Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Pay attention to marginal changes in inventory [1] - Alumina: Oscillate with an upward bias [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Weaker than electrolytic aluminum [1] 2. Core Views - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including prices, trading volumes, open interests, spreads, and inventory levels [1]. - Morgan Stanley believes that regardless of the next Fed chair, the dovish influence will grow, and the US stocks may continue to rise under the expectation of interest - rate cuts [3]. - India hopes to reach an agreement with the US and obtain more favorable tariff rates than Indonesia [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum** - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,415 yuan, down 60 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - The LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,589 dollars, up 14 dollars from T - 1 [1]. - The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract changed compared with previous periods [1]. - **Alumina** - The closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 3,089 yuan, down 22 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai alumina main contract also had corresponding changes [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy** - The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 19,845 yuan, up 25 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - The trading volume and open interest of the aluminum alloy main contract decreased compared with previous periods [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum** - The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 471,000 tons, down 12,000 tons from T - 1 [1]. - The profit of electrolytic aluminum enterprises was 3,954.53 yuan, up 47.36 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Alumina** - The domestic average price of alumina was 3,196 yuan, up 5 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - The profit of Shanxi alumina enterprises was 249 yuan, up 5 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy** - The theoretical profit of ADC12 was - 305 yuan, down 31 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - The three - place inventory totaled 28,328 tons, up 332 tons from T - 1 [1]. 3.3 Other Information - **Trend Intensity** - Aluminum trend intensity: 0; Alumina trend intensity: 1; Aluminum alloy trend intensity: 0 [3]. - **Market News** - Morgan Stanley believes that the US stocks may rise under the expectation of interest - rate cuts [3]. - India hopes to get more favorable tariff rates in the negotiation with the US [3].