Group 1 - The Philippines is unofficially integrating Taiwan into its national and regional defense framework, despite officially adhering to the One China policy [1][2] - There is an increase in non-official defense and security contacts between the Philippines and Taiwan, including meetings between security officials and military leaders [1] - The military exchanges between the Philippines and Taiwan have reportedly deepened since President Marcos took office, with more deliberate efforts to enhance cooperation [1][2] Group 2 - President Marcos indicated that the Philippines cannot remain neutral if tensions arise between China and the U.S. over Taiwan, citing geographical factors [2] - The Philippines is rumored to consider formally recognizing Taiwan to leverage concessions from China regarding South China Sea disputes [2] - The U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty is seen as a factor that could draw the Philippines into a conflict over Taiwan, depending on U.S. commitments [3]

菲律宾国际安全研究学会主席罗美尔·班乐义就指出，所谓美国保卫菲律宾的军事行动并非自动触发。根据《美 菲共同防御条约》，若要真正落实军事行动，在美国国内必须经过一系列复杂程序；对菲律宾而言，其国会也 需讨论是否允许美国采取军事行动来保卫本国。这中间繁琐的政治流程，意味着一旦南海发生冲突，美国是否 会出兵相助存在极大不确定性。回顾历史，美国在诸多国际事务中对盟友的承诺并非都能兑现。在一些地区冲 突中，美国往往会因国内政治博弈、战略利益权衡等因素，对盟友的求助选择观望或仅提供有限援助。菲律宾 若将美国的这一承诺当作在南海挑衅中国的"护身符"，无疑是自欺欺人。 菲律宾防长（资料图） 在马科斯访美后不久，菲律宾防长特奥多罗迅速采取行动，对华打出强硬"挑衅牌"。他在美印太司令部会议上 大放厥词，妄称中国是东南亚"和平破坏者"，还鼓动国际干预南海，企图扩大《美菲共同防御条约》适用范 围，妄图引入外部势力搅乱南海局势。不仅如此，菲军方高层宣称，若自身无力应对中国，将寻求美国及其 他"志同道合国家"的支持。 据环球网报道，菲律宾总统马科斯不久前对美国进行了为期三天的正式访问。此次访问，马科斯本带着诸多期 待，然而结果却不尽如人 ...

Group 1 - Philippine President Marcos is on a three-day official visit to the United States, meeting with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, where the U.S. pledged to bolster military resources to counter China [1] - The U.S. officials view China as the biggest threat and reaffirmed their commitment to the 70-year-old Mutual Defense Treaty with the Philippines, which includes provisions for defense in the South China Sea [1] - The U.S. aims to create a strong deterrent shield to maintain peace, emphasizing readiness for decisive action without seeking confrontation [1] Group 2 - President Trump is expected to discuss tariffs with Marcos, threatening a 20% tariff on Philippine goods if no agreement is reached by August 1 [3] - Marcos may offer increased U.S. military access and mining concessions in exchange for lower tariffs, amid rising domestic criticism of high tariffs [3] - The current Philippine government is perceived as a strategic proxy for the U.S. in the Indo-Pacific, limiting its bargaining power in trade and security discussions [3]

Group 1 - Philippine President Marcos visited the United States to enhance cooperation amid a trade war, with the U.S. imposing a 20% tariff on the Philippines starting August 1, up from 17% previously [1][3] - The U.S. is unwilling to link tariffs with security issues, leading to unmet expectations from Marcos's visit [3][9] - The Philippines seeks U.S. support against China, but the U.S. has shown limited commitment to security guarantees despite existing defense treaties [5][7] Group 2 - Marcos's administration has shifted the Philippines' stance towards a more confrontational approach against China, contrasting with the previous administration's close cooperation [7] - The Philippines attempted to negotiate tariff concessions in exchange for clearer security assurances from the U.S., but the U.S. did not agree to this proposal [9] - The U.S. has historically treated its allies without leniency, as seen in its tariff policies towards the EU, indicating a tough stance on trade negotiations [9]