有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 25 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 海外宏观回暖，铜价强势运行 核心观点 沪铜 上周五夜盘铜价增仓上行，今日铜维持强势运行，尾盘拉升，主 力期价接近 8 万关口。宏观层面，北京时间 22 日 22 时杰克逊霍尔会 议上美联储主席鲍威尔发言偏鸽，市场风险偏好明显回升，美元指 数下挫，利好铜价。产业端，国内临近旺季，电解铜社库呈现去 化，产业支撑增强。预计铜价维持强势运行，关注 8 万关口多空博 弈。 沪铝 上周五夜盘铝价呈现上行趋势，今日铝价维持震荡运行。宏观层 面，海外降息 ...

中辉有色观点 金银：鲍威尔释放利好，金银上涨 | | | 资料来源：Wind，中辉期货 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 鲍威尔讲话超预期，市场上涨，但是短期也缺乏向上的集中性风险事件爆发，中长 | | | 反弹做多 | 期，主要国家货币政策宽松，央行继续买黄金，地缘格局重塑，黄金有资产配置需 | | ★ | | 求。长期黄金继续战略配置。 | | 白银 | | 情绪积极，白银跟随上涨。美国财政货币双宽政策积极，中长期全球流动性和各国 | | ★ | 反弹做多 | 再工业化需求坚挺，供给端增量有限，白银向上趋势不变。由于弹性大，噪音影响 明显。短期关注前高 9500 附近表现。 | | | | 鲍威尔超预期放鸽，美元走弱铜价反弹，短期建议铜多单持有，中长期，铜作为中 | | 铜 ★ | 多单持有 | 美博弈的重要战略资源，铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需求爆发，对铜长期看好。 | | | | 隔夜受宏观和板块情绪影响，锌止跌反弹，但需求淡季，锌精矿供应增加，下游需 | | 锌 | 反弹 | 求疲软，锌上方空间或有限，关注上方缺口回补情况。中长期看锌供增需减 ...

【锌】 沪锌回踩前低,下游逢低采买情绪好转,SMM锌社库咯降至13.29万吨,空头少量止盈,对价格形成支撑。消费 淡季叠加部分地区下游减产影响,基本面供增需弱格局不改。"金九银十"旺季临近,政策面存乐观预期，短 期震荡看待,中线维持反弹空配思路。近期资金僵持,期权IV极低,暂观望,等待合适的空头位置。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 | | 操作评级 | 2025年08月22日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | ななな | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | ななな | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | | | 锌 | な☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 错 | な女女 | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 镇及不锈钢 ★☆☆ | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | な女女 | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业培 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fluctuated with a slight upward trend, and the domestic spot import window remained open. US economic data reduced market bets on consecutive Fed rate cuts, and Trump's claim of a US - EU trade deal is beneficial for reducing the US trade deficit. LME copper inventory remained stable, Comex inventory increased, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased. As the seasonal off - season nears its end, downstream orders are expected to pick up, and the low scrap copper开工 rate is conducive to refined copper substitution. The copper market is in a balanced state between bulls and bears, waiting for external factors to break the current oscillation [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated with a slight upward trend. The fundamental support for alumina weakened, but short - term deep declines are limited. As the "Golden September" peak season approaches, the pressure from short - sellers may ease. The increase in aluminum ingot casting volume and early restocking by some end - user sectors have led to an uneven inventory build - up. Electrolytic aluminum continues to follow a "time - for - space" rhythm [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined. LME and domestic SHFE nickel inventories increased. The cost support for stainless steel remains, and the nickel iron transaction price center has shifted upward. Overall, the nickel market fundamentals have changed little and are in an oscillatory state [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: The US 8 - month Markit composite PMI initial value was 55.4, the manufacturing PMI initial value was 53.3, and the service PMI initial value was 55.4. LME copper inventory was 156,350 tons, Comex inventory increased by 1,052 tons to 246,480 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 66 tons to 25,157 tons, and BC copper decreased by 599 tons to 6,125 tons [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, AO2601 closed at 3,151 yuan/ton with a 0.06% increase, AL2510 closed at 20,720 yuan/ton with a 0.58% increase, and AD2511 closed at 20,230 yuan/ton with a 0.52% increase. The SMM alumina price dropped to 3,244 yuan/ton, and the aluminum ingot spot was at a premium of 0 - 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.7% to 14,940 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.36% to 119,760 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 252 tons to 209,598 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 29 tons to 22,588 tons [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On August 21, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 78,760 yuan/ton, and the premium was 120 yuan/ton. The 1 bright scrap copper price in Guangdong remained at 73,100 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory remained unchanged at 156,350 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 66 tons to 25,157 tons, and the total domestic + bonded area social inventory increased by 0.8 million tons to 21.8 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 16,740 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous day. LME lead inventory decreased by 1,500 tons to 279,600 tons, and SHFE lead warehouse receipts decreased by 1,481 tons to 59,422 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi aluminum price was 20,720 yuan/ton, and the Nanhai price was 20,630 yuan/ton. LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 479,525 tons, SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 3,048 tons to 59,890 tons, and the alumina social inventory decreased by 2.2 million tons to 6.7 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel plate was 122,350 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous day. LME nickel inventory increased by 252 tons to 209,598 tons, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 29 tons to 22,588 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main contract settlement price was 22,285 yuan/ton, up 0.3%. LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,875 tons to 69,375 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.24 million tons to 11.74 million tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main contract settlement price was 267,650 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. LME tin inventory increased by 25 tons to 1,740 tons, and SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased by 71 tons to 7,258 tons [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][14]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][19][20]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [22][24][26]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventories of copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and 304 stainless steel smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, and an outstanding metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange. He has over a decade of commodity research experience and has published dozens of professional articles [49]. - **Wang Heng**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [49]. - **Zhu Xi**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel [50].

研究局限性和风险提示 20250822申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 摘要 | 铜： 可能短期区间波动 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位，考验冶炼产量。根据国家统 计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续正增长；汽车产 | 可能短期区 | | 铜 | 销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。多空因素交织，铜价可能区 | 间波动 | | | 间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因素变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 | | | 锌 | 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。今 | 可能短期宽 | | | 年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复。短期锌价可能宽幅波动，关注美 | 幅波动 | | | 国关税进展，以及美元、锌冶炼和家电产量等因素变化。 | | | | 分析师：李野 | | | | 从业资格号：F0285557 | | | | 交易咨询号：Z000236 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ななな [1] - Alumina: な☆☆ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: 文文文 [1] - Zinc: ななな [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ななな [1] - Industrial Silicon: ななな [1] - Polysilicon: な☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall copper market is still cautiously assessing economic growth risks and paying attention to the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting this week. Hold short positions in Shanghai copper above 79,000 [2]. - Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The peak of inventory accumulation in the off - season may be approaching, and the inventory is likely to be at a low level this year [3]. - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, with supply surplus gradually emerging, and it will be in a weak and volatile state [3]. - Shanghai zinc is expected to rebound under pressure. In the short - term, it will stop falling and fluctuate, and in the medium - term, the idea of short - selling on rebounds is maintained [4]. - For nickel, it is in the middle and later stages of the rebound, and it is advisable to actively enter short positions [7]. - Shanghai tin has a tight fundamental situation, but is also affected by demand concerns. Hold short - term long positions based on the MA60 moving average [8]. - The lithium carbonate futures price shows a strong trend, and it is expected to fluctuate. Risk control should be done well [9]. - The industrial silicon futures price is expected to fluctuate, and there may be a callback risk if the policy expectation falls later [10]. - The polysilicon futures market is in a volatile adjustment situation where "policy logic is more important than fundamental logic" [11]. Summary by Metal Copper - Shanghai copper fluctuated on Wednesday, and the short positions above 79,000 in the main contract are held. The physical copper price in Shanghai is 78,770 yuan with a premium of 190 yuan. The refined - scrap price difference is within 1,000 yuan. The US government included hundreds of end - products with high steel and aluminum content in the 50% tariff list [2]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated, and the spot in East China was at par. The downstream start - up is stable, and the peak of inventory accumulation in the off - season may be approaching. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry is poor. The alumina supply surplus is emerging, and the inventory and warehouse receipts are rising [3]. Zinc - In July, the import of zinc concentrates increased by 51.9% month - on - month to 501,400 physical tons, while the import of refined zinc decreased by 50.35% month - on - month to 17,900 tons. The short - term zinc price stops falling and fluctuates, and the medium - term is short - sold on rebounds [4]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel is in the middle and later stages of the rebound, and short positions should be actively entered. The social inventory of stainless steel has decreased for 6 consecutive times, but the downstream acceptance of high - price stainless steel is poor, and the supply is expected to increase [7]. Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated with reduced positions. The fundamentals are tight, with a decrease in domestic tin concentrate imports in July and low - level customs clearance of Myanmar ore. The short - term long positions are held based on the MA60 moving average [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price is volatile. The market is focused on the expectation after the shutdown of sub - standard enterprises for the 930 deadline. The fundamentals have limited guidance on the price [9]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price fluctuates. The market sentiment cooled after the photovoltaic conference, but there is still a policy support expectation. The fundamentals have limited improvement, and the price in Xinjiang has decreased [10]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures price fluctuates. The market is in a situation where "policy logic is more important than fundamental logic", with a resistance level at the previous high of 53,000 yuan/ton and a support level at about 48,000 yuan/ton [11].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations. Multiple factors are at play, with low concentrate processing fees testing smelting output, while downstream demand shows a mixed picture. Attention should be paid to US tariff progress, the US dollar, copper smelting, and household appliance production [2]. - Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range fluctuations. Concentrate processing fees are rising, and this year's concentrate supply has improved significantly. Domestic demand is also a mix of positive and negative factors, and the same external factors need to be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - session copper prices closed lower. Current concentrate processing fees are generally at a low level, challenging smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, with power and automobile industries growing, household appliance output growth slowing, and the real estate sector remaining weak. Copper prices may fluctuate within a range [2]. - The previous domestic futures closing price was 78,950 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of 170 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month closing price was 9,733 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 96.75 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 155,800 tons, with a daily change of - 50 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed lower. Concentrate processing fees have been rising recently. Domestic automobile production and sales are growing, infrastructure is growing steadily, household appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak. This year's concentrate supply has improved significantly, and smelting supply may recover. Zinc prices may have wide - range short - term fluctuations [2]. - The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,340 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 65 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,777 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 8.65 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 76,325 tons, with a daily change of - 1,125 tons [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,600 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 20 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,589 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 0.05 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 479,550 tons, with a daily change of - 125 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 120,340 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 1,270 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,151 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 194.65 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 211,662 tons, with a daily change of 522 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 16,775 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 155 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,971 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 44.00 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 261,100 tons, with a daily change of - 575 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 267,020 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 420 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month closing price was 33,702 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 89.00 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 1,655 tons, with a daily change of - 175 tons [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Copper**: Today, copper prices oscillated weakly, with the main contract closing below 79,000. The 9 - 10 spread increased. Domestically, the atmosphere is positive with rising stock indices, while overseas, the improving US - Russia relations maintain high market risk appetite. It's the off - season in China, and the social inventory of electrolytic copper increased by 11,800 tons on Monday compared to last Thursday. With macro - level benefits and weak industrial reality, the futures price will oscillate [5]. - **Aluminum**: Today, Shanghai aluminum dropped sharply in the morning and rebounded slightly in the afternoon, showing overall weak performance with decreasing positions. The non - ferrous sector oscillated weakly. Upstream bauxite port inventory, mid - stream electrolytic aluminum social inventory, and downstream aluminum rod inventory all decreased, which is beneficial for aluminum prices. As the peak season approaches, the futures price is expected to strengthen [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel decreased with increasing positions, and the main contract price approached the 120,000 mark. The non - ferrous sector oscillated weakly, and nickel prices were weaker than the sector. Nickel ore port inventory and SHFE inventory both increased, which is negative for nickel prices. The short - term commodity market atmosphere has cooled, and weak industrial support has led to a significant decline in nickel prices. Attention should be paid to the technical support at the 120,000 mark [7]. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On August 18, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the domestic market was 144,200 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons compared to the 11th and 11,800 tons compared to the 14th [9]. - **Aluminum**: From August 11 - 17, the domestic aluminum rod delivery volume was 49,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared to the previous period [10]. - **Nickel**: On August 18, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,300 - 123,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121,650 yuan/ton, a 150 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium of Jinchuan No. 1 nickel was 2,100 - 2,300 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium of domestic mainstream brand electrowinning nickel was - 50 - 300 yuan/ton [11]. Relevant Charts Copper - **Base difference, inventory, and other related charts**: Include copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc [12][14][15] Aluminum - **Base difference, inventory, and other related charts**: Include aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina trend, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory, alumina inventory, etc [25][27][29] Nickel - **Base difference, inventory, and other related charts**: Include nickel basis, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, nickel ore port inventory, etc [37][40][41]

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - **沪铜**: The main contract price of Shanghai copper increased with rising positions and stood above the 79,000 mark again. In July, the added - value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year and 0.38% month - on - month. From January to July, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year. The weakening of the US dollar index may support copper prices. The copper price shows a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas, and the import window is open. Technically, pay attention to the support at the 79,000 mark [4]. - **沪铝**: Shanghai aluminum maintained a volatile trend with the open interest rising to 600,000 contracts. The upstream bauxite continued to accumulate inventory, the intermediate electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased, and the downstream demand is expected to pick up. With neutral macro and positive industry factors, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly [5]. - **沪镍**: Shanghai nickel showed a weak and volatile trend with the open interest rising to 200,000 contracts. The main contract price approached the 120,000 mark. The continuous increase in nickel ore port inventory exerts pressure on nickel prices. With neutral macro and weak industry support, pay attention to the technical support at the 120,000 mark [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On August 15th, the average spot premium in Shandong region reported a discount of 140 yuan/ton. Downstream processing enterprises continued the rigid - demand procurement mode, and the terminal demand did not improve significantly, with the market activity remaining flat [8]. - **Aluminum**: As of August 15th, the total bauxite inventory in 9 domestic ports reached 23.85 million tons, an increase of 960,000 tons from the previous week. On August 14th, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 517,000 tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons from the 7th and 54,000 tons from the 11th [9]. - **Nickel**: On August 15th, the main reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2509 contract. The mainstream premium for Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,300 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,750 yuan/ton; for Russian nickel, it was +450 yuan/ton, with a price of 120,900 yuan/ton; for Norwegian nickel, it was +3,200 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,650 yuan/ton; and for nickel beans, it was +2,550 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,000 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts on copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [10][12][13]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, and alumina inventory [24][25][27]. - **Nickel**: Charts cover nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [36][38][40].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on August 15, 2025, providing data for investors to analyze potential arbitrage opportunities. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On August 15, 2025, the domestic spot price was 79,415, the LME price was 9,685, and the ratio was 8.22. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.17, with a profit of - 184.92 [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,510, the LME price was 2,816, and the ratio was 7.99. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.66, with a profit of - 1,868.19 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,710, the LME price was 2,607, and the ratio was 7.94. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.46, with a profit of - 1,366.84 [1]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 121,500, the LME price was 14,964, and the ratio was 8.12. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.25, with a profit of - 1,860.66 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,650, the LME price was 1,943, and the ratio was 8.60. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.86, with a profit of - 515.45 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month were - 420, - 440, - 450, and - 450 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 499, 896, 1302, and 1707 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 120, - 105, - 95, and - 110, and the theoretical spreads were 216, 338, 460, and 582 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 60, - 85, - 125, and - 180, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 331, 447, and 563 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were - 100, - 80, - 70, and - 45, and the theoretical spreads were 209, 315, 420, and 525 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 1280, - 1140, - 950, and - 660 [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 1690, and the theoretical spread was 5542 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were - 15 and - 435, and the theoretical spreads were 75 and 453 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were 90 and - 30, and the theoretical spreads were 65 and 196 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 220 and 120, and the theoretical spreads were 108 and 219 [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On August 15, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - contract) were 3.51, 3.81, 4.70, 0.92, 1.23, and 0.75 respectively; for London (three - contract), they were 3.43, 3.73, 4.91, 0.92, 1.32, and 0.70 [5].