最新迹象显示，美国期货和期权市场的交易员正纷纷押注美联储明年将继续降息，而非加息。 如下图所示，与有担保隔夜融资利率(SOFR)挂钩的期货利差目前正呈现深度倒挂——该利差密切反映 美联储政策预期。这标志着交易员开始对更长时间的央行宽松周期进行定价。 美联储理事库克周二便警告称，央行可能无力应对人工智能普及所引发的失业率上升。 自上周末以来，上述SOFR利差的趋平趋势明显加速，这恰逢业内对人工智能颠覆性担忧加剧，波及大 量股票，并引发长期国债价格上涨。 "关键在于人工智能如何引发通胀，而长期收益率曲线或许已嗅到了这些端倪，"Brandywine全球投资管 理公司投资组合经理Jack McIntyre表示。"AI唯一可能引发通胀的环节是数据中心建设及相关能源需 求，而这已是既定事实。" 数据显示，2026年12月与2027年12月的12个月期SOFR利差上周五开始转负，周二这一倒挂幅度扩大 至-8个基点，表明投资者已从定价2027年加息转向定价降息。周一交易时段该12个月期利差成交量突破 15万手，创历史新高。 在SOFR期权市场上，类似的鸽派主题也正通过押注今年多次降息的对冲交易显现。 周二此类交易再度活跃，其 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美国期货和期权市场的交易员正大量押注，美联储将持续降息至明年，而非重启加 息。 与有担保隔夜融资利率挂钩的期货价差(该利率密切追踪市场对美联储政策的预期)正变得深度倒挂—— 这标志着交易员开始定价一个更为持久的央行宽松周期。 直到最近，交易员还在押注，在美联储今年底前完成两次各25个基点的降息后，2027年将恢复加息。然 而，围绕人工智能对劳动力市场影响的讨论日益激烈，正促使他们重新评估这一前景。周二，美联储理 事丽莎·库克警告称，面对由AI应用普及所导致的失业率上升，央行可能无力应对。 自上周晚些时候以来，SOFR价差的趋平走势加速，恰逢对AI颠覆性影响的担忧拖累了一众股票，并引 发长期美债上涨。 "问题在于，AI将如何引发通胀，而也许收益率曲线的长端正在感知到这一切，"Brandywine Global Investment Management投资组合经理杰克·麦金太尔表示。"AI唯一可能引发通胀的方面是数据中心的建 设及其相关的能源需求，而这是已知的。" 在SOFR期权市场，类似的鸽派主题正在浮现，交易倾向于对冲今年多次降息的前景。这些交易周二再 度活跃，其中一笔头寸规模不断扩大， ...

随着贝莱德(BLK.US)首席投资官里克.里德尔(Rick Rieder)出任美联储下任主席的呼声日益高涨，债券期 货交易员正加大押注美联储将转向鸽派政策。 近日，与美联储政策基准利率——担保隔夜融资利率(SOFR)和联邦基金利率挂钩的利率期货市场资金 流动显著提速，与此同时，预测市场显示里德尔出任下任美联储主席的赔率跃居首位。 周一公布的联邦基金期货与SOFR期货持仓数据显示，市场对新交易的需求持续攀升，这类交易将从比 当前定价更激进的降息路径中获益。值得关注的是，7-8月的1个月期联邦基金利率期货利差、6-12月的 6个月期SOFR期货利差均录得历史成交量。 作为华尔街资深人士，市场认为里德尔若执掌美联储，将推行以市场为核心的政策思路。去年9月，他 曾主张美联储采取更激进的50个基点降息举措，而非美联储此前偏好的25个基点小幅降息;同时，他也 对美联储通过"点阵图"为未来利率走势提供前瞻性指引的做法持反对态度。 包括Krishna Guha在内的Evercore ISI经济学家本周早些时候撰文称："里德尔倾向于鸽派利率政策，或 推动美联储今年实施三次降息。"该观点的依据是里德尔对生产率、通胀动态及劳动力市 ...

Core Viewpoint - US Treasury bonds are under pressure, maintaining a downward trend during trading hours, influenced by geopolitical tensions and market risk aversion [1][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - The long end of the US Treasury yield curve steepened, with yields rising by up to 8 basis points compared to the previous trading day [1][4]. - The 2-year/10-year yield spread widened by 6 basis points, while the 5-year/30-year spread increased by 4.5 basis points [1][4]. Group 2: Yield Data - As of 3:05 PM Eastern Time, the yields were reported as follows: 2-year at 3.5947%, 5-year at 3.854%, 10-year at 4.2906%, and 30-year at 4.9179% [3][6]. - The yield spread between 5-year and 30-year bonds was 106.21 basis points, and the spread between 2-year and 10-year bonds was 69.37 basis points [3][6]. Group 3: Trading Activity - Strong demand for 5-year and 10-year Treasury bonds helped prevent a more significant sell-off, with notable purchases totaling approximately $12.5 million/DV01 [5]. - The S&P 500 index fell by about 2%, while gold prices rose nearly 2%, reflecting market reactions to heightened tensions between the US and Europe [5].

Core Viewpoint - Increasingly, traders focused on options are shifting away from expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, betting instead that rates will remain unchanged throughout the year, which could yield positive returns if realized [1][2][3]. Group 1: Labor Market and Economic Indicators - The December non-farm payroll data showed a modest increase of 50,000 jobs, slightly below economists' expectations of 60,000, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped from a revised 4.6% in November to 4.4%, indicating a recovery in the labor market [3][5]. - The Challenger, Gray & Christmas report indicated that U.S. companies announced 35,553 job cuts in December, the lowest level since July 2024, alongside plans to add approximately 10,500 new positions, exceeding market expectations [5]. - The ADP Research data also suggested a mild expansion in the job market, with an increase of 41,000 jobs in December, following a significant decline in the previous month [5]. Group 2: Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a steady decline but remains above the Fed's long-term target of 2%, reducing the urgency for further rate cuts [3][6]. - The CME FedWatch Tool indicated that traders have reduced their expectations for rate cuts in 2026 from three to two, with the first anticipated cut now pushed to June instead of March [2][3]. - The overall sentiment in the market is shifting towards the possibility of the Fed maintaining rates unchanged throughout 2026, as the labor market stabilizes and inflation remains persistent [2][3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trading Strategies - Recent trading activity in SOFR options reflects a more hawkish sentiment, with significant demand for options hedging against the possibility of delayed rate cuts [10][17]. - The concentration of put options at the 96.375 strike price indicates that traders are positioning themselves for a scenario where rates remain high or do not decline further, suggesting a shift in market expectations towards maintaining current rates [17][20]. - The overall structure of SOFR options indicates that traders are increasingly abandoning expectations of significant rate cuts this year, favoring a more prolonged period of stable rates [20][21].

美国国债周一小幅收跌，收益率曲线趋陡。周日有关美联储受到联邦刑事调查的消息导致市场情绪悲 观，盖过了3年期和10年期国债标售遇良好需求带来的提振。今年的首个债券发行周期将于周二结束， 届时将续发行30年期国债。 纽约时间下午3点过后不久，美国国债收益率小幅上涨1-3个基点；10年期国债收益率接近4.185%，日间 走高约2个基点，此前在美国早盘交易中一度触及4.205%。随后，受超长期债券期货大宗交易及标售结 果的支撑，国债跌幅有所收窄。 上午11：30的580亿美元3年期国债中标收益率较发行前交易水平低0.1个基点，下午1点的390亿美元10 年期国债续发行较发行前交易水平低0.7个基点。 10年期国债标售中，一级交易商获配5.8%，为纪录最低水平之一，直接投标人获配24.5%，为2014年以 来最高，间接投标人获配比例降至69.6%。 在SOFR期权方面，自周五公布12月就业数据以来，对下行风险对冲的需求持续存在，其中26年3月、26 年6月和26年9月到期的期权交易引人注目。 截至下午3点，期货成交量仍维持在高位，较20日平均水平高出约25%； 截至纽约时间下午3：41，美国2年期国债收益率报3.540 ...

美国国债期权交易员正在加大押注，预计10年期美国国债收益率将突破近期区间，并在未来几周内跌破 4%，降至11月以来的最低水平。自去年12月底以来，期权市场的多头倾向持续增强，此前投资者一直 处于观望状态，等待本周开始陆续公布的、不受美国政府停摆影响的关键经济数据。过去一个月，基准 10年期美国国债收益率在0.1个百分点左右的范围内波动。 周二公布的仓位数据显示，3月份10年期期权的买盘进一步扩大，目标看好债券价格上涨。本周的资金 流动中，有一位大买家买入合约，预期收益率将从目前的略低于4.2%降至3.95%左右。 这些期权将于2月20日到期，这意味着它们的定价包含了美联储1月28日的下一次政策声明。交易员们预 计，在连续三次降息以应对就业市场降温迹象后，美联储可能会暂停降息。 与此同时，根据摩根大通公司对美国国债客户的每周调查，现货市场情绪已转为悲观。调查显示，空头 头寸大幅增加，这可能会提振空头回补需求，如果即将公布的数据加剧了人们对经济增长的担忧，则可 能导致收益率下降。 摩根大通调查 截至1月5日当周，摩根大通客户的多头头寸下降了11个百分点，而空头头寸上升了6个百分点。因此， 所有客户的调查显示，净多 ...

Group 1 - The unexpected rise in unemployment rate in November adds uncertainty to the mixed signals surrounding the U.S. economic outlook, leading bond traders to favor short-term U.S. Treasuries over long-term ones [1] - The yield spread between 2-year and 30-year U.S. Treasuries has widened to its largest extent in over four years, reflecting market expectations that the Federal Reserve will likely cut rates at least twice next year despite persistent inflation and strong economic growth [1] - The "curve steepening" trade is gaining traction, betting that the yield gap between short-term and long-term debt will continue to expand, with the upcoming release of November consumer price data set to further test this trade [1] Group 2 - A significant large-scale spread trade in the futures market aligns with the widening yield spread between 2-year and 30-year Treasuries, indicating a profit of $3 million within a day as the spread increased from 132 basis points to approximately 137 basis points [2] - As of the week ending December 15, investor direct long positions increased by 6 percentage points, shifting from neutral to long, while direct short positions remained unchanged [2] Group 3 - In the SOFR options market, there has been a notable increase in risk exposure for options expiring on March 26, June 26, and September 26, particularly for various call and put options, as traders hedge against potential dovish and hawkish policy scenarios from the Federal Reserve [5] - The largest open interest is observed at the 96.50 strike price for March 26 options, with significant positions also at the 96.375 strike price [7] Group 4 - The premium for put options used to hedge U.S. Treasury risks has continued to tilt towards bearish options, indicating strong demand for Treasuries amid expectations that long-term yields will underperform compared to short- and medium-term yields [10] - The steepness of the yield curve between 2-year and 30-year Treasuries reached its highest level since November 2021, exceeding 137 basis points [10]

智通财经APP获悉，债券交易员押注美联储未来一年降息幅度将较为平缓，这是全球范围内押注美联储 将放缓或停止货币宽松政策的趋势的一部分。除了周三预期的25个基点降息外，期货和期权交易显示， 交易员们现在预计美联储将在2026年总共降息50个基点，其中大部分降息将集中在今年上半年。这与一 周前利率互换市场预期明年将降息近三次的情况截然相反。类似的鹰派情绪也迅速在澳大利亚、新西兰 以及最近的加拿大和欧元区等经济体中重燃。 在美国，这一转变发生在关键的劳动力市场数据开始发布之前，该报告延迟至下周公布，这些数据很可 能决定市场目前对美联储的看法是否会持续。周二，美国就业岗位空缺率指标超出预期。该数据推高了 美国国债收益率，并凸显了政策制定者在本周开会时面临的挑战，因为此时通胀仍然居高不下。 New York Life Investments首席市场策略师Lauren Goodwin表示，在物价持续承压的背景下，更大幅度的 降息可能会使美联储对抗通胀的信誉受到质疑。她表示，在美联储的政策路径上，"我们比市场略微鹰 派一些"。她还说，"美联储在2026年加息绝对存在风险"，尽管这并非他们的基本预期。 市场对美联储降息预期减 ...

Group 1 - The total sovereign debt issued by the U.S. Treasury has surpassed $30 trillion for the first time, having more than doubled since 2018, with the latest figure at $30.2 trillion as of November [2] - The U.S. federal total debt is primarily composed of the $30.2 trillion in outstanding Treasury bills, notes, and bonds [2] - The SOFR options market is currently focused on various structured trades for the first two quarters of next year to hedge against the potential for multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with the effective rate for the June meeting priced at approximately 3.30%, about 60 basis points lower than the current effective rate [2] Group 2 - Gold prices opened at $4203.4 and reached a high of $4216.9 before facing resistance and subsequently declining, with a low of $4175.1, closing at $4208.9 [3] - The daily candlestick pattern formed a long lower shadow, indicating that the gold market is likely to continue its volatile trend [3] - Key support for gold is noted at $4182, with potential buying opportunities if prices retrace to this level, while resistance is observed below $4233 [3]