西方高层为何突然失算？他们能承受失去关键盟友的代价吗？ 编辑：YC 关税猛然加征 前言 2025年，美国突然挥舞关税大棒，将对印税率猛增至50%，直接重创其纺织业出口。 面对高压，莫迪不仅没有屈服，反而迅速访华加强双边联系，这一举动直接戳破了美国试图孤立对手的 幻想。 置身于2025年的地缘政治棋局，局势早已定调，但华盛顿的落子却充满了破坏力，美国商务部数据显 示，对印贸易逆差飙升至480亿美元，这成了白宫挥舞关税大棒的直接借口。 这波操作看似雷霆万钧，实则暗藏杀机，意图通过经济窒息，逼迫新德里在地缘选边站队上彻底低头， 50%的税率，对于一个依靠出口拉动就业的新兴市场来说，无异于一道冷铁筑成的墙。 摆在明面上的理由冠冕堂皇——制裁威胁国家安全，但核心逻辑指向非常明确：零和博弈，美国试图用 这种近乎窒息的战术，将印度驯化为遏制中国的"印太战略"前哨。 然而这种单边主义的霸权逻辑，恰恰忽略了国际关系中最基本的变量——生存，印度虽然被视作"关键 伙伴"，但在美国的算盘里，终究只是一枚可以随时牺牲的棋子。 这种不对等的关系，如同一根紧绷的弦，随时可能崩断，更严峻的挑战在于，这并非单纯的贸易争端， 而是一场关于国家尊 ...

#日本防卫预算创新高暗藏三大战略意图#【#美日双双提高军费预算意欲何为#？陈冰：美日在围堵中国 上"穿一条裤子"】美国与日本近期同步大幅提升军费，直新闻特约评论员陈冰认为，日本通过构建远程 打击体系、强化"第一岛链"前沿威慑、拓展空天网络等新领域作战能力等三大战略，配合美国"印太战 略"加强对华战略性包围；美国把遏制台海冲突作为优先事项，日本首相则公开叫嚣"台湾有事就是日本 有事"，可见美日在围堵中国上是"穿着一条裤子"。 （来源：直新闻） ...

【环球网报道】据日本共同社报道，日本外务大臣茂木敏充12月23日在记者会上公布了2026年外务省预算案。预 算案显示，日本政府2026年将加速向外国提供武器装备。 此外，据日本时事通讯社报道，在2026年预算案中，日本外务省还计划将250亿日元预算用在所谓"外国情报战对 策"。 OSA是基于2022年内阁会议敲定的《国家安全保障战略》，在2023年4月创设的框架。2023年度支援了菲律宾等4 国，预算额约20亿日元。2024年度预算额约50亿日元。 据报道，根据预算案，"政府安全保障能力强化支援"（OSA）的规模将被大幅扩充，预算资金达181亿日元（约合 8.15亿元人民币），较2025年的81亿日元增加了100亿日元。共同社声称，OSA是日本向其他国家提供武器装备和 技术的框架，该政策旨在提高对象国的军事实力，从而针对中国的海洋活动。 关于日本政府的OSA框架，辽宁大学美国与东亚研究院院长吕超此前接受《环球时报》采访时表示，近年来，日 本右翼势力不断抬头，日本防卫力量不断增强，其行动明显是在配合美国所谓"印太战略"，对中国实施战略性包 围。"通过OSA等活动，日本试图在地理上形成对中国的战略围堵。" 吕超称 ...

《亚洲时报》12月9日报道：特朗普政府最近发布的《国家防务战略》，在"确保美国继续保持全球第一 大经济体地位"这一点上，与前几任政府并没有太大的区别。简单来说，这份战略继续沿用了美国多年 来的两党共识：美国必须永远坐稳名义GDP第一的位置，而中国最好永远停留在第二的位置。然而，这 一立场完全是美国的一厢情愿。 一、两党共识的真面目 特朗普是一个大家都熟悉的人物。2025年，他将重新入主白宫，而他的风格依 旧是我们熟知的"特朗普味"——依靠推特治国、直言不讳、喜欢与媒体争锋。在国际事务中，特朗普上 任后便退出了一些国际组织，重新谈判了多个贸易协定，对中国更是采取了强硬态度，展现出一副"全 面开战"的姿态。 关税不断上调，科技领域的封锁清单也不断增加，像芯片、人工智能、量子计算等前 沿领域，几乎都被划上了"红线"。如果仅仅从这些动作来看，许多人会认为特朗普在试图将中美关系推 到不可挽回的地步。尽管中美经历了五轮经贸磋商，关税战暂时休战一年，并且特朗普还表示"预计明 年4月将访问中国"，但他在12月初发布的《国家防务战略》依然保持了既定的立场。 回顾一下民主党拜登政府的做法，甚至更早的奥巴马和小布什政府时期，你会发 ...

上任不过一个多月，日本首相高市早苗继在台海等问题上大放厥词引发一系列国际纠纷后，又把算盘打 到了"无核三原则"上。 据新华社报道，多名日本政府消息人士11月14日透露，日本首相高市早苗正探讨在修订《国家安全保障 战略》等"安保三文件"时，对"无核三原则"中不引进核武器的原则进行修改。 "无核三原则"指不拥有、不制造、不引进核武器。1967年，时任日本首相佐藤荣作在国会发言时提出 了"无核三原则"，并于1971年在日本众议院全体会议上获得通过，成为日本政府关于核武器的基本政 策。 如果高市早苗强行就此进行修改，无疑将意味着日本战后安保政策的重大转变，也必将引发国内外强烈 批评与反弹。 高市早就不满"无核三原则" 11月14日，据日本内阁消息人士透露，首相高市早苗正在考虑重新审视日本长期以来奉行的无核武器原 则。此举将标志着日本安全政策的重大转变。 作为历史上犯有侵略和法西斯罪责的"二战"战败国，日本战后一直宣称奉行《和平宪法》，但近十几年 来已在所谓的"正常国家化"幌子下大幅放松了战后军备限制。 尽管如此，2022年由岸田文雄内阁推动的《国家安全战略》等三份防务相关重要文件，仍继续强调"无 核三原则"。但高市早 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's extreme remarks regarding China link the Taiwan issue with Japan's new security law, suggesting potential military intervention in the Taiwan Strait [1] Group 1: Political Implications - Kishida's provocative statements aim to cater to Japan's right-wing forces and align with the U.S. "Indo-Pacific Strategy," seeking to break through the limitations of Japan's pacifist constitution and accelerate military expansion [1] - The remarks reflect a broader trend of rightward shift and systemic normalization of militarism in Japan [1] Group 2: Economic Impact - Deterioration of Sino-Japanese relations could directly impact Japan's economic lifeline, given the irreplaceable status of the Chinese market for Japan's economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shifting dynamics of global power balance due to changes in U.S.-India trade relations, particularly in the context of tariffs and oil imports from Russia [1][3][21]. Group 1: U.S.-India Trade Relations - Trump announced a potential reduction in tariffs on Indian goods, citing India's significant reduction in Russian oil purchases as a key factor [3][5]. - Previously, the U.S. imposed punitive tariffs of up to 50% on Indian goods, severely impacting India's textile, seafood, and jewelry industries [3][5][7]. - The rapid reversal of the situation saw India not retaliating strongly against the U.S. tariffs, leading to a perceived "victory" in the trade conflict [5][21]. Group 2: Impact of Russian Oil Imports - India had been importing approximately 2 million barrels of Russian oil daily, which constituted about 35% of its total oil imports before the sanctions [11][15]. - Following U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies, Indian refiners began to drastically cut their imports of Russian oil, with daily imports dropping to an estimated 119,000 barrels [13][15]. - The reduction in Russian oil imports is expected to significantly impact Russia's fiscal situation, as India was a crucial market for its oil exports [15][21]. Group 3: Geopolitical Implications - The U.S. tariffs are viewed as a strategic tool to achieve geopolitical goals, aiming to cut off funding to Russia amid the ongoing conflict [13][15]. - India's response to U.S. pressure has been critical, with officials highlighting perceived double standards in U.S. and European policies regarding oil imports [15][19]. - Despite the shift towards the U.S., Russia is attempting to maintain its relationship with India by offering nuclear technology transfers, indicating a complex balancing act in India's foreign policy [15][21]. Group 4: Future Trade Negotiations - Ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and India aim to finalize an initial agreement by fall 2025, with five rounds of discussions already completed [17][19]. - Key obstacles remain, particularly India's reluctance to open its agricultural and dairy markets, which are seen as critical to protecting local farmers [19]. - The disparity in tariff rates between India and Pakistan has heightened India's concerns regarding its trade position with the U.S. [19].

Group 1 - Russia's crude oil exports to India have significantly decreased to an average of 1.19 million barrels per day from 1.95 million barrels per day in the previous two weeks, indicating India's response to U.S. sanctions on Russian energy [1] - Indian refiners are adjusting operations in light of U.S. sanctions, with Reliance Industries halting purchases of Russian oil and state-owned companies reviewing trade documents to ensure compliance [2][3] - The shift in India's oil imports is notable, with Russian oil now accounting for approximately 35% of India's total crude imports, up from less than 3% previously [3] Group 2 - The U.S. has intensified pressure on India regarding its energy trade with Russia, including the withdrawal of sanctions waivers for the Chabahar port project, which is crucial for India's access to Afghanistan and Central Asia [4] - Despite the pressure, the U.S. has also moved towards a significant defense cooperation agreement with India, indicating a complex balancing act in U.S.-India relations [5] - The U.S. has imposed high tariffs on Indian goods, including a 50% tariff rate, which has led to tensions in trade relations, with India criticizing these measures as unfair [6] Group 3 - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with concerns in India about being sidelined in the emerging U.S.-China dynamics, particularly after the recent G2 discussions between the U.S. and China [7][8] - India's strategic positioning is challenged by the perception of being marginalized in the global power structure, leading to increased anxiety within its strategic community [7] - The evolving U.S. strategy appears to focus on preventing the rise of another competitor, which complicates India's aspirations for a more prominent role in global affairs [8] Group 4 - Recent improvements in Sino-Indian relations are noted, with high-level visits and resumed dialogues, suggesting a cautious approach to balancing relationships with both the U.S. and China [10][11] - The economic ties between China and India remain strong, with China being India's largest trading partner, indicating a complex interdependence despite geopolitical tensions [11] - The path to a harmonious relationship between India and China is expected to be gradual, requiring adjustments in India's strategic mindset towards its position relative to both China and the U.S. [12]

Group 1 - The Philippines and Canada signed the Visiting Forces Agreement to allow joint military exercises and expand their security alliance, primarily aimed at addressing China's military activities in the South China Sea [1][2] - This agreement is the first of its kind between Canada and a country in the Indo-Pacific region, aligning with Canada's strategy to enhance its military presence in the area since the announcement of its new Indo-Pacific strategy in 2022 [2] - The agreement requires approval from Philippine President Marcos and a two-thirds majority in the Senate to take effect, indicating a structured legal framework for military cooperation [1][2] Group 2 - The Philippines has previously signed similar agreements with the US, Australia, Japan, and New Zealand, and is currently negotiating with France and the UK, while considering talks with Germany and India [2] - Analysts suggest that the Visiting Forces Agreement is a geopolitical move to align with the US Indo-Pacific strategy, which may not contribute to regional stability and could lead to strategic disadvantages for the Philippines [3] - The introduction of external military forces is viewed as potentially counterproductive to regional peace, as historical precedents indicate that such actions often lead to division rather than security [3]

Group 1 - Trump's Asia trip aims to strengthen ties with allies while pressuring countries like Vietnam and Thailand for trade concessions [2][6] - The core objective in Japan and South Korea is to increase investments in the U.S. and solidify economic ties, while also addressing regional security issues related to China [2][7] - The anticipated U.S.-China talks at the end of the trip are framed as a potential breakthrough amidst ongoing trade tensions and recent U.S. export controls on Chinese companies [2][3] Group 2 - China's response to U.S. pressure includes increasing gold reserves, which have grown for eight consecutive months, indicating a strategic move to build financial security [3][7] - The trend of de-dollarization is accelerating globally, with countries reducing dollar reserves and adopting local currencies for trade, challenging the dominance of the U.S. dollar [9][11] - Japan's commitment to invest $550 billion and South Korea's $350 billion investment are seen as transactional rather than purely friendly gestures, reflecting a complex interplay of interests [9][13]