【L周报20250824】 旺季临近，是否迎来反弹窗口 日期: 2025-08-24 ZHESHANG FUTURES 【L周报20250824】 旺季临近，是否迎来反弹窗口 核心观点 | 产业链操作建议 | | | | | | | | | | 场外报价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 参与角色 | 行为导向 | 情得向 | 现货做口 | 策略推荐 | 章佳袋手册 | 要 | 套保比例(%) | 入场价格 | 相关场外产品 | | | 京厂 | 库存管理 | 库存偏高，担心PE价格下跌 | 多 | 针对待销售PE量在盘面买入看跌期权来 预防价格下跌风险 | I2601-P-7300 | 买入 | 50 | 140 | | | | | | | | 针对待销售PE量在盘面做空期货合约来 | 12601 | 素出 | 50 | 7380 | | | | | | | | 预防价格下跌风险 | | | | | | | | 煤化工生产 | | | | 针对待销售PE量在盘面做空期货合约来 预防价格下跌风险 | ...

长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者 徐阳 中国高效煤基新材料领军企业宝丰能源（600989.SH）交出最佳中报。 2025年上半年，宝丰能源主要产品产能大幅提升，实现营业收入228.20亿元，归母净利润57.18亿元，同比增幅分 别达35.05%、73.02%。 宝丰能源表示，2025年上半年公司营业收入增长主要由于聚烯烃产销量同比增加。上半年，公司主要产品聚烯烃 （含EVA）产量240.46万吨，同比增长96.64% 同时，宝丰能源积极回馈股东。公司2025年上半年拟每股分红0.28元，分红金额20.36亿元，占上半年归母净利润 的35.62%。加上此次，公司累计分红将达173.5亿元。 半年净利增超73% 宝丰能源主营业务为煤制烯烃，主要产品包括聚乙烯（PE）、聚丙烯（PP）、乙烯-醋酸乙烯共聚物（EVA）。 在五大通用合成树脂中，聚乙烯、聚丙烯的产销量分别位居第一位和第二位，占五大合成树脂总产量的60%以 上，是国民经济发展中最重要的基础原材料之一。 业绩方面，宝丰能源实现持续快速发展，2024年营业收入329.83亿元，创历史新高，同比增长13.21%；归母净利 润为63.38亿元，同比增长12.16%；扣 ...

中报显示，宝丰能源主营业务为煤制烯烃，主要产品包括聚乙烯（PE）、聚丙烯（PP）、乙烯-醋酸乙 烯共聚物（EVA）。2025年上半年，公司实现营业收入约228.2亿元，同比增长35.05%；对应实现归属 净利润约57.18亿元，同比增长73.02%；对应实现扣非后归属净利润约55.79亿元，同比增长58.67%。 交易行情显示，8月22日，宝丰能源收涨0.18%，收于16.27元/股，总市值1193亿元。 北京商报讯（记者 马换换 实习记者 李佳雪）8月22日，宝丰能源（600989）发布2025年半年度报告显 示，公司上半年实现归属净利润约57.18亿元，同比增长73.02%。 ...

证券研究报告 社会库存继续下降，期货大涨提振信心 ——煤炭行业周报（8月第4周） 行业评级：看好 2025年8月23日 分析师 樊金璐 邮箱 fanjinlu@stocke.com.cn 电话 13466717654 证书编号 S1230525030002 摘要 1.煤炭板块收涨，跑输沪深300指数：截止2025年8月22日，中信煤炭行业收涨1.23%，沪深300指数上涨4.18%，跑输沪深300指数2.95个百分点。全板块整周18只股价上涨，16只下跌， 3只持平。安源煤业涨幅最高，整周涨幅为17.26%。 2.重点煤矿周度数据：中国煤炭运销协会数据，2025年8月15日-2025年8月21日，重点监测企业煤炭日均销量为708万吨，周环比减少1.1%，年同比减少0.7%。其中，动力煤周日均销 量较上周减少0.5%，炼焦煤销量较上周增加1.3%，无烟煤销量较上周减少3.2%。截至2025年8月21日，重点监测企业煤炭库存总量（含港存）2671万吨，周环比增加2%，年同比减少 0.8%。今年以来，供给端，重点监测企业煤炭累计销量161312.8万吨，同比减少2.7%；其中动力煤、焦煤、无烟煤累计销量分别同比-3 ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-08-19 下游刚需偏弱，聚烯烃窄幅震荡 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7334元/吨（-17），PP主力合约收盘价为7048元/吨（-36），LL华北现货为7250 元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为7300元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7000元/吨（-40），LL华北基差为-84元/吨（+17），LL 华东基差为-34元/吨（+17）， PP华东基差为-48元/吨（-4）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为84.2%（+0.1%），PP开工率为77.9%（+0.6%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为451.6元/吨（+72.3），PP油制生产利润为-48.4元/吨（+72.3），PDH制PP生产利 润为190.0元/吨（+15.1）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-115.0元/吨（-5.3），PP进口利润为-461.4元/吨（+37.8），PP出口利润为30.1美元/吨（+0.7）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为13.8%（+0.8%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.1%（-0.2%），PP下游塑编开工率 为41.4%（+0.3%），PP下游BOPP膜开工 ...

2 025 年 8 月 8 日， 华南理工大学 吴嘉燕 ，中国海洋大学 赵建 ，陕西师范大学 王艳华 等在 Cell 子刊 Cell Reports Sustainability 上发表了题为： Microplastics and nanoplastics on Mt. Everest 的研究论文，陕西师范大学为该论文第一单位。 该研究提供了全面的证据，表明了 微塑料 （MP） 和 纳米塑料 （NP） 已渗入珠穆朗玛峰生态系统的各个组成部分，这些微塑料/纳米塑料 改变了土壤微生物群 落，并通过牲畜进入食物链，对高海拔生态系统产生了潜在威胁，该研究还分析了珠穆朗玛峰微塑料/纳米塑料的来源， 提供了珠穆朗玛峰有关 微塑料/纳米塑料 污染的宝贵初步数据，为高海拔生态系统的塑料污染提供了新见解。 撰文丨王聪 编辑丨王多鱼 排版丨水成文 微塑料 （MP） 和 纳米塑料 （NP） 作为新出现的环境污染物，已无处不在。在世界各地，甚 至海 底、高山等偏远地区，以及人体各个组织中，都发现了它们 的存在。然而，微塑料和纳米塑料在 珠穆朗玛峰 上的数量、分布情况以及对环境的影响，在很大程度上仍未得到探索。 微塑料 （ Micro ...

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/07/31 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/07/2 4 801 2468 2448 2505 2530 2485 2638 280 333 47 -20 -1237 2025/07/2 5 801 2488 2480 2540 2530 2485 2650 280 333 86 -25 -1237 2025/07/2 8 801 2397 2400 2540 2530 2490 2640 276 333 31 -17 -1237 2025/07/2 9 801 2392 2408 2520 2520 2490 2625 276 333 27 -18 -1237 2025/07/3 0 801 2410 2423 2520 2530 2495 2660 276 333 27 -25 -1237 日度变化 0 18 15 0 10 5 35 0 0 0 -7 0 观点 高进口开始兑现，累库开始发生，盘面低估值，等待淡季预期交 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View Recently, there are many restarted plants, resulting in a slight increase in supply. However, the demand side is more cautious, and the procurement intensity has slowed down. The demand of downstream factories remains in the off - season, with a low operating rate, and the restocking intensity may remain weak. Secondly, the capacity utilization rate has increased, and the supply has gradually returned. Inventory accumulation is expected next week [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Supply - PE production enterprise operating rate is 78.97%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.97%; PE weekly output is 61.51 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.96% [9]. 2. Demand - PE downstream weighted operating rate shows a seasonal decline, with a downstream weighted operating rate of 38.42%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23% [9]. 3. Inventory - This week, PE enterprise inventory is 50.29 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.99%; social inventory is 55.84 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.06% [9]. 4. Upstream and Cost - No specific summary data about upstream and cost are provided other than some related charts about ethylene production and downstream operating rate. 5. Price and Profit - This week, the PE spot price increased by 0.50% month - on - month to 7412 yuan/ton, and the PE futures price increased by 3.25% month - on - month to 7456 yuan/ton [9]. 6. Basis and Spread - The basis is - 43; the (9 - 1) spread is - 48 [9].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - Coal prices have rebounded significantly, with the central price level continuing to rise. Domestic power plants have increased daily coal consumption, leading to further price increases for both coking coal and thermal coal. The report emphasizes that the industry is supported by both policy and fundamental factors, maintaining a "Positive" rating for the coal sector [6][41]. Summary by Sections Coal Market Performance - The coal sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a weekly increase of 8% compared to a 1.69% rise in the index, resulting in a 6.31 percentage point outperformance. A total of 37 stocks in the sector saw price increases, with Lu'an Huanneng showing the highest weekly gain of 31.22% [2]. Key Data on Coal Sales and Inventory - The average daily coal sales for monitored enterprises from July 18 to July 24, 2025, were 7.14 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.4% but a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. The total coal inventory (including port storage) was 30.55 million tons, down 2.3% week-on-week but up 20.5% year-on-year [2][8]. Thermal Coal Industry Chain - As of July 25, 2025, the price index for thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 664 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.15%. The inventory at Qinhuangdao port was 5.85 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 70,000 tons [3]. Coking Coal Industry Chain - The main coking coal price at Jingtang Port was 1,650 CNY/ton, up 16.2% week-on-week. The inventory at Jingtang Port decreased by 11.16% week-on-week, while the total inventory at independent coking plants increased by 56.27% [4]. Coal Chemical Industry Chain - The price of Yanquan anthracite coal remained stable at 820 CNY/ton. The methanol market price in East China rose to 2,476.14 CNY/ton, an increase of 100.91 CNY/ton week-on-week [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies and coking coal companies undergoing turnaround. Key companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Huainan Mining for thermal coal, and Huai Bei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal for coking coal [6][41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For polyethylene (PE), the cost support from crude oil is insufficient, the supply pressure is increasing, but the expected demand peak season has a certain support for prices, with limited downside space. Short - term prices may fluctuate and there may be a slight upward rebound opportunity. Consider selling put options [7]. - For polypropylene (PP), the cost - side support is unstable, the supply has an incremental expectation, but the downstream demand orders have a seasonal repair expectation, which supports prices. The price downside space is limited, short - term prices may fluctuate, and there may be a slight upward rebound opportunity. Consider selling put options [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoint Summary Polyethylene (PE) - Cost: Crude oil supply and demand concerns coexist, price fluctuates, and cost support for plastic prices is insufficient [7]. - Supply: Current production is at a high level in recent years, with device restarts and no new planned maintenance, increasing supply pressure [7]. - Demand: Overall downstream PE开工率 declines, in the off - season currently, but there is an expected rebound in the peak season, and packaging film orders increase slightly [7]. - Import and Export: Import profits of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE decrease [7]. - Inventory: Social and production enterprise inventories increase, while trader inventories decrease but remain high [7]. - Gross Profit: Oil - and coal - based profits decline [7]. - Spread: Pay attention to the potential bottom - rebound of plastic 09 - 01 spread, the possible seasonal strengthening of PP09 - 01 spread, and the potential upward movement of plastic - PP09 contract spread [7]. Polypropylene (PP) - Cost: Crude oil price fluctuates, and PDH production cost may loosen, with insufficient cost support for PP prices [9]. - Supply: PP capacity utilization and production increase, with some restarted maintenance enterprises and new expansions concentrated at the end of the month [9]. - Demand: Downstream product 开工率 declines, raw material inventory increases slightly, finished product inventory pressure increases slightly, and plastic - woven orders are expected to rebound in the peak season [9]. - Import and Export: Import profit losses expand, and export profits increase slightly [9]. - Inventory: Overall PP inventory decreases slightly [9]. - Gross Profit: Oil -, coal -, and PDH - based PP profits decline, while methanol - and externally - sourced propylene - based PP profits recover [9]. - Spread: Similar to PE, pay attention to relevant spread trends [9]. 3.2 Next Week's Focus - July 21st: China's one - year loan prime rate, US June Conference Board leading index monthly rate [12]. - July 22nd: Press conference on China's foreign exchange receipts and payments in H1 2025, Fed Chairman Powell's speech [12]. - July 23rd: US API and EIA crude oil inventories, EIA Cushing crude oil inventory, EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory; NYMEX crude oil August futures contract expiration [12]. - July 24th: Eurozone ECB deposit facility rate, US initial jobless claims, US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI flash [13]. - July 25th: US June durable goods orders monthly rate [13]. - July 26th: US weekly oil rig count [13]. 3.3 Polyethylene Key Data Tracking - Price Review: Spot prices of PE decline slightly, and futures prices fluctuate downward. As of July 18th, HDPE film price is 7963 yuan/ton (- 25 yuan/ton), LDPE film price is 9462 yuan/ton (- 66 yuan/ton), LLDPE film price is 7411 yuan/ton (- 29 yuan/ton). LLDPE futures contract 09 closes at 7216 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton (- 1.03%) [15]. - Production: As of July 18th, PE production is 60.9 tons, up 0.32 tons from the previous period, and capacity utilization is 78.68%, down 0.01% [20]. - Maintenance Loss: As of July 18th, PE maintenance loss is 12.07 tons, down 0.75 tons. Next week, it is estimated to be 9.14 tons, down 2.93 tons, with no new planned shutdowns [25]. - Downstream 开工率: As of July 18th, overall downstream PE 开工率 is 38.51%, down 2.72%, still lower than the same period in previous years. Agricultural film 开工率 is down 0.18%, and packaging film 开工率 is up 0.5% [33]. - Downstream Raw Material Inventory: As of July 18th, agricultural film raw material inventory is 8.3 days (- 0.02 days), PE packaging film raw material inventory is 8.07 days (+ 0.07 days), and PE pipe raw material inventory is 7.1 days. Agricultural film orders are expected to rebound in the peak season [36]. - Inventory: As of July 18th, social sample warehouse inventory is 53.66 tons (+ 1.9 tons, + 3.68%), production enterprise inventory is 52.93 tons (+ 3.62 tons), two - oil enterprise inventory is 42.9 tons (+ 2.9 tons), and trader inventory is 5.77 tons (- 0.33 tons) [42]. - Import Profit: On July 18th, import profits of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE decline [47]. - Gross Profit: As of July 18th, oil - and coal - based PE profits decline [49]. - Futures Trading: As of July 18th, plastic futures trading volume decreases by 16822 to 318450 lots, open interest increases by 6799 to 578812 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts decreases by 9 to 5822 lots [53][55]. 3.4 Polypropylene Key Data Tracking - Price Review: Polypropylene spot prices decline slightly, and futures prices fluctuate downward. As of July 18th, the spot price range is 7101 - 7137 yuan/ton, and the PP futures contract 09 closes at 7013 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan/ton (- 0.79%) [58]. - Production: As of July 18th, domestic polypropylene production is 77.69 tons, up 0.68 tons (+ 0.88%) from the previous week and up 12.83 tons (+ 19.78%) from the same period last year. Capacity utilization is 77.29%, up 0.68% [63]. - Maintenance Loss: As of July 18th, polypropylene device weekly loss is 21.982 tons, down 5.53%. New expansions are concentrated at the end of July [68]. - Downstream 开工率: As of July 18th, the average downstream polypropylene 开工率 is 48.52%, down 0.12 percentage points. Plastic - woven 开工率 is down 0.6% to 41.4%, BOPP 开工率 is up 0.21% to 60.77%, and injection - molded product 开工率 is up 1.04 to 51.9% [71]. - Downstream Raw Material and Finished Product Inventory: As of July 18th, plastic - woven raw material inventory is 6.94 days (- 0.12 days), BOPP raw material inventory is 8.95 days (+ 0.04 days). Plastic - woven finished product inventory is 6.32 days (+ 0.16 days), BOPP factory inventory is 11.68 days (+ 0.69 days). Plastic - woven orders are expected to rebound [74]. - Inventory: As of July 18th, China's polypropylene commercial inventory is 78.12 tons, down 1.67 tons (- 2.09%), up 9.85% year - on - year [80]. - Import and Export Profit: As of July 18th, PP import profit is - 696 yuan/ton (loss expands by 13 yuan/ton), and export profit is 6.5 yuan/ton (+ 1.5 yuan/ton) [84]. - Gross Profit: As of July 18th, oil -, coal -, and PDH - based PP profits decline, while methanol - and externally - sourced propylene - based PP profits recover [87]. - Futures Trading: As of July 18th, PP futures trading volume increases by 15906 to 316654 lots, open interest increases by 27544 to 597581 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts decreases by 434 to 10083 lots [92][94][96]. 3.5 Spread Tracking - Pay attention to the potential bottom - rebound of plastic 09 - 01 spread, the possible seasonal strengthening of PP09 - 01 spread, and the potential upward movement of plastic - PP09 contract spread. As of July 18th, plastic 09 - 01 spread is - 27 yuan/ton (- 40 yuan/ton), PP09 - 01 spread is 3 (- 12), and 09 contract L - PP spread is 203 yuan/ton (- 19 yuan/ton) [99][101][105].