2026 年 02 月 27 日 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | 8,335 | -95 | -35 | -510 | | | | | Si2605成交量（手） | 177,274 | 22,967 | 16,804 | -213,840 | | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 325,323 | 11,364 | 17,559 | 90,156 | | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 46,315 | -1,315 | -2,865 | - | | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 8,466 | 3,330 | 3,673 | - | | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 39,925 | 1,633 | 1,612 | - ...

Report Information - Report Date: January 30, 2026 [1] - Report Title: Industrial Silicon: Upstream Production Cuts, Focus on Inventory Changes; Polysilicon: Positive Conference Sentiment, Building Bottom Support for the Futures Market [1][2] - Analyst: Zhang Hang [2] - Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0018008 [2] - Email: zhanghang2@gtht.com [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Views - The upstream of the industrial silicon industry has cut production, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [1] - The positive sentiment from the photovoltaic industry entrepreneur symposium provides bottom support for the polysilicon futures market [2][4] Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: - Industrial silicon (Si2605): The closing price is 8,925 yuan/ton, with a volume of 300,232 lots and an open interest of 236,653 lots [2] - Polysilicon (PS2605): The closing price is 49,335 yuan/ton, with a volume of 15,626 lots and an open interest of 42,745 lots [2] - **Basis and Spread**: The industrial silicon and polysilicon futures contracts show different spreads and basis values, such as the industrial silicon near - month contract to the continuous - first spread being - 45 yuan/ton [2] - **Prices and Profits**: - Industrial silicon: The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon is 8700 yuan/ton, and the silicon factory profits in Xinjiang and Yunnan are - 2206.5 yuan/ton and - 5414 yuan/ton respectively [2] - Polysilicon: The price of N - type re - feedstock is 52500 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon enterprise profit is 8.1 yuan/kg [2] - Organic silicon (DMC): The price is 13900 yuan/ton, and the enterprise profit is 1830 yuan/ton [2] - Aluminum alloy (ADC12): The price is 24550 yuan/ton, and the regenerative aluminum enterprise profit is - 310 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: - Industrial silicon: The social inventory is 55.4 million tons, the enterprise inventory is 20.9 million tons, and the industry inventory (social + enterprise) is 76.3 million tons [2] - Polysilicon: The manufacturer inventory is 33.3 million tons [2] - **Raw Material Costs**: The costs of silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes and other raw materials in different regions are provided, with most remaining stable [2] Macro and Industry News - On January 28, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a photovoltaic industry entrepreneur symposium, emphasizing "anti - involution" as the main contradiction in the photovoltaic industry's standard governance, and promoting the industry to return to a benign and rational development track [4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is also 0, indicating a neutral view [4]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the investment opportunities in the Chinese capital market, particularly focusing on the recovery and growth potential in various sectors, including technology, chemicals, and energy metals [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Recovery**: The Chinese capital market is expected to rise significantly, with predictions of reaching 4,200 points before the Spring Festival and a target of 5,200 points for the year 2026. This recovery is attributed to reduced internal and external concerns, leading to increased investor confidence [1][2][10]. - **Sector Focus**: Key sectors identified for investment include: - **Technology**: Emphasis on leading companies in the internet, electronic semiconductors, telecommunications, and military industries. Notable mentions include storage chip suppliers and platform companies [1][9][14]. - **Chemicals**: Growth stocks in the chemical industry are expected to benefit from increased downstream demand, with specific recommendations for companies like 雅克科技 (Yake Technology) and 国瓷材料 (Guoci Materials) [1][14]. - **Energy Metals**: Positive outlook on industrial metals like copper and aluminum, with expectations of price stability and growth due to demand from AI and infrastructure investments [3][20][21]. - **Aviation Sector**: The aviation sector is projected to see continued improvement in supply and demand, with recommendations for companies like 中国航 (China Airlines) and 吉祥航空 (Lucky Air) [12]. - **Oil Shipping**: The oil shipping sector has shown significant price recovery, with daily rates increasing from $20,000 to $116,000, indicating strong demand and limited supply growth [13]. Additional Important Insights - **Regulatory Environment**: The importance of a stable regulatory environment is emphasized, as it fosters long-term market growth and investor confidence. Strict regulations against stock price manipulation are seen as beneficial for the majority of investors [6][7]. - **Economic Indicators**: The overall economic stability and liquidity expansion are expected to support market growth, with specific attention to the A500 index representing leading companies in various sectors [1][8]. - **Coal Demand**: Coal demand is projected to grow significantly due to increased electricity consumption, particularly in the service sector, which is expected to contribute over 50% to the total electricity demand growth [29]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: Geopolitical events are influencing oil prices, with expectations of a return to fundamental supply-demand dynamics in the medium to long term [26]. Conclusion - The conference call highlights a positive outlook for the Chinese capital market in 2026, driven by sector-specific growth opportunities and a stable regulatory environment. Key sectors such as technology, chemicals, and energy metals are poised for significant investment, while the aviation and oil shipping sectors are also expected to perform well.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Short at high prices due to downstream production cuts [1] - Polysilicon: Sideways trend [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, profit, inventory, and macro - industry news. It also gives the trend strength of industrial silicon and polysilicon, guiding investment decisions [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Market**: For industrial silicon, Si2605's closing price was 8,730 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan from T - 1; its trading volume was 235,842 lots, down 10,094 lots from T - 1. For polysilicon, PS2605's closing price was 48,670 yuan/ton, down 275 yuan from T - 1; its trading volume was 12,703 lots, down 8,239 lots from T - 1 [2] - **Basis**: Industrial silicon's spot premium (against East China Si5530) was +520 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan from T - 1. Polysilicon's spot premium (against N - type re - feed) was +6580 yuan/ton, up 275 yuan from T - 1 [2] - **Price**: Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8700 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1; polysilicon - N - type re - feed was 54750 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 [2] - **Profit**: Silicon plant profit (Xinjiang new standard 553, yuan/ton) was - 2596.5, down 25 yuan from T - 1; polysilicon enterprise profit (yuan/kg) was 10.3, up 0.4 from T - 1 [2] - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 55.5 tons, with an increase of 0.3 tons compared to T - 5; polysilicon's manufacturer inventory was 32.1 tons, with an increase of 1.9 tons compared to T - 5 [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - China Meteorological Administration and National Energy Administration issued a guidance on promoting the construction of an energy meteorological service system. By 2027, an integrated energy meteorological service system will be basically established, and by 2030, key meteorological service technologies for water, wind, solar, and storage will reach international advanced levels [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: - 1 (indicating a bearish view); Polysilicon trend intensity: 0 (indicating a neutral view) [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows strong performance on the futures market due to news - related disturbances, and attention should be paid to the impact of today's market news on the polysilicon market [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of Si2605 is 8,900 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 460,467 lots and an open interest of 234,611 lots. The closing price of PS2605 is 59,365 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 19,919 lots and an open interest of 72,353 lots [1] - **Basis**: The spot premium of industrial silicon (against East China Si5530) is +350 yuan/ton, and the spot premium of polysilicon (against N - type re - investment) is - 5,865 yuan/ton [1] - **Price**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8,700 yuan/ton, and the price of polysilicon - N - type re - investment material is 53,500 yuan/ton [1] - **Profit**: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) is - 2,426.5 yuan/ton, and the profit of polysilicon enterprises is 9.2 yuan/kg [1] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 55.7 million tons, and the factory inventory of polysilicon is 30.6 million tons [1] - **Raw Material Cost**: The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang is 320 yuan/ton, and the price of graphite electrodes is 12,450 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Shaanxi Province plans to implement a differential electricity price policy from July 1, 2026. Restricted - category enterprises will have an additional 0.1 yuan/kWh, and eliminated - category enterprises will have an additional 0.3 yuan/kWh. This policy involves 3 industrial silicon enterprises in Shaanxi [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and the trend intensity of polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, attention should be paid to the production - cut rhythm of upstream factories [1]. - For polysilicon, it will fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to market fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: - Industrial silicon (Si2605): The closing price was 8,915 yuan/ton, with a change of 200 yuan compared to T - 1, 135 yuan compared to T - 5, and - 215 yuan compared to T - 22. The trading volume was 366,201 lots, and the open interest was 216,220 lots [2]. - Polysilicon (PS2605): The closing price was 57,890 yuan/ton, with a change of 1,390 yuan compared to T - 1 and - 1,335 yuan compared to T - 5 [2]. - **Basis Data**: - Industrial silicon: The spot premium/discount varied when对标 different grades. For example, when对标ing East China Si5530, it was + 335 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon: When对标ing N - type re - investment material, the spot premium/discount was - 5,890 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price Data**: - Industrial silicon: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,700 yuan/ton, and the price of Yunnan Si4210 was 10,000 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon: The price of N - type re - investment material was 52,500 yuan/ton [2]. - **Profit Data**: - Industrial silicon: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2,411.5 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) it was - 4,719 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon: The profit of polysilicon enterprises was 8.2 yuan/kg [2]. - **Inventory Data**: - Industrial silicon: The social inventory (including warehouse - receipt inventory) was 55.5 million tons, the enterprise inventory was 19.6 million tons, and the industry inventory was 75.1 million tons [2]. - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory was 30.3 million tons [2]. - **Raw Material Cost Data**: - Industrial silicon: The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang was 320 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan it was 250 yuan/ton [2]. - Other raw materials: The prices of washed coking coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. were also provided [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News On December 19, the completion ceremony of the deep - treatment project of the ore - heating furnace flue gas of Sichuan Fuxing New Materials Co., Ltd. was held, aiming at green transformation and high - quality regional development [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of industrial silicon was 0, and that of polysilicon was also 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Short on rallies [1] - Polysilicon: Pay attention to the impact of news [2] Report's Core View - The industry governance of the photovoltaic industry has entered a critical period. The Department of Electronic Information of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will further strengthen production - capacity regulation, promote the construction of a unified national market, manage photovoltaic manufacturing projects, and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity. It will also improve the price monitoring mechanism, crack down on illegal price - related and marketing behaviors, and strengthen product quality supervision [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: Si2605's closing price was 8,645 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 348,477 lots, and an open interest of 207,780 lots. PS2605's closing price was 59,300 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 398,819 lots, and an open interest of 139,860 lots [2] - **Price and Spread**: The spot premium of industrial silicon (against East China Si5530) was +555 yuan/ton. The near - month contract to the first continuous contract spread of polysilicon was 50.0 yuan/ton [2] - **Profit**: The profit of silicon plants (Xinjiang new standard 553) was - 2,681.5 yuan/ton, and the profit of polysilicon enterprises was 8.1 yuan/kg [2] - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse - receipt inventory) was 55.3 million tons, and polysilicon's manufacturer inventory was 29.3 million tons [2] - **Raw Material Cost**: The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang was 320 yuan/ton, and the price of graphite electrodes was 12,450 yuan/ton [2] Macro and Industry News - At the 2025 Photovoltaic Industry Annual Conference on December 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will strengthen production - capacity regulation, improve price monitoring, and crack down on illegal behaviors in the photovoltaic industry [4] Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: - 1; Polysilicon trend intensity: - 1 [4]

Report Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Short on rallies [1] - Polysilicon: Quotes are rising [2] Core Viewpoints - The report provides detailed fundamental data for industrial silicon and polysilicon, including futures market prices, trading volumes, open interests, basis, spot premiums and discounts, prices, profits, and inventory levels. It also mentions a macro and industry news item about the Yunnan electricity price bidding results [2]. Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: Si2605 closing price is 8,350 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan from T - 1, 325 yuan from T - 5, and 795 yuan from T - 22. PS2605 closing price is 58,030 yuan/ton, up 840 yuan from T - 1 and 3,485 yuan from T - 5. [2] - **Basis and Spot Premiums/Discounts**: Industrial silicon spot premiums are positive for different grades, while polysilicon spot premium (against N - type recycled material) is - 6030 yuan/ton, down 840 yuan from T - 1 and 3,485 yuan from T - 5. [2] - **Prices and Profits**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8750 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 and T - 5, and down 100 yuan from T - 22. Silicon plant profits are negative for Xinjiang and Yunnan new - standard 553. Polysilicon enterprise profit is 8.0 yuan/kg, up 0.4 yuan from T - 1 and T - 5, and 0.7 yuan from T - 22. [2] - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 56.1 million tons, with an increase of 0.3 million tons from T - 5 and 1.5 million tons from T - 22. Polysilicon manufacturer inventory is 29.3 million tons, with an increase of 0.2 million tons from T - 5 and 2.6 million tons from T - 22. [2] - **Raw Material Costs**: The prices of silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. are provided, with most remaining stable. [2] - **Polysilicon - related Products**: The prices of polysilicon - N - type recycled material, trichlorosilane, silicon powder, silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA are given, along with their price changes over different time periods. [2] - **Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy**: The price of DMC is 13600 yuan/ton, and DMC enterprise profit is 1788 yuan/ton. The price of ADC12 is 21600 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan from T - 1. [2] Macro and Industry News - Kunming Power Exchange Center announced the Yunnan electricity price bidding results for 2026. 1295 out of 1323 new - energy projects won the bid, with the clearing mechanism price for photovoltaic projects at 0.329 yuan/kWh and for wind power projects at 0.335 yuan/kWh. [2] Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 0; Polysilicon trend intensity: 1. The range of trend intensity is [- 2, 2], with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish. [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, profit, inventory, and raw material cost data. It also mentions the trend strength of industrial silicon and polysilicon, with industrial silicon at 0 (neutral) and polysilicon at 1 (偏强) [3]. 3. Content Summaries by Category 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: Si2601 (industrial silicon) closed at 8,285 yuan/ton with a trading volume of 203,929 lots, while PS2605 (polysilicon) closed at 55,765 yuan/ton with a trading volume of 197,180 lots [1]. - **Basis**: Industrial silicon's spot premium against different grades and polysilicon's spot premium against N - type re -投料 are presented, showing various price differences over different time intervals [1]. - **Price**: Prices of industrial silicon (e.g., Xinjiang 99 silicon at 8750 yuan/ton), polysilicon (N - type re -投料 at 52300 yuan/ton), and related products like silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are provided [1]. - **Profit**: Silicon factory profits for different grades in Xinjiang and Yunnan are negative, while polysilicon enterprise profit is 8.0 yuan/kg [1]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory is 56.1 million tons, enterprise inventory is 18.7 million tons, and polysilicon's factory inventory is 29.3 million tons [1]. - **Raw Material Cost**: Prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, and chemicals for polysilicon production are given [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Central Economic Work Conference from December 10 - 11 determined next year's economic work priorities, including reform, market construction, and financial system improvement [2][3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon has a trend intensity of 0 (neutral), and polysilicon has a trend intensity of 1 (偏强) [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - From the balance sheet perspective, the polysilicon market maintains a wide - balance pattern. The price support mainly comes from anti - involution expectations and price - holding by major enterprises. However, the inclusion of East Hope in the delivery list by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange may impact the pricing power of the industrial alliance. Next week's market will focus on the transfer of polysilicon pricing power. The contradiction between insufficient domestic demand and unexpected production cuts will strengthen market doubts about platform companies. The root cause lies in the long - term split pattern where high profits in the upstream lead to increased production and inventory accumulation, while low profits in the downstream result in production cuts and low inventory, without substantial improvement in inventory. High industry inventory may not have a substantial short - term impact, but if it forms a negative feedback and suppresses corporate cash flow, enterprises will have to passively reduce inventory and transfer profits to the downstream to achieve industrial chain profit balance. Investors should pay attention to enterprise warehouse receipt quotes. If the whole industry holds prices, the price difference between near - and far - month contracts will still show a BACK structure due to the scarcity of warehouse receipts. They also need to be aware of the increased volatility risk caused by the current polysilicon game [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Key Data Overview - As of December 5th, the 99 - silicon powder was quoted at 10,000 yuan/ton, with no daily or weekly change; the 553 silicon powder was quoted at 10,000 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.5%. The trichlorosilane price was 3,425 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.5%. The N - type granular silicon was quoted at 50 yuan/kg, with a weekly decrease of 1.0%; the N - type re - feeding material was quoted at 52.3 yuan/kg, with no daily or weekly change. The N - type silicon price index was 52.3 yuan/kg, with no daily or weekly change. The electronic - grade polysilicon was quoted at 27.9 US dollars/kg, with a weekly decrease of 0.2%; the overseas photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was quoted at 16.05 US dollars/kg, with a weekly increase of 0.6% [6] - As of December 5th, the weekly polysilicon production was 25,800 tons, with a weekly increase of 7.5% [7] - As of December 5th, the domestic polysilicon inventory was 291,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 3.6%. The N - type 182 silicon wafer (130μm) was quoted at 1.15 yuan/piece, with a weekly decrease of 2.5%; the N - type 210 silicon wafer (130μm) was quoted at 1.48 yuan/piece, with a daily decrease of 1.3% and a weekly decrease of 3.3%. As of July 21st, the single - crystal silicon wafer G12 - 210 was quoted at 1.03 yuan/piece, with no daily or weekly change; the single - crystal silicon wafer M10 - 182 was quoted at 1.58 yuan/piece, with no daily or weekly change [8] - As of December 5th, the weekly silicon wafer production was 11.95GW, with a weekly decrease of 0.6% [9] - As of December 5th, the silicon wafer inventory was 21.3GW, with a weekly increase of 9.2%. The single - crystal TOPcon:M10 battery was quoted at 0.283 yuan/watt, with a weekly decrease of 0.7%; the single - crystal TOPcon:G12 battery was quoted at 0.283 yuan/watt, with no daily or weekly change. The TOPcon - 182 (distributed) battery was quoted at 0.664 yuan/watt, with a weekly decrease of 0.3%; the TOPcon - 210 (distributed) battery was quoted at 0.68 yuan/watt, with a weekly decrease of 0.6%; the TOPcon - 210R (distributed) battery was quoted at 0.668 yuan/watt, with a weekly decrease of 0.4%; the N - type - 182 (centralized) battery was quoted at 0.67 yuan/watt, with no daily or weekly change; the N - type - 210 (centralized) battery was quoted at 0.69 yuan/watt, with no daily or weekly change [10] 3.2 Weekly Market Review 3.2.1 Spot Prices in the Industrial Chain - The report presents price trends of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components through charts, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [12] 3.2.2 Prices of Other Upstream and Downstream Materials - The report shows price trends of photovoltaic adhesive films, high - purity quartz sand/quartz crucibles, etc. through charts, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [14] 3.3 Key Data Tracking 3.3.1 Upstream and Downstream Data - The report presents data on weekly polysilicon production, polysilicon inventory, monthly photovoltaic battery production (silicon consumption), weekly photovoltaic battery inventory (silicon consumption), weekly photovoltaic component inventory (silicon consumption), and inventory changes through charts, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [20] 3.3.2 Export and Industry Profit Levels - The report shows data on weekly photovoltaic battery inventory changes, monthly photovoltaic component production (silicon consumption), component exports (equivalent polysilicon consumption), battery exports (equivalent polysilicon consumption), and profit levels of polysilicon, silicon wafers, batteries, and components through charts, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [24] 3.3.5 Weekly Key Data - As of November 30th, the polysilicon inventory was 29.1 tons, with a weekly increase of 1.00 tons and a weekly growth rate of 4%; the silicon wafer inventory (equivalent polysilicon inventory) was 4.05 tons, with a weekly increase of 0.34 tons and a weekly growth rate of 9%; the battery cell inventory (equivalent polysilicon inventory) was 1.53 tons, with a weekly decrease of 0.88 tons and a weekly decline rate of - 37%; the component inventory (equivalent polysilicon inventory) was 6.22 tons, with a weekly increase of 0.06 tons and a weekly growth rate of 1% [40]