| | 操作评级 | 2026年01月08日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | ななな | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | な女女 | | | 氧化铝 | ななな | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | | | 锌 | ★☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 铝 | ★☆☆ | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 镇及不锈钢 立☆☆ | | | | | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 锡 | な☆☆ | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | なな女 | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业硅 | ☆☆☆ | | | 多晶硅 | 女女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周四沪铜增仓、主力换月至2603合约。今日上海铜贴水扩至125元,SMM社库周内增加1.96万吨至27.38万吨。前 期260 ...

有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 期货研究报告 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 8 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 日内有色回落，午后跌势加剧 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价震荡走弱，午后跳水，一度跌至 10 万元关口，随后触底 回升。短期内外盘分歧加剧，昨日宏观氛围开始冷却，资金获利了 结意愿上升，而产业弱现实也给予期价压力。今日铜价延续颓势， 短期关注 10 关口多空博弈。 沪铝 今日铝价减仓下行，主力期价跌破 2.4 万关口。短期宏观氛围冷 却，有色普跌。产业端处于弱现实阶段，也给予期价一定压力。技 术上，铝价在 2021 年高点面临压力， ...

氧化铝现货价格：2026-01-07SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2655元/吨，山东价格录得2585元/吨，河南价格录得 2680元/吨，广西价格录得2745元/吨，贵州价格录得2785元/吨，澳洲氧化铝FOB价格录得304美元/吨。 氧化铝期货方面：2026-01-07氧化铝主力合约开于2822元/吨，收于2938元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价变化139 元/吨，变化幅度4.97%，最高价达到2975元/吨，最低价为2822元/吨。全天交易日成交1854026手，全天交易 日持仓494082手。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-08 价格短期快速上涨抑制消费 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价24140元/吨，较上一交易日变化230元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-200元/ 吨，较上一交易日变化20元/吨；中原A00铝价23930元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化40元/吨至-410元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录24130元/吨，较上一交易日变化270元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化65元/吨至-205元/ 吨。 铝期货方面：2026-01-07日沪铝主力合约开于24280元/吨，收于24360元 ...

20260107申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 品种 | 观点 | | --- | --- | | 铜 | 铜：夜盘铜价收低0.68%。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，冶炼产量虽 环比回落，但总体延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电力投资稳定；汽车产销正增长； | | | 家电产量负增长；地产持续疲弱。矿供应扰动导致全球铜供求预期转向缺口，短期铜价更 | | | 多受市场情绪影响。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | | 锌 | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨0.37%。锌精矿加工费回落，精矿供应阶段性紧张，冶炼产量延续增长 | | | 。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存总体高位。基建投资累计增速趋缓，汽车产销正增长；家电产 | | | 量负增长；地产持续疲弱。锌供求总体差异不明显，但需要关注目前有色整体市场情绪。 | | | 建议关注美元、冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | | 品种 | 国内前日期货 收盘价 | 国内基差 （元/吨） | 前日LME3月 期收盘价 | LME现货升贴水 （CASH-3M） | LME库存 （吨） | LME库存日 度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

数据来源：文华财经 （文华综合） | 電神名 | | 司司行它 | 四十六年 | 型米刷 | ■限定位网 | 四角大的 | 重多日 | #多分 | 100 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 关键词 | 678222 | 59.65% | 162622 | 751867 | 66.13% | 123106 | -13645 | 139516 | 0.9021 | | 坂灣 | 693473 | 52.76% | 122562 | 835375 | 63.56% | 111123 | -141902 | 133682 | 0.8301 | | 螺纹 1289306 59.40% | | | 17697 | 1264222 | 58.24% | 120112 | 25084 | 127809 | 1.0198 | | 细城 | 710993 | 51.80% | 129490 | 844169 | 61.51% | 12705 | -133176 | 126785 | 0.8422 | | 黑保 | 271905 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price rose 1.28% overnight, hitting a new record high. The supply of concentrate remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output has declined month - on - month, it continues to grow overall. The supply disruption of copper mines has led to a shift in the global copper supply - demand expectation to a deficit, and the short - term copper price is more affected by market sentiment [2]. - The zinc price rose overnight. The processing fee of zinc concentrate has declined, the supply of concentrate is in a stage of tightness, and smelting output continues to grow. The overall inventory of galvanized sheets is at a high level. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the overall market sentiment of non - ferrous metals needs to be concerned [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Copper - Price change: The copper price rose 1.28% overnight and hit a new record high [2]. - Supply situation: The supply of concentrate is tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output has declined month - on - month, it continues to grow overall [2]. - Demand situation: Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is negative, and the real estate market is weak [2]. - Market expectation: The supply disruption of copper mines has led to a shift in the global copper supply - demand expectation to a deficit, and the short - term copper price is more affected by market sentiment [2]. - Data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 101,190 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 45 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 13,088 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 41.98 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 145,325 tons, and the daily change was - 2,100 tons [2]. Zinc - Price change: The zinc price rose overnight [2]. - Supply situation: The processing fee of zinc concentrate has declined, the supply of concentrate is in a stage of tightness, and smelting output continues to grow [2]. - Demand situation: The overall inventory of galvanized sheets is at a high level. Infrastructure investment growth has slowed down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is negative, and the real estate market is weak [2]. - Market expectation: The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the overall market sentiment of non - ferrous metals needs to be concerned [2]. - Data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 23,800 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 165 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,208 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 36.30 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 106,325 tons, and the daily change was - 1,300 tons [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 23,610 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 230 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,090 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 27.69 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 509,250 tons, and the daily change was - 2,500 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 133,750 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 5,920 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 17,290 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 151.78 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 255,282 tons, and the daily change was 120 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,375 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 75 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,030 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 45.52 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 239,325 tons, and the daily change was - 2,600 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 334,030 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 7,990 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 42,560 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 30.01 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 5,415 tons, and the daily change was - 5 tons [2].

中辉有色观点 | 中辉有色观点 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | | | | | 委内瑞拉事件影响深远，地缘溢价交易继续，COMEX | 此前交割逻辑再现，流动性风 | 黄金 | 长线持有 | 险偏好尚可。中长期来看，地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金， | | | | | | ★★ | 长期战略配置价值不变。 | | | | | | | | | COMEX | 近月合约再现多头交割拿货、黄金情绪高涨，白银大涨，长期来看市场押注 | 白银 | 长期持有 | 降息持续、供需缺口连续 | 5 | 年持续，全球大财政均对白银长期有利，另外资源交易 | | | | ★★ | 也是 | 2026 | 年一大主题，长期做多逻辑不变。关注海外市场调仓风险 | | | | | | | 全球地缘剧变，南美铜资源或成为地缘博弈筹码，加剧全球铜供应扭曲和紊乱，铜 | 铜 | 长线持有 | 隔夜再创历史新高，建议前期多单继续持有，中长期对铜依旧看好。 | ...

期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 5 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 节后铜铝增仓上行 核心观点 沪铜 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 今日沪铜高开高走，持仓量持续上升。宏观层面，节后归来市场 氛围较好，有色普涨。产业层面，现货贴水转为升水，电解铜社库 持续上升。节后铜价再度站上 10 万关口，资金涌入明显，上行动能 较强，关注前期高点压力。 沪铝 今日铝价早盘高开高走，持仓量上升明显，日内涨超 3%。宏观层 面，节后归来市场氛围较好，有色普涨。产业层面，高铝价抑制下 游消费，产业被动跟随，电解铝社库上升明显。近期铝价表现强势 ...

期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 30 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色持续反弹，镍领涨 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 6 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 核心观点 沪铜 昨夜铜价维持颓势，沪铜主力期价跌至 9.6 万关口，今日持续回 升，主力期价尾盘收于 9.8 万关口。临近元旦假期，叠加铜价短期积 累较大涨幅，资金了结意愿较强导致铜价高位跳水。今日国内宏观 氛围回暖，下方承接力量较强，推动铜价持续反弹。产业层面，昨 夜铜价大幅下挫，今 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market experienced a significant decline on Monday, with silver prices first surging and then plummeting, dragging down other precious metals. The domestic precious metals market also saw sharp drops [9]. - China will be the first economy to pay interest on central bank digital currency, and the new - generation digital RMB system will be launched on January 1, 2026 [9]. - The Chinese People's Liberation Army Eastern Theater Command organized military exercises, and the State Council Tariff Commission announced the 2026 tariff adjustment plan [10]. - The market regulatory总局 deployed key tasks for 2026 and introduced new regulations on food production supervision [11]. - In the futures market, different varieties showed various trends. Some agricultural products and energy - chemical products had price fluctuations, and the stock index futures and options market also had its own characteristics [6][13][18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Chemical Industry - On December 30, 2025, among chemical products, the prices of coking coal, coke, asphalt, methanol, etc. rose, while the prices of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, etc. fell. For example, coking coal rose 20.50 to 1,108.50, with a 1.884% increase; natural rubber fell 65.0 to 15,600.00, with a - 0.415% decrease [6]. 2. Agricultural Products - On December 29, 2025, the prices of some agricultural products showed different trends. Sugar prices were in a low - level range, with cost support but limited upside due to supply pressure. Corn prices rebounded, and peanuts were under pressure below 8000 yuan. The pig market showed signs of stabilization, and the egg market had a strong price - increase expectation. Cotton prices had a short - term correction after rising, but the fundamentals remained strong [13]. 3. Energy - Chemical Products - For caustic soda, the market is expected to continue its weak trend due to supply - demand contradictions. Coking coal and coke markets are in a weak and volatile state. Log prices are in a narrow - range shock, and pulp prices have a greater downward risk. Double - offset paper prices have broken through the previous resistance level, and copper and aluminum prices continue to run at a high level. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and steel prices are in a range - bound state. Ferroalloys are currently treated with a bullish short - term view, and lithium carbonate prices have reversed their previous upward trend [14][15][16]. 4. Option Finance - On December 29, 2025, the three major A - share indexes showed different trends, with more stocks falling than rising. The trading volume exceeded 2 trillion for two consecutive days. The stock index futures and options market had different performance in terms of positions, spreads, and implied volatility. The short - term market may fluctuate, and investors are advised to pay attention to the trading rhythm and moderately increase positions on dips [18][19][20].