Group 1 - The Indian government has officially canceled the Quality Control Order (QCO) for 14 types of petrochemical products, including polyethylene (PE) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC), to reduce compliance burdens on domestic manufacturers [1] - The cancellation of the BIS certification requirement for these products is deemed necessary for public interest, according to the Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers [1] - The QCOs were initially introduced between 2021 and 2024, requiring manufacturers and importers to obtain BIS certification to sell products in the Indian market, which has been a non-tariff barrier hindering domestic industry development [1] Group 2 - A report indicates that most QCOs target raw materials and intermediate products rather than finished goods, with several new quality standards not aligning with international benchmarks [2] - The National Transformation Committee's expert group has proposed the cancellation, suspension, or postponement of over 200 products' QCOs [2]

叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【塑料数据周报（PP&PE ）】 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-17 主要周度数据变动回顾 | LC国贸期货 | | --- | 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 L L DPE :现货价格持稳，盘面震荡偏弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | （1）本周，我国聚乙烯产量总计在67.37万吨，较上周增加1.98%。（2）中国聚乙烯生产企业产能利用率83.14%，较上周期增加了0.55个百分点。本周期 | 供给 | 中性 | 装置情况来看，周内惠州埃克森、齐鲁石化、中沙石化装置处于检修状态，存量检修多于周内重启，因此产能利用率环比上涨。 | | | （1）中国LLDPE/LDPE下游制品平均开工率较前期+1.64%。其中农膜整体开工率较前期+2.75%；PE包装膜开工率较前期+0.52%。（ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - PE shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The high supply may continue to suppress the upside space of the polyethylene market, and it will mainly maintain a volatile consolidation pattern in the short - term. PP still has supply - demand contradictions, with the cost support strengthening slightly but still having a loosening expectation, and the market will continue to show a wide - range volatile trend. The supply surplus pressure may suppress the upward rebound space [3]. - The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading; for inter - period trading, conduct a sell - near - buy - far spread for L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 at high prices; there is no recommendation for inter - variety trading [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Price and Basis - The closing price of the L main contract is 6,818 yuan/ton (+30), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 6,480 yuan/ton (+20). The LL spot price in North China is 6,800 yuan/ton (+0), the LL spot price in East China is 6,850 yuan/ton (+0), and the PP spot price in East China is 6,480 yuan/ton (+0). The LL basis in North China is - 18 yuan/ton (-30), the LL basis in East China is 32 yuan/ton (-30), and the PP basis in East China is 0 yuan/ton (-20) [1]. 3.1.2 Upstream Supply - The PE operating rate is 83.1% (+0.5%), and the PP operating rate is 79.6% (+1.8%) [1]. 3.1.3 Production Profit - The PE oil - based production profit is 288.4 yuan/ton (+187.2), the PP oil - based production profit is - 321.6 yuan/ton (+187.2), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 219.6 yuan/ton (-113.8) [1]. 3.1.4 Import and Export - The LL import profit is - 29.4 yuan/ton (+43.1), the PP import profit is - 185.3 yuan/ton (-19.7), and the PP export profit is - 3.3 US dollars/ton (+2.5) [2]. 3.1.5 Downstream Demand - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 50.0% (+0.0%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 50.4% (-0.4%), the PP downstream woven plastic operating rate is 44.2% (-0.2%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 62.6% (+0.2%) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 PE - Supply: The supply pressure is continuously high. Newly added maintenance of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical Line 1 and Zhongsha Petrochemical linear device, but the maintenance devices are restarting one after another, and the PE operating rate is continuously increasing. In addition, the newly added production capacity of Guangxi Petrochemical is gradually being released [3]. - Demand: The overall downstream operating rate of PE has decreased month - on - month. The increase in the agricultural film operating rate has slowed down, and the demand is expected to shrink after late November. The packaging film operating rate has decreased month - on - month, and the overall demand follow - up is still limited [3]. - Cost: The oil price has rebounded slightly after a decline, but the rebound space is limited due to supply - demand pressure, and the PE oil - based cost support is insufficient [3]. 3.2.2 PP - Supply: There is still an oversupply pattern. The 400,000 - ton new device of Guangxi Petrochemical has been put into trial production, some devices are under maintenance, and some temporary maintenance has alleviated the market supply pressure to a certain extent, but the improvement of the supply - side oversupply pattern is still limited [3]. - Demand: The overall downstream operating rate is gradually weakening, mainly replenishing inventory on a rigid basis at low prices. The demand pull of the e - commerce festival is less than that of the same period, and the demand support is relatively limited [3]. - Cost: The international oil price fluctuates widely, the external propane price rebounds slightly, and the PP cost support strengthens slightly but still has a loosening expectation [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The polyolefin market is characterized by an overall pattern of oscillation and consolidation. The PE market maintains an oscillation and consolidation pattern, while the PP market shows an oscillation and weakening trend in the short - term. The cost support has strengthened slightly, but the upward movement is still restricted by supply - demand factors [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,788 yuan/ton (+28), and that of the PP main contract is 6,460 yuan/ton (+31). The spot prices of LL in North China and East China are 6,800 yuan/ton (+0) and 6,850 yuan/ton (+0) respectively. The spot price of PP in East China is 6,480 yuan/ton (-20). The basis of LL in North China and East China is 12 yuan/ton (-28) and 62 yuan/ton (-28) respectively, and the basis of PP in East China is 20 yuan/ton (-51) [2] - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 82.6% (+1.7%), and the PP operating rate is 77.8% (+0.7%) [2] - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is 101.2 yuan/ton (-82.1), the PP oil - based production profit is - 488.8 yuan/ton (-82.1), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 105.8 yuan/ton (+1.9) [2] - **Imports and Exports**: The LL import profit is - 72.5 yuan/ton (+2.5), the PP import profit is - 165.6 yuan/ton (+2.4), and the PP export profit is - 5.7 US dollars/ton (-0.3) [2] - **Downstream Demand**: The operating rate of PE downstream agricultural film is 50.0% (+0.4%), the operating rate of PE downstream packaging film is 50.8% (-0.5%), the operating rate of PP downstream plastic weaving is 44.5% (+0.3%), and the operating rate of PP downstream BOPP film is 62.5% (+0.9%) [2] 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand persists. The supply pressure is large due to high operating rates, new capacity releases, and some device restarts. The downstream demand is limited, with the agricultural film's demand expected to shrink and the packaging film's operating rate declining. The cost support from oil prices is weak, and PE is expected to maintain an oscillation and consolidation pattern in the short - term [3] - **PP**: There are still supply - demand contradictions. The cost support has strengthened slightly, but the supply surplus pattern remains. The downstream demand has a slow recovery, and the demand support is limited. PP is expected to continue an oscillation and weakening pattern in the short - term, but the downward drive is also limited [4] 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach; the market may maintain a bottom - oscillation pattern in the short - term [5] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Consider reverse arbitrage when the L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 spreads are high [5] - **Inter - commodity Spread**: No relevant strategy provided [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Short - term L2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support around 6720 on the daily K - line. PE supply pressure is high, demand is weakening, and the valuation is difficult to repair under the background of low LLDPE oil - and coal - based profits [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) is 6788, up 28; 1 - 5 spread is - 76, up 5; trading volume (daily, lots) is 186004, down 5446; open interest (daily, lots) is 586919, up 2586; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of polyethylene (daily, lots) is - 93396, down 2692 [2] Spot Market - LLDPE(7042) average price in North China (daily, yuan/ton) is 6893.48, up 1.74; in East China is 7102.86, up 0.71; the basis is 105.48, down 26.26 [2] Upstream Situation - FOB: middle price: naphtha: Singapore region (daily, US dollars/barrel) is 62.26, down 0.57; CFR: middle price: naphtha: Japan region (daily, US dollars/ton) is 576.75, down 5.5; ethylene: CFR Southeast Asia: middle price (daily, US dollars/ton) is 731, unchanged; ethylene: CFR Northeast Asia: middle price (daily, US dollars/ton) is 741, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE operating rate (daily, %) is 82.59, up 1.72 [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film (weekly, %) is 50.78, down 0.52; of PE pipes (weekly, %) is 31.67, down 0.5; of PE agricultural film (weekly, %) is 49.96, up 0.43 [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene (daily, %) is 8.96, up 0.2; the 40 - day historical volatility is 8.47, up 0.12; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options of polyethylene (daily, %) is 10.46, down 1.35; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is also 10.46, down 1.35 [2] Industry News - From October 31 to November 6, PE weekly output increased by 2.67% to 66.07 tons, and capacity utilization increased by 1.72% to 82.59%. PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.51%, with agricultural film operating rate up 0.44% and packaging film operating rate down 0.52%. As of November 7, PE social inventory was 50.01 tons, down 1.86%; as of November 12, PE production enterprise inventory was 52.92 tons, up 7.96%. From November 1 to 7, the cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased by 0.83% to 7328 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 10.43 yuan/ton to - 370.43 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE increased by 0.57% to 6884 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 158.86 yuan/ton to 39 yuan/ton [2]

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-11-12 煤价回落明显，成本端受拖累 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6760元/吨（-42），PP主力合约收盘价为6429元/吨（-51），LL华北现货为6800 元/吨（+50），LL华东现货为6850元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6500元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为40元/吨（+92），LL 华东基差为90元/吨（+42）， PP华东基差为71元/吨（+51）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为82.6%（+1.7%），PP开工率为77.8%（+0.7%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为183.3元/吨（-100.9），PP油制生产利润为-406.7元/吨（-100.9），PDH制PP生产 利润为-107.7元/吨（-16.9）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-75.0元/吨（-67.4），PP进口利润为-168.0元/吨（+131.1），PP出口利润为-5.4美元/吨（-0.3）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为50.0%（+0.4%），PE下游包装膜开工率为50.8%（-0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.5%（+0.3%），PP下游BOPP膜 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - The PE market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation in the short term, and it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation pattern. The supply pressure continues to increase, while the demand support is insufficient. In the medium - and short - term, a bearish view is taken, and in the long - term, the supply pressure of non - standard PE products may suppress LLDPE prices [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply side: The pressure is continuously increasing. There are few subsequent device maintenance plans, and the start - up rate is expected to continue to rise. In the fourth quarter, new device startups are still concentrated, such as the upcoming startups of two sets of Guangxi Petrochemical's devices [1]. - Demand side: The support is insufficient. Although the agricultural film industry is in the traditional peak season, the overall start - up rate and order growth rate have slowed down. After mid - November, the growth space for demand will be limited, and other downstream industries of PE have insufficient new orders [1]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: Weak oscillation. The price range of L2601 is 6600 - 7000. The strategy is to short on rallies [10]. - **Basis, spread, and hedging arbitrage strategy recommendations**: No basis strategy; 1 - 5 reverse spread; short - term hedging arbitrage space is limited, and in the long - term, consider narrowing the L - P spread on the 05 contract [10]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, they can short plastic futures to lock in profits and sell call options to reduce costs [11]. - **Procurement management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy plastic futures to lock in procurement costs and sell put options to reduce costs [11]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: On Wednesday, affected by the news of gas restrictions on Iranian devices, the methanol futures market strengthened, and polyolefins briefly followed the upward trend [12]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch - The start - up situation of two sets of Guangxi Petrochemical's devices [12]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral trend and capital movement**: This week, the futures market oscillated downward. The open interest increased, and there were no obvious changes in the top five long and short positions on the order book. The net long positions of the top five profitable seats slightly increased [17]. - **Basis structure**: The spot situation in East China improved and prices stabilized, but the situations in North and South China were still weak. As of Friday, the basis in North China was - 32 yuan/ton (strengthened by 47 compared with last week), in East China was 138 yuan/ton (+107), and in South China was 248 yuan/ton (- 3) [20]. - **Spread structure**: The L1 - 5 spread shows a contango structure due to the relatively optimistic market expectation for the subsequent macro - situation and the limited start - up of LLDPE devices in the first half of next year [22]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - With the continuous weakness of PE prices, the production profits of all production lines are compressed. Currently, the coal - based production line with the best profit is also in a loss state. Since PE devices are not very sensitive to profit conditions, short - term losses usually do not lead to unexpected shutdowns, so PE lacks strong cost - side support in a downward market [26]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern of PE is difficult to change. On the supply side, although device maintenance has increased recently, the high inventory capacity and the upcoming start - up of multiple devices in the fourth quarter, as well as the expected increase in imports after October, will further increase the total supply of PE. On the demand side, although the production and sales of agricultural films are still good, the subsequent growth is limited, and the support from other downstream industries of PE will gradually weaken [31]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Its Deduction - The current PE start - up rate is 82.56% (+1.69%). Multiple devices such as Fushun Petrochemical and ExxonMobil restarted at the beginning of the month, and the device maintenance volume decreased. It is expected that the device maintenance volume will continue to decrease, and with the upcoming start - up of two sets of Guangxi Petrochemical's devices, the supply pressure of PE will remain high [38]. 3.5.3 Import - Export and Its Deduction - **Import**: The overseas market is in a loose pattern, and the continuous decline in PE prices has led to an influx of low - price goods into China. Therefore, PE imports are expected to increase in the fourth quarter [43]. - **Export**: Enterprises' enthusiasm for expanding export channels is high this year, and PE exports have increased even in the off - season, but the total volume is still small and has little impact on the PE supply - demand pattern [43]. 3.5.4 Demand - Side and Its Deduction - The current average start - up rate of PE downstream industries is 45.75% (- 0.52%). The agricultural film industry is still in the peak season, but the start - up rate and order growth rate have slowed down. As the year - end approaches, the growth space for demand is limited, and the willingness of downstream enterprises to stock up has weakened [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - For LLDPE, the short - term market is expected to be volatile with no obvious driving factors. Supply is neutral, demand is positive, inventory is negative, basis is neutral, profit is negative, valuation is negative, and macro - policy is negative [2]. - For PP, the short - term market is also expected to be volatile with no clear drivers. Supply is neutral, demand is positive, inventory is negative, basis is neutral, profit is positive, valuation is negative, and macro - policy is negative [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 LLDPE Analysis - **Supply**: This week, China's polyethylene production was 643,500 tons, a 0.72% decrease from last week. The capacity utilization rate was 80.87%, a 0.59 - percentage - point decrease. Some plants were under maintenance, increasing the maintenance loss [2]. - **Demand**: The average downstream product start - up rate of LLDPE/LDPE increased by 1.64%. The overall agricultural film start - up rate increased by 2.75%, and the PE packaging film start - up rate increased by 0.52%. In September, China's polyethylene imports were 1.0222 million tons, a 10.07% year - on - year decrease and a 7.58% month - on - month increase [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 416,000 tons, a 19.16% month - on - month decrease. The social sample warehouse inventory was 527,400 tons, a 3.30% month - on - month decrease and a 9.18% year - on - year decrease. The import cargo warehouse inventory also decreased [2]. - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around 309, and the futures price is at a discount [2]. - **Profit**: The costs of oil - based, coal - based, and ethane - based production increased, while the methanol - based cost decreased. The main reason for the increase in oil prices is the US sanctions on Russia and the decline in US commercial crude oil inventories [2]. - **Valuation**: The spot price and the absolute futures price are neutral, and the near - month contract is at a deep discount [2]. - **Macro - policy**: The macro - sentiment has faded, and trading has returned to the fundamentals, with the futures price showing a weak and volatile trend [2]. 3.2 PP Analysis - **Supply**: This week, China's polypropylene production was 789,200 tons, a 1.49% increase from last week and a 17.79% increase from the same period last year. The average capacity utilization rate was 77.06%, a 1.12% increase [3]. - **Demand**: The average downstream start - up rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 52.61%. The demand for medical products and cold - chain packaging increased, and the BOPP industry's start - up rate increased steadily. However, the plastic - weaving industry was affected by rainy weather [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese polypropylene producers was 595,100 tons, a 6.80% month - on - month decrease. The port sample inventory decreased by 2.25% month - on - month, and the trader sample inventory decreased by 7.80% month - on - month [3]. - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around - 20, and the futures price is around par [3]. - **Profit**: This week, the profits of coal - based, methanol - based, and externally - purchased propylene - based PP production improved, while the profits of oil - based and PDH - based PP production declined [3]. - **Valuation**: The spot price and the absolute futures price are neutral, and the near - month contract is at a discount [3]. - **Macro - policy**: The macro - sentiment has faded, and trading has returned to the fundamentals, with the futures price showing a weak and volatile trend [3]. 3.3 Main Weekly Data Changes - **Prices**: PP futures price decreased by 1.08%, PE futures price decreased by 1.00%, LLDPE CFR decreased by 1.22%, and ethylene CFR decreased by 3.85% [5]. - **Production and Start - up Rates**: PP production decreased by 5.22%, PE production decreased by 0.72%, PP start - up rate increased by 4.83%, and PE start - up rate decreased by 0.73% [5]. - **Inventory**: PP factory inventory decreased by 5.88%, PE social inventory increased by 0.10%, HDPE social inventory decreased by 3.16% [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current supply-demand pattern of PE is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, which is difficult to change. The supply pressure remains high due to high inventory capacity and the successive commissioning of multiple devices in the fourth quarter, while the demand support will gradually weaken at the end of the year [1][8][33]. - In the short - to medium - term, PE is expected to show a weak and volatile trend, and a bearish view is recommended. In the long - term, the supply pressure of LLDPE may ease next year, but the supply pressure of non - standard products may suppress its price [8]. - The macro environment has a significant impact on the PE market. The weakening of the macro atmosphere and the decline in crude oil prices have led to a general decline in chemical products, and attention should be paid to subsequent policy changes [1]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply - demand level: Supply pressure is high as the total output remains high despite a slight increase in recent maintenance volume, and new devices are to be commissioned. Demand support is weak as the incremental space for demand is limited at the end of the year, and downstream raw material inventory is high [1]. - Macro level: Crude oil prices have peaked and declined, and the result of the Sino - US trade negotiation is lower than market expectations, leading to a weakening of the macro atmosphere. The influence of macro emotions and cost fluctuations on the PE market has increased [1]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: Weak and volatile [10]. - Price range: L2601 is between 6800 - 7100 [10]. - Strategy suggestion: Short on rallies [10]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - Price range forecast for polyethylene: 6800 - 7200 [12]. - Hedging strategies: For inventory management, short plastic futures and sell call options; for procurement management, buy plastic futures and sell put options [12]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Not provided in the content. - Bearish information: The Sino - US meeting result is lower than market expectations, new devices are commissioned, and the restart of some devices increases supply [18]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - OPEC + meeting results on December crude oil production, the situation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and relevant policy suggestions after the Fourth Plenary Session [18]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend: The disk reached a peak on Tuesday and then declined this week [20]. - Capital movement: The open interest increased this week, with no significant changes in the top five long and short positions in the order book, a slight reduction in net short positions of the top five profitable seats, and a slight increase in net short positions of the main profitable seats [20]. - Basis structure: The spot price lacks support and follows the decline of the PE disk. As of Friday, the basis in North China was - 79 yuan/ton (weakened by 20 compared with last week), in East China was 31 yuan/ton (- 10), and in South China was 251 yuan/ton (+ 70) [22]. - Spread structure: The L1 - 5 spread shows a contango structure due to the relatively optimistic macro expectations and the limited commissioning of LLDPE devices in the first half of next year [24]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - The production profits of all production lines have been compressed, and the coal - based production line with the best profit is also in a loss state. PE devices are not sensitive to profit conditions, so there is a lack of strong cost support during the downward trend [28]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The pattern of strong supply and weak demand of PE is difficult to change. Supply pressure is high due to high inventory capacity, new device commissioning, and expected increase in imports after October. Demand support will gradually weaken as the incremental space for demand is limited at the end of the year [33]. 5.2 Supply - side and Deduction - The current PE operating rate is 80.86% (- 0.59%). Although the maintenance loss has increased, new device commissioning will still lead to high supply pressure [36]. 5.3 Import - Export and Deduction - Import: Overseas supply - demand is weak, and low - price goods are flowing into China, resulting in an increase in imports in the fourth quarter [41]. - Export: Enterprises are more active in expanding export channels, but the overall export volume is small and has little impact on the supply - demand pattern [41]. 5.4 Demand - side and Deduction - The average downstream operating rate of PE is 45.75% (- 0.38%). The agricultural film is in the peak season with increasing operating rate and orders, while the packaging film has insufficient new orders and a declining operating rate [49].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - For L and PP, the rating is neutral [4]. 2. Core View - The downstream demand for polyolefins is still slowly increasing, and both PE and PP are under pressure. The short - term trends of PE and PP are mainly influenced by the cost side. The supply of both is under pressure, and the demand is slowly recovering. The price of PE is in short - term shock consolidation, and the price of PP continues to be weak [2][3]. 3. Section Summaries Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 6,968 yuan/ton (-41), PP main contract at 6,651 yuan/ton (-34). LL North China spot was 6,950 yuan/ton (-10), LL East China spot 7,060 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot 6,580 yuan/ton (-30). LL North China basis was -18 yuan/ton (+31), LL East China basis 92 yuan/ton (+41), PP East China basis -71 yuan/ton (+4) [2]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率 was 80.9% (-0.6%), PP开工率 was 77.1% (+1.1%) [2]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 343.2 yuan/ton (-39.1), PP oil - based production profit was -346.8 yuan/ton (-39.1), PDH - based PP production profit was 45.6 yuan/ton (-8.9) [2]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit was 69.8 yuan/ton (+86.1), PP import profit was -294.7 yuan/ton (+0.7), PP export profit was -21.7 dollars/ton (-5.1) [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film开工率 was 49.5% (+2.4%), PE downstream packaging film开工率 was 51.3% (-1.3%), PP downstream plastic weaving开工率 was 44.2% (-0.2%), PP downstream BOPP film开工率 was 61.6% (+0.2%) [2]. Market Analysis - **PE**: OPEC+ has a production increase plan, the supply surplus expectation is strengthened, and the demand is expected to remain weak. The cost support of PE is weakened. The supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is still limited. The PE price is in short - term shock consolidation, and the upside space may be limited [3]. - **PP**: The oil - based cost support is weakened, but the supply - demand contradiction still exists. The supply pressure continues, and the demand is slowly recovering. The price of PP continues to be weak [3]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral for L and PP [4]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread [4]. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: None [4].