美联储鹰派或鸽派倾向
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信用业务周报:近期市场资金面有何变化?-20250903
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2025-09-03 07:13
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term market is expected to maintain a cautiously optimistic attitude with a priority on defensive allocation, while in the medium - term, one should firmly grasp the technology mainline and Hong Kong stock dividends [6]. - Despite the approaching September 3rd parade which may keep the market optimistic, there is a risk of increased volatility in mid - to early September [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - **Market Performance**: Last week, most major market indices rose, with the ChiNext 50 having a significant increase of 9.27%. Among major industries, the Information Technology Index and the Materials Index performed well, with weekly increases of 5.69% and 3.38% respectively, while the Energy Index and the Financial Index declined by 1.74% and 1.44% respectively. Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 14 industries rose, with Communication, Non - Ferrous Metals, and Electronics leading the gains at 12.38%, 7.16%, and 6.28% respectively, and Textile and Apparel, Coal, and Banking experiencing the largest declines at 2.87%, 2.76%, and 2.13% respectively [7][15][18]. - **Trading Heat**: The average daily trading volume of the Wind All - A Index last week was 298.3131 billion yuan (previous value: 258.748 billion yuan), at a historically high level (three - year historical quantile of 100.00%) [7][22]. - **Valuation Tracking**: As of August 29, 2025, the valuation (PE_TTM) of the Wind All - A Index was 22.15, up 0.28 from the previous week, at the 89.30% quantile of the past five - year history. Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 13 industries saw a valuation (PE_TTM) recovery [7][29]. Market Observation - **Analysis of Recent Market Liquidity Changes** - The A - share market has been oscillating and differentiating this week. The Shanghai Composite Index adjusted significantly mid - week and rebounded slightly at the end, closing down for the week. The market is currently focused on the Fed's future stance and the next - stage trends of the market and tech stocks [5]. - The Fed's future stance depends on whether Powell gets re - elected. Before the Fed chair change next mid - year, whether Trump changes his stance on Powell's non - re - election is the core variable for the Fed's policy direction in the next year [5]. - From the perspective of fund inflows, the total trading volume of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices has been rising, while the net redemption of ChiNext and STAR Market ETFs has increased. Since August, the margin trading balance has been rising, and the growth rate of margin trading and securities lending balance has accelerated in the past two weeks. Retail funds turned slightly net - outflows this week, while institutional funds have been in a net - outflow state since early August, with the trend intensifying this week [5]. - **Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations** - Market trends may show the following characteristics: the broader market/CSI 300 Index will mainly oscillate with limited upside potential; the defensive allocation value of the dividend sector is emerging; short - term fluctuations in the STAR Market and ChiNext will increase, but the medium - term mainline remains unchanged. If there is an adjustment in September, it should be seen as a strategic opportunity for mid - term technology layout [6]. - With the approaching September 3rd parade, the market may remain optimistic in the near term. However, considering the current liquidity situation, one should be aware of the risk of increased volatility in mid - to early September. Short - term investment should be cautiously optimistic with a priority on defensive allocation, and in the medium - term, one should firmly grasp the technology mainline and Hong Kong stock dividends [6].