工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 10 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 点评 节后首日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2511 收于 8640 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.29%，持仓增仓 2165 手至 17.7 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9580 元/ 吨，较上一交易日持稳。最低交割品#421 价格持稳在 8900 元/吨，现 货升水 235 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2511 收于 50765 元/吨，日 内跌幅 0.09%，持仓减仓 2372 手至 84987 手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价 格涨至 52500 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格涨至 52500 元/吨，现货升水 扩至 1700 元/吨。节前下游囤货规模不高，节后硅厂降库压力较大，政 策带盘的效果有限，集中备货型回暖也不具有续航力，节前资金存在 减仓离场动向，工业硅期货逐步止涨，建议观望为主或轻仓短线操 作，关注西南地区减产政策的实际落地情况。多晶硅随着能耗标准公 布，市场计价已充分反映政策预期估值，资金逐步形成回调节奏。关 注终端需求能否承接以及库存能否实质去化，建议投资者需警惕节后 回调风险，做好仓位管理，择机逢高布空。 请务必阅读正文之后 ...

中辉有色观点 | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | | 美国政府停摆、法国总理上任不足一月辞职、日本政治不确定性共同推高了避险情 | | ★★★ | 跳空高开 | 绪。短期沪金或挑战 910 位置，短线追高需要控制节奏仓位。中长期黄金支撑逻辑 | | | | 不变，降息周期开启，地缘重塑，央行买黄金，黄金战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 白银跟随黄金、铜等市场大幅波动，短期情绪高涨。全球政策刺激明显，白银需求 | | 白银 | 跳空高开 | 坚挺，供需缺口明显，白银长期看多逻辑不变。黄金等品种波动会白银盘面波动有 | | ★★ | | 冲击。短线可试多，长线长期持有 | | | | 宏微共振，投机资金涌入铜市，伦铜创年内新高，节后沪铜或跟涨高开。建议铜前 | | 铜 | | 期多单继续持有，新多单等待回调企稳再入场，铜作为中美博弈的重要战略资源和 | | ★★ | 长期持有 | 贵金属的平替资产配置，在铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需求爆发背景下，长期看好。 | | | | 国庆假期，伦锌震荡走强，伦锌库存不足 4 万吨，软挤仓风险 ...

有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 30 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 铜价维持强势运行 核心观点 沪铜 昨夜沪铜增仓上行，主力期价突破今年 3 月高点，日内震荡调 整。自 9 月 24 日自由港发布铜矿减产公告后，铜价增仓上行明显， 资金关注度快速上升，上行动能强。国内即将进入国庆中秋小长 假，注意海外波动风险。 沪铝 今日沪铝震荡下行，持仓量持续下降。上周受铜价大涨影响，铝 价企稳回升，但整体反弹乏力。国内小长假前，电解铝有去库迹象， 给予铝价支撑。宏观宽松，产业旺季供需平衡边际好转。节前资金流 出较为明显，关注节后产业需求状况。 沪镍 今日沪镍震荡下行， ...

跨期套利跟踪 2025/09/30 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -100 -110 -150 -130 理论价差 514 927 1348 1769 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -150 -120 -75 -40 理论价差 213 332 450 569 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -25 -30 -20 -25 理论价差 215 331 446 562 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -215 -185 -165 -150 理论价差 210 317 423 529 镍 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货 月 五月-现货月 价差 0 170 340 620 锡 5-1 价差 1010 理论价差 5645 期现套利跟踪 2025/09/30 铜 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 295 195 理论价差 346 787 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 330 180 理论价差 159 285 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/09/30 国内价格 LME ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No information provided on industry investment ratings Group 2: Core Views - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations. Night - time copper prices rose 0.06%. Although concentrate supply is tight and smelting profits are under pressure, smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Multiple factors are intertwined, and attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2] - Zinc prices may experience short - term wide - range weak fluctuations. Night - time zinc prices rose 0.41%. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally recovered, and smelting profits have turned positive. Short - term supply - demand differences may tilt towards surplus [2] Group 3: Summary by Variety Copper - Night - time copper prices rose 0.06%. Concentrate supply is tight, but smelting output has high growth. The power industry has positive growth, photovoltaic installations increased year - on - year but future growth may slow. Automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate market is weak. The price may have short - term range - bound fluctuations [2] Zinc - Night - time zinc prices rose 0.41%. Zinc concentrate processing fees have increased, smelting profits are positive, and smelting output is expected to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment has a small positive growth rate, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate market is weak. The price may have short - term wide - range weak fluctuations [2] Other Metals - Aluminum: Domestic previous day's futures closing price was 20,685 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 20 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 2,646 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 0.24 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 513,900 tons with no daily change [2] - Nickel: Domestic previous day's futures closing price was 120,730 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 990 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 15,340 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 173.35 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 228,900 tons with an increase of 456 tons [2] - Lead: Domestic previous day's futures closing price was 17,040 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 120 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 1,999 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 42.13 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 221,675 tons with an increase of 1,375 tons [2] - Tin: Domestic previous day's futures closing price was 269,880 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 2,000 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 34,270 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 98.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 2,580 tons with an increase of 75 tons [2]

Group 1 - The Dachen Nonferrous ETF (159980.SZ) has seen a significant increase of 1.87% as of September 25, 2025, with a trading volume of 1.45 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 8.44% [1] - Over the past 14 days, the Dachen Nonferrous ETF has experienced continuous net inflows totaling 291 million yuan, bringing its total size to 1.682 billion yuan and shares to 981 million, both reaching record highs since inception [1] - LME copper prices have surged to a 15-month high, with a single-day increase of 3.2%, marking the largest rise in nearly five months [1] Group 2 - The Grasberg mine in Indonesia has suspended production due to a landslide, leading Freeport to lower its 2026 production guidance by 35%, with potential resumption delayed until 2027, exacerbating global copper supply tensions [2] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points is expected to provide long-term support for copper prices, especially in a constrained supply environment, as it may stimulate inflation expectations [2] - The Dachen Nonferrous ETF is primarily invested in futures of nonferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, lead, tin, zinc, and nickel traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 24 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色震荡运行 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价震荡运行，主力期价围绕 8 万关口震荡，振幅收窄，持 仓量变化不大。宏观层面，国内氛围较好，股指呈现上行，商品涨 多跌少，铜价表现乏力。产业层面，下游节前补库意愿较强，给予 铜价支撑。技术上，关注 8 万关口多空博弈。 沪铝 今日铝价震荡上行，持仓量小幅下降。宏观层面，国内氛围较 好，商品涨多跌少，铝价企稳回升。产业层面，随着期价下挫，下游 补库意愿上升，电解铝社库累库放缓。技术上，关注 60 日均线 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 23 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色震荡下行 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价震荡下行，主力期价跌破 8 万关口，持仓量小幅下降。 宏观层面，今日国内盘面较弱，商品和股指均呈现下行态势。产业 层面，铜价高位下挫叠加双节前备库需求，预计产业补库意愿上 升，进而给予铜价支撑，但就目前来看，现货升贴水处于往年同期 低位，库存并未有去化迹象，可持续关注库存动态。技术上，关注 8 万关口多空博弈。 沪铝 今日铝价偏弱震荡，持仓量持续下降。宏观层面，今日国内盘面 较弱，商品和股指均呈现下行 ...

9月23日，国内期市有色金属板块大面积飘绿，多晶硅主力跌近3%。截止目前，工业硅主力下跌 1.75%，报8975.00元/吨；多晶硅主力下跌2.76%，报50250.00元/吨；氧化铝主力下跌1.12%，报2901.00 元/吨；沪铅主力下跌0.44%，报17085.00元/吨。 | 合约名称 | 开盘价 | 昨收价 | 昨结价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 氧化铝主力 | 2926.00 | 2934.00 | 2934.00 | | 碳酸锂主力 | 73040.00 | 73420.00 | 73780.00 | | 沪铜主力 | 80080.00 | 80160.00 | 80120.00 | | 国际铜主力 | 71080.00 | 71070.00 | 71050.00 | | 沪铝主力 | 20700.00 | 20745.00 | 20770.00 | | 铝合金主力 | 20310.00 | 20340.00 | 20340.00 | | 沪铅主力 | 17190.00 | 17165.00 | 17160.00 | | 沪镍主力 | 121140.00 | 12 ...

1. Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 23, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] 2. Market Review - Futures Market: The Shanghai zinc futures market opened lower and rebounded, with the main contract switching to ZN2511, closing at 22,090 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 0.14%. The trading volume increased, and the open interest rose by 68,581 lots to 130,425 lots. LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 46,825 tons, and the overseas spot premium widened. The domestic processing fee had limited upward momentum, and the SMM zinc concentrate domestic monthly TC was 3,850 yuan/metal ton, while the SMM imported zinc concentrate index rose by 2 US dollars/dry ton to 98.25 US dollars/dry ton. The by - product sulfuric acid price was stable with a slight decline. Due to more smelter overhauls in September and supply shortages in some secondary zinc enterprises, the monthly output was expected to decline by 1 - 20,000 tons to around 600,000 tons, and the supply remained generally loose. On the demand side, the operating rates of galvanizing and zinc oxide increased slightly, but overall consumption in the peak season was not ideal. The inventory was expected to continue to decline this week, and the zinc price would continue to fluctuate between 21,800 - 22,500 yuan [7]. 3. Industry News - On September 22, 2025, the mainstream transaction prices of 0 zinc were concentrated between 19,100 - 22,065 yuan/ton, and different brands had different price ranges and premium/discount situations in different trading periods and regions such as Shanghai, Ningbo, Tianjin, and Guangdong [8][17] 4. Data Overview - There are figures showing the weekly inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots, LME zinc inventory, the price trends of zinc in two markets, and SHFE monthly spreads, with data sources including Wind and SMM, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [11][14]