20260305申万期货有色金属基差日报 分析师：李野 从业资格号：F0285557 交易咨询号：Z0002369 邮箱：liye@sywgqh.com.cn 电话：021-50586241 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确 地反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 | 品种 | 观点 | | --- | --- | | 铜 | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨0.04%。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，冶炼产量虽 环比回落，但总体延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电力投资稳定；汽车产销正增长； 家电排产负增长；地产持续疲弱。铜价短期可能区间波动。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和旺季 | | | ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2026 年 3 月 3 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价震荡回落。宏观方面，美伊冲突突发下引起市场动荡，涉及中东局势及霍 | | | 尔木兹海峡要道，市场恐慌情绪与通胀预期并行，同步影响全球金融市场。库存方面， | | | LME 库存增加 3975 吨至 257675 吨；SHFE 铜仓单增加 5287 吨至 295881 吨。需求方面， | | | 关注节后下游开工情况。短期来看宏观风险与基本面承压并存，内外库存均超预期累积 | | 铜 | 或触发市场对前期供需预期的修正，且当前下游采购情绪仍处偏弱区间，价格向上驱动 | | | 面临较大考验，铜价或仍存在二次回调风险。但危中寻机，当金融市场已基本定价风险， | | | 当内外累库趋于结束，在中美释放积极信号的宏观大环境下，市场或再次进入风险偏好 | | | 回升阶段，策略上维系逢低布局策略。 | | | 隔夜氧化铝震荡偏强，隔夜 AO2605 收于 2764 元/吨，涨幅 0.22%，持仓减仓 4083 手至 | | | 34 万手。沪铝震荡偏强，隔夜 AL260 ...

有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年03月02日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 【交易策略】铜当前基本面处于阶段性弱势，对价格上行驱动不明 显。当前铜价主导因素仍是宏观逻辑，叠加地缘政治冲突造成的风 险溢价，以及自身相较黄金白银的估值修复。随着金银市场重拾升 势，国内下游需求逐步回归，铜价有望结束盘整，再度走强。下游 需求端建议积 ...

| | 操作评级 | 2026年02月26日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | 女女女 | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | な☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | な女女 | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | | | 锌 | なな女 | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 铝 | な女女 | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 镇及不锈钢 ☆☆☆ | | | | 锡 | 女女女 | F03099436 Z0021022 | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | な女女 | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业培 | ななな | | | 多晶硅 | 女女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周四沪铜盘中延续震荡,且交投稳定在密集均线上方。国内SMM铜社库继续增加2.32万吨至53.17万吨。SMM现铜 报101795元,上海铜贴水扩至235元,精 ...

铜：宏观缺乏指引，铜价高位震荡 周三晚沪铜主力震荡收涨于103040元，伦铜运行至约13350美金附近。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 宏观中性。特朗普国情咨文表态指引性不强，海外隔夜消息面清淡，市场风险偏好改善，美元温和走软提振铜价。 基本面中性偏空。昨日上期所铜仓单增加10717吨至28.7万吨，国内现货贴水承压走跌至-200元左右，LME铜累库6475吨至24.96万吨。 总体来看，国内下游复工与国内政策预期对铜价具备提振，不过海外宏观缺乏指引，同时关税摩擦与地缘扰动仍存，预计短期铜价高位宽幅震荡为主。今日 沪铜主力运行参考10.2万-10.4万元/吨。策略上，日内区间为主，中长线逢低布局远月多单。 重要声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，中信建投期货力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构 成个人投资建议，也没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。（虞璐 彦/Z0023596，仅供参考） 铝：隔夜氧化铝期货小幅上涨，近期新疆铝厂常规招标万吨现货氧化铝 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price rose 0.34% overnight. The supply of concentrate remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output has declined month - on - month, it continues to grow at a high rate. Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is negative, and the real estate market is weak. The copper price may enter an adjustment phase in the short term [2]. - The zinc price fell 0.55% overnight. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and the supply of concentrate is temporarily tight. Smelting output continues to grow. The inventory of galvanized sheets is generally high. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is negative, and the real estate market is weak. The zinc price may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals [2]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table Copper - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 101,210 yuan/ton - Domestic basis: - 150 yuan/ton - Previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price: 13,195 dollars/ton - LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M): - 85.04 dollars/ton - LME inventory: 241,825 tons - LME inventory daily change: 6,675 tons [2] Aluminum - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 23,450 yuan/ton - Domestic basis: - 160 yuan/ton - Previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price: 3,111 dollars/ton - LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M): - 23.62 dollars/ton - LME inventory: 473,550 tons - LME inventory daily change: - 2,000 tons [2] Zinc - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 24,630 yuan/ton - Domestic basis: - 25 yuan/ton - Previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price: 3,388 dollars/ton - LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M): - 31.25 dollars/ton - LME inventory: 101,550 tons - LME inventory daily change: - 25 tons [2] Nickel - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 137,500 yuan/ton - Domestic basis: - 5,500 yuan/ton - Previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price: 17,915 dollars/ton - LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M): - 201.05 dollars/ton - LME inventory: 287,706 tons - LME inventory daily change: 0 tons [2] Lead - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 16,795 yuan/ton - Domestic basis: - 125 yuan/ton - Previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price: 1,960 dollars/ton - LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M): - 46.44 dollars/ton - LME inventory: 286,325 tons - LME inventory daily change: - 800 tons [2] Tin - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 384,450 yuan/ton - Domestic basis: 2,010 yuan/ton - Previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price: 50,300 dollars/ton - LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M): - 43.00 dollars/ton - LME inventory: 7,675 tons - LME inventory daily change: 15 tons [2]

期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 24 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色节后偏强运行 核心观点 沪铜 春节后第一个交易日，铜价呈现冲高回落态势，主力期价一度站 上 10.2 万关口，沪铜持仓量日内持续上升。宏观层面，海外美伊局 势紧张，美国关税扰动，市场风险偏好较低；国内节后流动性恢复 明显，给予铜价支撑。产业层面，节后下游逐步开工，产业支撑或 持续上升。持续关注国内库存以及下游补库需求。 沪铝 春节后第一个交易日，铝价高开后震荡运行，主力期价在 2.36 万 上方震荡运行，沪铝持仓量持续上 ...

20260224申万期货有色金属基差日报 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确 地反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 | 品种 | 观点 | | --- | --- | | 铜 | 铜：春节假期LME铜价变化有限。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，冶炼 产量虽环比回落，但总体延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电力投资稳定；汽车产销正 增长；家电排产负增长；地产持续疲弱。铜价短期可能进入调整阶段。关注美元、铜冶炼 | | | 产量和下游需求等变化。 | | 锌 | 锌：春节假期LME锌价变化有限。锌精矿加工费回落，精矿供应阶段性紧张，冶炼产量延 续增长。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存总体高位。基建投资累计增速趋缓，汽 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: On the last trading day before the Spring Festival, the main contract price of Shanghai copper oscillated around the 100,000 mark, and the trading volume decreased slightly. Macroscopically, the US stock market declined overseas, and domestic liquidity was poor approaching the Spring Festival. Industrially, most downstream enterprises had taken holidays approaching the Spring Festival, resulting in dull trading [7]. - **沪铝**: On the last trading day before the Spring Festival, Shanghai aluminum decreased in price with a reduction in positions, and the main contract price dropped back to the 23,000 mark. Macroscopically, both domestic and overseas liquidity was poor, and the capital driving force was weak. Industrially, domestic electrolytic aluminum continued to accumulate stocks seasonally. Technically, the aluminum price tested the 23,000 mark three times in February, showing strong technical support [8]. - **沪镍**: On the last trading day before the Spring Festival, Shanghai nickel oscillated weakly, with a continuous decline in positions. The main contract price rebounded at the end of the session and regained the 135,000 mark. Macroscopically, both domestic and overseas liquidity was poor, and the capital driving force was weak. Industrially, on February 10, the Indonesian government announced that the production target for nickel ore in 2026 was set between 260 and 270 million tons. The positive news on the supply side largely made the nickel price stronger than the non - ferrous metal sector in the short term. However, the non - ferrous metal sector declined last night driven by precious metals, and the nickel price followed suit. In the short term, with macro - level negative factors and industry - level positive factors, the nickel price will oscillate [9]. 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: From February 6th to February 12th, the raw material inventory of SMM copper cable enterprises decreased by 3.37% week - on - week as the pre - festival stocking was basically completed and upstream suppliers gradually took holidays. On the finished product side, enterprises moderately stocked up for post - festival demand, but the stocking mentality was cautious due to the uncertainty of the copper price after the Spring Festival, and there was no large - scale inventory build - up. The operating rate of the domestic refined copper rod industry decreased by 12.43 percentage points week - on - week, and SMM expected it to drop by 43.56 percentage points to 13.08% week - on - week due to enterprises taking holidays next week [11]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts on copper spot premium/discount, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, SHFE warrant inventory, and month - to - month spread of Shanghai copper [12][13][17]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum month - to - month spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, SHFE - LME ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [24][26][32]. - **Nickel**: The report presents charts on nickel basis, nickel month - to - month spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel price trend, and nickel ore port inventory [36][38][40].

Inventory Changes - Copper inventory increased by 23,564 tons or 9.5%, reaching 272,475 tons, the highest since August 9, 2024 [2] - Aluminum inventory rose by 52,200 tons or 21.3%, totaling 297,340 tons [2] - Zinc inventory grew by 16,336 tons or 23.1%, amounting to 87,025 tons [2] - Nickel inventory increased by 1,318 tons or 2.3%, reaching 58,775 tons [2] - Lead inventory rose by 8,715 tons or 18.2%, totaling 56,539 tons [2] - Tin inventory increased by 2,264 tons or 25.9%, reaching 11,014 tons [2] - Alumina inventory rose by 57,902 tons or 18.8%, totaling 366,689 tons [2] - Cast aluminum alloy inventory decreased by 1,690 tons or 2.3%, reaching 72,735 tons [3] - International copper inventory increased by 2,277 tons or 12.4%, totaling 20,625 tons [4] Industry Challenges - The Chinese copper industry faces three main challenges: rising dependence on foreign upstream resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and downstream demand being suppressed by high copper prices [5]