美联储鹰派情绪
Search documents
有色冲高回落
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 09:40
Report Title - The report is titled "Futures Research Report - Non-ferrous Metals" [1][2] Report Date - The report is dated November 20, 2025 [5] Core Views Copper - Today, Shanghai copper prices rose first and then fell, with little change in open interest. The short - term market has released the hawkish sentiment towards the Fed, but the US dollar index remains strong above 100, which is negative for non - ferrous metals. Overseas inventories are rising, pressuring copper prices. Attention should be paid to the US non - farm payrolls data tonight. Technically, focus on the support at the 86,000 level [7] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum prices also rose first and then fell, with open interest continuously declining. The overseas US dollar index is strong, and the domestic atmosphere is weakening. As aluminum prices fall, downstream transactions are warming up, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has slightly decreased. On the 20th, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 613,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons from Monday. Technically, focus on the support of the 20 - day moving average [8] Nickel - Shanghai nickel prices decreased with increasing positions, erasing the overnight gains. The domestic market weakened, and non - ferrous metals generally declined. Nickel prices decreased with increasing positions, showing strong downward momentum. As nickel prices fall, the spot premium is gradually strengthening, indicating stronger support at the spot end. Technically, focus on the support at the 115,000 level [9] Industry Dynamics Copper - On November 20, according to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, in October 2025, China's imports of copper scrap and waste reached 196,600 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.81% and a year - on - year increase of 7.35%. The cumulative imports from January to October were 1.8956 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.97% [11] Aluminum - On November 20, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 613,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons from Monday [11] Nickel - On November 20, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 116,000 - 120,400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 118,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 4,000 - 4,200 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 4,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowinning nickel was 0 - 500 yuan/ton [12] Related Charts Copper - The report includes charts on copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper inventory and cancellation warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [13][14][15] Aluminum - There are charts on aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, SHFE - LME ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [26][28][30][32] Nickel - Charts cover nickel basis, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [37][40][43][47]