联储宽松货币政策

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五矿期货贵金属日报-20250626
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-06-26 02:40
Group 1: Market Performance - Shanghai gold (Au) rose 0.52% to 774.02 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver (Ag) rose 1.29% to 8761.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold rose 0.22% to 3350.50 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.45% to 36.28 US dollars/ounce [2] - The yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds was reported at 4.29%, and the US dollar index was reported at 97.53 [2] - The Dow Jones Index fell 0.25%, the S&P 500 Index remained unchanged, the Nasdaq Index rose 0.31%, and the VIX Index fell 4.12% [4] Group 2: Market Outlook and Factors - The current market expectation for the Fed's loose monetary policy has further increased, and the US dollar liquidity will benefit from the changes in bank regulatory bills, which are clear positive factors for the silver price [2] - The Fed announced a proposal to relax the capital rules of large US banks, which aims to enhance the ability of these banks to act as intermediaries for US Treasury bonds in the US capital market, and is beneficial to the stable operation of the prices of precious metals [2] - Although Powell's short-term stance is neutral to hawkish, in the medium term, affected by the interest expenditure of US Treasury bonds, it is certain that the Fed will enter an interest rate cut cycle in the second half of the year [3] Group 3: Investment Strategy - It is recommended to buy silver on dips. The reference operating range of the main contract of Shanghai gold is 747 - 801 yuan/gram, and the reference operating range of the main contract of Shanghai silver is 8545 - 9075 yuan/kilogram [3] Group 4: Key Data Summary - For COMEX gold on June 25, 2025, the closing price was 3346.40 US dollars/ounce (up 0.24%), the trading volume was 12.75 million lots (down 42.80%), the open interest was 44.12 million lots (up 5.77%), and the inventory was 1150 tons (down 1.25%) [6] - For COMEX silver on June 25, 2025, the closing price was 36.22 US dollars/ounce (up 0.96%), the open interest was 18.48 million lots (up 6.05%), and the inventory was 15562 tons (up 0.40%) [6] Group 5: Price Structure and Spread - On June 25, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX spread of gold was 17.42 US dollars/ounce, and the SGE - LBMA spread was -3.39 US dollars/ounce [49] - On June 25, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX spread of silver was 1.58 US dollars/ounce [49]