Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively analyzes the market trends, supply - demand situations, and price movements of soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil in both domestic and international markets. It emphasizes the importance of factors such as weather conditions in South American soybean - producing areas, US soybean export demand, and domestic inventory changes in China for market dynamics [8][15][23]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Soybeans**: As of November 21, the CBOT soybean 01 contract closed at 1126.50 cents per bushel, up 0.36% from the previous week. The price was affected by factors like NOPA's higher - than - expected US soybean crush in October and USDA's report of soybean sales to China. The US soybean harvest rate was 96%, slightly lower than historical and five - year average levels. The supply was expected to be sufficient, but the cumulative year - on - year decline in exports widened [8]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybean meal prices fell. The 12 - contract closed at $315.8 per short - ton, down 1.83%, and the 01 - contract at $319.8 per short - ton, down 1.20%. DCE soybean meal 01 contract closed at 3012 yuan per ton, down 2.59%. The decline was due to factors such as USDA's soybean sales report to China and high domestic inventory. Spot basis fluctuated slightly higher [13][15]. - **Soybean Oil**: CBOT soybean oil prices rose slightly. The 12 - contract closed at 50.28 cents per pound, up 0.26%, and the 01 - contract at 50.61 cents per pound, up 0.26%. DCE soybean oil 01 contract closed at 8190 yuan per ton, down 0.80%. The decline was affected by falling prices of related domestic vegetable oils and high domestic inventory. Spot basis remained volatile [20][23]. 2. Production Area Weather - **Brazil**: In the past week (11.14 - 11.21), rainfall was slightly lower than normal, and temperatures in the southern part were lower. In the next week (11.23 - 11.30), both rainfall and temperatures in the southern part are expected to be lower than normal [25][27]. - **Argentina**: In the past week (11.14 - 11.21), rainfall and temperatures were normal. In the next week (11.23 - 11.30), rainfall is expected to be lower than normal, and temperatures higher [33][35]. 3. International Supply and Demand - **US Soybeans**: - **Crop Conditions**: As of November 16, the harvest rate was 95%, lower than last year's 98% and the five - year average of 96% [40]. - **Export Inspection & Sales**: The weekly export inspection volume met expectations, but the cumulative year - on - year decline widened. The 25/26 annual export sales met expectations, and the cumulative year - on - year decline narrowed [41]. - **Soybean Crush**: In August 2025, the crush volume was 5940000 tons, up 18.19% year - on - year. As of October, the cumulative crush volume in the 25/26 season was 426 million bushels, up 12.8% year - on - year [43]. - **D4 RINs Price**: As of November 21, it was 100.5 cents, down 0.75 cents from November 14 [51]. - **Other News**: The US Department of Energy reorganized, prioritizing oil and nuclear resources [53]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: - **Yield Forecast**: Various institutions' forecasts for the 25/26 season range from 167.683455 million tons to 178.5 million tons [55]. - **Sowing Progress**: As of November 15, the sowing rate was 69.0% according to CONAB. Different states had different sowing progress and crop conditions [55][56]. - **Export Sales**: Anec raised the November export forecast to 4.71 million tons. As of the second week of November, the cumulative export in 2025 was 102.91 million tons, up 7.49% year - on - year [61]. - **Soybean Premium**: As of November 21, the premium quotes showed mixed trends [63]. - **Soybean Crush Profit & Volume**: The crush profit rose this week. In September 2025, the crush volume was 4.144 million tons, down 11.05% year - on - year [66][69]. - **Inventory**: As of September, the oil mill's soybean inventory was 14.39 million tons, up 12.36% year - on - year; the soybean oil inventory was 526000 tons, up 52.27% year - on - year; and the soybean meal inventory was 2.52 million tons, down 2.79% year - on - year [71]. - **Argentine Soybeans**: - **Sowing Progress**: As of November 20, the sowing rate was 25%. The sowing area forecast for the 25/26 season was lowered [74]. - **Farmer Sales**: The weekly sales of farmers increased. As of the 46th week of 2025, the 2025 sales progress was 82%, and the 2026 pre - sale progress was 6.2% [78]. - **Export Sales**: In October 2025, the soybean export volume was 1.296 million tons, up 1217.5% year - on - year. The export volumes of soybean meal and soybean oil also increased [81]. - **Soybean Crush Profit & Volume**: The crush profit fell this week. In October 2025, the crush volume was 4.036 million tons, down 2.66% year - on - year [85][87]. - **Inventory**: As of November 1, the oil mill's soybean inventory was 2798823 tons, up 10.07% year - on - year; the soybean oil inventory was 296624 tons, down 14.94% year - on - year; and the soybean meal inventory was 1050328 tons, up 7.44% year - on - year [89]. 4. Domestic Supply and Demand - **Soybean Oil Supply and Demand**: - **Import Procurement**: In October 2025, China imported 9.4025 million tons of genetically modified soybeans. As of October, the cumulative import was 95.1637 million tons, up 6.86% year - on - year [94]. - **Inventory**: As of November 14, the port inventory was 9.926 million tons, down 408000 tons week - on - week; the oil mill inventory was 7.4771 million tons, down 142400 tons week - on - week [95]. - **Arrival and Crush**: The arrival volume decreased, while the crush volume and operating rate increased [100]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume decreased this week [103]. - **Production and Apparent Consumption**: Both production and apparent consumption increased [104][106]. - **Inventory**: As of November 14, the commercial inventory was 1.1485 million tons, down 0.87 million tons week - on - week [108]. - **Soybean Meal Supply and Demand**: - **Production and Apparent Consumption**: Both production and apparent consumption increased [111]. - **Inventory**: The oil mill's inventory decreased, while the feed mill's physical inventory days increased [113]. - **Trading and Pick - up**: Both trading volume and pick - up volume increased [116]. - **Downstream Demand**: The losses in pig - raising and piglet - purchasing increased, and the pig price and pig - grain ratio decreased [118]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of November 21, the registered warehouse receipts on the DCE were 40357 lots [120]. 5. Domestic and International Oil Futures and Spot Prices, and Spreads - **Basis, Monthly Spreads, and Variety Spreads**: Analyzed the basis, monthly spreads of soybean oil and soybean meal, and variety spreads such as soybean oil - palm oil and rapeseed oil - soybean oil [124][129][132]. - **FOB Quotes**: Provided FOB quotes for soybean oil, soybean meal from different regions [137][139][140]. - **CFTC Positions**: Showed the net long positions of managed funds in CBOT soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil [142][143].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint The USDA May report shows that the ending stocks of US soybeans in the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons are expected to decline, with the 25/26 ending stocks lower than market expectations, having a bullish impact. However, the supply narrative for US soybeans in the 25/26 season remains to be seen, as there are uncertainties regarding whether the weather in the main producing areas can support a bumper harvest and whether the demand will be stable. The supply outlook may vary depending on factors such as yield, export volume, and tariff policies [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Production End - The USDA May report uses data from the March planting intention survey, expecting the soybean planting area to decrease from 87.1 million acres in the 24/25 season to 83.5 million acres in the 25/26 season due to poor planting profits [4]. - The estimated yield per acre in the 25/26 season is 52.5 bushels, the highest in the same period over the years, in line with the historical estimation trend. The yield will be first revised in the August report [4]. - As of May 11, 2025, the US soybean planting progress is 48%, higher than the five - year average of 37%, and the germination rate is 17%, higher than the five - year average of 11% [4]. - There is uncertainty about whether the 25/26 yield can maintain 52.5 bushels per acre. The current rainfall in the main producing areas is low, and good weather during the critical growth period is needed [5]. Export End - For the 24/25 season, the USDA May report increased the export forecast by 25 million bushels to 1.85 billion bushels. As of May 8, 2025, the cumulative export sales volume was 48 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 12.68%, higher than the report's forecast. The export demand is expected to be well - supported [11]. - For the 25/26 season, the forecast export volume is 1.815 billion bushels, a decrease of 35 million bushels year - on - year. The pre - sale progress is significantly slow, and the tariff policy remains a key concern for future export demand [12]. Crushing End - As of March 2025, the cumulative year - on - year increase in US soybean crushing declined. However, the market expects the cumulative year - on - year increase to rebound in April, and the 24/25 crushing is still well - supported [15]. - For the 25/26 season, the monthly report expects the crushing volume to be 2.49 billion bushels, with a year - on - year increase of 2.89%. The crushing growth rate slows down, and the adjustment of US biodiesel policy needs to be watched [16]. Ending Stocks - For the 24/25 season, the ending stocks were reduced by 25 million bushels to 350 million bushels. The possibility of further adjustment by the USDA is low [19]. - For the 25/26 season, under different yield and export scenarios, the supply situation varies. If the export volume is adjusted downward, the supply may turn loose; otherwise, the supply may be tight [19][20].