2026 年 01 月 07 日 工业硅：消息面扰动，盘面表现偏强 多晶硅：关注今日市场消息影响 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） Si2605成交量（手） | 8,900 | 170 | 20 | -20 | | | | | 460,467 | 189,335 | -74,103 | 314,468 | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 234,611 | 17,319 | 9,869 | 40,685 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 59,365 | 720 | 410 | - | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 19,919 | 2,764 | -111,171 | - | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 72,353 | -2,218 | - ...

工业硅：关注上游工厂减产节奏 2025 年 12 月 31 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | 8,915 | 200 | 135 | -215 | | | | Si2605成交量（手） Si2605持仓量（手） | 366,201 | -16,214 | 14,776 | 168,310 | | | | | 216,220 | -4,845 | 2,444 | 4,421 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） PS2605成交量（手） | 57,890 | 1,390 | -1,335 | - | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 42,713 83,335 | -26,715 -12,296 | -110,600 -48,268 | - - | | | | 工业硅：近月合约对连一价差（元/吨） | -35 | 0 | ...

| 指标名称 | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | | Si2605成交量（手） | 8,645 348,477 | 175 2,193 | 360 144,548 | -335 43,849 | | Si2605持仓量（手） | | | 207,780 | -3,030 | 60,706 | -40,239 | | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | | | 59,300 | -2,295 | 3,535 | - | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | PS2605成交量（手） | 398,819 | 25,520 | 201,639 | - | | PS2605持仓量（手） | | | 139,860 | -13,608 | 22,579 | - | | 工业硅：近月合约对连一价差（元/吨） | | | -5 | 0 | -35 | -5 | | 工业硅：买近月抛连一跨期成本（元/吨） | | | 47.6 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.4 | | 多晶硅：近月 ...

【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | 指标名称 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | 8,350 | -85 | -325 | -795 | | | | | Si2605成交量（手） | 303,910 | 75,733 | 52,114 | 11,431 | | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 200,749 | 89,925 | 13,662 | -67,009 | | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 58,030 | 840 | 3,485 | - | | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 314,139 | -548 | 156,169 | - | | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 142,844 | 16,408 | 63,477 | - | | | | | 工业硅：近月合约对连一价差（元/吨） | 10 | 60 | 15 | 10 | | | | | ...

2025 年 12 月 12 日 工业硅：关注新疆地区天气情况 多晶硅：盘面高位震荡格局 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2601收盘价（元/吨） Si2601成交量（手） | 8,285 203,929 | 35 -48,581 | -625 51,757 | -895 -122,845 | | | | Si2601持仓量（手） | | | | | | | | | 147,074 | -24,683 | -45,945 | -123,885 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 55,765 | -150 | -1,150 | - | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 197,180 | 80,973 | 21,604 | - | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 117,281 | 62 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - From the balance sheet perspective, the polysilicon market maintains a wide - balance pattern. The price support mainly comes from anti - involution expectations and price - holding by major enterprises. However, the inclusion of East Hope in the delivery list by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange may impact the pricing power of the industrial alliance. Next week's market will focus on the transfer of polysilicon pricing power. The contradiction between insufficient domestic demand and unexpected production cuts will strengthen market doubts about platform companies. The root cause lies in the long - term split pattern where high profits in the upstream lead to increased production and inventory accumulation, while low profits in the downstream result in production cuts and low inventory, without substantial improvement in inventory. High industry inventory may not have a substantial short - term impact, but if it forms a negative feedback and suppresses corporate cash flow, enterprises will have to passively reduce inventory and transfer profits to the downstream to achieve industrial chain profit balance. Investors should pay attention to enterprise warehouse receipt quotes. If the whole industry holds prices, the price difference between near - and far - month contracts will still show a BACK structure due to the scarcity of warehouse receipts. They also need to be aware of the increased volatility risk caused by the current polysilicon game [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Key Data Overview - As of December 5th, the 99 - silicon powder was quoted at 10,000 yuan/ton, with no daily or weekly change; the 553 silicon powder was quoted at 10,000 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.5%. The trichlorosilane price was 3,425 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.5%. The N - type granular silicon was quoted at 50 yuan/kg, with a weekly decrease of 1.0%; the N - type re - feeding material was quoted at 52.3 yuan/kg, with no daily or weekly change. The N - type silicon price index was 52.3 yuan/kg, with no daily or weekly change. The electronic - grade polysilicon was quoted at 27.9 US dollars/kg, with a weekly decrease of 0.2%; the overseas photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was quoted at 16.05 US dollars/kg, with a weekly increase of 0.6% [6] - As of December 5th, the weekly polysilicon production was 25,800 tons, with a weekly increase of 7.5% [7] - As of December 5th, the domestic polysilicon inventory was 291,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 3.6%. The N - type 182 silicon wafer (130μm) was quoted at 1.15 yuan/piece, with a weekly decrease of 2.5%; the N - type 210 silicon wafer (130μm) was quoted at 1.48 yuan/piece, with a daily decrease of 1.3% and a weekly decrease of 3.3%. As of July 21st, the single - crystal silicon wafer G12 - 210 was quoted at 1.03 yuan/piece, with no daily or weekly change; the single - crystal silicon wafer M10 - 182 was quoted at 1.58 yuan/piece, with no daily or weekly change [8] - As of December 5th, the weekly silicon wafer production was 11.95GW, with a weekly decrease of 0.6% [9] - As of December 5th, the silicon wafer inventory was 21.3GW, with a weekly increase of 9.2%. The single - crystal TOPcon:M10 battery was quoted at 0.283 yuan/watt, with a weekly decrease of 0.7%; the single - crystal TOPcon:G12 battery was quoted at 0.283 yuan/watt, with no daily or weekly change. The TOPcon - 182 (distributed) battery was quoted at 0.664 yuan/watt, with a weekly decrease of 0.3%; the TOPcon - 210 (distributed) battery was quoted at 0.68 yuan/watt, with a weekly decrease of 0.6%; the TOPcon - 210R (distributed) battery was quoted at 0.668 yuan/watt, with a weekly decrease of 0.4%; the N - type - 182 (centralized) battery was quoted at 0.67 yuan/watt, with no daily or weekly change; the N - type - 210 (centralized) battery was quoted at 0.69 yuan/watt, with no daily or weekly change [10] 3.2 Weekly Market Review 3.2.1 Spot Prices in the Industrial Chain - The report presents price trends of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components through charts, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [12] 3.2.2 Prices of Other Upstream and Downstream Materials - The report shows price trends of photovoltaic adhesive films, high - purity quartz sand/quartz crucibles, etc. through charts, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [14] 3.3 Key Data Tracking 3.3.1 Upstream and Downstream Data - The report presents data on weekly polysilicon production, polysilicon inventory, monthly photovoltaic battery production (silicon consumption), weekly photovoltaic battery inventory (silicon consumption), weekly photovoltaic component inventory (silicon consumption), and inventory changes through charts, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [20] 3.3.2 Export and Industry Profit Levels - The report shows data on weekly photovoltaic battery inventory changes, monthly photovoltaic component production (silicon consumption), component exports (equivalent polysilicon consumption), battery exports (equivalent polysilicon consumption), and profit levels of polysilicon, silicon wafers, batteries, and components through charts, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [24] 3.3.5 Weekly Key Data - As of November 30th, the polysilicon inventory was 29.1 tons, with a weekly increase of 1.00 tons and a weekly growth rate of 4%; the silicon wafer inventory (equivalent polysilicon inventory) was 4.05 tons, with a weekly increase of 0.34 tons and a weekly growth rate of 9%; the battery cell inventory (equivalent polysilicon inventory) was 1.53 tons, with a weekly decrease of 0.88 tons and a weekly decline rate of - 37%; the component inventory (equivalent polysilicon inventory) was 6.22 tons, with a weekly increase of 0.06 tons and a weekly growth rate of 1% [40]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 05 日 工业硅：偏弱运行 多晶硅：关注仓单注册情况 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2601收盘价（元/吨） | 8,910 | -10 | -205 | 25 | | | | Si2601成交量（手） | 152,172 | 6,173 | -171,352 | -227,614 | | | | Si2601持仓量（手） | 193,019 | -907 | -44,629 | -49,134 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2601收盘价（元/吨） | 56,915 | -515 | 1,680 | - | | | | PS2601成交量（手） | 175,576 | -6,849 | -148,494 | - | | | | PS2601持仓量（手） | 116,653 | -11, ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Mainly weak operation [1] - Polysilicon: Pay attention to the fermentation of news [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, profit, inventory, and raw material cost data. It also reports on a key project milestone in the polysilicon industry. The trend intensity for both industrial silicon and polysilicon is neutral [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: Si2601 (industrial silicon) closed at 8,920 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan from T - 1, 100 yuan from T - 5, and 220 yuan from T - 22. PS2601 (polysilicon) closed at 57,705 yuan/ton, up 1,280 yuan from T - 1 and 4,390 yuan from T - 5 [1]. - **Basis**: Industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) was +580 yuan/ton, and polysilicon spot premium (against N - type re - investment) was - 5430 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price**: Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,900 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 was 10,000 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - investment material was 52,350 yuan/ton [1]. - **Profit**: Silicon factory profit in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2,349.5 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) was - 3,596 yuan/ton. Polysilicon enterprise profit was 7.7 yuan/kg [1]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 550,000 tons, enterprise inventory was 180,000 tons, and industry inventory was 730,000 tons. Polysilicon factory inventory was 281,000 tons [1]. - **Raw Material Cost**: Silicon ore prices in Xinjiang and Yunnan were 320 yuan/ton and 290 yuan/ton respectively. Wash - cleaned coal prices in Xinjiang and Ningxia were 1,475 yuan/ton and 1,200 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The 400,000 - volt substation of the Oman United Solar Polysilicon Project, EPC - contracted by China Energy Construction Shanxi Electric Power Engineering Company, was successfully connected to the grid, marking a breakthrough in the project's construction [1]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for industrial silicon and polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon is expected to mainly experience a moderately strong and volatile trend [1]. - For polysilicon, attention should be paid to the changes in the monthly spread [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For industrial silicon, the Si2601 closing price was 9,020 yuan/ton, with a change of 60 yuan compared to T - 1, -370 yuan compared to T - 5, and 55 yuan compared to T - 22. The Si2601 trading volume was 369,225 lots, and the open interest was 260,529 lots. For polysilicon, the PS2601 closing price was 55,895 yuan/ton, with a change of 1,165 yuan compared to T - 1 and 1,270 yuan compared to T - 5 [2]. - **Basis**: The industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) was +480 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon spot premium (against N - type re - investment) was -3,895 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,900 yuan/ton, and the price of polysilicon - N - type re - investment material was 52,250 yuan/ton [2]. - **Profit**: The profit of silicon plants (Xinjiang new standard 553) was -2,249.5 yuan/ton, and the profit of polysilicon enterprises was 7.7 yuan/kg [2]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 548,000 tons, and the polysilicon manufacturer inventory was 271,000 tons [2]. - **Raw Material Cost**: The price of Xinjiang silicon ore was 320 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang washed coking coal was 1,475 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On November 22, the main structure of the first - phase waste heat power generation project of the Inner Mongolia Xingfa industrial silicon project, undertaken by the Fourth Branch, was successfully capped. This project adheres to the concept of "environmental protection first, energy - saving and high - efficiency" and uses innovative technologies to recycle high - temperature flue gas in the industrial silicon smelting process, realizing pollution control and improving energy utilization efficiency [3][4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and the trend intensity of polysilicon is 0. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report presents the fundamental data of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including futures market, basis, price, profit, inventory, and raw material cost, as well as macro and industry news and trend strength [1][2][3]. Detailed Summaries 1. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2601: The closing price is 8,940 yuan/ton, with a change of -20 compared to T - 1, -140 compared to T - 5, and 235 compared to T - 22. The trading volume is 214,012 lots, and the open interest is 262,676 lots [1]. - PS2601: The closing price is 53,315 yuan/ton, with a change of -45 compared to T - 1. The trading volume is 187,876 lots, and the open interest is 128,427 lots [1]. 2. Basis - Industrial silicon: The spot premium or discount varies depending on the benchmark, such as +560 yuan/ton (against East China Si5530), +10 yuan/ton (against East China Si4210), and -40 yuan/ton (against Xinjiang 99 silicon) [1]. - Polysilicon: The spot premium or discount against N - type re - feed is -1,315 yuan/ton [1]. 3. Price - Industrial silicon: Xinjiang 99 silicon is 8,900 yuan/ton, and Yunnan Si4210 is 10,000 yuan/ton. Polysilicon - N - type re - feed is 52,250 yuan/ton [1]. - Organic silicon: DMC price is 13,200 yuan/ton [1]. - Aluminum alloy: ADC12 price is 21,350 yuan/ton [1]. 4. Profit - Silicon plant: The profit of Xinjiang new - standard 553 is -2,329.5 yuan/ton, and that of Yunnan new - standard 553 is -3,576 yuan/ton [1]. - Polysilicon enterprise: The profit is 7.7 yuan/kg [1]. - DMC enterprise: The profit is 1,322 yuan/ton [1]. - Regenerated aluminum enterprise: The profit is -10 yuan/ton [1]. 5. Inventory - Industrial silicon: Social inventory is 54.8 million tons, enterprise inventory is 17.8 million tons, industry inventory is 72.6 million tons, and futures warehouse receipt inventory is 20.8 million tons [1]. - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory is 27.1 million tons [1]. 6. Raw Material Cost - Silicon ore: Xinjiang is 320 yuan/ton, and Yunnan is 290 yuan/ton [1]. - Washed coking coal: Ningxia is 1,200 yuan/ton [1]. - Petroleum coke: Maoming coke is 1,400 yuan/ton, and Yangzi coke is 2,340 yuan/ton [1]. - Electrode: Graphite electrode is 12,450 yuan/ton, and carbon electrode is 7,200 yuan/ton [1]. 7. Macro and Industry News - As of the end of October 2025, the total installed power generation capacity in China is 3.75 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.3%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power is 1.14 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 43.8%, and the installed capacity of wind power is 0.59 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 21.4%. From January to October, the average utilization hours of power generation equipment is 2,619 hours, 260 hours lower than the same period last year. In October, the new installed capacity of solar power is 12.6 million kilowatts, a month - on - month increase of 30.43% [2]. 8. Trend Strength - Industrial silicon: The trend strength is 0. - Polysilicon: The trend strength is 1. The trend strength ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].