Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 1 - month report finalized the production of US soybeans in 2025, with the output significantly lower than market expectations. The South American supply pressure, especially from Brazil's expected bumper harvest, is large. The only relatively positive factor is the potential impact of high - temperature and drought on Argentina's soybean yield [7][57][58]. - In January, the trading volume of soybean meal increased again. There was pre - holiday stockpiling demand and concerns about supply in March - April. The terminal demand is relatively stable [7][58]. - The 05 basis of the spot may be strong in February. The CBOT soybean futures may trade in a narrow range in the next month, and the upward space of domestic soybean meal 05 contract is limited. It is recommended to treat it as a narrow - range shock before the holiday, and be cautiously bearish after the rebound under the neutral assumption of soybean auction quantity and Argentina's weather [7][58][59]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Upstream: Planting and Export 1.1 Soybean Supply - The USDA January report finalized the production of US soybeans in 2025. Although the yield was high, the export decreased and the ending inventory increased, making the supply - demand relationship more relaxed. The USDA estimated that Brazil's soybean output would reach 178 million tons and Argentina's would reach 4.85 million tons [9]. - Brazil's soybean harvest is progressing, and the overall progress is normal with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. Argentina has basically completed sowing and will enter the critical growth stage in February. The weather in southern Brazil and Argentina is a concern [10]. 1.2 Exports of Major Producing Countries - The US Department of Agriculture expects Brazil's soybean exports in 2025/26 to reach 114 million tons, with good export prospects and likely to set a new record. The export volume in December and the cumulative export volume from October showed significant year - on - year growth [17][18]. - The US Department of Agriculture predicts that US soybean exports in 2025/26 will be 42.86 million tons, a year - on - year decrease. As of January 22, the cumulative export sales volume was lower than the same period last year, and the export completion rate was also lower [19][20][22]. Mid - stream: China's Soybean Import and Pressing 2.1 China's Soybean Import - In December, China imported 8.044 million tons of soybeans. The cumulative import from October to December in 2025/26 increased by 10.6% year - on - year. It is expected to set a new record in 2025. The arrival volume is expected to decrease seasonally, and the port inventory will decline until April [27][30]. 2.2 China's Soybean Pressing and Inventory - As of January 29, the spot and futures margin of Brazilian soybeans were 350 yuan/ton and 16 yuan/ton respectively, and those of US Gulf soybeans were 38 yuan/ton and - 296 yuan/ton. The start - up rate and pressing volume are expected to remain low before the Spring Festival. The soybean inventory is in the destocking stage, and attention should be paid to the impact of soybean auctions from February to March [40][42]. Downstream: Feed and Aquaculture 3.1 Soybean Meal Transaction and Inventory - As of January 23, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 815,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 111%. In January, the trading volume of soybean meal increased again due to pre - holiday stockpiling and concerns about future supply [44][47]. 3.2 Pig Farming - As of January 23, the average profit per pig for self - breeding and self - raising was 43.35 yuan/head, and that for purchasing piglets was 115.84 yuan/head. The pig slaughter volume from January to May is estimated, and attention should be paid to the support of the high inventory in the first quarter for soybean meal demand. The national industrial feed production in 2025 maintained a good trend, and it is expected to be close to that in 2025 in the first half of 2026 [50][51]. 3.3 Poultry Farming - At the end of January, the price of white - feather broilers was slightly strong, and the market supply was sufficient. The egg - laying hen farming profit recovered in January, and the inventory has shown a downward trend, and it is expected to decline slowly [54][55]. Later Outlook and Strategy - The supply pressure in the new year is still large. The demand for soybean meal increased in January, and the terminal demand is relatively stable. The spot basis may be strong in February. Futures may trade in a narrow range, and it is recommended to be cautiously bearish after the rebound under neutral assumptions [57][58][59]. - Strategies: Spot merchants can expect the basis to be strong in February; futures speculators can expect a narrow - range shock before the holiday and higher volatility after the holiday, and be cautiously bearish after the rebound under neutral assumptions [59]. - Important variables: China's continued purchase of US soybeans, Argentina's weather, and the frequency and quantity of imported soybean auctions [60].

新世纪期货： 全球大豆供应宽松，因市场对美豆出口担忧，美对华大豆销售缓慢仍是市场关注焦点，南美丰产预期强 烈，不过阿根廷一些大豆产区面临干旱影响。国内进口大豆持续到港，大豆库存高位，供应宽松，下游 节前备货陆续展开为需求带来提振，预计豆二偏震荡，关注南美大豆产区天气、中美贸易进展等不确定 性风险。 巴西大豆压榨商协会（ABIOVE）表示，预计2025/26年度巴西大豆产量将达1.77124亿吨，而上一年度 为1.71481亿吨。预计2026年巴西大豆出口量将达到1.115亿吨，而2025年的出口量为1.082亿吨。 机构观点 瑞达期货（002961）： 美国全国油籽加工商协会（NOPA）最新发布的压榨数据，12月大豆压榨量为2.25亿蒲式耳，环比增长 4.1%，同比增长8.9%，创下历史单月次高水平，且略高于市场预期，反映出美国国内压榨需求持续强 劲，为盘面提供明确支撑。然而，市场同样面临上方压力，巴西即将开启创纪录规模的大豆收获，预计 在未来数月主导全球出口供应，这将持续抑制美豆价格的上涨空间。 消息面 阿根廷农牧渔业国秘处公布的数据显示，截至1月22日，阿根廷2025/26年度大豆种植率为98%，上周为 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean supply in China will not be in short - supply in Q1 2026. The soybean market is affected by factors such as domestic and foreign trade agreements, harvest conditions, and oil - mill operations. The price of soybeans and the inventory of soybean meal are under the influence of multiple factors, with soybeans expected to fluctuate strongly and soybean meal expected to fluctuate [5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - The DCE Soybean No.1 2601 contract rebounded to around 4140 and then faced pressure for adjustment. The spot price was stable, with the market price of Fuyin soybeans around 4040 yuan/ton. The basis of soybeans fluctuated strongly, and the futures price was close to the spot price. The DCE Soybean Meal 01 contract rebounded to around 3060 and then faced pressure for adjustment. The spot price of soybean meal rebounded, with the price of Zhangjiagang 43% protein soybean meal rising from 2910 yuan/ton to around 2970 yuan/ton. The basis fluctuated, and the futures price maintained a small premium [4]. Supply - Side Factors - **Domestic Harvest**: The domestic soybean harvest is coming to an end, with quality differentiation. Northeast soybeans are popular. As of October 31, the remaining grain ratio of Heilongjiang soybeans dropped to 92%, while that of Anhui, Henan, and Shandong increased to 90%, 80%, and 90% respectively [4]. - **Import Situation**: China and the US have reached an agricultural product agreement. China will purchase at least 12 million tons of US soybeans in the last two months of 2025 and at least 25 million tons annually in the next three years. After the China - US trade agreement, the high premium of Brazilian soybeans has declined, and China has additionally ordered 20 ships of Brazilian soybeans, with 10 ships to be shipped in December. Although some enterprises have bought US soybeans, due to high tariffs, large - scale imports are not expected before the tariff reduction. As of October 31, the arrival volume of soybeans at oil mills was 1.885 million tons, a month - on - month decline, and the port soybean inventory was 9.629 million tons, also a month - on - month decline but still at a high level [5]. - **US Soybean Market**: The US - China soybean import agreement has boosted the price of US soybeans. The US government shutdown has broken the previous record, and the US Department of Agriculture is expected to release the November supply - demand report. The cost of US soybeans is still higher than that of Brazilian soybeans, and attention should be paid to the implementation of tariff reduction [5]. Oil - Mill Operations - The operating rate of oil mills decreased slightly, but the inventory of soybean meal increased again. As of October 31, the operating rate of oil mills was 61.99%, a month - on - month decline; the soybean crushing volume was 2.2534 million tons, a month - on - month decline; the soybean inventory of oil mills was 7.108 million tons, a month - on - month decline but still at a high level. The output of soybean meal was 1.78 million tons, a month - on - month decline; the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills was 1.153 million tons, a month - on - month increase; the unexecuted contracts of soybean meal were 4.205 million tons, a slight month - on - month decline. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 8.02 days, a slight month - on - month increase [6]. Demand - Side Factors - The demand for feed is relatively strong. In the breeding industry, the pig price has rebounded from a low level, and the loss of breeding has narrowed. As of October 31, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 179.72 yuan per head, and the loss was narrowing; the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 89.33 yuan per head, and the loss was also narrowing. The adjustment of the reproductive sow capacity is slow. In September, the inventory of reproductive sows in the country was 40.35 million heads, a decrease of 30,000 heads from the previous month. In the poultry industry, the egg price has dropped again, and egg - laying hens are in a loss state, but the inventory in September still increased to a historical high. The demand for feed is strong [6]. Market Outlook - The domestic soybean harvest is coming to an end. With quality differentiation, Northeast soybeans are popular. The domestic supply of soybeans is sufficient due to imports. The operating rate of oil mills has declined, but the inventory of soybean meal has increased, and the inventory pressure persists. The demand is strong. The price of soybean No.1 is expected to fluctuate strongly, while the price of soybean meal is expected to fluctuate, affected by the cost increase of US soybeans and the pressure of increased supply [7].

Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View The report suggests that soybean meal should be mainly considered from an interval oscillation perspective. Upward breakthrough requires intensified trade wars and South American planting problems, while downward breakthrough needs domestic consumption slump and further supply relaxation. Recently, soybean meal may remain weak due to large inventories and sufficient external market supply. The opportunity for price increase may come from the National Day stocking in September, the domestic soybean de - stocking window, and the improvement of crushing margins from South American planting transactions. Additionally, the soybean oil segment may be relatively stronger due to the year - end palm oil de - stocking expectation and the B50 policy expectation [1][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories may peak in mid - August due to good提货 - As of July 25, 2025, domestic port soybean inventory was 8.085 million tons, about 230,000 tons higher than last year, and oil mill soybean meal inventory was 1.04 million tons, about 300,000 tons lower than last year. Feed enterprise inventory days were 8.19 days, 0.76 days higher than last year. Overall, the current domestic protein inventory is similar to last year [3]. - From September 2024 to August 2025, 107.83 million tons of soybeans were purchased, compared with 111.89 million tons in the same period last year. Considering the port soybean inventory difference in October 2024, the annual supply actually decreased by about 2 million tons. As of July 22, 2025, 6.2 million tons were purchased for September 2025 and 1.06 million tons for October. With similar supply and increased consumption, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories may peak around mid - August [4]. 2. The supply pressure of external market soybeans from August to January of the following year is slightly greater than last year, and the expected output growth rate of South American new crops slows down - For US soybeans, a good harvest is likely this year, but it's difficult to achieve a maximum trend yield of 52.5 bushels per acre. Assuming the yield is adjusted down to 51.5 - 52 bushels per acre, the 2025/26 output may be reduced by about 1 - 2 million tons, and the new - crop export volume is expected to decline by 3 - 6 million tons compared with last year [6]. - It is estimated that Brazil's soybean output in 2025 is 169 million tons, and the export volume is expected to be 102 million tons. The shipping volume from August to January is estimated to be 23 - 29 million tons, about 7 million tons higher than last year. The real - world supply pressure from September to January in the external market is higher than last year, and the overall output growth of South American soybeans is expected to be 5 - 6 million tons [6][8]. 3. The import cost of soybeans is expected to maintain an interval oscillation similar to last year - As of July 29, 2025, the price of the November US soybean contract was 1009 cents per bushel, and the planting cost was around 1190 cents per bushel. The US soybean and global soybean new and old crop stock - to - use ratios are slightly better than last year, and the US soybean has support at 955 cents per bushel [10]. - The FOB premium of Brazilian soybeans is about 180 cents per bushel, stronger than last year. If there are results regarding US soybean purchases later, the Brazilian premium may drop by 60 - 70 cents per bushel. The bottom - end interval of external market soybean import costs may remain at around 3600 yuan per ton, with limited upward space [10]. - The domestic soybean spot crushing margin is at the break - even line, as are the September and November contract crushing margins for soybean meal and soybean oil. If domestic downstream soybean meal consumption can maintain a high level, it may skip the inventory pressure in August and directly trade the South American sowing period and the domestic soybean de - stocking period from September to November [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the CBOT July soybean contract rose 1.19% to 1059.25 cents per bushel, the soybean meal 09 contract rose 0.33% to 3031 yuan per ton, the South China soybean meal spot price rose 23.4% to 3850 yuan per ton, the rapeseed meal 09 contract rose 3.35% to 2684 yuan per ton, and the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 8.82% to 2590 yuan per ton [5][8]. - During the week, the spot price soared due to slow - moving soybean customs clearance policies, lower - than - expected oil mill crushing rates, low downstream inventory, and pre - holiday stocking demand. The supply - tight situation was exacerbated, and the spot price continued to rise. The futures market rebounded supported by the spot price but was pressured by the expectation of post - holiday supply relaxation, limiting its upside. The U.S. soybean planting progress was slightly faster than the same period, and the weather was conducive to sowing. Supported by the strengthening of U.S. soybean oil and the weakening of the U.S. dollar, U.S. soybeans closed higher [5][8]. - The precipitation in U.S. soybean - producing areas decreased, which was beneficial for sowing. Attention should be paid to the first release of the 2025/26 U.S. soybean balance sheet in the May USDA report. U.S. soybeans are in a low - level oscillation. The slow soybean clearance continues to affect supply recovery, and the supply shortage in the short term is difficult to ease, so the spot price may remain strong. However, as May Day approaches, the market expects post - holiday supply to be loose, and the futures market may weaken after the rebound [5][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data | Contract | 4/25 | 4/18 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1059.25 | 1046.75 | 12.50 | 1.19% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 447.00 | 432.00 | 15.00 | 3.47% | Dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: U.S. Gulf | 448.00 | 448.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Futures Crushing Profit | 48.10 | - 24.76 | 72.87 | - | Yuan per ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 3031.00 | 3021.00 | 10.00 | 0.33% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2684.00 | 2597.00 | 87.00 | 3.35% | Yuan per ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread | 347.00 | 424.00 | - 77.00 | - | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 3840.00 | 3200.00 | 640.00 | 20.00% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 3850.00 | 3120.00 | 730.00 | 23.40% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Spread: South China | 819.00 | 99.00 | 720.00 | - | Yuan per ton | [6] Market Analysis and Outlook - **U.S. Soybean Situation**: As of April 20, 2025, the U.S. soybean planting progress was 8%, slightly faster than the market expectation of 7%, the previous week's 2%, last year's 7%, and the five - year average of 5%. As of April 22, about 21% of U.S. soybean - producing areas were affected by drought, down from 23% the previous week and compared with 20% last year. The weather forecast shows that in the next 15 days, precipitation in U.S. soybean - producing areas will be slightly higher than the average, and the temperature will be higher than normal. After May 1, precipitation in the Midwest will decrease, which is beneficial for sowing [9]. - **U.S. Soybean Export and Sales**: As of April 17, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 550,000 tons, in line with market expectations. The net sales of U.S. soybeans in the current market year increased by 277,000 tons. The cumulative sales volume of U.S. soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 47.06 million tons, with a sales progress of 94.7%. The net sales of U.S. soybeans to China in the 2024/2025 season were 2,000 tons, and China's cumulative purchases were 22.34 million tons [9][10]. - **Domestic Inventory and Consumption**: As of April 18, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 4.2591 million tons, an increase from the previous week and last year; the soybean meal inventory was 125,500 tons, a decrease from the previous week and last year; the unexecuted contracts were 2.8048 million tons, a decrease from the previous week and last year; the national port soybean inventory was 4.705 million tons, an increase from the previous week but a decrease from last year. As of April 25, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in the country was 199,800 tons, a decrease from the previous week; the average daily pick - up volume was 115,000 tons, a slight decrease from the previous week; the main oil mill crushing volume was 1.4122 million tons, an increase from the previous week; the soybean meal inventory days of feed enterprises were 4.35 days, a decrease from the previous week [11][12] Industry News - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean planting area is estimated to be 17.9 million hectares, a 0.6% decrease from the previous month's estimate but a 7.8% increase from the previous year. The soybean output is estimated to be 49 million tons, a 1.7% increase from the 2023/24 season [13]. - A commodity research institution has lowered the forecast of U.S. soybean production in the 2025/26 season by 1% to 11.5 million tons, with an expected planting area of 84 million acres, a 3.4% decrease from the previous year [14]. - Ukraine's 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to be 3.2 million tons, the same as the previous survey. The future weather may pose risks to rapeseed growth [14]. - The soybean production forecast of Paraná State in Brazil has been raised to 2.111 million tons [15]. - As of the week of April 20, Canada's rapeseed export volume decreased by 31.8% to 140,500 tons. From August 1, 2024, to April 20, 2025, the export volume increased by 72.3% compared with the same period of the previous year [15]. - The U.S. Advanced Biofuels Association (ABFA) has proposed to the EPA to raise the Renewable Fuel Obligation (RVO) in 2026 to 5.75 billion gallons [15]