二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 03 月 01 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 谢义钦 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017082 xieyiqin@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周CBOT豆类期货价格继续上涨。 一方面，市场预计中国对特朗普承诺的加购800万吨大豆将会认真执行，对美豆出口抱有较高的期待， 支撑较强。另一方面，EPA提交RVO提案，市场对上调生柴掺混量有所预期，给油脂市场带来支撑；最后，南 美南部地区的降水依然不足，可能对部分地区大豆单产形成损害，当然我们也应该看到巴西收割速度开始加 快，其丰产格局基本可以确定，且USDA年度展望论坛预计2026年美国大豆种植面积增加380万英亩等因素对 美豆价格形成压制。 总体看，美豆价格继续维持区间震荡的概率较大。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 美豆周度报告 所 期货研究 1.美豆总体观点与多空逻辑 图表1：美豆总体观点与多空逻辑 总体观点 南美丰产，没有牛市基础；需求有望好转，下方空间有限，总体震荡偏强，区间1000-1200美分/蒲式耳 空方逻辑 1、中国购买美豆后，特朗普政府对生柴添加政策的支持力度可能减弱 2、巴西进入收割阶 ...

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Date: February 9, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - **Domestic Soybean Meal Contracts**: For the soybean meal 2603 contract, the previous settlement price was 2988, the opening price was 2998, the highest price was 3016, the lowest price was 2983, the closing price was 2997, with an increase of 9 and a rise - fall rate of 0.30%. The trading volume was 41,502, and the open interest was 205,351, a decrease of 18,122. For the soybean meal 2605 contract, the previous settlement price was 2730, the opening price was 2737, the highest price was 2748, the lowest price was 2729, the closing price was 2735, with an increase of 5 and a rise - fall rate of 0.18%. The trading volume was 637,898, and the open interest was 2,156,556, a decrease of 55,549. For the soybean meal 2607 contract, the previous settlement price was 2696, the opening price was 2700, the highest price was 2710, the lowest price was 2698, the closing price was 2702, with an increase of 6 and a rise - fall rate of 0.22%. The trading volume was 42,403, and the open interest was 497,245, a decrease of 11,081 [6] - **External Market**: The US soybean futures contract fluctuated, with the main contract approaching 1100 cents. The rebound was due to news that after the call between Chinese and US leaders, Trump praised the good relationship with China on social media and revealed that China would increase the purchase of US soybeans from 12 million tons to 20 million tons. However, due to Trump's inconsistent statements, the market priced it cautiously and awaited verification from weekly export data [6] - **South American Market**: In Brazil, the soybean production is set, and the harvest is accelerating. In the next month, large - scale harvesting is expected, which may put pressure on FOB quotes. In Argentina, the early weather was dry, but the latest forecast shows normal rainfall and cool climate in the next two weeks, which is beneficial for yield recovery [6] Operational Suggestions - Given the volatile weather in Argentina and international trade policies during holidays, it is recommended to gradually reduce positions next week [6] Group 3: Industry News - The US Treasury Department issued a proposed 45Z rule on Tuesday to regulate how biofuel producers can obtain a $1 - per - gallon tax credit for low - carbon fuels (including aviation fuel). However, some issues remain unanswered, such as the composition of the revised climate model that may affect fuel eligibility and the implementation of the foreign raw material ban [7] Group 4: Data Overview - **USDA Pressing Data**: In December, the US soybean pressing volume reached 229.9 million bushels (equivalent to 6.896 million short tons), a 4.2% increase from November and a 5.6% increase from December 2024. It was the second - highest monthly pressing volume, second only to October 2025 [14] - **Crop Expert Forecast**: The expected soybean production in Argentina for the 2025/26 season is 48 million tons, lower than the previous week's forecast of 49 million tons and the USDA's current estimate of 48.5 million tons. The southern planting area in Argentina has become drier recently, with insufficient rainfall in the coming weeks. The expected soybean production in Brazil for the 2025/26 season remains at a record 179 million tons and may be maintained or increased in the future [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The USDA's January supply - demand report maintained the 2025/26 US soybean yield at 33 bushels per acre, further reduced US soybean exports to 1.575 billion bushels, and increased the end - of - season inventory forecast for 2025/26 to 350 million bushels, with the US soybean stock - to - consumption ratio rising to 8.2%. The report also predicted Brazil's 2025/26 soybean output at 178 million tons and kept Argentina's soybean output unchanged. As Brazil's harvest progresses, the QNF premium in Brazil is expected to reflect the selling pressure of a bumper soybean harvest. Coupled with the pressure on the rapeseed - meal relationship due to improved China - Canada relations, the M05 contract is expected to face downward pressure [7] - The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels, and it is expected that the inventory will be depleted at an accelerated pace in January. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has slightly increased [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Basis Data - On January 16, 43% soybean meal spot basis: Dalian was 493 (up 13), Tianjin was 433 (down 7), Rizhao was 393 (up 13), Zhangjiagang was 373 (down 7), Dongguan was 373 (up 13), Zhanjiang was 423 (down 7), and Fangcheng was 433 (up 13). Rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 157 (up 28). M3 - 5 was 351 (down 9), and RM5 - 9 was - 68 (unchanged) [4] 3.2. Inventory Data - The report presents charts of national major oil mills' soybean inventory, China's port soybean inventory, national major oil mills' soybean meal inventory, and feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days from 2020 - 2026, but no specific numerical data is summarized [9][10] 3.3.开机 and压榨情况 (开机 and Pressing Situation) - The report shows the charts of the national major oil mills'开机 rate (operating rate), soybean pressing volume, and downstream提货量 (pick - up volume) from 2020 - 2026, but no specific numerical data is summarized [6] 3.4. Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 600, and the spread on the main contract was 472 (up 15). The Brazilian soybean CNF premium in 2025 and the import soybean gross profit on the futures market are presented in the chart, but no specific numerical data is summarized. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 6.9381, and the futures market crushing profit was 165 yuan/ton [9] 3.5. International Data - As of January 10, 2026, Brazil's soybean harvest rate was 0.6%. As of January 14, Argentina's soybean sowing progress was 93.9%, slightly behind the same period last year. The proportion of soybeans in good condition was 61% (last week: 65%, same period last year: 38%). Based on domestic ship - booking, the expected domestic soybean arrivals in January were 6.2 million tons, 5.1 million tons in February, and 4.58 million tons in March [7]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The soybean meal market is experiencing fluctuations in sales and pricing, with significant changes in import and export activities impacting the overall supply dynamics. Group 1: Market Transactions - On January 14, the total soybean meal transaction volume at major oil mills nationwide reached 928,200 tons, an increase of 580,000 tons compared to the previous trading day, with spot transactions accounting for 134,600 tons [1] - Coastal regions reported ordinary protein soybean meal basis quotes ranging from M2605-20 to M2605-60 yuan/ton, reflecting a decrease of 10 to 20 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week [1] Group 2: Export and Import Insights - Private exporters reported sales of 334,000 tons of soybeans to China, with cumulative purchases for the 2025/26 marketing year expected to be around 11.5 million tons, nearing the target of 12 million tons [2] - In December, China's soybean imports totaled 8.044 million tons, with total imports for the year reaching a record high of 111.833 million tons [3] Group 3: Production and Demand Trends - Domestic oil mills are increasing their operating rates, leading to a rise in soybean meal production, which is essential for feed and livestock enterprises preparing for peak season demand [3] - The USDA supply and demand report indicated that U.S. soybeans are experiencing weak fluctuations, with the market closely monitoring export conditions and potential weather impacts in South America [3]

Report Summary Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - From December 29, 2025, to January 2, 2026, US soybean futures prices declined due to limited Chinese purchases, weak US soybean export data, and South American weather pressure. During the week of January 2, the main March contract of US soybeans dropped 2.4%, and the main March contract of US soybean meal fell 3.74% [1]. - Before the holiday (December 29 - 31, 2025), domestic soybean meal futures prices rose first and then fell, while soybean futures prices rose strongly. After the holiday (January 5 - 9, 2026), it is expected that both Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures prices will fluctuate [1][5]. Detailed Summaries by Content International Soybean Market Fundamentals (December 29, 2025 - January 2, 2026) - Chinese purchases of US soybeans were limited, with a cumulative sales volume of approximately 36.7 tons to China and unknown destinations and 10 tons to Egypt in the week of December 29 - January 2. As of the week of December 18, 2025, China's purchases of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season totaled about 603 tons [1]. - As of the week of December 18, 2025, the export shipments of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season were about 85 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 46%; the cumulative export shipments were about 1401 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 47% [1]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased week - on - week. As of the week of December 31, 2025, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for February 2026 delivery increased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost decreased week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the futures market increased week - on - week [1]. - As of the week of December 31, 2025, the planting progress of Argentine soybeans in the 2025/26 season was about 82%, behind the 93% of the same period last year, gradually approaching the end [1]. - According to the January 2 weather forecast, in the next two weeks (January 3 - 17, 2026), precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil will be slightly less, and temperatures will be "low first and then high"; in Argentina, precipitation will be less (improving from January 8), and temperatures will be low [1]. Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market (December 29 - 31, 2025) - Trading volume increased week - on - week. The average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 20 tons, compared with about 16 tons in the previous week [3]. - Pick - up volume decreased slightly week - on - week. The average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 18.2 tons, compared with about 18.3 tons in the previous week [3]. - The basis increased slightly week - on - week. The weekly average basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about 356 yuan/ton, compared with about 353 yuan/ton in the previous week and about 252 yuan/ton in the same period last year [3]. - Inventory increased slightly week - on - week and year - on - year. As of the week of December 26, 2025, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 103 tons, a week - on - week increase of about 3% and a year - on - year increase of about 65% [3]. Domestic Soybean Spot Market (December 29 - 31, 2025) - Soybean prices were stable and slightly stronger. The purchase price of clean soybeans in some northeastern regions increased by 40 - 60 yuan/ton week - on - week, remained flat in some inland areas, and the sales price in the sales areas of northeastern edible soybeans increased by 40 - 80 yuan/ton week - on - week [4]. - The state - reserve soybean auction had good results, but the premium decreased. On December 29, the planned auction volume was about 19 tons, the actual transaction volume was about 15.59 tons, the reserve price was 3950 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 4014 yuan/ton, with a premium of 0 - 180 yuan/ton [4]. - The trading of soybeans in the sales areas was slow, but attention should be paid to the subsequent restocking demand. As the Spring Festival approached, there was restocking demand in all market segments, and prices may rise [4]. Post - holiday Forecast (January 5 - 9, 2026) - For soybean meal, pay attention to US soybean export demand (Chinese purchases, weekly US soybean export sales reports) and South American weather [5]. - For soybeans, due to the strong pre - holiday policy sentiment but the weak external soybean market, it is expected that the domestic futures market will fluctuate after the pre - holiday rise. Pay attention to the subsequent state - reserve release [5].

Group 1: General Information - Report date: December 24, 2025 [2] - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review Futures Contracts - For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3047, the opening price was 3053, the highest price was 3057, the lowest price was 3041, the closing price was 3047, with no change (0.00% change), the trading volume was 94,913, the open interest was 181,527, and the open interest decreased by 60,292 [6] - For the soybean meal 2603 contract, the previous settlement price was 3016, the opening price was 3029, the highest price was 3031, the lowest price was 2997, the closing price was 3006, down 10 (-0.33% change), the trading volume was 136,340, the open interest was 633,980, and the open interest increased by 3,895 [6] - For the soybean meal 2605 contract, the previous settlement price was 2740, the opening price was 2741, the highest price was 2749, the lowest price was 2736, the closing price was 2745, up 5 (0.18% change), the trading volume was 568,687, the open interest was 2,151,398, and the open interest increased by 17,263 [6] External Market - The US soybean futures contract on the external market fluctuated today, with the main contract approaching 1060 cents. Last week, there was insufficient driving force on the external market, and the December monthly supply - demand report was mediocre. The market has recently focused on the US soybean export end and the performance of new crops in South America [6] - In terms of exports, China is still in the process of purchasing US soybeans in an orderly manner. As of mid - December, China has purchased over 7.65 million tons of US soybeans. However, currently, other countries are purchasing fewer US soybeans and more from Brazil, resulting in the current US soybean export sales volume being nearly 40% lower than the same period last year [6] - Regarding new crops in South America, the overall situation is bearish. Brazilian soybeans are gradually entering the critical growth period, with good rainfall overall. If this trend continues after January, Brazil is likely to have a bumper harvest. In Argentina, although it was dry in the early stage, it is still in the middle and late sowing stage and has not entered the critical weather - growth stage, and the rainfall is expected to improve in the next two weeks [6] Domestic Market - The increase in the auction frequency makes it difficult for the domestic soybean meal spot market to be in short supply in the future, and the current soybean inventory at ports is still at a relatively high level, with overall insufficient bullish factors. In the short term, domestic futures are expected to be weaker than the external market and have a certain demand for a supplementary decline. Potential bullish factors are changes in South American weather and the USDA's adjustment of production in January, but there is no driving force at the current time [6] Group 3: Industry News USDA Export Sales Report - As of the week ending December 4, US soybean export sales increased by a net of 1.5525 million tons, in line with expectations. The net increase in US soybean export sales for the current market year was 1.5521 million tons, a 40% increase from the previous week and a 34% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The market had expected a net increase of 0.8 - 2 million tons. Among them, the net increase in export sales to the Chinese mainland was 1.011 million tons [7] - The net increase in US soybean export sales for the next market year was 40,000 tons, and the market had expected a net increase of 0 tons. The US soybean export shipments were 1.0711 million tons, a 33% increase from the previous week and a 6% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. Among them, the shipments to the Chinese mainland were 71,000 tons. The new sales of US soybeans for the current market year were 1.6726 million tons, and the new sales for the next market year were 40,000 tons [7][8] AgRural Forecast - AgRural predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season will reach 180.4 million tons, higher than the 178.5 million tons previously estimated in November. Brazil is the world's largest soybean producer and exporter, with a production of 171.5 million tons in the previous season [8]

Report Overview - Report Date: December 23, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term external market has insufficient bullish factors and may test the support at 1050 cents. Considering the reduced pressure on the new - season ending inventory, there is expected to be some support at the bottom [6]. - In the domestic market, the increase in auction frequency and high port soybean inventory lead to insufficient bullish factors. The futures market is expected to be weaker than the external market in the short term, with a need for a supplementary decline. It is not advisable for bulls to buy the dip for now. Potential bullish factors are changes in South American weather and the USDA's output adjustment in January, but there is no driving force at present [6]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review** - **External Market**: The US soybean futures contract fluctuated, with the main contract approaching 1060 cents. The 12 - month supply - demand report was mediocre. China has purchased over 765 tons of US soybeans as of mid - December, and it is not difficult to complete the 1200 - ton purchase target. However, other countries have shifted to Brazil, and the current US soybean export sales are nearly 40% lower than the same period last year. In South America, Brazil's new - season rainfall is good, and most major producing states have no severe drought problems. Argentina is in the late sowing stage, and the rainfall has improved in the next two weeks [6]. - **Domestic Market**: The increase in auction frequency makes it difficult for the soybean meal spot market to be in short supply, and the port soybean inventory is at a relatively high level [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The futures market is expected to be weaker than the external market in the short term, with a need for a supplementary decline. Bulls should not buy the dip for now [6]. 3.2 Industry News - In Brazil, the soybean planting area in Rio Grande do Sul has reached 76% of the expected 6.74 million hectares, lower than last year's 80% and the historical average of 84% due to dry weather during the planting period. However, the average yield per unit is still expected to be 3180 kg/ha, a significant increase from the previous year [7]. - In Argentina, as of December 11, the soybean planting rate in the 2025/26 season was 58%, up from 49% last week but lower than 66% in the same period last year [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the soybean meal ex - factory price, basis of the soybean meal 01 contract, 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, USD/CNY central parity rate, and USD/BRL exchange rate, but no specific data analysis is presented in the text [14][17][18].

1. Industry - The report focuses on the soybean meal industry [1] 2. Date - The report is dated December 22, 2025 [2] 3. Research Team - The agricultural product research team consists of Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] 4. Market Review 4.1 Futures Contract Quotes - For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3054, opening at 3049, reaching a high of 3052, a low of 3022, and closing at 3043, down 11 or -0.36%. The trading volume was 216,053, the open interest was 298,537, with a decrease of 88,955 [6] - For the soybean meal 2603 contract, the previous settlement price was 3007, opening at 3008, reaching a high of 3011, a low of 2992, and closing at 3006, down 1 or -0.03%. The trading volume was 103,015, the open interest was 644,846, with a decrease of 4,047 [6] - For the soybean meal 2605 contract, the previous settlement price was 2745, opening at 2745, reaching a high of 2748, a low of 2726, and closing at 2735, down 10 or -0.36%. The trading volume was 645,772, the open interest was 2,116,090, with a decrease of 1,374 [6] 4.2 External Market Situation - The US soybean futures contract on the external market declined, with the main contract approaching 1060 cents. The main US soybean contract on the external market continued to fall this week, dropping to 1060 cents [6] - The market is mainly focused on US soybean exports and the performance of new crops in South America. As of mid - December, China has purchased over 7.65 million tons of US soybeans, and it is not difficult to complete the previously claimed 12 million tons of purchases. However, other countries have reduced their purchases of US soybeans and shifted more to Brazil, resulting in US soybean export sales being nearly 40% lower than the same period last year [6] - In South America, the new crop situation is generally bearish. Brazilian soybeans are gradually entering the critical growing period, with sufficient rainfall in most major producing states, and the expected rainfall in the main producing areas in the next two weeks is still abundant. If this trend continues after January, Brazil is likely to have a bumper harvest. In Argentina, although it was dry in the early stage, it is still in the late sowing period, not yet in the critical weather - sensitive growth stage, and the rainfall has improved in the next two weeks [6] 4.3 Domestic Market Situation - The increase in the frequency of auctions makes it difficult for the domestic soybean meal spot market to be in short supply, and the current soybean inventory at ports is still at a relatively high level, with overall limited bullish factors. In the short term, domestic soybean meal futures are expected to be weaker than the external market and may have a need to catch up with the decline. Potential bullish factors include changes in South American weather and USDA's output adjustment in January, but there is currently no driving force [6] 5. Industry News - In the 2025/26 season, the soybean planting area in Rio Grande do Sul, a major oilseed - producing state in Brazil, has reached 76% of the estimated 6.74 million hectares, lower than 80% in the same period last year and the historical average of 84% due to dry weather during the planting period. However, the average yield per unit area is still expected to be 3180 kg/ha, a significant increase compared to the drought - affected previous year of 2009 kg/ha [7][9] - As of December 11, 2025, the soybean planting rate in Argentina in the 2025/26 season was 58%, up from 49% last week and lower than 66% in the same period last year [9] 6. Data Overview - The report provides data on various aspects such as the spread between soybean meal contracts, exchange rates, and prices, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views 2.1 Bean Meal - Bean meal M2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2720 - 2780. The market is neutral, with the basis being positive, inventory increasing, the price below the 20 - day moving - average, the main short positions decreasing and funds flowing out. In the short - term, it may show a weak oscillation pattern due to factors like the uncertainty of China's soybean purchases from the US and the high arrival volume of imported Brazilian soybeans [9]. 2.2 Soybean - Soybean A2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 4100 - 4200. The market is neutral, with a negative basis, increasing inventory, the price below the 20 - day moving - average, the main short positions increasing and funds flowing out. The domestic soybean price is affected by the execution of the China - US trade agreement and the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans [11]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - Not provided in the content 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary China - US tariff negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases from the US and the US soybean weather are still uncertain. The domestic arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills also declined from the high level. The reduction of domestic pig - farming profits led to a low expectation of pig restocking, weakening the demand for bean meal in November [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1 Bean Meal - **Long factors**: The preliminary China - US trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; there is no pressure on the bean meal inventory of domestic oil mills; the weather in the US and South American soybean - producing areas is still uncertain [14]. - **Short factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in November remained relatively high; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on the impact of the US soybean harvesting weather and the follow - up of the preliminary China - US trade agreement [15]. 3.3.2 Soybean - **Long factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the price expectation [16]. - **Short factors**: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans [16]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on the impact of the US soybean weather and the China - US trade tariff game [16]. 3.4 Fundamental Data 3.4.1 Transaction Data - From December 2 to December 10, the trading volume of bean meal fluctuated, and the price also showed slight fluctuations. During this period, the trading volume of rapeseed meal was mostly 0, and only on December 10, 0.6 tons were traded. The average price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly [17]. 3.4.2 Price Data - From December 3 to December 10, the prices of soybean futures and bean meal futures fluctuated. The prices of soybean and bean meal spot were relatively stable, with bean meal futures oscillating downward and the spot discount narrowing slightly [19][24]. 3.4.3 Warehouse Receipt Data - From December 1 to December 10, the warehouse receipts of soybeans and bean meal had different degrees of changes. For example, the bean - 1 warehouse receipts increased from 15,645 to 16,664, and the bean - 2 warehouse receipts changed from 4900 to 7100. The bean - meal warehouse receipts increased from 9450 to 23,830 and then remained stable [21]. 3.4.4 Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - **Global soybean supply - demand balance sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, total supply, total consumption, and ending inventory of global soybeans all showed an overall upward trend, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [33]. - **Domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, import volume, total supply, total consumption, and ending inventory of domestic soybeans all changed to varying degrees, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [34]. 3.4.5 Sowing and Harvesting Progress - **2023/24 Argentina**: The sowing and harvesting progress of soybeans in 2023/24 was compared with the same period last year and the five - year average. Generally, the sowing progress was slightly faster than the same period last year but slightly slower than the five - year average, and the harvesting progress was faster than the same period last year and the five - year average [35]. - **2024 US**: The sowing, growth, and harvesting progress of soybeans in 2024 were compared with the same period last year and the five - year average. The overall sowing and growth progress was close to the same period last year and the five - year average, and the harvesting progress was faster than the same period last year and the five - year average [36][37][39]. - **2024/25 Brazil**: The planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in 2024/25 was compared with the same period last year and the five - year average. The overall planting and harvesting progress was close to the same period last year and the five - year average [40][41]. - **2024/25 Argentina**: The planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in 2024/25 was compared with the same period last year and the five - year average. The overall planting progress was slightly faster than the same period last year and close to the five - year average [42]. - **2025 US**: The harvesting progress of soybeans on September 21 was 9% [43]. - **2025/26 Brazil**: As of November 29, 2025, the planting progress of soybeans was 86%, compared with 90% in the same period last year and 84.4% of the five - year average [44]. - **2025/26 Argentina**: As of November 26, 2025, the planting progress of soybeans was 36%, compared with 37% in the same period last year and 45% of the five - year average [45]. 3.4.6 USDA Supply - Demand Report - From April to November 2025, the planting area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, new - bean export, and crushing volume of US soybeans changed to varying degrees. The expected output of Brazilian soybeans in November was 1.75 billion tons, and that of Argentine soybeans was 0.485 billion tons [46]. 3.4.7 Other Data - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased from the high level in November but increased year - on - year as a whole. The soybean inventory of oil mills remained at a high level, and the bean - meal inventory returned to a high level. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills fell to a low level, and the stocking demand decreased. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills decreased from the high level, and the bean - meal output in September increased year - on - year. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans oscillated and rebounded following the US soybeans, and the on - paper profit fluctuated slightly [47][49][50]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the content

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Douyi: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Doupo: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Douyou: ★★★, suggesting a clearer upward - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Palm oil: ★★★, suggesting a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Caipo: ★☆☆, suggesting a bearish bias, with a driving force for price decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Caiyou: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias, with a driving force for price decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Corn: ★★★, suggesting a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Live pigs: ★☆☆, suggesting a bearish bias, with a driving force for price decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆, suggesting a bearish bias, with a driving force for price decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - The overall performance of agricultural products in the market shows different trends, with some products affected by supply - demand relationships, policies, weather, and other factors [2][3][4] - Different agricultural products have different price trends, and investment strategies should be adjusted according to the specific situation of each product [3][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Douyi - The main contract of Douyi shows a reduction in positions and a price decline. The spot price of domestic soybeans is stable and firm. The price of US soybeans is affected by South American weather and US soybean exports, and is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium - term. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy and spot performance of domestic soybeans [2] Soybeans & Doupo - The price of Dalian Doupo futures fluctuates weakly. Attention should be paid to the December USDA global agricultural product supply - demand report. The 05 contract has not broken through the upper edge of the box. Whether it can break through upward in the medium - term depends on US soybean exports and the impact of the La Nina weather in South America. The strategy is to observe whether it can break through upward and look for long - entry opportunities later [3] Douyou & Palm oil - The market expects that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia in November is still increasing, with high inventory pressure. If the supply - side production reduction continues, the signal of a phased price bottom will be prominent, but the rebound strength is limited. The medium - term of Douyou also needs to pay attention to policy changes. The domestic soybean crushing profit is improving. The overall view of soybean and palm oil is range - bound, and short - term attention should be paid to the fundamentals of the oil market [4] Caipo & Caiyou - The Caisi market continues its weak trend, and the external rapeseed price is under pressure. The production of Canadian rapeseed in 2025 is estimated to be higher than expected, and the supply of the Caisi market has temporarily eased after Australian rapeseed arrives at the port. The domestic demand for Caisi is still weak, and the futures price of Caisi will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [6] Corn - The Dalian corn futures C2601 contract rose 0.97% after rising and then falling, but the subsequent contracts lack upward momentum. The supply - demand mismatch in the corn market still exists. Future attention should be paid to the sales progress of new corn in the Northeast and the auction of overdue wheat. The 01 contract should be observed first, and the 03 and 05 contracts should wait for a pullback [7] Live pigs - Live pig futures are running weakly, and the 03 contract has hit a new low. The inventory of breeding sows in November continued to decline slightly month - on - month. The southern curing will gradually start, and the supply side has the pressure of fattening pigs for secondary fattening to be sold. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig price is likely to form a second bottom in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - Egg futures are slightly weak, and the spot price in most parts of the country has declined. The current supply pressure is high, and the forward - looking inventory decline expectation has ended. The 01 contract has a premium over the spot, and a short - selling strategy is recommended for the near - term contract [9]