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海外策略周报:特朗普关税态度再度引发全球市场震荡-20251012
HUAXI Securities· 2025-10-12 13:28
Global Market Overview - The global market experienced significant fluctuations due to Trump's statements regarding tariffs, leading to a notable pullback in the US stock market, particularly on Friday [1][2] - The TAMAMA Technology Index's P/E ratio reached 38, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's P/E ratio hit 52.9, indicating high valuation levels [1][12] - The S&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio stands at 39.09, close to the 40 high range, second only to the peak at the end of 1999 [1][12] - Major European markets are expected to face adjustments due to economic and political uncertainties, as well as high P/B ratios in several key indices [1][12] - The Nikkei 225 index showed volatility, with expectations of further adjustments due to tight monetary policy and economic pressures in Japan [1][12] US Market Performance - The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all declined, with weekly drops of 2.43%, 2.53%, and 2.73% respectively [2][12] - The S&P 500 sectors mostly declined, with utilities showing the largest increase of 1.42%, while energy saw the largest decrease of 3.98% [12][16] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index, which tracks US-listed Chinese stocks, fell by 8.37%, indicating ongoing challenges for Chinese companies in the US market [18] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index both fell by 3.13% and 3.11% respectively, while the Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index increased by 0.87% [2][24] - The Hang Seng Technology Index dropped by 5.48%, reflecting the impact of external market pressures [24][39] - The best-performing sectors in Hong Kong included utilities, while non-essential consumer sectors faced the largest declines [28][39] Emerging Markets - Emerging markets such as Brazil's IBOVESPA, Mexico's MXX, and India's SENSEX30 are expected to experience adjustments due to the influence of US tariff policies and local economic issues [1][12] Key Economic Data - Japan's PPI year-on-year growth rate for September 2025 was 2.67%, slightly lower than the previous value of 2.68% [3][40] - The US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for October 2025 was reported at 61, an increase from 60.4 [42] - The Eurozone retail sales index showed a month-on-month growth of 0.1% for August 2025, up from a previous decline of 0.4% [46]