(本文来自第一财经) 美联储点阵图显示，2025、2026、2027、2028年底和长期联邦基金利率预期中值分别为3.6%、3.4%、 3.1%、3.1%、3.0%。（9月预期为3.6%、3.4%、3.1%、3.1%、3.0%。） ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 一、点阵图：窥探利率路径的"密码本" 美联储点阵图本质上是一张"利率预期图"，可以把它想象成美联储官员们对未来利率走势的"匿名投票 结果"，是洞察美联储政策风向的重要工具。 简单来说，点阵图是一张由许多小点组成的散点图：横轴代表时间，比如2025年、2026年以及"长期"； 纵轴则代表利率水平。图上的每一个点，都代表一位美联储官员对特定年份年底时，认为的"合理"利率 水平是多少。 张驰宁 投资咨询号：Z0020302 国泰君安期货市场分析师 2025年最后一次FOMC会议，即将在美东时间12月10日（对应北京时间本周四凌晨）正式举行，全球市 场的目光正聚焦着美联储的一举一动。 对于期货投资者而言，市场当前虽普遍预期本次会议将降息25个基点，且贵金属和有色金属板块的近期 反弹已部分计入该预期，但作为年终收官之战，真正的看点或在于可能引发"预期差"的细节。 这些细节主要包括最新的"点阵图"对未来降息路径的指引、美联储内部投票分歧的严重程度，以及鲍威 尔在新闻发布会上对经济前景和后续政策灵活性的表态，它们将共同影响美国长期政策利率的走向。 资料来源： ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve conducted its first interest rate cut since December 2024 on September 17, indicating a shift in monetary policy direction [2] Group 1 - The analysis of the Federal Reserve's actions is closely tied to the dot plot, which is a key tool for understanding interest rate projections [2] - The dot plot serves as a visual representation of the Federal Open Market Committee members' expectations for future interest rates [2] - Understanding how to interpret the dot plot is essential for grasping the implications of the Federal Reserve's decisions [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from ING suggests that the core PCE inflation rate, a preferred measure of inflation by the Federal Reserve, may appear relatively mild, indicating ongoing pressure on the U.S. economy with increasing inflation and greater strain on the job market [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The latest dollar index price is reported at 97.35, with a slight increase of 0.04% from an opening price of 97.31 [1] - The core PCE inflation rate is expected to show a mild appearance, which may lead to sustained economic pressures [1] - The market's expectations for future monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve are considered reasonable, with predictions of two more rate cuts this year and two additional cuts in 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - The dollar index is operating above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with the middle band at 97.0287, the upper band at 97.2376, and the lower band at 96.8198 [1] - The price has quickly recovered from a "spike" low of 96.2109, forming a second bounce at around 96.8229, indicating strong buying support below [1]

Core Viewpoint - The dovish guidance from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell may exacerbate the weakness of the US dollar, potentially boosting Asian stock markets [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The strong performance of Asian stock markets this year has primarily been driven by local capital [1] - A renewed decline in the US dollar could stimulate capital flows from the US to emerging markets in search of diversified allocations [1] Group 2: Earnings Outlook - Analysts note that improvements in fundamentals and earnings have significantly contributed to the recent strength of Asian stock markets [1] - Due to trade agreements, earnings expectations for most Asian markets have been notably revised upward for the coming year [1] Group 3: Risks - If the Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates that the median interest rate forecast for 2026 remains unchanged, or if Powell downplays the prospect of rate cuts, this could pose a major risk for Asian markets [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve's Harker is approaching the upper end of the dot plot for interest rates [1] Group 2 - The statement indicates a potential shift in monetary policy as the Fed assesses economic conditions [1] - This could imply future interest rate hikes if economic indicators continue to support such actions [1] - The commentary reflects ongoing discussions within the Federal Reserve regarding inflation and economic growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25-4.5% during the June 2025 FOMC meeting, marking the fourth pause since the rate cut cycle began in September 2024. The Fed will continue to reduce its balance sheet, indicating a cautious approach to future monetary policy [1][7]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Decision - The FOMC unanimously voted to keep the federal funds rate unchanged, aligning with market expectations. The focus is on the implications of the decision, including the dot plot guidance for future policy, the Fed's understanding of the economy and inflation, and Powell's outlook [1][7]. Dot Plot Insights - The dot plot indicates a consensus among 19 participants, with 10 expecting at least two rate cuts in 2025, while 7 foresee no cuts. The projections for 2026 and 2027 suggest one cut each year, with policy rates expected to decline to 3.875%, 3.625%, and 3.375% respectively [2][9][10]. Economic Projections - The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) reflects a cautious outlook, with GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 revised down to 1.4% and 1.6%. Unemployment rate expectations for 2025 and 2026 have been slightly increased to 4.5% [3][11][12]. Powell's Optimism - Powell expressed a relatively optimistic view on the economy, noting improved business sentiment and a stable job market. He acknowledged the delayed impact of tariffs on inflation and economic data [4][14][15]. FOMC Statement Changes - The FOMC statement showed minor changes, indicating a reduction in uncertainty regarding the economic outlook but still highlighting elevated risks. The committee no longer views the probability of rising unemployment and inflation as worsening [5][17][18]. Neutral Stance and Future Flexibility - The meeting's neutral stance allows for flexibility in responding to economic data changes. The Fed faces a dilemma between cutting rates to support employment and maintaining high rates to control inflation [6][20]. The market anticipates a low probability of rate cuts in July, with a 57.9% chance of a cut in September [6][21].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates a reduction in the expected number of interest rate cuts in 2026 compared to previous forecasts, signaling a more cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments in the coming years [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections - **Interest Rate Cuts Forecast** - The Federal Reserve anticipates two rate cuts in 2025, each by 25 basis points, consistent with the March forecast - For 2026, the expectation is reduced to one rate cut of 25 basis points, down from two in the March forecast - In 2027, one rate cut of 25 basis points is still anticipated, aligning with earlier projections [1]. - **Current Interest Rate Context** - The median interest rate is projected to be in the range of 3.75%-4.00% by the end of 2025, which is 75 basis points lower than the current level of 4.25%-4.5% - Cumulatively, this would result in three rate cuts by the end of 2026, with two occurring in 2025 and one in 2026 [1].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates that seven officials do not expect interest rate cuts in 2025 [1] Group 1 - Seven Federal Reserve officials project that there will be no interest rate cuts in 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates the median expectations for the federal funds rate at the end of 2025, 2026, 2027, and the long term are projected to be 3.9%, 3.6%, 3.4%, and 3.0% respectively, showing slight adjustments from previous projections [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Federal Funds Rate Projections** - The median federal funds rate expectations for the end of 2025 is 3.9%, for 2026 is 3.6%, for 2027 is 3.4%, and for the long term is 3.0% [1] - Comparatively, the March projections were 3.9% for 2025, 3.4% for 2026, 3.1% for 2027, and 3.0% for the long term, indicating a slight decrease in the 2026 and 2027 projections [1]