据ETOMarkets出入金的消息，周二纽约早盘，10年期美债收益率自10月8日以来首次盘中跌破4%，最 低探至3.96%；同一时刻，摩根大通机构客户调查创下2008年雷曼兄弟倒闭以来最极端的净多头纪录 ——做多的力量已压倒性地盖过空头。 不到两周前，鲍威尔在IMF年会上还重申"加息工具仍在桌面"，如今市场却用真金白银押注：美联储12 月18日会议将降息25个基点，概率从30%飙升至80%，芝加哥商品交易所的1月联邦基金期货合约更是 连续两日刷新历史成交天量。 更关键的推力来自美联储内部的"鸽声大合唱"。纽约联储主席、享有FOMC永久投票权的威廉姆斯周一 晚间的讲话被市场视为"鲍威尔亮出底牌"——他承认"政策限制性水平已相当高"，并强调"双重使命中 就业下行风险正在累积"。 法国兴业银行策略师Rajappa指出，鲍威尔只要再拉拢两位摇摆票委员，就能在12月会议上拿到多数 票，"疲软非农与持续回落的通胀给了他足够理由"。BrandywineGlobal的TracyChen统计了最近两周美联 储官员的公开表态：明确支持"再降一次"的鸽派已升至9人，反对立即行动的鹰派仅剩4人，为2022年3 月启动加息以来最悬殊的 ...

而在短短几天内，市场对美联储的利率预期发生了戏剧性逆转。 与美联储基准利率挂钩的期货合约持仓量在过去三个交易日飙升，其中1月合约上周连续两个 交易日成交量创下历史新高。 （绿线美联储12月降息概率vs蓝线明年1月降息概率） 市场定价显示，交易员们认为下个月降息25个基点的可能性已高达约80%，而就在几天前，这一概率还仅为30%。 给财经人的礼物！ 金融圈"明星"日历 美联储官员"鸽声"推动市场预期逆转 投资者正大举押注美联储将在下月会议上再次降息。 周二，10年期美国国债收益率一个月来首次盘中跌破4%，摩根大通本周的客户调查显示，投资者的美债净多头头寸已升至约十五年来的最高水平。 （10年期美债收益率自鲍威尔10月份发表鹰派言论以来首次跌破4.00%） 华尔街见闻提及，美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特成为下任美联储主席热门人选的消息，提振了市场对未来一年利率走低的预期。 在过去两年多的20次美联储会议中，仅有三次交易员在如此接近政策决定时未完全消化结果。 就在几天前，市场对12月降息的押注概率仅为30%，但形势在短短几日内急剧逆转。 法国兴业银行策略师Rajappa表示， 尽管一些更担忧通胀的官员提出反对，但 ...

投资者大举押注美联储政策制定者下月会议将再次降息，此前一周市场对降息的疑虑已逐渐消散(曾一 度认为降息可能性较低)，为美国国债上涨奠定基础。过去三个交易日，交易员持有与美联储基准利率 挂钩的期货合约新增头寸规模激增，上周1月合约连续创下日成交量纪录。当前市场定价显示，美联储 12月会议降息25个基点的概率约为80%，而仅几天前这一概率还仅为30%。 周二，10年期美国国债收益率一个月来首次跌破4%——此前白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特成为 下任美联储主席的热门人选，进一步提升了市场对未来一年降息的预期。 达成共识 美联储官员在会议前引导华尔街预判最终决策以避免意外，这一做法较为常见。过去两年多来(涵盖20 次美联储会议)，仅有三次出现临近政策决策时，交易员尚未完全消化预期结果的情况。 自上周四以来，1月联邦基金期货新增头寸总量接近27.5万份合约。这相当于每基点风险约1150万美 元，占截至周二收盘该期限合约总未平仓合约的37%。该合约价格从上周四的96.18低点上涨至周一的 96.35高点，显示新增多头头寸持续流入。 利率预期的转变始于上周延迟公布的9月非农就业数据——该数据呈现喜忧参半的态势。随后在周 ...

美联储12月降息前景扑朔迷离，市场分歧加剧 近期美联储12月降息预期出现戏剧性逆转，利率掉期市场显示降息概率跌破50%，而期权市场却涌现大量押注降息的SOFR合约（未平仓量达86.3万份）。 关键矛盾点在于：经济数据延迟发布（如10月失业救济人数激增、私营岗位减少）加剧不确定性，美联储内部罕见出现"三向分裂"——理事沃勒支持降息， 达拉斯联储主席洛根反对，堪萨斯城联储主席施密德则主张按兵不动。鲍威尔直言12月降息"远非确定"，导致CME利率期货定价从94.4%暴跌至45.8%。 市场陷入"数据迷雾"，降息逻辑遭遇信任危机 这场博弈暴露出美联储沟通机制的失效：政府停摆导致经济数据真空，官员表态矛盾（如沃勒强调"劳动力市场疲软"而洛根质疑通胀进展），使得投资者转 向SOFR期权对冲风险。网友调侃"美联储在玩狼人杀"，而分析师警告若12月不降息，美债收益率曲线或再度倒挂。争议背后是更深层的政策困境——通胀 黏性与经济放缓压力并存，降息周期能否持续已成全球市场悬案。 当利率掉期市场将美联储12月降息概率压至40%的冰点时，期权市场却涌现出86.3万份SOFR期权未平仓合约的巨量押注。这种罕见分歧背后，隐藏着华尔 街对 ...

Core Viewpoint - US Treasury bonds experienced a mild increase on Tuesday, with yields fluctuating within a narrow range as the stock market faced declines, indicating a cautious sentiment among investors regarding high valuations [1] Group 1: Market Performance - US Treasury yields fell by 2-3 basis points across various maturities, with the 10-year Treasury yield closing at 4.085%, down 2.5 basis points, approaching the day's low [1] - The S&P 500 index declined by approximately 1.2%, while the Nasdaq 100 index fell by about 2% during the trading session [1] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Wall Street executives warned investors to prepare for a potential pullback in the stock market from high valuation levels, contributing to the negative sentiment [1] - There was a notable demand for upward hedging in SOFR options, reflecting an increasing expectation for a loosening of Federal Reserve policies [1] Group 3: SOFR Options Activity - A significant trade in SOFR options involved a dovish hedge, betting on two rate cuts before the March 18 policy meeting next year, which is more dovish than the current market's implied expectation of a total cut of 35 basis points over the next three meetings [1] Group 4: Treasury Futures Trading - Trading volume in Treasury futures remained subdued, reaching only 75% of the 20-day average by 3 PM Eastern Time [1] Group 5: Yield Data - As of 3 PM Eastern Time, the following Treasury yields were reported: - 2-year yield at 3.5799% - 5-year yield at 3.6993% - 10-year yield at 4.0871% - 30-year yield at 4.6676% - The spread between the 5-year and 30-year yields was 96.65 basis points, while the spread between the 2-year and 10-year yields was 50.51 basis points [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield dropping to a six-month low, bond traders are preparing for further declines in yields, driven by rising costs of options that protect against significant yield drops and concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Positioning - The cost of bullish options on U.S. Treasuries has significantly increased relative to bearish options, indicating a strong market sentiment towards further declines in yields [1] - Traders are heavily investing in high-quality safe-haven assets, with a notable increase in bullish positions on U.S. Treasuries as they anticipate yields may drop to 3.75%-3.70% [2][3] - A recent survey by JPMorgan shows a slight increase in short positions and a decrease in long positions, suggesting a market structure that could lead to price increases due to short covering [2][3] Group 2: SOFR Options Activity - The most active SOFR options include a significant increase in open interest for call options with a strike price of 96.5625, reflecting expectations of a potential 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [4] - Recent trading activity around the 96.50 strike price indicates a concentration of positions, with traders buying various call spreads to capitalize on anticipated rate cuts [5] - The open interest for both call and put options at the 96.25 strike price has also increased, indicating a buildup of new risk positions in the market [5]

Group 1 - Global traders are betting on the Federal Reserve implementing at least one unconventional rate cut by the end of the year, shifting from a gradual easing expectation to a more aggressive policy adjustment to address potential economic pressures [1][3] - Market funds are increasingly flowing into positions targeting the Fed's November or December policy meetings, with a clear core bet on a "single rate cut of 50 basis points," indicating a concentrated betting strategy rather than scattered trades [3] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has delayed key economic data releases, creating a "data vacuum," but market behavior has already anticipated future data, which may reveal weaknesses in U.S. economic growth momentum [3] Group 2 - The recent escalation of global trade tensions, including tariff policy adjustments and supply chain restructuring rumors, has heightened concerns about U.S. exports and manufacturing, potentially suppressing economic recovery and increasing the likelihood of aggressive Fed easing [3] - Investors are advised to maintain a slightly bullish positioning in light of economic data uncertainty and trade disruptions, as excessive caution may lead to missed opportunities for potential gains [4] - The "data blindness" caused by the U.S. government shutdown is affecting global policymakers, complicating their ability to assess external environments and increasing the risk of policy misjudgments in major economies like Japan, the Eurozone, and the UK [4]

期权市场交易员正押注美联储在年底前至少进行一次50个基点的大幅降息，这一预期比利率互换市场当前定价的两次25个基点降息更为激进。 近期与担保隔夜融资利率(SOFR)挂钩的期权市场显示，交易员正在为美联储10月或12月会议降息50个基点建仓。 12月SOFR期权的未平仓合约大幅飙升，这些期权在12月10日政策公布后两天到期，成为押注今年剩余两次会议的理想工具。这一看涨情绪也体 现在现货市场，美国两年期国债收益率近期跌至年内低点3.5%附近。 期权押注集中于年底大幅降息 期权市场是观察交易员预期的重要窗口，近期迹象清晰地指向了对美联储采取更激进行动的押注。 与12月SOFR挂钩的期权出现了明显的买盘，其未平仓合约——衡量交易员持有新增风险的指标——急剧上升。由于这些期权合约在12月10日美联 储政策声明发布两天后到期，它们成为了押注年内剩余两次会议政策走向的理想工具。 本周的交易延续了上周以来的趋势，交易员们买入了多种旨在对冲"鸽派情景"（例如50个基点降息）的期权结构。 具体交易流水显示，有资金买入了96.50/96.5625和96.50/96.625的看涨期权价差组合，周一还有买家购入了96.5625/96. ...

Core Viewpoint - Traders are significantly betting that the Federal Reserve will implement at least one unconventional rate cut before the end of the year, with expectations for a more aggressive policy than currently anticipated by market observers [1] Group 1: Market Activity - Recent trading activity in options linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) indicates that the market is accumulating bets on a potential 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in upcoming meetings [1][4] - The SOFR options for December have seen a notable increase in open interest, suggesting a growing risk exposure among traders ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy announcements [4] - Cash markets are showing bullish sentiment, with recent increases in U.S. Treasury prices leading to a drop in the two-year Treasury yield to around 3.5%, the lowest this year [4] Group 2: Options Trading Trends - There has been a surge in demand for call options structures that reflect a steeper rate cut path by the Federal Reserve than currently priced in the swap market, particularly for SOFR options expiring in December 2025, March 2026, and June 2026 [7] - The most active SOFR options include various call spreads, indicating a strong market belief in a 50 basis point cut during the Federal Reserve's policy meetings [7][9] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - A recent survey by JPMorgan Chase revealed that the neutral positioning among investors has reached its highest level in a month, with a decrease in short positions and stable long positions [4] - The skew in U.S. Treasury options indicates that traders are more willing to pay higher premiums to hedge against the risk of rising bond prices (falling yields), reflecting a shift in sentiment towards a more dovish outlook [12]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury bonds have experienced a strong upward trend driven by safe-haven demand, with significant declines in yields across various maturities, indicating market expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - As of October 11, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October has risen to 98.3%, while the likelihood of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December stands at 91.7% [4]. - Market pricing of OIS contracts suggests an expected rate cut of approximately 23 basis points in October, with a total of 46 basis points expected by year-end, reflecting an increase from the previous trading day [4]. Group 2: Contributing Factors - The recent rally in the bond market is attributed to multiple factors, including a significant drop in WTI crude oil prices by 4.2%, alleviating inflation concerns, and the strengthening of UK bonds providing additional support to U.S. Treasuries [5]. - Ongoing issues related to the U.S. government shutdown have delayed the release of key economic data, further enhancing market demand for safe-haven assets [5]. - The Labor Department has recalled some staff to prepare for the delayed release of September CPI data on October 24, coinciding with the Federal Reserve's policy meeting [5]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Officials' Stance - Federal Reserve Governor Waller has expressed support for continued rate cuts but emphasizes a cautious approach, advocating for a gradual reduction strategy due to conflicting signals from the labor market and persistent inflation above target levels [6]. - Newly appointed Governor Stephen Milan has proposed a more aggressive rate cut path, suggesting a one-time cut of 50 basis points and a total reduction of 125 basis points by year-end, although Waller warns against overly aggressive cuts due to potential risks [6]. - Prior to these statements, Waller was reported to be a candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, indicating ongoing discussions focused on policy rather than political matters [6].