聚烯烃投产增量

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聚烯烃日报:投产增量预期,聚烯烃盘面弱势-20250903
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-03 06:30
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market is mainly in a narrow - range oscillation. The overall operating rate has increased due to the resumption of previously shut - down units and fewer planned shutdowns. New production capacity is continuously being released, leading to a significant increase in supply. There is pressure on the supply side as upstream inventory is transferred downstream, with a slight decrease in producers' inventory and an increase in mid - stream inventory. The cost - side support is weak, while the demand side is slowly rising but lacks new orders in the short term [3] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Figures related to the plastic futures main contract trend and the LL East China - main contract basis are presented, as well as those for the polypropylene futures main contract trend and the PP East China - main contract basis [9][12] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate is 78.7% (+0.0%), and PP operating rate is 80.2% (+2.0%). PE oil - based production profit is 202.8 yuan/ton (- 112.4), PP oil - based production profit is - 377.2 yuan/ton (- 112.4), and PDH - based PP production profit is - 76.1 yuan/ton (- 78.3) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Spread - Figures show the price differences between HD injection - LL East China, HD blow - molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt copolymer - drawn East China, and PP homopolymer injection - drawn East China [29][36][37] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit is - 260.1 yuan/ton (- 110.1), PP import profit is - 600.1 yuan/ton (- 50.1), and PP export profit is 32.4 US dollars/ton (+6.2) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 17.5% (+2.9%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 49.6% (- 0.3%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.3% (+0.3%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.4% (- 0.3%) [2] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Upstream inventory is transferred downstream, with a slight decrease in producers' inventory and an increase in mid - stream inventory, indicating certain pressure on the supply side [3] Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: 01 - 05 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: Long L - P [4]