【短评-白银】美国劳工统计局表示，将不会发布10月份就 业报告，并指出会将这些非农就业数据纳入11月份就业报告 中。美国劳工统计局表示，10月份的家庭数据（用于计算失业 率等关键统计数据）无法追溯收集，11月份的就业报告将于12 月16日发布。评：由于就业数据确实，美联储对12月决策较为 困难。美国经济下行压力施压白银做多情绪。美联储12月降息 的变动依然存在，施压贵金属。白银短期承压，中期依然看 多。关注黄金和白银的分化。 【 短 评 - 橡 胶 】 泰 国 原 料 胶 水 价 格 57 泰 铢 / 公 斤 （0.3/0.53%），杯胶价格暂无，海南胶水制全乳价格16000元/ 吨（0/0%），制浓乳胶价格16000元/吨（0/0%）；截至2025年 11月16日，中国天然橡胶社会库存106.2万吨，环比增加0.5万 吨，增幅0.5%；中国深色胶社会总库存为67万吨，增0.8%。中 国浅色胶社会总库存为39.2万吨，环比降0.01%。其中老全乳胶 环比增1.5%，3L环比增3%，RU库存小计降2.5%。评：天气因素 导致云南停割期加速，泰南强降雨扰动割胶，原料价格高企。 我国青岛库存季节性累库偏慢，库存处于 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - The economic downward pressure in the US is increasing, raising the probability of an interest - rate cut in December, but there are still internal differences within the Fed. Gold is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term and may experience high - level oscillations in the medium - term [1]. - Investors are evaluating the impact of US sanctions on Russia, and the international oil price has risen for three consecutive days. However, concerns about oversupply in the oil market limit price increases, and oil prices are expected to run in a volatile manner [1]. - The US government shutdown is about to end, risk appetite has increased. Silver has broken out of the narrow - range oscillation range, with short - term correction pressure, and attention should be paid to whether there is a divergence between the medium - term trends of silver and gold [3]. - The monetary policy remains in a loose orientation, which supports the bond market in the long - term. However, due to factors such as liquidity easing, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and open - market bond trading, the operation of the bond market becomes more difficult, and it is expected to oscillate in the medium - term [3]. - The national hog price adjusted weakly and steadily. The SPPOMA data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 10, 2025 decreased compared to the same period last month. Palm oil prices are expected to have room for further increase, and short - term long positions can be considered [5]. - The domestic methanol market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with the upper pressure at the 2120 level, and it is recommended to wait and see for further stabilization [7]. - The short - term short - fiber is expected to fluctuate following the cost side and run in a volatile manner [7]. - The domestic PVC market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with the upper pressure at the 4625 level for the 01 contract, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - The domestic soda ash market is expected to run in a volatile manner in the short - term, with the lower support at the 1205 level for the 01 contract, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long positions on corrections [9]. - The synthetic rubber market is expected to run weakly in a volatile manner due to weak supply - demand drivers [10][11]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold - According to ADP statistics, from October 1 - 25, the US private sector lost an average of 11,250 jobs every two weeks, with a total loss of 45,000 jobs in the month, the largest monthly decline since March 2023. The US economic downward pressure increases the probability of an interest - rate cut in December, but there are internal differences within the Fed. The US dollar index has weak upward momentum, and gold is volatile and bullish in the short - term and may experience high - level oscillations in the medium - term [1]. Crude Oil - A Reuters survey of five analysts shows that as of the week of November 7, US crude oil inventories increased by about 1.2 million barrels, with an estimated range of a decrease of 2 million barrels to an increase of 6 million barrels; US gasoline inventories decreased by 2.6 million barrels, with an estimated range of a decrease of 1.2 - 4 million barrels. Investors are evaluating the impact of US sanctions on Russia, and the expectation of the end of the US government shutdown has led to three consecutive days of oil price increases. However, concerns about oversupply in the oil market limit price increases, and oil prices are expected to run in a volatile manner. The OPEC and IEA November "Oil Market Monthly Reports" will be released on November 12 and 13 respectively [1]. Silver - The US Senate passed the "Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act", taking a key step to end the government shutdown. The bill will provide funds for the federal government until January 30 next year, revoke some lay - off measures during the shutdown, and temporarily prevent further lay - offs. The US House of Representatives plans to vote on the Senate - passed temporary appropriation bill on Wednesday. The end of the government shutdown has increased risk appetite. Silver has broken out of the narrow - range oscillation range, with short - term correction pressure, and attention should be paid to whether there is a divergence between the medium - term trends of silver and gold [3]. Long - term Treasury Bonds - The central bank's third - quarter monetary policy implementation report states that in the next step, a moderately loose monetary policy will be implemented to keep social financing conditions relatively loose, while continuing to improve the monetary policy framework and strengthening the implementation and transmission of monetary policy. The monetary policy remains in a loose orientation, which supports the bond market in the long - term. The central bank's open - market bond trading and continuous short - term liquidity injection are both positive for the bond market. However, due to factors such as liquidity easing, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and open - market bond trading, the operation of the bond market becomes more difficult, and it is expected to oscillate in the medium - term [3]. Hog - According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, on November 11, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 125.57, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 127.67, up 0.01 point from the previous day. As of 14:00, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.11 yuan/kg, down 0.1% from the previous day. The national hog price adjusted weakly and steadily. The large - scale enterprises' slaughter progress was a bit slow and still under pressure, while the slaughter of large - weight hogs by small farmers increased, and the terminal demand was insufficient. The supply exceeded the demand, and the price mainly adjusted weakly. The LH2601 contract still has downward pressure in the short - term and will oscillate at the bottom. The breeding side can hedge in a timely manner according to the slaughter rhythm [4]. Soybean Meal - According to Mysteel statistics, on the previous trading day, the total sales volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 314,100 tons, an increase of 120,500 tons from the previous trading day. Among them, the spot sales volume was 125,100 tons, an increase of 39,500 tons from the previous trading day, and the far - month basis sales volume was 189,000 tons, an increase of 81,000 tons from the previous trading day. The operating rate of the national dynamic full - sample oil mills was 53.51%, a decrease of 2.55% from the previous day. Currently, the supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, the operating rate of oil mills is slowly recovering, and the crushing volume is at a relatively high level, while the demand is relatively stable. The increase in soybean meal inventory limits the upward space of spot prices. The purchasing sentiment of downstream feed enterprises is average, and they mainly replenish inventory based on existing inventory levels. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in a narrow range between 3030 - 3090 in the short - term [4]. Palm Oil - The SPPOMA data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 10, 2025 decreased compared to the same period last month. The implementation of Canada's clean - fuel regulations and local government blending policies has led to a rise in rapeseed oil prices, driving up palm oil prices. Domestically, the basis prices in various regions, especially in South China, have increased rapidly, and the market trading is light, mainly fulfilling previous contracts. Palm oil prices are expected to have room for further increase, and short - term long positions can be considered [5]. Methanol - The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 88,800 tons, an increase of 64,900 tons from the previous week. The market price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu was 2060 yuan/ton, and the price remained stable. The domestic weekly methanol production capacity utilization rate was 87.79%, an increase of 1.18%. The 700,000 - ton/year methanol plant of Yulin Kaiyue is expected to resume operation this week. The total downstream production capacity utilization rate was 74.84%, a decrease of 0.43% from the previous week. The inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.5171 million tons, an increase of 10,600 tons from the previous week. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 386,400 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons from the previous week. The domestic methanol market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with the upper pressure at the 2120 level, and it is recommended to wait and see for further stabilization [7]. Short - fiber - The production of Chinese polyester short - fiber this cycle was 167,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5200 tons, with a growth rate of 3.21%. The average comprehensive production capacity utilization rate during this cycle was 88.37%, a week - on - week increase of 2.74%. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester short - fiber factories on the previous trading day was 41.96%, a decrease of 28.51% from the previous trading day. Supply has increased while demand has remained flat, with a slight inventory build - up this week. After the sales - to - production ratio reached a high, it declined, but the overall inventory pressure is not large. The short - term short - fiber is expected to fluctuate following the cost side and run in a volatile manner [7]. PVC - The price of East China SG - 5 type PVC was 4510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The PVC production capacity utilization rate was 80.75%, a week - on - week increase of 2.49%. The PVC social inventory was 1.0352 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13%. The average profit of national calcium - carbide - based PVC production enterprises was - 769 yuan/ton, and the average profit of national ethylene - based PVC production enterprises was - 465 yuan/ton. The operating rate of domestic PVC pipe sample enterprises was 39.4%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points from the previous week. The domestic PVC market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with the upper pressure at the 4625 level for the 01 contract, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of national heavy - duty soda ash was 1264 yuan/ton, and the price remained stable. The weekly production of soda ash was 746,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.43%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.7142 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.72%. The operating rate of float glass was 75.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 percentage points. The national average price of float glass was 1150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.136 million weight cases, a week - on - week decrease of 4.03%. The domestic soda ash market is expected to run in a volatile manner in the short - term, with the lower support at the 1205 level for the 01 contract, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long positions on corrections [9]. Synthetic Rubber - As of November 11, the price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 6975 yuan/ton, and the price of cis - polybutadiene rubber of Qilu Petrochemical was 10,400 yuan/ton. As of November 11, the weekly average profit of the C4 extraction process was 237 yuan/ton. Based on the butadiene price, the static cost of cis - polybutadiene rubber was estimated to be 8500 yuan/ton. On November 10, the latest market data released by the Passenger Car Association showed that the retail sales volume of the national passenger car market in October reached 2.242 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% and a month - on - month slight decrease of 0.1%. The raw material side is still under pressure from large domestic supply. On the demand side, tire enterprises still face shipment pressure, and foreign trade orders are less than expected. Some enterprises plan to reduce production or conduct maintenance in November, which will restrict the improvement of overall production capacity utilization. There is a lack of substantial positive factors. The synthetic rubber market is expected to run weakly in a volatile manner [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes indicate a divided outlook among officials regarding interest rate cuts, with a majority expecting two cuts by year-end, while some anticipate only one or none [2] Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - More than half of the 19 officials at the meeting expect two interest rate cuts before the end of the year [2] - There is a noticeable increase in disagreement among Federal Reserve officials regarding the timing and number of rate cuts [2] - If the Fed proceeds with two cuts, they are likely to be limited to 25 basis points each, resulting in a potential federal funds rate of 3.50% to 3.75% by year-end [2] Group 2: Economic Implications - The current federal funds rate is between 4.00% and 4.25%, and the anticipated cuts may not significantly alleviate downward pressures on the U.S. economy [2] - Should the U.S. economy deteriorate further, the primary concern may shift from inflation to economic decline, prompting the Fed to accelerate rate cuts [2] - Accelerated rate cuts could have a more substantial impact on both the U.S. and global economies [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent data indicates a significant decline in the U.S. manufacturing sector, with the New York Fed manufacturing index dropping from a previous value of 11.9 to -8.7, well below the expected value of 5, highlighting the weakness in the U.S. economy [2] Economic Indicators - The employment market data also reflects a weakening state, contributing to the overall downward trend in the U.S. economy [2] - The combination of manufacturing and employment data suggests a concerning economic outlook, with potential risks of accelerated economic decline [2] Federal Reserve Policy - There is a prevailing market expectation that the Federal Reserve will consider interest rate cuts in the upcoming meeting, but the cautious approach of the Fed may delay any effective measures to counteract the economic downturn [2] - The primary concern for the U.S. economy is not a significant rebound in inflation, but rather the risk of an accelerated economic decline [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The strategy suggestion is bullish with oscillations [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The continuous deterioration of the US employment situation has increased market expectations for the number and amplitude of consecutive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. However, due to the relatively strong US dollar index, the increase in precious metals has been limited [2][27] - The increase in the expectation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts has led to a re - evaluation of the US dollar's competitiveness in the market. Although the US dollar index has been relatively strong recently, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate has been limited, and the short - term fluctuations caused by the exchange rate have had limited impact on precious metals [3] - As the expectation of a September interest rate cut strengthens, high - risk - appetite assets such as US stocks, copper, and crude oil may further strengthen, but the upward momentum of crude oil is limited due to production increase pressure [20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Market Review - The significant decline in US non - farm and employment data has increased market concerns about the US economic downturn. Currently, the market is trading on the amplitude and consecutive number of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Gold prices have been boosted by risk - aversion sentiment. Subsequently, gold and silver may rise simultaneously under the impetus of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectation, but may decline significantly after the interest rate cut is implemented. The upward trend of silver also needs to pay attention to the short - term fluctuations of gold [9] 3.2 Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The US Senate plans to hold a full - scale vote on Trump's nomination of Stephen Milan as a Federal Reserve governor on the evening of the 15th. If the nomination is approved, he will enter the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Committee and participate in subsequent interest rate decision - making votes [12] - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in September was 55.4, the lowest since May, with an expected value of 58. The preliminary value of the 5 - year inflation expectation rose for two consecutive months to 3.9% [12] - The global central bank reserve pattern is about to undergo a milestone change. The proportion of gold in the reserves of global central banks (excluding the Federal Reserve) has exceeded US Treasury bonds for the first time since 1996 [14] - In August, the US CPI was in line with expectations year - on - year, slightly higher than expected month - on - month. The core CPI was in line with expectations and the previous value both year - on - year and month - on - month. The number of initial jobless claims last week reached the highest level since October 2021 [14] - The annualized revised value of the US real GDP in the second quarter increased by 3.3% quarter - on - quarter, higher than the expected value and the initial value. The annualized revised value of the core PCE price index increased by 2.5% quarter - on - quarter, consistent with the initial value but lower than the expected value [14] - The US PPI inflation unexpectedly declined in August, providing new support for the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates next week [15] 3.3 Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.3.1 US Economy and Policy - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in September was at a five - month low, and the 5 - year inflation expectation rose for two consecutive months. The ISM manufacturing index in August was slightly higher than that in July but lower than expected, remaining below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months. The new orders index expanded for the first time since the beginning of this year, while the output index fell back into the contraction range. The current US economic data shows increasing downward pressure on the US economy [16] 3.3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Spain to hold talks with the US from September 14th to 17th to discuss issues such as US unilateral tariff measures, abuse of export controls, and TikTok. Trump has made a series of statements on sanctions against Russia, pressuring Europe to impose economic pressure on China, and imposing tariffs on semiconductor companies that do not transfer production to the US. After the successful completion of China's September 3rd military parade, the US has continued to release negative signals, intensifying geopolitical tensions [19] 3.3.3 Other Financial Markets - The US non - farm employment growth in August was far lower than expected, and the unemployment rate reached a new high since 2021. The US economic downward pressure has increased, indicating the necessity of interest rate cuts. The US service industry PMI in July reached a new high since December 2024. Crude oil is still greatly affected by production cuts, and there are differences in the trends of domestic and foreign copper prices. As the expectation of a September interest rate cut strengthens, high - risk - appetite assets may further strengthen, but the upward momentum of crude oil is limited [20] 3.3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate still passively tracks the US dollar index. With the increasing expectation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, the expectation of a decline in the US dollar index has increased, but the US dollar has shown good resilience. The offshore RMB exchange rate has continued to appreciate, but the appreciation range is limited. The RMB exchange rate is not a key consideration factor as its impact on gold is limited [24] 3.4 Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Due to the continuous deterioration of the US employment situation, market expectations for the number and amplitude of consecutive Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year have increased. However, due to the relatively strong US dollar index, the increase in precious metals has been limited [27]

Group 1 - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting suggests a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, indicating a cautious approach to economic conditions [2][3] - The U.S. labor market shows signs of balance with a July unemployment rate of 4.2%, but there are concerns about a possible future surge in layoffs if labor demand weakens further [2][3] - Tariffs are acknowledged to have a temporary impact on inflation, with Powell stating that the price increases from tariffs are unlikely to lead to a persistent inflationary spiral due to a relatively loose labor market [2][3] Group 2 - The urgency for interest rate cuts is increasing as the U.S. economy faces significant downward pressure, with a reported GDP contraction of 0.5% in Q1 2025 and a slowdown in growth to 2% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [4][5] - Employment indicators show a troubling trend, with non-farm payrolls being revised downwards and a rising unemployment rate, suggesting that the labor market may not be as strong as the unemployment rate indicates [5][6] Group 3 - Inflation pressures in the U.S. are persistent, with both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) showing upward trends, with core CPI and core PCE rising to 3.1% and 2.9% respectively [7][8] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to worsen, with estimates suggesting that Trump's tariff policies could raise inflation rates by 1.5% to 2% [8][9] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, influenced by historical lessons from the 1970s and 1980s regarding inflation control [10][11] - The recent fiscal measures under Trump's administration are projected to increase the federal deficit significantly, which may limit the Fed's ability to implement aggressive rate cuts [11][12] Group 5 - Trump's ongoing efforts to reshape the Federal Reserve's board could threaten the independence of the central bank, potentially impacting future monetary policy decisions [12][13] - The current political climate suggests that if Trump successfully consolidates control over the Fed, it may lead to significant shifts in monetary policy direction [12][13]

Core Insights - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for August was revised down from 58.6 to 58.2, indicating a continuous decline that suggests a contraction in consumer spending, a critical pillar of the U.S. economy [2] - The Chicago PMI for August also fell from 47.1 to 41.5, reinforcing the downward trend in the U.S. economy [2] - Recent inflation data, including the PCE price index, shows significant stickiness in inflation, raising concerns about a potential rebound in inflation rates [2] Economic Outlook - There is a prevailing market expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again in September; however, due to Chairman Powell's cautious stance, substantial and rapid rate cuts are unlikely, with only a few minor cuts expected to have minimal impact on the economy [2] - The uncertainty stemming from President Trump's tariff policies continues to pose risks to the U.S. economy, with the possibility of "black swan" events not being ruled out [2]

Core Points - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is interpreted as a signal for potential interest rate cuts, yet he maintains a cautious tone, leading to skepticism about the extent of future monetary easing [2] - The current federal funds rate is in a high range of 4.25% to 4.5%, indicating that any potential rate cuts may be limited, slow, and cautious before Powell's term ends in May next year [2] - The cautious approach to rate cuts may not significantly alleviate the negative pressure of high interest rates on the U.S. economy and could exacerbate inflationary pressures stemming from former President Trump's tariff policies, increasing economic uncertainty [2] Summary by Sections - **Interest Rate Outlook** - Powell's speech suggests a limited flexibility regarding interest rate cuts, rather than a clear indication of a resumption of rate cuts [2] - The high federal funds rate range indicates that any future cuts may be very cautious and gradual [2] - **Economic Implications** - The cautious rate cuts may not effectively relieve the U.S. economy from the burdens of high interest rates [2] - There is a risk of increased inflationary pressures due to tariff policies, which could worsen the economic situation [2] - The U.S. economy may face a more pronounced downward trend and heightened uncertainty [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates a decline in U.S. retail sales growth, with July retail sales month-on-month rate dropping from 0.9% to 0.5%, and core retail sales month-on-month rate decreasing from 0.8% to 0.3% [2] - The decline in retail sales suggests a risk of contraction in consumer spending, which is a crucial driver of the U.S. economy [2] - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for August also fell from 61.7 to 58.6, reflecting a decrease in consumer willingness to spend [2] Group 2 - There are widespread concerns that the inflation in the U.S. economy could significantly rebound due to President Trump's tariff policies; however, the contraction in consumer spending makes such a rebound less likely [2] - The article argues that the U.S. economic outlook is more likely to face a downturn rather than a significant inflation rebound, suggesting that even aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may not effectively boost the economy in the short term [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. retail sales data for July 2025 shows a month-on-month increase of +0.5%, aligning with expectations, while the previous month's figure was revised from +0.6% to +0.9%. Core retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, increased by +0.3%, also meeting expectations, but down from a revised +0.8% in June [2][4]. Market Reaction - Following the release of retail data, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices exhibited mixed performance, changing by +0.08%, -0.29%, and -0.40% respectively. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 4 basis points to 4.33%, while the 2-year yield increased by 1 basis point to 3.75% [3]. Analysis of July Consumer Data - The decline in July retail sales is attributed to the expiration of tariff exemptions on July 9, prompting consumers to make early purchases in June, which inflated that month's sales growth to +0.9%. As the tariff impact subsided, July's growth fell to +0.5%, indicating a downward trend in the U.S. economy [4][7]. - The July retail sales growth decline, coupled with weakening employment data, suggests a high probability of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts in the latter half of the year. Market expectations indicate two rate cuts in 2025, with the first anticipated in September [4][21]. Retail Sales Breakdown - In July, various sectors showed differing performance: non-durable goods such as sporting goods (+0.8%), non-store retail (+0.8%), and clothing (+0.7%) performed well, while grocery stores (-1.7%) and electronics (-0.6%) saw significant declines. Overall, automotive sales were a key driver, with core retail growth at only +0.3% when excluding automobiles [11][12]. - Service consumption showed signs of weakness, particularly in the restaurant and bar sector, which declined by -0.4%, while food and beverage stores increased by +0.5% [12]. - Gasoline prices remained stable in July, with average prices at $3.25 per gallon for gasoline and $3.78 for diesel, contributing to a +0.7% increase in gas station sales [13]. Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - The decline in retail sales and weak employment data point to a continued downward trend in the U.S. economy, increasing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve implementing interest rate cuts. The CME Fedwatch tool indicates a 92.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September 2025, with a second cut in October at 55.2% [21][22].