主播：冯紫彤 本期文案：冯紫彤 视频指导：曾婷芳 视频制作：刘晴 出品：飞钱说工作室 栏目统筹：耿雁冰 栏目策划：杨希 编辑：杨希 当地时间9月17日，美联储开展了自2024年12月以来的首次降息。事实上，要分析美联储的操作，就绕不开点阵图，什么是点阵图？点阵图怎么看？两分 钟，飞钱说带你看懂！ 设计：郑嘉琪 ...

周二（9月23日）亚盘早盘，美元指数最新价报97.35，涨幅0.04%，开盘价为97.31。 荷兰国际集团发布 的报告称，本发布的核心PCE通胀率（美联储偏爱的通胀衡量指标）可能会显得较为温和。 这也意味着对美国经济的压力可能仍会持续增加：通胀会进一步加剧，同时美国就业市场的需求方面也 会面临更大压力。虽然背景形势严峻，但这表明市场对于美联储未来货币政策放松的预期（比美联储本 周发布的最新"点阵图"所暗示的更为积极）是合理的。预计今年还会再有两次降息，2026年也会有两次 降息。 美元指数在布林带中轨上方运行，布林中轨97.0287，上轨97.2376，下轨96.8198。价格自96.2109的"针 刺式"低点迅速V形修复，并在96.8229一线形成二次回踩后的抬升节奏，说明下方买盘承接积极。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The dovish guidance from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell may exacerbate the weakness of the US dollar, potentially boosting Asian stock markets [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The strong performance of Asian stock markets this year has primarily been driven by local capital [1] - A renewed decline in the US dollar could stimulate capital flows from the US to emerging markets in search of diversified allocations [1] Group 2: Earnings Outlook - Analysts note that improvements in fundamentals and earnings have significantly contributed to the recent strength of Asian stock markets [1] - Due to trade agreements, earnings expectations for most Asian markets have been notably revised upward for the coming year [1] Group 3: Risks - If the Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates that the median interest rate forecast for 2026 remains unchanged, or if Powell downplays the prospect of rate cuts, this could pose a major risk for Asian markets [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve's Harker is approaching the upper end of the dot plot for interest rates [1] Group 2 - The statement indicates a potential shift in monetary policy as the Fed assesses economic conditions [1] - This could imply future interest rate hikes if economic indicators continue to support such actions [1] - The commentary reflects ongoing discussions within the Federal Reserve regarding inflation and economic growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25-4.5% during the June 2025 FOMC meeting, marking the fourth pause since the rate cut cycle began in September 2024. The Fed will continue to reduce its balance sheet, indicating a cautious approach to future monetary policy [1][7]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Decision - The FOMC unanimously voted to keep the federal funds rate unchanged, aligning with market expectations. The focus is on the implications of the decision, including the dot plot guidance for future policy, the Fed's understanding of the economy and inflation, and Powell's outlook [1][7]. Dot Plot Insights - The dot plot indicates a consensus among 19 participants, with 10 expecting at least two rate cuts in 2025, while 7 foresee no cuts. The projections for 2026 and 2027 suggest one cut each year, with policy rates expected to decline to 3.875%, 3.625%, and 3.375% respectively [2][9][10]. Economic Projections - The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) reflects a cautious outlook, with GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 revised down to 1.4% and 1.6%. Unemployment rate expectations for 2025 and 2026 have been slightly increased to 4.5% [3][11][12]. Powell's Optimism - Powell expressed a relatively optimistic view on the economy, noting improved business sentiment and a stable job market. He acknowledged the delayed impact of tariffs on inflation and economic data [4][14][15]. FOMC Statement Changes - The FOMC statement showed minor changes, indicating a reduction in uncertainty regarding the economic outlook but still highlighting elevated risks. The committee no longer views the probability of rising unemployment and inflation as worsening [5][17][18]. Neutral Stance and Future Flexibility - The meeting's neutral stance allows for flexibility in responding to economic data changes. The Fed faces a dilemma between cutting rates to support employment and maintaining high rates to control inflation [6][20]. The market anticipates a low probability of rate cuts in July, with a 57.9% chance of a cut in September [6][21].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates a reduction in the expected number of interest rate cuts in 2026 compared to previous forecasts, signaling a more cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments in the coming years [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections - **Interest Rate Cuts Forecast** - The Federal Reserve anticipates two rate cuts in 2025, each by 25 basis points, consistent with the March forecast - For 2026, the expectation is reduced to one rate cut of 25 basis points, down from two in the March forecast - In 2027, one rate cut of 25 basis points is still anticipated, aligning with earlier projections [1]. - **Current Interest Rate Context** - The median interest rate is projected to be in the range of 3.75%-4.00% by the end of 2025, which is 75 basis points lower than the current level of 4.25%-4.5% - Cumulatively, this would result in three rate cuts by the end of 2026, with two occurring in 2025 and one in 2026 [1].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates that seven officials do not expect interest rate cuts in 2025 [1] Group 1 - Seven Federal Reserve officials project that there will be no interest rate cuts in 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates the median expectations for the federal funds rate at the end of 2025, 2026, 2027, and the long term are projected to be 3.9%, 3.6%, 3.4%, and 3.0% respectively, showing slight adjustments from previous projections [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Federal Funds Rate Projections** - The median federal funds rate expectations for the end of 2025 is 3.9%, for 2026 is 3.6%, for 2027 is 3.4%, and for the long term is 3.0% [1] - Comparatively, the March projections were 3.9% for 2025, 3.4% for 2026, 3.1% for 2027, and 3.0% for the long term, indicating a slight decrease in the 2026 and 2027 projections [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates that the median expectation for the federal funds rate by the end of 2025 is 3.9%, unchanged from the March forecast [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Interest Rate Projections** - The median federal funds rate expectation for the end of 2025 remains at 3.9%, consistent with the previous March forecast [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates a divided outlook among its officials regarding interest rate cuts in 2025, with varying expectations on the number of potential cuts [1] Summary by Categories Interest Rate Expectations - Out of 19 officials, 7 believe there will be no rate cuts in 2025 [1] - 2 officials expect one rate cut [1] - 8 officials anticipate two rate cuts [1] - 2 officials predict three rate cuts [1]