有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 期货研究报告 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 11 月 24 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 降息预期升温，有色反弹 核心观点 沪铜 今日沪铜主力期价围绕 8.62 万一线窄幅震荡。宏观层面，纽约联 储主席威廉姆斯发表了被市场解读为"鸽派"的讲话，重燃了交易 员对于 12 月可能降息的希望。12 月降息概率再度回升至 70%左右。 铜价受此利好，周五夜盘反弹明显。产业上，海外电解铜库存持续 上升，压制铜价；周一国内电解铜社库呈现去化。技术上，关注 8.6 万关口支撑。 沪铝 今日沪铝偏强震荡。宏观层面，美联储降息预 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Copper**: Last night, the macro - atmosphere weakened, and the copper price dropped below the 86,000 yuan mark. Today, the decline slowed, with the open interest of Shanghai copper continuing to decline, and the main futures price stabilizing around 85,600 yuan. After the US non - farm payrolls data was released last night, the US stocks opened high and closed low with a significant decline, and the Asian market continued the downward trend today. In the industry, as the copper price fell, spot transactions improved, and the social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased slightly. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 85,500 yuan level [5]. - **Aluminum**: Today, Shanghai aluminum significantly decreased with a reduction in positions, and the main futures price fell below the 21,500 yuan mark. Last night, the overseas macro - atmosphere weakened, and the domestic market continued the downturn. In the industry, as the aluminum price weakened, downstream transactions improved, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 40 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel fluctuated downward, with little change in open interest, and the main futures price fell below the 115,000 yuan mark. Last night, the overseas macro - atmosphere weakened, and the domestic market continued the decline. As the nickel price dropped, the spot premium gradually strengthened, indicating stronger support in the spot market. Technically, the main futures price breaking below the 115,000 yuan mark has strong downward momentum [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On November 21st, the weekly SMM copper cable operating rate increased by 1.32 percentage points. As the copper price fell below 86,000 yuan/ton, orders rebounded, but some enterprises were still observing. The demand for automotive wiring harnesses was good. SMM expected a slight increase in the operating rate next week as enterprises would increase production for the end - of - November rush [9]. - **Aluminum**: On November 20th, the Mysteel electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 613,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons from Monday [10]. - **Nickel**: On November 21st, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 114,400 - 119,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 116,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 4,000 - 4,400 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 4,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel spot premium and discount quotation range was 0 - 500 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: Relevant charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [12][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: Related charts are aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), SHFE - LME ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: Relevant charts cover nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [37][43][39].

| | 操作评级 | 2025年11月20日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | ★☆☆ | | | | | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | なな女 | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 ★☆☆ | | | | 锌 | な☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 错 | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | な☆☆ | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 镇及不锈钢 ☆☆☆ | | | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | F03099436 Z0021022 | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | ななな | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业培 | な女女 | | | 多晶硅 | な女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周四沪铜减仓阴线震荡。SMM现铜报86435元，沪粤升水80、55元，周内SMM社库增加700吨在19.45万吨。晚间等 待美 ...

Report Title - The report is titled "Futures Research Report - Non-ferrous Metals" [1][2] Report Date - The report is dated November 20, 2025 [5] Core Views Copper - Today, Shanghai copper prices rose first and then fell, with little change in open interest. The short - term market has released the hawkish sentiment towards the Fed, but the US dollar index remains strong above 100, which is negative for non - ferrous metals. Overseas inventories are rising, pressuring copper prices. Attention should be paid to the US non - farm payrolls data tonight. Technically, focus on the support at the 86,000 level [7] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum prices also rose first and then fell, with open interest continuously declining. The overseas US dollar index is strong, and the domestic atmosphere is weakening. As aluminum prices fall, downstream transactions are warming up, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has slightly decreased. On the 20th, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 613,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons from Monday. Technically, focus on the support of the 20 - day moving average [8] Nickel - Shanghai nickel prices decreased with increasing positions, erasing the overnight gains. The domestic market weakened, and non - ferrous metals generally declined. Nickel prices decreased with increasing positions, showing strong downward momentum. As nickel prices fall, the spot premium is gradually strengthening, indicating stronger support at the spot end. Technically, focus on the support at the 115,000 level [9] Industry Dynamics Copper - On November 20, according to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, in October 2025, China's imports of copper scrap and waste reached 196,600 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.81% and a year - on - year increase of 7.35%. The cumulative imports from January to October were 1.8956 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.97% [11] Aluminum - On November 20, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 613,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons from Monday [11] Nickel - On November 20, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 116,000 - 120,400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 118,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 4,000 - 4,200 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 4,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowinning nickel was 0 - 500 yuan/ton [12] Related Charts Copper - The report includes charts on copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper inventory and cancellation warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [13][14][15] Aluminum - There are charts on aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, SHFE - LME ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [26][28][30][32] Nickel - Charts cover nickel basis, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [37][40][43][47]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was found in the provided text. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated weakly, with domestic refined copper spot imports remaining at a loss. The market has reduced its bets on a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Fundamentally, downstream acceptance of high copper prices has increased, and demand is slowly recovering. However, the instability of domestic and international stock markets has dampened confidence in a significant rise in copper prices. The overall global visible inventory is still in a state of accumulation, approaching recent high levels, and the high copper prices have shown a suppressive effect on terminal copper use. Without unexpected events, copper prices are expected to show a high - level oscillating trend, with volatility likely to remain at a low level [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina and Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly, while aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. The alumina futures market has shown a narrow - range correction. With the improvement of the macro - sentiment, the market has been driven by long - position funds. However, due to fundamental support and environmental protection restrictions in the north, high prices have a significant suppressive effect on demand. Aluminum ingot destocking has been continuously hindered, and the proportion of molten aluminum has continued to decline. Aluminum prices continue to be strong but face resistance when rising. Aluminum alloy has more upward momentum, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum is expected to narrow [2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel fell slightly, while Shanghai nickel rose. In terms of inventory, both LME and SHFE inventories decreased. The nickel - iron to stainless - steel industrial chain is showing a weakening trend, with the stainless - steel market being sluggish. In the new energy industrial chain, the raw material supply is tight, but the production of ternary precursors in November decreased month - on - month. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is becoming apparent, and nickel prices are still running weakly, but attention should be paid to macro - disturbances and overseas industrial policy adjustments [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Copper**: The US Department of Labor will not release the October non - farm payroll report, and the November report will be postponed. The Fed is divided on a December interest rate cut but almost unanimously agrees to end balance - sheet reduction. Copper demand is slowly recovering, but inventory accumulation and high prices may restrict future price increases. Without unexpected events, copper prices will oscillate at a high level with low volatility [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy have different trends. The alumina futures market has a narrow - range correction. The macro - sentiment is warming, but high prices suppress demand. Aluminum ingot destocking is difficult, and the proportion of molten aluminum is decreasing. Aluminum alloy has more upward momentum [2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel fell slightly, and Shanghai nickel rose. Inventory decreased, the nickel - iron to stainless - steel industrial chain is weak, and the new energy industrial chain has raw material supply tightness. Primary nickel inventory pressure is high, and nickel prices are weak [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On November 19, 2025, the price of flat - water copper increased by 115 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2522 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.3 million tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: On November 19, 2025, the Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices increased. SHFE total inventory increased by 1564 tons, and electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 2.5 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: On November 19, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 750 yuan/ton. SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 793 tons, and social nickel inventory increased by 3981 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: On November 19, 2025, the main settlement price increased by 0.3%. LME inventory remained unchanged, and social inventory increased by 0.13 million tons [6]. - **Tin**: On November 19, 2025, the main settlement price increased by 0.8%. SHFE inventory increased by 266 tons [6]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium and Discount**: There are charts showing the spot premium and discount trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][11]. - **SHFE Near - and Far - Month Spread**: There are charts showing the near - and far - month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][22]. - **LME Inventory**: There are charts showing the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: There are charts showing the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [30][32][34]. - **Social Inventory**: There are charts showing the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series steel from 2019 - 2025 [36][38][40]. - **Smelting Profit**: There are charts showing the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47]. 4. Introduction of the Non - Ferrous Metals Team - Zhan Dapeng: A master of science, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a junior investment analyst of gold, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [50]. - Wang Heng: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [50]. - Zhu Xi: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [51].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Likely to be strong [2] - Zinc: Likely to fluctuate within a range [2] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper: Night trading saw a rise in copper prices. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Grid investment maintains positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales show positive growth, home appliance production scheduling shows negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. An Indonesian mine accident is likely to lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for copper prices. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2] - Zinc: Night trading saw a decline in zinc prices. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and concentrate supply is temporarily tight, but smelting output continues to grow. Galvanized sheet inventories are generally at a high level. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales show positive growth, home appliance production shows negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, and it is likely to fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Copper - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 86,080 yuan/ton; domestic basis: 50 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 10,803 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: - 33.13 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 140,500 tons; LME inventory daily change: 4,450 tons [2] Aluminum - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 21,525 yuan/ton; domestic basis: - 20 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 2,815 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: - 32.88 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 548,075 tons; LME inventory daily change: - 2,125 tons [2] Zinc - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 22,420 yuan/ton; domestic basis: 75 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 2,990 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: 152.14 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 43,525 tons; LME inventory daily change: 3,550 tons [2] Nickel - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 115,650 yuan/ton; domestic basis: - 3,120 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 14,640 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: - 197.66 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 257,832 tons; LME inventory daily change: 138 tons [2] Lead - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 17,230 yuan/ton; domestic basis: - 140 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 2,015 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: - 27.39 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 264,800 tons; LME inventory daily change: - 1,325 tons [2] Tin - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 293,370 yuan/ton; domestic basis: - 1,950 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 36,945 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: 100.00 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 3,055 tons; LME inventory daily change: 0 tons [2]

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 11 月 19 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色反弹 核心观点 沪铜 今日沪铜偏强震荡，持仓量小幅上升，主力期价站上 8.6 万关 口。宏观层面，盘面有所回暖，贵金属反弹明显，有色也呈现反弹 态势。短期市场对美联储鹰派的情绪有所释放，市场或迎来情绪上 的修复。技术上，关注 8.6 万关口支撑。 沪铝 今日沪铝减仓反弹。宏观层面，盘面有所回暖，贵金属反弹明 显，有色也呈现反弹态势。短期市场对美联储鹰派的情绪有所释放， 市场或迎来情绪上的修复。产业层面，随着铝价下跌，成 ...

20251118申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 摘要 | 铜： 可能偏强 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 锌： 可能区间波动 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收低。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，但冶 炼产量延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电网投资延续正增长，电源投资 | | | 铜 | 放缓；汽车产销正增长；家电排产负增长；地产持续疲弱。印尼矿难大概率 | 可能偏强 | | | 导致全球铜供求转向缺口，长期支撑铜价。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需 | | | | 求等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收低。锌精矿加工费回落，精矿供应阶段性紧张，但冶炼产量 | | | | 延续增长。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存总体高位。基建投资累计增速趋缓，汽 | 可能区间波 | | 锌 | 车产销正增长；家电产量负增长；地产持续疲弱。锌供求总体差异不明显， | 动 | | | 总体可能区间波动。建议关注美元、冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | | | | 分析师：李野 | | | | 从业资格号：F0285557 | | | | 交易咨询号：Z0002369 | | ...

| | 操作评级 | 2025年11月17日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | な女女 | 肖静 首席分析师 | | 铝 | ななな | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 氧化铝 | なな女 | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 锌 | ☆☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 铝 | な女女 | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 镇及不锈钢 立☆☆ | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 碳酸锂 | ★☆☆ | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 工业硅 | ななな | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 多晶硅 | 女女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周四沪铜震荡回7.7万，今日现铜76440元，平水铜咯微贴水85元。SMM社库增加200吨至21.96万吨。隔夜美联储 褐皮书显示通胀持续放缓,强化联储下次25个基点降息的预期,多地联储表示制造业活动下降。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a slight bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, representing a clear bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends and poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆, with a slight bearish bias and limited operability [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, showing a clear bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term balance and poor operability [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★, representing a clear bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, with a slight bearish bias and limited operability [1] Core Views - The market is affected by various factors such as government policies, economic data, and supply - demand relationships. Different metals show different trends and investment opportunities [1][2][3][4][5] Summary by Metal Copper - The Shanghai copper market rebounded this week, but both domestic and foreign copper prices faced resistance at 88,000 yuan and $11,000. The US government ended the shutdown, and the market focused on economic growth. Short - term short positions can be traded against 88,000 yuan, and the copper price is in a volatile state [1] Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum price fell from a high. The short - term fundamentals are stable, and the inventory and spot performance are neutral. The downstream procurement weakened, and the fundamentals deteriorated. The price is under pressure near 17,800 yuan/ton. The consumption expectation may improve in the short term, but the support for high prices is insufficient. Alumina is in a state of oversupply and is weakly operating [2][3] Zinc - The Fed officials' hawkish remarks led to a decline in the zinc price. The LME zinc inventory increased slightly, and the SMM zinc social inventory decreased. The domestic smelter profit is under pressure, and some smelters have cut production. The support for the decline of Shanghai zinc is seen at the 20 - day moving average [2] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The decline of Shanghai nickel accelerated. The nickel industry chain is in an overall over - supply situation. The mainstream stainless steel mills cancelled the price limit and lowered the price. The market is sluggish, and the nickel price is weakly operating [4] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price is in a high - level shock. The downstream battery orders increased, and the total inventory decreased. The ore price strengthened again. It is expected to be in a slightly strong shock in the short term [5] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures weakened slightly. The supply decreased during the dry season in the southwest, but the demand was dragged down. The short - term market is under pressure at a high level and continues to fluctuate [5] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures rose slightly, and the trading volume decreased. The photovoltaic terminal demand is weak, and the supply - demand improvement is limited. The market is driven by policy expectations and continues to fluctuate in the short term [5] Tin - The Shanghai tin price gave back yesterday's gains. The market follows the sector sentiment, and the mid - long - term short positions can be held against 295,000 yuan [4]