【大摩：若美联储连续降息 日元兑美元未来数月料升值10%】智通财经11月25日电，摩根士丹利表 示，若美联储连续降息，日元兑美元未来数月料升值10%。大摩预测美元兑日元汇率将在2026年第一季 度到达140的水平。 ...

摩根士丹利的策略师表示，如果美联储在美国经济放缓迹象增多的情况下连续降息，日元兑美元在未来 数月内有望升值近10%。包括马修•霍恩巴赫在内的策略师写道，美元/日元目前已脱离公允价值，如果 这种关系回归，美日汇率将在2026年第一季度下跌，因为美国国债收益率下跌可能压低公允价值。他们 指出，"与此同时，日本的财政政策并不特别扩张性"，并预计随着美国经济在明年下半年复苏、利差交 易需求回升，日元将再次面临下行压力。摩根士丹利预计美元/日元将在2026年第一季度下跌至约140， 随后在年底回升至约147。 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. CPI data for September shows a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, which is higher than August's 2.9% but below market expectations, indicating that inflation is not rebounding significantly [1][2] - The labor market in the U.S. continues to weaken, reinforcing the necessity for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - Federal Reserve officials have expressed dovish sentiments, suggesting a likelihood of interest rate cuts in the near future [4] Inflation Data - September's overall CPI rose by 3.0% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, while the core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, also increased by 3.0% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, both figures falling short of market expectations [2] Labor Market Conditions - The non-farm payroll data for September was not released due to the government shutdown, but other indicators show a decline in labor market vitality, necessitating further rate cuts [3] - The ADP report indicated a loss of 32,000 private sector jobs in September, marking the largest decline since March 2023, significantly below the expected increase of 50,000 jobs [3] Federal Reserve Sentiment - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated signs of further cooling in the labor market, which is interpreted as support for additional rate cuts [4] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in October are high, with a probability of 98.3%, while the likelihood of maintaining current rates is only 1.7% [4]