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方正证券:25Q1聚氨酯企业业绩承压 MDI/TDI价格二季度有望修复
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-05-13 04:01
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that overseas polyurethane companies faced pressure on volume and price in Q1 2025, leading to a general decline in profits. However, MDI/TDI prices have stabilized and rebounded by the end of April, with supply-side adjustments and progress in US-China trade negotiations suggesting a potential recovery in Q2 2025 for the Asia-Pacific polyurethane business [1][2]. - Major companies reported revenue declines in Q1 2025: BASF and Covestro both saw a 1% decrease, Huntsman a 4% decrease, and Dow a 3% decrease. EBITDA also fell significantly, with BASF down 18%, Covestro down 50%, Huntsman down 11%, and Dow down 32%. The overall demand weakness and price pressures were the main reasons for the revenue decline [1]. - The North American polyurethane market has become increasingly reliant on imports, particularly MDI, with about 500,000 tons imported annually, 70% from China and 30% from Europe. The impact of tariffs and anti-dumping duties is expected to reduce direct exports to the US, shifting trade flows towards Asia-Pacific or Europe [2]. Group 2 - Companies are accelerating asset disposals to cut costs, with BASF proceeding with the divestment of its coatings business and closing a production line in Germany. Huntsman plans to close two downstream factories in Europe and one in Canada, while Dow is shutting down its chlor-alkali/ethylene asset in Schkopau and a silicone plant in the UK [3]. - Earnings guidance remains cautious, with BASF maintaining an EBITDA target of €8-8.4 billion for 2025, Covestro expecting €200-300 million for Q2 2025, Huntsman projecting $35-50 million for Q2 2025, and Dow reducing capital expenditures by $1-2.5 billion [3].