从9月会议纪要看，虽然主张今年再降息两次的官员略多于更加谨慎的官员数，但是美联储在降息上的 观点分歧明显加剧。在这样的背景下，即便在今年底前的两次议息会议上美联储都采取降息措施，但是 由于需平衡内部的不同意见，美联储很可能在今年余下的两次降息中都仅会降息25个基点。 JerryZang 据美联储发布的9月议息会议纪要，在参加会议的19名官员中有过半数的人预计今年底前还会有两次降 息，但是也有数名官员认为今年底前只会有一次降息或者不再降息。 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。一切有关市 场的准确信息，请以相关官方公告为准。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目前美国联邦基金利率水平在4.00%至4.25%区间，如上述情况下到今年底美国联邦基金利率水平很可 能仅会降至3.50%至3.75%区间，仍然处于不低的水平。这对于处于下行风险中的美国经济来说是杯水 车薪。 如果美国经济未来出现恶化的情况，那么届时美国经济面临的主要矛盾将不是通货膨胀，而是经济下 行，美联储将不得不加速降息。这将带给美国经济，乃至全球经济更大的冲击。 ...

正如在先前文章中阐述的，美国经济面临的主要问题不是通货膨胀的大幅反弹，而是经济可能出现的加 速下行。 山雨欲来风满楼。美国经济的前景堪忧。 JerryZang 近期公布的一系列的就业市场数据也反映出美国就业市场的疲软状态。连同制造业数据，这些经济数据 都反映出美国经济的下行态势。 在这样的背景下，如果美联储继续维持利率水平不变，那么美国实体经济将面临更大的负面压力，美国 经济可能存在加速下行的风险。 市场普遍认为，美联储在本月即将召开的议息会议上会重启降息。然而，货币政策具有一定的滞后性， 况且美联储一直在延续其在货币政策上的谨慎态度，这使得美联储的降息措施很难在短期内抑制住美国 经济的下行趋势。 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。一切有关市 场的准确信息，请以相关官方公告为准。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 9月15日公布的数据显示，美国9月纽约联储制造业指数从前值11.9大幅滑入负值区间，为-8.7，大幅低 于预期值5。这反映出美国的制造业的疲软现实。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The strategy suggestion is bullish with oscillations [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The continuous deterioration of the US employment situation has increased market expectations for the number and amplitude of consecutive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. However, due to the relatively strong US dollar index, the increase in precious metals has been limited [2][27] - The increase in the expectation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts has led to a re - evaluation of the US dollar's competitiveness in the market. Although the US dollar index has been relatively strong recently, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate has been limited, and the short - term fluctuations caused by the exchange rate have had limited impact on precious metals [3] - As the expectation of a September interest rate cut strengthens, high - risk - appetite assets such as US stocks, copper, and crude oil may further strengthen, but the upward momentum of crude oil is limited due to production increase pressure [20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Market Review - The significant decline in US non - farm and employment data has increased market concerns about the US economic downturn. Currently, the market is trading on the amplitude and consecutive number of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Gold prices have been boosted by risk - aversion sentiment. Subsequently, gold and silver may rise simultaneously under the impetus of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectation, but may decline significantly after the interest rate cut is implemented. The upward trend of silver also needs to pay attention to the short - term fluctuations of gold [9] 3.2 Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The US Senate plans to hold a full - scale vote on Trump's nomination of Stephen Milan as a Federal Reserve governor on the evening of the 15th. If the nomination is approved, he will enter the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Committee and participate in subsequent interest rate decision - making votes [12] - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in September was 55.4, the lowest since May, with an expected value of 58. The preliminary value of the 5 - year inflation expectation rose for two consecutive months to 3.9% [12] - The global central bank reserve pattern is about to undergo a milestone change. The proportion of gold in the reserves of global central banks (excluding the Federal Reserve) has exceeded US Treasury bonds for the first time since 1996 [14] - In August, the US CPI was in line with expectations year - on - year, slightly higher than expected month - on - month. The core CPI was in line with expectations and the previous value both year - on - year and month - on - month. The number of initial jobless claims last week reached the highest level since October 2021 [14] - The annualized revised value of the US real GDP in the second quarter increased by 3.3% quarter - on - quarter, higher than the expected value and the initial value. The annualized revised value of the core PCE price index increased by 2.5% quarter - on - quarter, consistent with the initial value but lower than the expected value [14] - The US PPI inflation unexpectedly declined in August, providing new support for the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates next week [15] 3.3 Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.3.1 US Economy and Policy - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in September was at a five - month low, and the 5 - year inflation expectation rose for two consecutive months. The ISM manufacturing index in August was slightly higher than that in July but lower than expected, remaining below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months. The new orders index expanded for the first time since the beginning of this year, while the output index fell back into the contraction range. The current US economic data shows increasing downward pressure on the US economy [16] 3.3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Spain to hold talks with the US from September 14th to 17th to discuss issues such as US unilateral tariff measures, abuse of export controls, and TikTok. Trump has made a series of statements on sanctions against Russia, pressuring Europe to impose economic pressure on China, and imposing tariffs on semiconductor companies that do not transfer production to the US. After the successful completion of China's September 3rd military parade, the US has continued to release negative signals, intensifying geopolitical tensions [19] 3.3.3 Other Financial Markets - The US non - farm employment growth in August was far lower than expected, and the unemployment rate reached a new high since 2021. The US economic downward pressure has increased, indicating the necessity of interest rate cuts. The US service industry PMI in July reached a new high since December 2024. Crude oil is still greatly affected by production cuts, and there are differences in the trends of domestic and foreign copper prices. As the expectation of a September interest rate cut strengthens, high - risk - appetite assets may further strengthen, but the upward momentum of crude oil is limited [20] 3.3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate still passively tracks the US dollar index. With the increasing expectation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, the expectation of a decline in the US dollar index has increased, but the US dollar has shown good resilience. The offshore RMB exchange rate has continued to appreciate, but the appreciation range is limited. The RMB exchange rate is not a key consideration factor as its impact on gold is limited [24] 3.4 Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Due to the continuous deterioration of the US employment situation, market expectations for the number and amplitude of consecutive Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year have increased. However, due to the relatively strong US dollar index, the increase in precious metals has been limited [27]

Group 1 - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting suggests a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, indicating a cautious approach to economic conditions [2][3] - The U.S. labor market shows signs of balance with a July unemployment rate of 4.2%, but there are concerns about a possible future surge in layoffs if labor demand weakens further [2][3] - Tariffs are acknowledged to have a temporary impact on inflation, with Powell stating that the price increases from tariffs are unlikely to lead to a persistent inflationary spiral due to a relatively loose labor market [2][3] Group 2 - The urgency for interest rate cuts is increasing as the U.S. economy faces significant downward pressure, with a reported GDP contraction of 0.5% in Q1 2025 and a slowdown in growth to 2% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [4][5] - Employment indicators show a troubling trend, with non-farm payrolls being revised downwards and a rising unemployment rate, suggesting that the labor market may not be as strong as the unemployment rate indicates [5][6] Group 3 - Inflation pressures in the U.S. are persistent, with both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) showing upward trends, with core CPI and core PCE rising to 3.1% and 2.9% respectively [7][8] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to worsen, with estimates suggesting that Trump's tariff policies could raise inflation rates by 1.5% to 2% [8][9] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, influenced by historical lessons from the 1970s and 1980s regarding inflation control [10][11] - The recent fiscal measures under Trump's administration are projected to increase the federal deficit significantly, which may limit the Fed's ability to implement aggressive rate cuts [11][12] Group 5 - Trump's ongoing efforts to reshape the Federal Reserve's board could threaten the independence of the central bank, potentially impacting future monetary policy decisions [12][13] - The current political climate suggests that if Trump successfully consolidates control over the Fed, it may lead to significant shifts in monetary policy direction [12][13]

8月29日公布的数据显示，美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值从初值58.6调降至58.2。在过去的一段时间内，美国 密歇根大学消费者信心指数已经持续下降。这反映出作为美国经济的最重要的支柱消费正在呈现萎缩，并存在进一步萎 缩的风险。 8月29日公布的美国8月芝加哥PMI也从前值47.1下降至41.5。这进一步表明美国经济的下行趋势。 笔者认为，特朗普总统的关税政策带给美国经济的不确定性尚未消散，未来美国经济不能够排除会面对"黑天鹅事件"的 可能性。 JerryZang 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。一切有关市场的准确信息， 请以相关官方公告为准。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 与此同时，近期公布的包括PCE物价数据在内的通货膨胀数据表明，美国经济的通货膨胀呈现出显著的粘滞性。这引发 了市场对于美国经济通货膨胀出现大幅反弹的担忧。 不过，正如笔者在先前文章中阐述的，美国经济未来很可能不会出现通货膨胀的大幅反弹，更大的可能是经济的下行。 市场普遍认为，美联储会在9月再次降息。不过，鉴于美联储主席鲍威尔在降息上的谨慎态度，未来美联储很可能不会 快速而大幅的降息，屈指可数 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔在刚刚召开的杰克逊霍尔央行年会上的讲话被市场普遍解读为美联储即将重启降息进 程的信号。不过，在这次讲话中，鲍威尔仍然保持了其一贯的谨慎态度和口吻，这使得市场不得不对未 来一段时间内美联储可能实施的宽松货币政策力度产生怀疑。 目前，美国联邦基金利率水平处于4.25%至4.5%的偏高的区间。笔者认为，与其说鲍威尔本次讲话在暗 示重启降息，不如说是在来自各方面重压下鲍威尔不得不展现了在降息问题上的有限的灵活性和姿态， 也许也只是一种不得已而为之的姿态而已。 在上述这样的背景下，美国经济可能会出现更加明显的下行趋势，经济的不确定性也会显著上升。 JerryZang 由此可见，在明年5月鲍威尔卸任美联储主席之前，美联储即便会采取降息措施，也可能是非常有限 的，缓慢的和非常谨慎的。 美联储的这种不得已而为之的谨慎降息，一方面并不能在很大程度上缓解美国经济承受的高利率的负面 压力，另一方面还会在相当程度上增加美国经济在特朗普总统的关税政策带来的通货膨胀反弹的粘滞 性，使得美国经济雪上加霜。 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。一切有关市 场的准确信息，请以相关官方 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates a decline in U.S. retail sales growth, with July retail sales month-on-month rate dropping from 0.9% to 0.5%, and core retail sales month-on-month rate decreasing from 0.8% to 0.3% [2] - The decline in retail sales suggests a risk of contraction in consumer spending, which is a crucial driver of the U.S. economy [2] - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for August also fell from 61.7 to 58.6, reflecting a decrease in consumer willingness to spend [2] Group 2 - There are widespread concerns that the inflation in the U.S. economy could significantly rebound due to President Trump's tariff policies; however, the contraction in consumer spending makes such a rebound less likely [2] - The article argues that the U.S. economic outlook is more likely to face a downturn rather than a significant inflation rebound, suggesting that even aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may not effectively boost the economy in the short term [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. retail sales data for July 2025 shows a month-on-month increase of +0.5%, aligning with expectations, while the previous month's figure was revised from +0.6% to +0.9%. Core retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, increased by +0.3%, also meeting expectations, but down from a revised +0.8% in June [2][4]. Market Reaction - Following the release of retail data, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices exhibited mixed performance, changing by +0.08%, -0.29%, and -0.40% respectively. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 4 basis points to 4.33%, while the 2-year yield increased by 1 basis point to 3.75% [3]. Analysis of July Consumer Data - The decline in July retail sales is attributed to the expiration of tariff exemptions on July 9, prompting consumers to make early purchases in June, which inflated that month's sales growth to +0.9%. As the tariff impact subsided, July's growth fell to +0.5%, indicating a downward trend in the U.S. economy [4][7]. - The July retail sales growth decline, coupled with weakening employment data, suggests a high probability of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts in the latter half of the year. Market expectations indicate two rate cuts in 2025, with the first anticipated in September [4][21]. Retail Sales Breakdown - In July, various sectors showed differing performance: non-durable goods such as sporting goods (+0.8%), non-store retail (+0.8%), and clothing (+0.7%) performed well, while grocery stores (-1.7%) and electronics (-0.6%) saw significant declines. Overall, automotive sales were a key driver, with core retail growth at only +0.3% when excluding automobiles [11][12]. - Service consumption showed signs of weakness, particularly in the restaurant and bar sector, which declined by -0.4%, while food and beverage stores increased by +0.5% [12]. - Gasoline prices remained stable in July, with average prices at $3.25 per gallon for gasoline and $3.78 for diesel, contributing to a +0.7% increase in gas station sales [13]. Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - The decline in retail sales and weak employment data point to a continued downward trend in the U.S. economy, increasing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve implementing interest rate cuts. The CME Fedwatch tool indicates a 92.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September 2025, with a second cut in October at 55.2% [21][22].

Retail Data Overview - In July 2025, U.S. retail sales increased by 0.5% month-on-month, matching expectations, but down from a revised 0.9% in June[2] - Core retail sales (excluding automobiles and gasoline) rose by 0.3% month-on-month, also below the previous value of 0.8%[2] Economic Implications - The decline in July retail sales indicates a weakening consumer sentiment, with year-on-year growth dropping from 4.4% in June to 3.9% in July, marking the second-lowest value since March 2025[7] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for July saw a significant increase to 3.3% year-on-year, up from 2.3%, suggesting that businesses are passing on tariff costs to consumers, which may further dampen consumer spending[7] Interest Rate Outlook - The decline in retail sales and weak employment data suggest a continued downward trend in the U.S. economy, increasing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts in the second half of 2025[8] - Market expectations indicate a 92.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September 2025, with a total of two cuts anticipated for the year[10] Sector Performance - In July, durable goods such as automobiles (+1.6%) and furniture (+1.4%) showed strong performance, while non-durable goods like groceries (-1.7%) and electronics (-0.6%) declined[9] - Service consumption, particularly in restaurants and bars, decreased by 0.4%, indicating a shift in consumer spending patterns[10]

继上周美国非农就业数据"爆冷"之后，本周二出炉的美国7月服务业PMI也降至50.1，低于预期和前值。但值得注意的是，其中价格指数这一分项 却升至69.9，创2022年10月以来的最高水平。随着美国经济下行压力加大，预计其降息窗口或逐步打开，这将利好黄金价格。 Wind数据显示，有色金属板块方面，部分公司近期有分红计划，稀土和钨等产品价格持续上涨；反内卷政策出台后，行业竞争态势向有序方向发 展，对能源金属产业链价格形成一定支撑，工业金属供需均保持活跃 8月8日，三大指数冲高回落，新疆振兴、西部大基建概率领涨，PEEK材料、Kimi概念领跌，有色金属、贵金属逆势上涨，截至13:50，有色金属 ETF基金(516650)涨1.29%，强势五连阳，其持仓股中矿资源（002738）涨超6%，盛和资源（600392）、海亮股份（002203）、天山铝业 （002532）、天齐锂业（002466）等股纷纷走强，黄金股ETF(159562)涨0.65%，其持仓股山东黄金（600547）、萃华珠宝（002731）、招金矿业 等股涨幅居前，黄金ETF华夏(518850)涨0.27%。 ...