Workflow
联合挺价
icon
Search documents
多晶硅周报:多晶硅博弈加剧-20251208
Chuang Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-12-08 02:20
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - From the balance sheet perspective, the polysilicon market maintains a wide - balance pattern. The price support mainly comes from anti - involution expectations and price - holding by major enterprises. However, the inclusion of East Hope in the delivery list by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange may impact the pricing power of the industrial alliance. Next week's market will focus on the transfer of polysilicon pricing power. The contradiction between insufficient domestic demand and unexpected production cuts will strengthen market doubts about platform companies. The root cause lies in the long - term split pattern where high profits in the upstream lead to increased production and inventory accumulation, while low profits in the downstream result in production cuts and low inventory, without substantial improvement in inventory. High industry inventory may not have a substantial short - term impact, but if it forms a negative feedback and suppresses corporate cash flow, enterprises will have to passively reduce inventory and transfer profits to the downstream to achieve industrial chain profit balance. Investors should pay attention to enterprise warehouse receipt quotes. If the whole industry holds prices, the price difference between near - and far - month contracts will still show a BACK structure due to the scarcity of warehouse receipts. They also need to be aware of the increased volatility risk caused by the current polysilicon game [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Key Data Overview - As of December 5th, the 99 - silicon powder was quoted at 10,000 yuan/ton, with no daily or weekly change; the 553 silicon powder was quoted at 10,000 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.5%. The trichlorosilane price was 3,425 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.5%. The N - type granular silicon was quoted at 50 yuan/kg, with a weekly decrease of 1.0%; the N - type re - feeding material was quoted at 52.3 yuan/kg, with no daily or weekly change. The N - type silicon price index was 52.3 yuan/kg, with no daily or weekly change. The electronic - grade polysilicon was quoted at 27.9 US dollars/kg, with a weekly decrease of 0.2%; the overseas photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was quoted at 16.05 US dollars/kg, with a weekly increase of 0.6% [6] - As of December 5th, the weekly polysilicon production was 25,800 tons, with a weekly increase of 7.5% [7] - As of December 5th, the domestic polysilicon inventory was 291,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 3.6%. The N - type 182 silicon wafer (130μm) was quoted at 1.15 yuan/piece, with a weekly decrease of 2.5%; the N - type 210 silicon wafer (130μm) was quoted at 1.48 yuan/piece, with a daily decrease of 1.3% and a weekly decrease of 3.3%. As of July 21st, the single - crystal silicon wafer G12 - 210 was quoted at 1.03 yuan/piece, with no daily or weekly change; the single - crystal silicon wafer M10 - 182 was quoted at 1.58 yuan/piece, with no daily or weekly change [8] - As of December 5th, the weekly silicon wafer production was 11.95GW, with a weekly decrease of 0.6% [9] - As of December 5th, the silicon wafer inventory was 21.3GW, with a weekly increase of 9.2%. The single - crystal TOPcon:M10 battery was quoted at 0.283 yuan/watt, with a weekly decrease of 0.7%; the single - crystal TOPcon:G12 battery was quoted at 0.283 yuan/watt, with no daily or weekly change. The TOPcon - 182 (distributed) battery was quoted at 0.664 yuan/watt, with a weekly decrease of 0.3%; the TOPcon - 210 (distributed) battery was quoted at 0.68 yuan/watt, with a weekly decrease of 0.6%; the TOPcon - 210R (distributed) battery was quoted at 0.668 yuan/watt, with a weekly decrease of 0.4%; the N - type - 182 (centralized) battery was quoted at 0.67 yuan/watt, with no daily or weekly change; the N - type - 210 (centralized) battery was quoted at 0.69 yuan/watt, with no daily or weekly change [10] 3.2 Weekly Market Review 3.2.1 Spot Prices in the Industrial Chain - The report presents price trends of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components through charts, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [12] 3.2.2 Prices of Other Upstream and Downstream Materials - The report shows price trends of photovoltaic adhesive films, high - purity quartz sand/quartz crucibles, etc. through charts, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [14] 3.3 Key Data Tracking 3.3.1 Upstream and Downstream Data - The report presents data on weekly polysilicon production, polysilicon inventory, monthly photovoltaic battery production (silicon consumption), weekly photovoltaic battery inventory (silicon consumption), weekly photovoltaic component inventory (silicon consumption), and inventory changes through charts, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [20] 3.3.2 Export and Industry Profit Levels - The report shows data on weekly photovoltaic battery inventory changes, monthly photovoltaic component production (silicon consumption), component exports (equivalent polysilicon consumption), battery exports (equivalent polysilicon consumption), and profit levels of polysilicon, silicon wafers, batteries, and components through charts, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [24] 3.3.5 Weekly Key Data - As of November 30th, the polysilicon inventory was 29.1 tons, with a weekly increase of 1.00 tons and a weekly growth rate of 4%; the silicon wafer inventory (equivalent polysilicon inventory) was 4.05 tons, with a weekly increase of 0.34 tons and a weekly growth rate of 9%; the battery cell inventory (equivalent polysilicon inventory) was 1.53 tons, with a weekly decrease of 0.88 tons and a weekly decline rate of - 37%; the component inventory (equivalent polysilicon inventory) was 6.22 tons, with a weekly increase of 0.06 tons and a weekly growth rate of 1% [40]