聚丙烯产业日报 2025-06-11 业淡季，需求持续偏弱。海外需求季节性下滑，难以缓解国内供需矛盾。近期国际油价走强，增强油制成 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 本支撑。短期PP2509预计震荡走势，技术上关注6900附近支撑与6990附近压力。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 6960 | 19 1月合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 6908 | 12 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 6903 | 14 9月合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 6960 | 19 | | | 成交量聚丙烯(PP)(日,手) | 224195 | -70833 持仓量聚丙烯(PP)(日,手) | 501412 | -10063 | | | 前20名持仓:买单量:聚丙烯(日,手) | 43 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - PP2509 declined and then rebounded, closing at 7,092 yuan/ton. In the supply side, last week's production decreased by 1.92% month-on-month to 734,100 tons. In the demand side, the average operating rate of PP downstream industries decreased by 0.2% month-on-month to 50.06%. In terms of inventory, last week's PP inventory decreased by 2.03% month-on-month to 819,600 tons, and the inventory is neutral. From April to May, the PP industry has concentrated maintenance. This week, the impact of shutdown devices such as Zhongsha Tianjin and Formosa Plastics Ningbo has expanded, and the production and capacity utilization rate are expected to continue the downward trend. Affected by tariffs, the demand for plastic weaving and BOPP is insufficient, and the number of order days continues to decline. The domestic real estate market policy stimulus continues, and the number of pipe order days has increased month-on-month. During the May Day holiday, some downstream enterprises take vacations and stop work, and polypropylene faces the pressure of inventory accumulation. In terms of cost, OPEC+ may increase production in June, the US tariff policy has not been adjusted, and the international oil price has recently declined. For PP2509, pay attention to the support around 7,030 and the pressure around 7,150 [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polypropylene was 7,092 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the closing price of the January contract was 7,028 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 7,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan; the closing price of the September contract was 7,092 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan. The trading volume of polypropylene (PP) was 226,916 lots, a decrease of 9,333 lots; the open interest was 401,428 lots, an increase of 4,289 lots. The long positions of the top 20 holders were 270,901 lots, an increase of 1,004 lots; the short positions were 285,654 lots, an increase of 1,359 lots; the net long positions were -14,753 lots, a decrease of 355 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 4,596 lots, a decrease of 73 lots [2]. Spot Market - The CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price of PP (fiber/injection molding) was 934 US dollars/ton; the CFR Far East intermediate price of PP (homopolymer injection molding) was 859 US dollars/ton; the CFR China price of propylene was 816 US dollars/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The CFR price of propane in the Far East was 585 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars; the FOB price of naphtha in Singapore was 62.71 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.41 US dollars; the CFR price of naphtha in Japan was 578 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.75 US dollars [2]. Industry Situation - The operating rate of polypropylene (PP) in petrochemical enterprises was 75.52%, a decrease of 2.55 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The average operating rate of polypropylene was 50.06%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points; the operating rate of plastic weaving was 45.3%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points; the operating rate of injection molding was 55.86%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points; the operating rate of BOPP was 61.65%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points; the operating rate of PP pipes was 37.07%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points; the operating rate of tape master rolls was 50.81%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points; the operating rate of PP non-woven fabrics was 37.98%, an increase of 0.25 percentage points; the operating rate of CPP was 50.25%, a decrease of 1.13 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polypropylene was 12.23%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 9.49%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 10.88%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 10.89%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From April 18th to 24th, China's polypropylene production was 734,100 tons, a decrease of 1.92% from the previous period. The average operating rate of PP downstream industries decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 50.06%. As of April 23rd, the total commercial inventory of polypropylene in China was 819,600 tons, a decrease of 19,300 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.30% [2].