Report Title - "Supply Bullish Factors Increase, Futures Prices Rise Significantly" [2] Report Date - August 13, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean meal futures market is bullish due to cost - side increases, but the follow - up depends on domestic imports; the rapeseed meal market has significant fluctuations, and the far - month market is more favorable. The soybean meal inter - monthly spread may continue to decline, while the rapeseed meal inter - monthly spread may strengthen, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread may narrow in the short term [4][9] Market Review - The US soybean futures showed a significant upward trend today. The monthly supply - demand report was bullish, driving the futures up. The domestic soybean meal futures also rose, with limited market changes but obvious cost - side push. The rapeseed meal futures had larger fluctuations, and multiple contracts hit the daily limit. The main driver was the potential impact on the subsequent supply of Canadian rapeseed [4] Fundamental Analysis US Soybeans - The old - crop balance sheet is bullish, with exports almost completed and crush adjusted upward, leading to a decrease in ending stocks. For the new - crop, although the yield per acre increased, the significant reduction in planted area tightened the supply. The new - crop cumulative exports are slow. The new - crop stock - to - use ratio may not show significant bullishness at the current price level [5] South American Soybeans - The old - crop supply in South America is generally loose. The soybean production of major exporting countries is expected to increase by 15.39 million tons, and the crush volume by 8.21 million tons. The overall ending stocks or exports may increase. Brazilian farmers' selling progress is slow, but they are optimistic about future exports [5] International Soybean Meal - The international soybean meal supply pressure is obvious. The annual soybean crush volume in major producing areas is expected to increase by 21.536 million tons, while the imports of major importing countries only increase slightly [5] Domestic Market - The domestic soybean meal spot market is loose, with high oil - mill operating rates, sufficient supply, and increased提货量. As of August 8, the actual soybean crush volume was 2.1775 million tons, the operating rate was 61.21%, the soybean inventory was 7.1056 million tons (up 8.38% week - on - week), and the soybean meal inventory was 1.0035 million tons (down 3.66% week - on - week). The domestic rapeseed meal demand is weakening, with a decline in the oil - mill operating rate, but the overall supply is still sufficient. As of August 8, the rapeseed crush volume in coastal areas was 63,200 tons, the operating rate was 16.84%, the rapeseed inventory was 138,800 tons (down 22,800 tons week - on - week), and the rapeseed meal inventory was 32,000 tons (up 5,000 tons week - on - week) [7] Macro - analysis - The Sino - US negotiations in London have ended, but there is no clear information. The market is still worried about supply uncertainty. Although the macro - disturbances are decreasing, China's high demand for US soybeans in the long - term means that prices are unlikely to fall sharply in the short term [8] Logical Analysis - The domestic soybean meal futures are bullish due to cost - side increases, but the follow - up depends on domestic imports. The rapeseed meal market has significant fluctuations. After the preliminary anti - dumping ruling, the final ruling is likely to impose tariffs, which is favorable for the rapeseed meal market. The soybean meal inter - monthly spread may continue to decline due to spot pressure, while the rapeseed meal inter - monthly spread may strengthen, especially for the far - month spread. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread may narrow in the short term [9] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Buy on dips - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM05 spread - Options: Wait and see [10]