Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The 9 - month USDA supply - demand report's downward adjustment of US soybean yield was less than expected, while demand - side压榨 was increased and exports were further decreased. The ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 year was 300 million bushels, slightly higher than market expectations, bringing some negative impacts. However, the US soybean balance sheet remains tight, with the good - excellent rate dropping to 63% this week, and it may continue to decline due to less rainfall and high temperatures in the producing areas [7]. - In September, the expected arrival of soybeans in China is over 10 million tons, and soybean meal is expected to be in a inventory - accumulation cycle. In October, domestic soybeans are expected to start destocking, and the supply - demand gap of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year depends on Sino - US policy changes. On the demand side, short - term high inventory of pig and poultry farming supports feed demand, but policy - oriented control of pig inventory and weight is expected to affect long - term pig supply. Soybean meal has high cost - effectiveness and high pick - up volume [8]. - In terms of inventory, domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level; oil - mill soybean meal inventory has increased but is lower than the same period last year, and it is expected to be in an inventory - accumulation cycle in the short term; the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal have slightly decreased. Overall, due to the expectation of Sino - US tax cuts and the impact of the pig production capacity control symposium, M01 increased positions and volume declined today, the crushing profit deteriorated, and cost - side expectations provide support at the bottom, with an overall expected volatile trend [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis Data - **Soybean Meal Main Contract Basis (Zhangjiagang)**: On September 17, basis data for different regions and time periods are provided, such as Dalian with a value of 58 (25/26), Tianjin with 18, and different values for other regions and time intervals [5]. - **43% Soybean Meal Spot Basis**: Basis data for different regions and time periods are presented, including negative values like - 22 in some cases [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal Spot Basis**: Data for different regions and time periods are given, such as 129 in Guangdong with a change of - 14 [5]. 3.2 Spread Data - **Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: Spot spread in the factory area is 300, and the spread on the main contract is 542 [6]. 3.3 International and Inventory Data - **Soybean CNF Premium and Profitability**: Brazilian soybean CNF premium and import soybean crushing profit data are provided, with the Brazilian premium having different values in different months and a change of - 6 in one case, and the crushing profit being 293 yuan/ton [6]. - **Inventory Data**: Data on Chinese port soybean inventory, major oil - mill soybean inventory, feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, and major oil - mill soybean meal inventory are presented for different years from 2020 - 2025, showing trends of increase and decrease in different periods [6]. 3.4开机 and Pressing Data - **Oil - Mill Operating Rate and Soybean Pressing Volume**: Data on the operating rate (%) and soybean pressing volume (10,000 tons) of major oil mills from 2020 - 2023 are provided, showing different trends over time [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The 9 - month USDA supply - demand report's downward adjustment of US soybean yield was less than expected, with increased demand for crushing and decreased exports, resulting in a slightly higher than expected 25/26 US soybean ending inventory, bringing some bearish influence. However, the new US soybean balance sheet remains tight. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate dropped to 63% this week, and may continue to decline due to less rainfall and high temperatures in the production area recently [8]. - In September, the expected arrival volume of domestic soybeans is over 10 million tons, and soybean meal is expected to be in a stockpiling cycle. In October, domestic soybeans are expected to start destocking, and the supply - demand gap of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year depends on Sino - US policy changes [9]. - On the demand side, short - term high inventories of pigs and poultry support feed demand, but policy guidance to control pig inventory and weight is expected to affect future pig supply. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio and high提货 volume. - In terms of inventory, domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level; oil - mill soybean meal inventory has increased but is lower than the same period last year, and is expected to be in a short - term stockpiling cycle; the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has slightly declined. - Overall, the profit of domestic soybean purchase and shipping has deteriorated. Due to the comprehensive import cost support expectation of US soybean premium and basis, the downside space of the futures market is limited. It is recommended to go long on dips, and future attention should be paid to Sino - US policy changes [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Data Daily - On September 16, the basis of the soybean meal main contract (Zhangjiagang) showed different values in different regions. For example, in Dalian it was 39, in Tianjin - 1, in Rizhao - 41, etc. The 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main contract) also varied by region, such as - 11 in Zhangjiagang, - 61 in Dongguan, etc. There were also data on the basis of rapeseed meal, spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, and other related spread data [6]. - The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.0735, and the import soybean futures gross profit and other international data were presented, along with inventory data of Chinese port soybeans, major oil - mill soybeans, major oil - mill soybean meal, and the number of days of feed - enterprise soybean meal inventory. There were also data on the major oil - mill soybean crushing volume and the major oil - mill operating rate [7]. 3.2 Market Analysis - Supply side: The 9 - month USDA supply - demand report had an unexpected impact on the US soybean balance sheet. In China, the soybean arrival volume in September is expected to be high, and the soybean meal stockpiling situation is expected to change in different months. The supply - demand gap in the first quarter of next year depends on Sino - US policies [8][9]. - Demand side: The short - term high inventories of pigs and poultry support feed demand, but policy may affect future pig supply. Soybean meal has high cost - performance and high提货 volume [9]. - Inventory side: Domestic soybean inventory is at a high level, oil - mill soybean meal inventory is rising but lower than last year, and the number of days of feed - enterprise soybean meal inventory has slightly declined [9]. - Strategy: Due to cost support, the downside space of the futures market is limited, and it is recommended to go long on dips, with attention on Sino - US policy changes [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic soybean purchase and shipping profit has turned worse. Due to the comprehensive import cost support expectation of US premiums and discounts, the downside space of the futures market is limited. It is recommended to go long on dips. Later, focus on Sino - US policy changes [9] 3. Summary according to the Directory 3.1 Data Daily - On September 16th, the basis of the main contract of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was - 11, and the basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 143 with a decline of 3. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 523 with a decline of 15, and the price difference between the main contracts was 366 with an increase of 14. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.0735, and the import soybean futures margin was 299 yuan/ton with a decline of 6 [6][7] 3.2 Supply - demand and Inventory Analysis - Supply side: The reduction of US soybean yield per unit in the September USDA supply - demand report was less than expected. The demand side increased the crushing volume and continued to reduce exports. The ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 season was 300 million bushels, slightly higher than expected. The new balance sheet of US soybeans remained tight. The good - excellent rate of US soybeans dropped to 63%, and may continue to decline. The expected arrival volume of domestic soybeans in September is over 10 million tons, and soybean meal is expected to be in the inventory accumulation cycle. The supply - demand gap of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year depends on Sino - US policy changes [8][9] - Demand side: The short - term high inventory of pig and poultry breeding supports feed demand. Policy guidance to control pig inventory and weight is expected to affect long - term pig supply. The cost - performance of soybean meal is high, and the pick - up volume is at a high level [9] - Inventory side: Domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has increased but is lower than the same period last year, and is expected to be in the inventory accumulation cycle in the short term. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have slightly decreased [9]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint The USDA May report shows that the ending stocks of US soybeans in the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons are expected to decline, with the 25/26 ending stocks lower than market expectations, having a bullish impact. However, the supply narrative for US soybeans in the 25/26 season remains to be seen, as there are uncertainties regarding whether the weather in the main producing areas can support a bumper harvest and whether the demand will be stable. The supply outlook may vary depending on factors such as yield, export volume, and tariff policies [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Production End - The USDA May report uses data from the March planting intention survey, expecting the soybean planting area to decrease from 87.1 million acres in the 24/25 season to 83.5 million acres in the 25/26 season due to poor planting profits [4]. - The estimated yield per acre in the 25/26 season is 52.5 bushels, the highest in the same period over the years, in line with the historical estimation trend. The yield will be first revised in the August report [4]. - As of May 11, 2025, the US soybean planting progress is 48%, higher than the five - year average of 37%, and the germination rate is 17%, higher than the five - year average of 11% [4]. - There is uncertainty about whether the 25/26 yield can maintain 52.5 bushels per acre. The current rainfall in the main producing areas is low, and good weather during the critical growth period is needed [5]. Export End - For the 24/25 season, the USDA May report increased the export forecast by 25 million bushels to 1.85 billion bushels. As of May 8, 2025, the cumulative export sales volume was 48 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 12.68%, higher than the report's forecast. The export demand is expected to be well - supported [11]. - For the 25/26 season, the forecast export volume is 1.815 billion bushels, a decrease of 35 million bushels year - on - year. The pre - sale progress is significantly slow, and the tariff policy remains a key concern for future export demand [12]. Crushing End - As of March 2025, the cumulative year - on - year increase in US soybean crushing declined. However, the market expects the cumulative year - on - year increase to rebound in April, and the 24/25 crushing is still well - supported [15]. - For the 25/26 season, the monthly report expects the crushing volume to be 2.49 billion bushels, with a year - on - year increase of 2.89%. The crushing growth rate slows down, and the adjustment of US biodiesel policy needs to be watched [16]. Ending Stocks - For the 24/25 season, the ending stocks were reduced by 25 million bushels to 350 million bushels. The possibility of further adjustment by the USDA is low [19]. - For the 25/26 season, under different yield and export scenarios, the supply situation varies. If the export volume is adjusted downward, the supply may turn loose; otherwise, the supply may be tight [19][20].