Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the CBOT July soybean contract rose 1.19% to 1059.25 cents per bushel, the soybean meal 09 contract rose 0.33% to 3031 yuan per ton, the South China soybean meal spot price rose 23.4% to 3850 yuan per ton, the rapeseed meal 09 contract rose 3.35% to 2684 yuan per ton, and the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 8.82% to 2590 yuan per ton [5][8]. - During the week, the spot price soared due to slow - moving soybean customs clearance policies, lower - than - expected oil mill crushing rates, low downstream inventory, and pre - holiday stocking demand. The supply - tight situation was exacerbated, and the spot price continued to rise. The futures market rebounded supported by the spot price but was pressured by the expectation of post - holiday supply relaxation, limiting its upside. The U.S. soybean planting progress was slightly faster than the same period, and the weather was conducive to sowing. Supported by the strengthening of U.S. soybean oil and the weakening of the U.S. dollar, U.S. soybeans closed higher [5][8]. - The precipitation in U.S. soybean - producing areas decreased, which was beneficial for sowing. Attention should be paid to the first release of the 2025/26 U.S. soybean balance sheet in the May USDA report. U.S. soybeans are in a low - level oscillation. The slow soybean clearance continues to affect supply recovery, and the supply shortage in the short term is difficult to ease, so the spot price may remain strong. However, as May Day approaches, the market expects post - holiday supply to be loose, and the futures market may weaken after the rebound [5][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data | Contract | 4/25 | 4/18 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1059.25 | 1046.75 | 12.50 | 1.19% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 447.00 | 432.00 | 15.00 | 3.47% | Dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: U.S. Gulf | 448.00 | 448.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Futures Crushing Profit | 48.10 | - 24.76 | 72.87 | - | Yuan per ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 3031.00 | 3021.00 | 10.00 | 0.33% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2684.00 | 2597.00 | 87.00 | 3.35% | Yuan per ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread | 347.00 | 424.00 | - 77.00 | - | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 3840.00 | 3200.00 | 640.00 | 20.00% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 3850.00 | 3120.00 | 730.00 | 23.40% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Spread: South China | 819.00 | 99.00 | 720.00 | - | Yuan per ton | [6] Market Analysis and Outlook - **U.S. Soybean Situation**: As of April 20, 2025, the U.S. soybean planting progress was 8%, slightly faster than the market expectation of 7%, the previous week's 2%, last year's 7%, and the five - year average of 5%. As of April 22, about 21% of U.S. soybean - producing areas were affected by drought, down from 23% the previous week and compared with 20% last year. The weather forecast shows that in the next 15 days, precipitation in U.S. soybean - producing areas will be slightly higher than the average, and the temperature will be higher than normal. After May 1, precipitation in the Midwest will decrease, which is beneficial for sowing [9]. - **U.S. Soybean Export and Sales**: As of April 17, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 550,000 tons, in line with market expectations. The net sales of U.S. soybeans in the current market year increased by 277,000 tons. The cumulative sales volume of U.S. soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 47.06 million tons, with a sales progress of 94.7%. The net sales of U.S. soybeans to China in the 2024/2025 season were 2,000 tons, and China's cumulative purchases were 22.34 million tons [9][10]. - **Domestic Inventory and Consumption**: As of April 18, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 4.2591 million tons, an increase from the previous week and last year; the soybean meal inventory was 125,500 tons, a decrease from the previous week and last year; the unexecuted contracts were 2.8048 million tons, a decrease from the previous week and last year; the national port soybean inventory was 4.705 million tons, an increase from the previous week but a decrease from last year. As of April 25, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in the country was 199,800 tons, a decrease from the previous week; the average daily pick - up volume was 115,000 tons, a slight decrease from the previous week; the main oil mill crushing volume was 1.4122 million tons, an increase from the previous week; the soybean meal inventory days of feed enterprises were 4.35 days, a decrease from the previous week [11][12] Industry News - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean planting area is estimated to be 17.9 million hectares, a 0.6% decrease from the previous month's estimate but a 7.8% increase from the previous year. The soybean output is estimated to be 49 million tons, a 1.7% increase from the 2023/24 season [13]. - A commodity research institution has lowered the forecast of U.S. soybean production in the 2025/26 season by 1% to 11.5 million tons, with an expected planting area of 84 million acres, a 3.4% decrease from the previous year [14]. - Ukraine's 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to be 3.2 million tons, the same as the previous survey. The future weather may pose risks to rapeseed growth [14]. - The soybean production forecast of Paraná State in Brazil has been raised to 2.111 million tons [15]. - As of the week of April 20, Canada's rapeseed export volume decreased by 31.8% to 140,500 tons. From August 1, 2024, to April 20, 2025, the export volume increased by 72.3% compared with the same period of the previous year [15]. - The U.S. Advanced Biofuels Association (ABFA) has proposed to the EPA to raise the Renewable Fuel Obligation (RVO) in 2026 to 5.75 billion gallons [15]