分析来看，白银具有双重特性，既是金融资产，也是光伏电池等清洁能源技术在内的工业投入品。本轮 银价上涨是供需格局失衡、美联储连续降息，以及全球资金集中涌入等因素共同作用的产物。 受到多种因素带动，今年以来国际白银价格不断刷新价格高位。当地时间17日，纽约白银期价突破每盎 司66美元，再创历史新高。 截至当地时间17日收盘，纽商所交投最活跃的明年3月白银期价报每盎司66.901美元，较前一交易日上 涨5.65%，刷新历史纪录。自8月下旬以来，白银价格快速上涨，今年的累计涨幅达到126%，大幅跑赢 黄金价格约60%的涨幅。 世界白银协会的最近报告显示，受全球对电动汽车和人工智能数据中心的投资拉动，工业领域的白银需 求在过去4年增加约18%，而工业用途约占白银总需求的50%。该机构同时预计，今年全球矿山仅能生 产约8.13亿盎司的白银，较2021年产量略低。此外，全球资产大量涌入以白银为支撑的交易所交易产 品，进一步强化银价上涨趋势。目前，多家分析机构已发出警示，尽管银价上涨动能明显，但应该警惕 价格高位震荡以及回调的风险。 来源：央视网 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that if the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates, the Japanese yen is expected to appreciate by 10% against the US dollar in the coming months [1] Summary by Categories Currency Forecast - Morgan Stanley forecasts that the USD/JPY exchange rate will reach 140 by the first quarter of 2026 [1]

摩根士丹利的策略师表示，如果美联储在美国经济放缓迹象增多的情况下连续降息，日元兑美元在未来 数月内有望升值近10%。包括马修•霍恩巴赫在内的策略师写道，美元/日元目前已脱离公允价值，如果 这种关系回归，美日汇率将在2026年第一季度下跌，因为美国国债收益率下跌可能压低公允价值。他们 指出，"与此同时，日本的财政政策并不特别扩张性"，并预计随着美国经济在明年下半年复苏、利差交 易需求回升，日元将再次面临下行压力。摩根士丹利预计美元/日元将在2026年第一季度下跌至约140， 随后在年底回升至约147。 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. CPI data for September shows a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, which is higher than August's 2.9% but below market expectations, indicating that inflation is not rebounding significantly [1][2] - The labor market in the U.S. continues to weaken, reinforcing the necessity for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - Federal Reserve officials have expressed dovish sentiments, suggesting a likelihood of interest rate cuts in the near future [4] Inflation Data - September's overall CPI rose by 3.0% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, while the core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, also increased by 3.0% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, both figures falling short of market expectations [2] Labor Market Conditions - The non-farm payroll data for September was not released due to the government shutdown, but other indicators show a decline in labor market vitality, necessitating further rate cuts [3] - The ADP report indicated a loss of 32,000 private sector jobs in September, marking the largest decline since March 2023, significantly below the expected increase of 50,000 jobs [3] Federal Reserve Sentiment - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated signs of further cooling in the labor market, which is interpreted as support for additional rate cuts [4] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in October are high, with a probability of 98.3%, while the likelihood of maintaining current rates is only 1.7% [4]