Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates the median expected federal funds rates for the end of 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, and the long term are projected to be 3.6%, 3.4%, 3.1%, 3.1%, and 3.0% respectively, unchanged from the September projections [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Federal Funds Rate Projections** - The median expected federal funds rate for the end of 2025 is projected at 3.6% [1] - The median expected federal funds rate for the end of 2026 is projected at 3.4% [1] - The median expected federal funds rate for the end of 2027 is projected at 3.1% [1] - The median expected federal funds rate for the end of 2028 is projected at 3.1% [1] - The long-term median expected federal funds rate is projected at 3.0% [1]

Core Viewpoint - US Treasury bonds weakened after initial jobless claims and continuing claims data came in below expectations, leading to a flattening of the yield curve [1][3] Group 1: Yield Movements - The entire yield curve rose by 3 to 5 basis points after 3 PM ET, with the middle of the curve leading the decline [1][3] - The 10-year Treasury yield closed at approximately 4.105%, up 4 basis points on the day [4][6] - The 5s30s spread narrowed by nearly 2 basis points, reversing the steepening trend observed on Wednesday [1][3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The majority of the decline in bond prices occurred following the release of weekly jobless claims data, which initially triggered price volatility [5] - The overnight index swap (OIS) related to the federal funds rate expectations remained stable for the December meeting, implying a rate cut of about 22 basis points [5] - The longer end of the curve indicates an expected cumulative rate cut of approximately 60 basis points by the June meeting next year, although traders are betting on a deeper rate cut path in SOFR options [5] Group 3: Current Yield Rates - As of 3 PM ET, the yield rates were as follows: - 2-year Treasury yield at 3.5288% - 5-year Treasury yield at 3.6832% - 10-year Treasury yield at 4.1098% - 30-year Treasury yield at 4.7667% [2][6] Group 4: Yield Spreads - The spread between the 5-year and 30-year Treasury yields was reported at 108.17 basis points - The spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields was reported at 57.68 basis points [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates the median expectations for the federal funds rate at the end of 2025, 2026, 2027, and the long term are projected to be 3.9%, 3.6%, 3.4%, and 3.0% respectively, showing slight adjustments from previous projections [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Federal Funds Rate Projections** - The median federal funds rate expectations for the end of 2025 is 3.9%, for 2026 is 3.6%, for 2027 is 3.4%, and for the long term is 3.0% [1] - Comparatively, the March projections were 3.9% for 2025, 3.4% for 2026, 3.1% for 2027, and 3.0% for the long term, indicating a slight decrease in the 2026 and 2027 projections [1]