gold holdings for 11 consecutive months [5]. - The World Gold Council projected that global central bank gold purchases would reach a record 1,045 tons in 2024, with emerging market central banks continuing to increase gold's share in their reserves to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar [5]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - From a technical analysis perspective, gold prices are at a critical juncture, having broken below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, with support around $3,930 and resistance between $3,990 and $4,000 [7]. - Market sentiment is divided, with 50% of retail investors predicting a rise in gold prices next week, contrasting with institutional behavior that saw a record outflow of $7.5 billion from gold funds in a single week [7]. - Recent price movements have been characterized as a "technical correction," with the market having been overbought following a parabolic rise, leading to a sharp decline in prices [7]. Group 4: Gold's Evolving Role - Gold's traditional role is being redefined, serving as a hedge against declines in other assets, with a suggested allocation of 50% in portfolios to enhance risk resilience [7]. - The correlation between gold price increases and the cumulative rise in U.S. CPI over the past 20 years stands at 0.72, indicating gold's effectiveness as an inflation hedge [7]. - However, increased volatility in gold prices since 2025, with weekly fluctuations exceeding $80, suggests that while gold remains a safe-haven asset, it also poses volatility risks for ordinary investors [9].

Core Points - The Federal Reserve plans to reduce its banking supervision department staff by 30% by the end of 2026, resulting in approximately 350 employees remaining, down from the previously approved 500 [1] - This layoff plan was announced by Michelle Bowman, the newly appointed Vice Chair for Supervision, during an internal meeting on October 30 [1] - The reduction aims to streamline operations through natural attrition, retirements, and voluntary departure incentives, with specific details to be released in the coming weeks [1] Group 1 - The banking supervision department is responsible for overseeing thousands of bank holding companies and state-chartered member banks, which is a core component of the Federal Reserve's financial stability function [1] - The layoff plan aligns with the overall direction set by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to reduce the agency's workforce by 10% by May 2025, but the cuts in the supervision area are significantly higher [1] Group 2 - Michelle Bowman, appointed by former President Trump in early 2025, is pushing for structural reforms, including streamlining management levels and renaming the operations department to "Business Enablement Group" [2] - The department has recently experienced high-level personnel changes, including the retirement of long-time supervisor Michael Gibson and the departure of his two deputies [2] - The timing of the layoff plan coincides with intensified criticism from senior officials in the Trump administration regarding the Federal Reserve's perceived overreach and bloated structure [2]

Core Insights - The IMF highlights two major factors that could hinder economic growth in Asia: rising interest rates and a strengthening US dollar [1][2] Group 1: Economic Conditions - A strong dollar and rising long-term US Treasury yields may increase overall debt costs in Asian markets, posing challenges for countries that have shown resilience against US tariffs [1] - Low interest rates and a weak dollar have helped Asian markets withstand tariff impacts, allowing governments and businesses to borrow at lower costs [1][3] Group 2: Future Projections - The IMF projects that Asia's economy will grow by 4.5% in 2025, slightly down from 4.6% in the previous year, but up by 0.6 percentage points from earlier forecasts due to strong export growth [2] - The growth forecast for 2026 is expected to further decline to 4.1%, indicating a downward risk for economic growth in Asia [3] Group 3: Monetary Policy - Many Asian countries may need to pursue further monetary easing to bring inflation back to target ranges and anchor inflation expectations [3] - The relative moderation of inflation in Asia compared to other regions suggests that central banks can effectively manage inflation expectations due to public trust in their independence from government interference [3]

Group 1 - The IMF warns that a strong dollar and rising long-term interest rates could challenge the resilience of Asian countries in responding to US tariffs [1][2] - A sustained strong dollar or a significant rise in long-term US Treasury yields may increase the overall debt costs for Asian markets [1][2] - Low interest rates and a weak dollar have helped Asian markets withstand the impact of US tariffs this year [1][2] Group 2 - The IMF projects that the Asian economy will grow by 4.5% in 2025, slightly down from 4.6% last year, but up by 0.6 percentage points from its April forecast due to strong export growth [2] - The IMF warns that the risks to Asian economic growth are skewed to the downside, with a further slowdown expected to 4.1% in 2026 [3] - Many Asian countries may need to pursue further monetary easing to bring inflation back to target ranges and ensure inflation expectations remain anchored [3]

智通财经APP获悉，国际货币基金组织(IMF)的一位高级官员近日在采访中表示，如果美元意外走强叠 加长期利率从低位大幅回升，从而导致全球金融条件收紧，亚洲各国在应对美国关税方面表现出的韧性 可能会遭遇严峻挑战。 这位IMF高级官员表示，美元持续走强或者长期限美债收益率回升可能抬升亚洲市场的整体债务成本。 在金融市场，10年期及以上的美债收益率曲线通常是全球长期限利率的重要参考标的。 "如果美联储继续推进降息进程，随后美元汇率持续走弱，亚洲市场的各大央行便可在不必过于担心资 本外流风险的情况下大幅放松货币政策，以支持本国经济增长。"IMF亚太地区负责人Krishna Srinivasan 在采访中表示。 在IMF看来，低利率与疲弱美元态势在今年迄今帮助亚洲市场承受住特朗普政府的关税冲击，然而美元 走强或者长期限美债收益率大幅回升则可能抬升亚洲债务成本。 低利率以及长期限美债收益率下行也将显著帮助亚洲各国政府和企业以更低成本举债，并且能够承受因 美国关税上调持续带来的经济冲击，Srinivasan表示。 但Srinivasan警告称，这种对于亚洲市场而言非常有利的金融条件可能随时发生变化。 "如果美元大幅升值，也 ...

Group 1 - ADP Research has suspended providing its employment data series to the Federal Reserve, which previously covered about 20% of the private sector employment in the U.S. This suspension is expected to widen the information gap for the Fed ahead of key monetary policy meetings [1] - The Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold a monetary policy meeting on October 28-29, with a strong market consensus anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut. The probability of this rate cut has reached 96.7% according to CME's FedWatch tool [3] - Despite the interruption of key economic indicators, market expectations for a loose monetary policy continue to strengthen, with a recent survey indicating that 115 out of 117 economists expect a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%-4.00% [3] Group 2 - If the rate cut occurs as expected, it may lead to downward pressure on the U.S. dollar, affecting the prices of dollar-denominated assets like gold [4] - A loose monetary environment is likely to provide liquidity support for global risk assets [4] - The ongoing public calls from the White House for larger rate cuts may challenge the independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [4]

来源：滚动播报 美联储穆萨勒姆：货币政策的独立性至关重要，但需要透明度和问责制。 ...