援引中国化工报消息：目前，全球塑料添加剂市场正处于上升轨道，但近年来 受经济和地缘政治挑战影响，市场也出现了波动。不过，标普全球商品洞察公司特 化品更新项目发布的最新《特种化学品行业概述》报告显示，2024 至 2029 年全球 塑料添加剂消费量预计将以 3.2%的复合年增长率继续增长。此轮塑料添加剂的消 费增长与汽车、航空、电子、医疗和建筑等塑料终端消费领域的产量增长密切相 关，同时又受到不断变化的政策法规的影响。 【逻辑分析】 国内 PE 产能利用率连续 4 周增产，报收 83.9%，同比增产+4.2%，涨幅扩 大；国内 PP 产能利用率连续 3 周增产，报收 77.7%，同比减产-0.1%，跌幅收 窄。10 月至今，波罗的海干散货运费指数下跌至 1939 点，波罗的海原油运费指 数下跌至 1090 点，两者之比报收 1.78，同比上涨+8.5%，连续 8 个月边际走 强，利多聚烯烃单边。 【交易策略】 L&PP 日报 【银河期货】塑料 PP 每日早盘观察（25-10-10） 【市场情况】 L 塑料相关：L2601 合约报收 7153 点，下跌-28 点或-0.39%。华北地区 LLDPE 报收在 705 ...

南华期货塑料产业周报 ——供应压力限制其上行空间 戴一帆（投资咨询资格证号：Z0015428） 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年9月28日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前PE自身的矛盾并不突出，总体供需格局持续偏弱：在供给端，多套装置集中在9月底重启，10月装置检 修量预计快速下滑，供给回升。并且，由于海外PE供需持续偏弱，外盘价格下滑，源自北美和中东的报盘明 显增加。因此，10-11月PE进口存在进口预期，供应压力进一步加大。在需求端，虽然当前PE正处于逐步进 入旺季的阶段，但是需求回升速度偏缓，下游订单跟进有限，企业补库意愿不强，同时PE库存，尤其是 LLDPE库存处于偏高水位，中上游出货存在压力，因此PE基差持续处于贴水状态。需求的弱导致PE支撑不 足，总体呈现震荡偏弱走势。 PE检修减损量（周）季节性 万吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 01/01 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 0 5 10 15 LLDPE外盘价格 source： wind,南华研究 美元/吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - L, PP are rated neutral; L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05 are recommended for reverse spreads; no recommendation for cross - variety trading [3] Core View - For PE, the supply side has seen a more - than - expected return due to the restart of many previously shut - down plants. The demand side has a slight improvement in pre - holiday stocking, but the demand follow - up is slow. The cost side is supported by rising international oil prices, yet the PE trend is still suppressed by the supply side [2] - For PP, the supply pressure remains high despite the decline in overall PP start - up rate. The demand side is in a seasonally improving period, but the recovery is slow. The cost side has a slight rebound in international oil prices. In the short term, PP demand improves but is limited by supply, and low profits restrict its downside [2] Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 7,142 yuan/ton (+37); PP main contract closed at 6,877 yuan/ton (+35). LL North China spot was 7,080 yuan/ton (+10), LL East China spot was 7,110 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot was 6,730 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was - 62 yuan/ton (-27), LL East China basis was - 32 yuan/ton (-37), PP East China basis was - 147 yuan/ton (-35) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE start - up rate was 80.4% (+2.3%), PP start - up rate was 74.9% (-1.9%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 177.5 yuan/ton (-139.0), PP oil - based production profit was - 442.5 yuan/ton (-139.0), PDH - based PP production profit was - 267.8 yuan/ton (-8.2) [1] - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit was - 148.9 yuan/ton (-57.6), PP import profit was - 528.9 yuan/ton (+2.4), PP export profit was 34.9 US dollars/ton (-0.3) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film start - up rate was 26.8% (+2.6%), PE downstream packaging film start - up rate was 51.8% (+0.5%), PP downstream plastic weaving start - up rate was 43.6% (+0.5%), PP downstream BOPP film start - up rate was 61.4% (-0.1%) [1] Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply side has more plants restarting than planned to shut down; demand side has a slight improvement in pre - holiday stocking but slow follow - up; cost side is supported by rising oil prices, yet the trend is suppressed by supply [2] - **PP**: Supply side has increased supply pressure despite more plants likely to restart; demand side is in a seasonally improving period but with slow recovery; cost side has a slight rebound in oil prices and strong propane. Short - term demand improves but is limited by supply, and low profits restrict downside [2] Strategy - **Single - sided**: L, PP are neutral [3] - **Inter - period**: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread [3] - **Cross - variety**: No recommendation [3]

于需预期给到油价一定压力，只是短期地缘局势仍有不确定性。LLDPE供需博弈，盘面持续下探至估值偏 免责声明 低水平，后市跌幅预计放缓并逐步止跌。 | | | 塑料产业日报 2025-09-23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7105 | -25 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7105 | -25 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7145 | -42 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7193 | -36 | | | 成交量(日,手) | 180643 | -30320 持仓量(日,手) | 589676 | 8837 | | | 9-1价差 | 81 | -11 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 429337 | 6635 | | | 期货前20名持仓:卖单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 488033 | 9642 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | -58 ...

Core Insights - Dow Chemical is considering delaying the restart of its Path2Zero integrated polyethylene project in Canada by 1 to 2 years [1] - The CEO emphasized that the timing of project launch is crucial for maximizing returns, and the current market conditions are not favorable for starting the project [1] - The project was initially planned for phase one production by the end of 2027 and phase two by 2029 [1] Industry Context - The petrochemical market has entered a downturn since Dow made its final investment decision for the Path2Zero project at the end of 2023 [1] - The announcement of import tariffs by the U.S. on nearly all countries has further extended the market's low period, leading economists to lower growth forecasts [1] - Despite the delay, the project remains a viable investment due to Canada's abundant low-cost ethane resources, providing a significant cost advantage for ethylene producers [2] - The project's location in Alberta will utilize existing infrastructure, which can enhance investment returns [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 01 - 05 reverse arbitrage; Cross - variety: Long L - P [3] Core Viewpoints - Macro support has strengthened, black - series commodities led the rise, driving a slight rebound in polyolefins. Some upstream petrochemical plants are under maintenance, with capacity utilization slightly decreasing. New capacity is expected to be put into production, and supply is expected to remain at a high level, with large inventory pressure in the upstream and mid - stream. Downstream demand is in the seasonal improvement stage of "Golden September", with the overall downstream factory operating rate rising slightly. The international oil price has rebounded, and the propane price has continued to rise, strengthening the cost - side support [2] Summary According to the Directory I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - It includes the trend of the plastic futures main contract, the basis between LL East China and the main contract, the trend of the polypropylene futures main contract, and the basis between PP East China and the main contract [8][11] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - It involves the production profit of LL (crude oil - based), PE operating rate, PE weekly output, PE maintenance loss, PP production profit (crude oil - based), PP production profit (PDH - based), PP operating rate, PP weekly output, PP maintenance loss, and PDH - based PP capacity utilization [18][20][21] III. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Spread - It includes the price spreads of HD injection - LL East China, HD blow - molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt copolymer - drawn East China, and PP homopolymer injection - drawn East China [27][34][35] IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - It covers the import profit of LL, the price difference between LL FOB US Gulf and China CFR, the price difference between LL Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, the price difference between LL Europe FD and China CFR, the import profit of PP, the export profit of PP (to Southeast Asia), the price difference between PP homopolymer injection FOB US Gulf and China CFR, the price difference between PP homopolymer injection Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, the price difference between PP homopolymer injection Northwest Europe FOB and China CFR, and the export profit of LL [41][45][52] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - It includes the operating rates of PE downstream agricultural film, packaging film, and winding film, and the operating rates of PP downstream woven bags, BOPP film, injection molding, as well as the production profits of PP downstream woven bags and BOPP film [61][62][72] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - It involves the inventories of PE oil - based enterprises, PE coal - chemical enterprises, PE traders, PE ports, PP oil - based enterprises, PP coal - chemical enterprises, PP traders, and PP ports [74][77][88]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market is mainly in a narrow - range oscillation. The overall operating rate has increased due to the resumption of previously shut - down units and fewer planned shutdowns. New production capacity is continuously being released, leading to a significant increase in supply. There is pressure on the supply side as upstream inventory is transferred downstream, with a slight decrease in producers' inventory and an increase in mid - stream inventory. The cost - side support is weak, while the demand side is slowly rising but lacks new orders in the short term [3] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Figures related to the plastic futures main contract trend and the LL East China - main contract basis are presented, as well as those for the polypropylene futures main contract trend and the PP East China - main contract basis [9][12] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate is 78.7% (+0.0%), and PP operating rate is 80.2% (+2.0%). PE oil - based production profit is 202.8 yuan/ton (- 112.4), PP oil - based production profit is - 377.2 yuan/ton (- 112.4), and PDH - based PP production profit is - 76.1 yuan/ton (- 78.3) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Spread - Figures show the price differences between HD injection - LL East China, HD blow - molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt copolymer - drawn East China, and PP homopolymer injection - drawn East China [29][36][37] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit is - 260.1 yuan/ton (- 110.1), PP import profit is - 600.1 yuan/ton (- 50.1), and PP export profit is 32.4 US dollars/ton (+6.2) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 17.5% (+2.9%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 49.6% (- 0.3%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.3% (+0.3%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.4% (- 0.3%) [2] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Upstream inventory is transferred downstream, with a slight decrease in producers' inventory and an increase in mid - stream inventory, indicating certain pressure on the supply side [3] Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: 01 - 05 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: Long L - P [4]

证券代码：600527 证券简称：江南高纤 编号：2025-045 江苏江南高纤股份有限公司 2025 年半年度主要经营数据的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带 责任。 江苏江南高纤股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）根据上海证券交易所《上 市公司行业信息披露指引第十三号——化工》、《关于做好主板上市公司 2025 年半年度报告披露工作的重要提醒》要求，现将 2025 年半年度经营数据披露如 下： | （一）主要产品价格变动情况 | | --- | | 产品 | 2025 月 | 年 | 1-6 | 2024 | 年 | 1-6 月 | 变动比例（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 销售均价（元/吨） | | | 销售均价（元/吨） | | | | | | 涤纶毛条 | | | 13,069.83 | | | 12,833.74 | | 1.84 | | 复合短纤维 | | | 10,498.98 | | | 10, ...

Group 1 - The company disclosed its 2025 semi-annual operating data in accordance with the Shanghai Stock Exchange's guidelines [1] - Main products include polyester staple fiber and composite short fibers, with production and sales figures provided [1] - The revenue from polyester staple fiber reached 53.83 million yuan, while composite short fibers generated 200.48 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The average selling price of polyester staple fiber increased by 1.84%, while composite short fibers saw a 1.07% increase [1] - The average procurement price of polypropylene decreased by 3.78%, and polyethylene decreased by 3.53% [1] - The price of polyester chips dropped significantly by 23.19%, and purified terephthalic acid (PTA) saw a decrease of 20.18% [1]

证券代码：600527 证券简称：江南高纤 编号：2025-045 江苏江南高纤股份有限公司 | 产品 | 2025 | 年 | 1-6 月 | 2024 | 年 | 1-6 月 | 变动比例（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 销售均价（元/吨） | | | 销售均价（元/吨） | | | | | 涤纶毛条 | | | 13,069.83 | | | 12,833.74 | 1.84 | | 复合短纤维 | | | 10,498.98 | | | 10,387.81 | 1.07 | （二）主要原材料价格变动情况 | 原材料名称 | 2025 年 1-6 月 | 2024 | 年 1-6 月 | 变动比例（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 采购均价（元/吨） | | 采购均价（元/吨） | | | 聚丙烯（PP） | 6,592.91 | | 6,841.33 | -3.78 | | 聚乙烯（PE） | 7,077.47 | | 7,336.33 | -3.53 | | 聚酯切片 ...