美联储12月决策
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宁证期货今日早评-20251120
Ning Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 01:42
Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Silver is under short - term pressure but remains bullish in the medium term due to the difficulty of the Fed's December decision caused by the lack of employment data and the downward pressure on the US economy [1]. - Natural rubber shows a co - existence of raw material support and demand suppression, with a large price difference between natural and synthetic rubber, resulting in a transitional period of natural rubber price fluctuations [2]. - The price of live pigs is stable with a slight upward trend, but the supply - side pressure is still large, and the LH2601 contract has short - term downward pressure [4]. - The price of soybean meal is limited in its upward space due to sufficient supply, slow recovery of oil mill operating rates, and relatively stable demand, and the 01 contract is in a short - term weakening and fluctuating state [5]. - Palm oil has strong support at the bottom in the short term. Although affected by the decline of rapeseed oil futures, the departure of a large number of short - positions in the main contract provides support, and low - buying operations are recommended [6]. - Crude oil has a downward driving force under the situation of oversupply, and short - term geopolitical influence is weakened, so it should be treated with a weakening and fluctuating view [7]. - PTA has support in supply and demand, but with the loosening of crude oil prices, it is necessary to be cautious when chasing high prices and consider appropriate profit - taking [9]. - Short - term treasury bonds are slightly bullish in the medium term, with increased trading difficulty due to factors such as loose liquidity, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and open - market bond trading [9]. - Gold is under pressure and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term due to the uncertainty of the Fed's December interest - rate cut [10]. - Methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait for further stabilization [10]. - Plastic is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [11]. - Soda ash is expected to run weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [12]. Group 3: Summaries by Product Silver - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the October employment report, and the Fed's December decision is difficult. The downward pressure on the US economy suppresses the sentiment of going long on silver, but the possibility of a Fed rate cut in December still exists, which exerts pressure on precious metals [1]. Natural Rubber - Thai raw rubber prices are high due to weather factors. In China, natural rubber social inventory shows different trends in light and dark rubber, with a slow seasonal inventory build - up in Qingdao. Terminal demand is insufficient, and the price difference between natural and synthetic rubber is large [2]. Live Pigs - On November 19, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market increased slightly. The pig price is stable with a slight upward trend, but the supply - side pressure is still large, and the LH2601 contract has short - term downward pressure [4]. Soybean Meal - As of November 19, domestic soybean meal spot prices declined in different regions, and the trading volume increased. Sufficient imported soybean supply, slow recovery of oil mill operating rates, and relatively stable demand limit the upward space of soybean meal prices [5]. Palm Oil - On November 19, a Malaysian palm oil producer aimed to maximize plantation output. The US biodiesel plan boosts the vegetable oil market, but the decline of rapeseed oil futures drags down palm oil. The departure of short - positions in the main contract provides support [6]. Crude Oil - As of November 14, US crude oil inventory decreased, gasoline inventory increased, and daily production decreased slightly. Market speculation around Russia led to a sharp decline in oil prices, and the overall supply is in an oversupply situation [7]. PTA - The polyester market has low inventory, and downstream demand is expected to remain high in November. PTA supply has many maintenance plans in November, and the supply - demand situation has improved, but crude oil price fluctuations need attention [9]. Short - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - term varieties mostly declined, indicating loose capital. The economy is under pressure in the fourth quarter, and the central bank's open - market operations and short - term liquidity injection are favorable for the bond market, but trading is more difficult [9]. Gold - The Fed's October FOMC meeting minutes show deep differences on interest - rate cuts, increasing the uncertainty of a December rate cut, and gold is under pressure [10]. Methanol - The price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang decreased. The domestic methanol operating rate is at a high level, downstream demand is stable, and port inventory decreased this week. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [10]. Plastic - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China decreased. Supply is sufficient, production enterprise inventory increased, and downstream factory operating rates decreased slightly. The L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [11]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash decreased. Weekly production decreased, and factory inventory decreased slightly. The operating rate of float glass decreased slightly, and the soda ash 01 contract is expected to run weakly [11][12].