另从需求端看，虽然后期内需预计向好，但外需好转力度较为有限。 2025年国内PP市场呈现单边走势，重心一路下行。卓创资讯数据显示，以华东PP拉丝为例，8月迄今的 均价在7035元／吨，环比上月走低0.92%，创下年内新低。 分析来看，虽8月临近月底有宏观消息释放支撑，但供需基本面仍表现偏弱，尤其下游新单跟进未见好 转，叠加成品库存去化缓慢，导致下游入市采购积极性受阻，市场上行阻力加大，重心再度下滑。 展望后市，传统需求旺季"金九"将至，PP市场需求能否好转，以及市场拐点何时能够到来？ 从PP基本面上分析，后期供应端预计增加，令市场上行阻力加大。这主要体现在，一方面新增产能面 临投放。据卓创资讯调研，目前宁波大榭二期二线45万吨装置已产出合格品，同时二期一线45万吨装 置，计划9月中旬投放。叠加10月中旬广西石化40万吨二期装置计划释放产能，新增产能对后期PP市场 供应冲击预期较强。 另一方面，在既有装置检修方面，上半年PP检修装置集中，但目前来看，存量装置检修力度有所减 弱，新增的计划内检修也有减少的趋势。尤其多数企业在结束上半年大修计划后，下半年多平稳运行。 往后看，随着后续天气转冷，后期装置整体检修力度预 ...

2025年08月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：供需紧平衡，趋势偏强，正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：三房巷新装置投产，正套 | 2 | | MEG：趋势偏强 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：短期偏强，中期仍在区间震荡 | 6 | | 沥青：裂解续弱 | 8 | | LLDPE：短期偏强震荡 | 11 | | PP：短线反弹，中期震荡市 | 12 | | 烧碱：短期回调，关注近月仓单压力 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：短期震荡有支撑 | 18 | | 尿素：弱势运行 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：短期偏强，中期偏空 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG：进口成本存支撑，但供需缺乏明显改善 | 24 | | 丙烯：供需紧平衡，价格偏强整理 | 24 | | PVC：趋势仍有压力 | 27 | | 燃料油：夜盘高位震荡，短期强势延续 | 28 | | 低硫燃料油：近月合约持续上涨，外盘现货高低硫价差暂时企稳 | 28 | | 集运指数 ...

长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者 徐阳 中国高效煤基新材料领军企业宝丰能源（600989.SH）交出最佳中报。 2025年上半年，宝丰能源主要产品产能大幅提升，实现营业收入228.20亿元，归母净利润57.18亿元，同比增幅分 别达35.05%、73.02%。 宝丰能源表示，2025年上半年公司营业收入增长主要由于聚烯烃产销量同比增加。上半年，公司主要产品聚烯烃 （含EVA）产量240.46万吨，同比增长96.64% 同时，宝丰能源积极回馈股东。公司2025年上半年拟每股分红0.28元，分红金额20.36亿元，占上半年归母净利润 的35.62%。加上此次，公司累计分红将达173.5亿元。 半年净利增超73% 宝丰能源主营业务为煤制烯烃，主要产品包括聚乙烯（PE）、聚丙烯（PP）、乙烯-醋酸乙烯共聚物（EVA）。 在五大通用合成树脂中，聚乙烯、聚丙烯的产销量分别位居第一位和第二位，占五大合成树脂总产量的60%以 上，是国民经济发展中最重要的基础原材料之一。 业绩方面，宝丰能源实现持续快速发展，2024年营业收入329.83亿元，创历史新高，同比增长13.21%；归母净利 润为63.38亿元，同比增长12.16%；扣 ...

中报显示，宝丰能源主营业务为煤制烯烃，主要产品包括聚乙烯（PE）、聚丙烯（PP）、乙烯-醋酸乙 烯共聚物（EVA）。2025年上半年，公司实现营业收入约228.2亿元，同比增长35.05%；对应实现归属 净利润约57.18亿元，同比增长73.02%；对应实现扣非后归属净利润约55.79亿元，同比增长58.67%。 交易行情显示，8月22日，宝丰能源收涨0.18%，收于16.27元/股，总市值1193亿元。 北京商报讯（记者 马换换 实习记者 李佳雪）8月22日，宝丰能源（600989）发布2025年半年度报告显 示，公司上半年实现归属净利润约57.18亿元，同比增长73.02%。 ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-08-19 下游刚需偏弱，聚烯烃窄幅震荡 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7334元/吨（-17），PP主力合约收盘价为7048元/吨（-36），LL华北现货为7250 元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为7300元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7000元/吨（-40），LL华北基差为-84元/吨（+17），LL 华东基差为-34元/吨（+17）， PP华东基差为-48元/吨（-4）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为84.2%（+0.1%），PP开工率为77.9%（+0.6%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为451.6元/吨（+72.3），PP油制生产利润为-48.4元/吨（+72.3），PDH制PP生产利 润为190.0元/吨（+15.1）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-115.0元/吨（-5.3），PP进口利润为-461.4元/吨（+37.8），PP出口利润为30.1美元/吨（+0.7）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为13.8%（+0.8%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.1%（-0.2%），PP下游塑编开工率 为41.4%（+0.3%），PP下游BOPP膜开工 ...

Report Title - "PP Weekly Report 20250810: Lack of Contradiction, Prices Continue to Fluctuate" [1][2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Polypropylene is in a stage of fluctuating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. The contract is pp2509. The Middle East conflict has caused slight fluctuations in energy, but from the fundamental perspective, over - supply will further intensify. In 2025, the device will be in operation throughout the year, and there will be intensive production in June and July, increasing production capacity pressure. At the same time, the supply is higher than the same period in previous years, and the demand situation is "normal" [3]. - Pay attention to the cost - end crude oil price and the inventory changes in the middle and lower reaches [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The spot price is basically stable, and the basis has slightly strengthened. The East China basis has strengthened by 30 to about - 40 yuan/ton, the North China basis has strengthened by 50 to about - 100 yuan/ton, and the South China basis has strengthened by 10 to about 0 yuan/ton. The non - standard basis shows a similar trend [15]. - **Regional Spread**: The North China - East China spread has a slight rebound, and the South China - East China spread remains at a low level [25]. - **Related Product Spread**: The spreads between injection molding - drawing and low - melt copolymer - drawing have strengthened [26]. - **Disk Spread**: The 9 - 1 month spread has further dropped to around - 31. The L - PP3 spread remains at around 220. The previous PP - V09 spread has rebounded and then dropped significantly, and has recently recovered. The L - PP spread has limited changes, mainly due to less driving force. Overall, the supply pressure of PP is greater, while L has more maintenance and reduced imports, and both are in the off - season in terms of demand. The MTO profit remains at a low level [44]. 2. Domestic Production - End Profit and Supply - **Production Profit**: - Oil - based PP: This week, the oil price has continued to decline, with Brent oil falling to around 66 US dollars/barrel. The oil - based PP profit has recovered compared with the previous period [71]. - PDH: Overseas supply from the Middle East and the United States will further increase, and domestic refineries are back in production, increasing supply pressure. The domestic spot price is under pressure, and the PDH profit is not good [71]. - CTO and MTO: With the arrival of the coal - using peak season, the coal price has rebounded, but the CTO profit remains at a high level. The methanol price at the origin has increased due to tight supply and demand, and the inland MTO profit has deteriorated [71]. - **Domestic Output and Load**: This week, the PP output is 77.71 tons (+ 0.38 tons), and the operating rate is 77.31% (+ 0.37%). The PP supply loss is 28.03 tons, including 15.86 tons of maintenance loss and 7.16 tons of load - reduction loss. The maintenance loss of the device has decreased this week [6][98]. - **Production Allocation Ratio**: The production allocation ratio of PP upstream devices is provided. An increase in the drawing production allocation may indicate that the standard product is stronger than the non - standard product in the short term, but the medium - term supply pressure may increase [122]. 3. US Dollar Price and Import - Export Profit - **US Dollar Price and Spread**: - **External US Dollar Price**: The prices in Northwest Europe have fallen from high levels, the prices in the US Gulf have remained stable, and the overall prices in Asia have declined. The CFR Far East price has remained stable, but the prices in Southeast Asia and South Asia have fallen significantly. - **Internal - External Spread**: The spread between CFR China and the external market has rebounded [127]. - **Import - Export Profit**: The domestic market is in a volatile consolidation. The export offer of production enterprises has remained stable, and the export sentiment is positive, with actual transactions at a discounted price. On the import side, it is difficult to open the import arbitrage window [144]. 4. Downstream开工 - This week, the comprehensive downstream operating rate has increased by 0.5% month - on - month, and most operating rates are improving. The operating rates of plastic weaving, PP non - woven fabrics, and BOPF have remained stable. Recently, due to the hot weather and subsidies from food delivery platforms, the demand for milk tea cups, cold drink cups, and lunch boxes has increased, which has significantly supported the daily injection molding and transparent PP industries, leading to an increase in their operating rates. The previous maintenance devices of modified PP and CPP have resumed operation, and with the support of a small number of new orders, the industry operating rates have increased month - on - month. With the arrival of the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", the downstream operating rate will gradually increase [147]. 5. Inventory - Production enterprise inventory has increased by 2.23 tons to 2.23 tons. Among them, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina has increased by 1.44 tons, the coal - chemical inventory has increased by 0.56 tons, the PBI inventory has remained unchanged, and the local refinery inventory has increased by 0.24 tons. Downstream enterprises continue to make rigid purchases with average enthusiasm, while the supply has further increased, resulting in inventory accumulation at a high level [7][205]. - Trader inventory has increased by 1.4 tons, and the downstream transmission is not smooth; port inventory has decreased by 0.13 tons [7][205]. 6. Position, Trading Volume, and Warehouse Receipt Situation - **Position**: The position information of PP 09, 05, and 01 contracts is provided [220]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume information of PP 01, 09, and 05 contracts is provided [223][227][230]. - **Warehouse Receipt**: The number of registered PP warehouse receipts on August 8, 2025, is 17,191 [235][236].

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/07/31 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/07/2 4 801 2468 2448 2505 2530 2485 2638 280 333 47 -20 -1237 2025/07/2 5 801 2488 2480 2540 2530 2485 2650 280 333 86 -25 -1237 2025/07/2 8 801 2397 2400 2540 2530 2490 2640 276 333 31 -17 -1237 2025/07/2 9 801 2392 2408 2520 2520 2490 2625 276 333 27 -18 -1237 2025/07/3 0 801 2410 2423 2520 2530 2495 2660 276 333 27 -25 -1237 日度变化 0 18 15 0 10 5 35 0 0 0 -7 0 观点 高进口开始兑现，累库开始发生，盘面低估值，等待淡季预期交 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views Plastic - The plastic market maintains a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and a short - term correction is expected. The 2509 contract is expected to adjust in the range of 7200 - 7500, and it is recommended to short at high prices [3]. PP - The PP market has significant upward pressure in the medium - short term, and a short - term adjustment is expected. The 2509 contract is expected to adjust in the range of 6900 - 7200, and it is recommended to short at high prices [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Plastic Market Changes - On July 25, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 7216 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton from last week. LDPE, HDPE, and LLDPE prices all decreased. The LLDPE South China basis shrank, and the 6 - 9 month spread widened [3][6]. Fundamental Changes - Cost: WTI crude oil was at 65.07 dollars/barrel, down 0.96 dollars/barrel from last week; Brent crude oil was at 76.60 dollars/barrel, down 1.63 dollars/barrel. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1000 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [3][18]. - Profit: The profit of oil - based PE was - 473 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton from last week; the profit of coal - based PE was 1142 yuan/ton, down 158 yuan/ton [3][23]. - Supply: The production start - up rate of Chinese polyethylene was 78.97%, up 0.76 percentage points from last week, and the weekly output was 61.51 tons, up 0.99%. The maintenance loss this week was 11.35 tons, up 0.76 tons [3][26]. - Demand: The overall start - up rate of agricultural films was 12.63%, up 0.28%; the start - up rate of PE packaging films was 48.07%, up 0.11%; the start - up rate of PE pipes was 28.83%, unchanged [3][31]. - Inventory: The social inventory of plastic enterprises was 55.84 tons, up 2.18 tons from last week, a 4.06% increase [3][37]. Main Operating Logic - Macro factors and coal price speculation have boosted the PE price, but the expected new production capacity in the third quarter exerts pressure on the market. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the support from the demand side is weak. It is expected that the 2509 contract will correct in the short term [3]. PP Market Changes - On July 25, the closing price of polypropylene 2509 was 7221 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of PP shrank, and the 5 - 9 month spread widened [4][45]. Fundamental Changes - Cost: Similar to the plastic market, WTI and Brent crude oil prices decreased, and the anthracite price at the Yangtze River port increased [4][58]. - Profit: The profit of oil - based PP was - 374.61 yuan/ton, down 39.77 yuan/ton from last week; the profit of coal - based PP was 732.33 yuan/ton, down 95.33 yuan/ton [4][62]. - Supply: The start - up rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 76.96%, down 0.33 percentage points from last week. The weekly output of PP pellets was 77.36 tons, down 0.89%, and the weekly output of PP powder was 7.03 tons, up 4.02% [4][65]. - Demand: The average start - up rate of downstream industries was 48.37%, down 0.15%. The start - up rate of plastic weaving decreased, BOPP increased slightly, injection molding remained unchanged, and pipes decreased [4][71]. - Inventory: The domestic inventory of polypropylene was 58.06 tons, a 1.54% decrease; the inventory of the two major oil companies increased by 2.15%, the inventory of traders increased by 9.33%, and the port inventory increased by 6.50% [4][77]. Main Operating Logic - Macro sentiment has boosted the PP price, but the impact on supply is limited. The demand remains weak, and the market pressure is still large in the short term [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bullish [1] - L: Cautiously bullish [1] - PP: Cautiously bullish [1] - PVC: Cautiously bullish [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA/PR: Cautiously bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bullish [1] - Glass: Bullish [2] - Soda ash: Bullish [2] - Caustic soda: Cautiously bullish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Bullish [2] - Asphalt: Bearish [2] - Propylene: Cautiously bullish [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: The peak - season market is in the second half, and oil prices are oscillating weakly due to EU sanctions on Russia and OPEC+ expansion [1][3][4] - LPG: With stable cost, rising downstream开工率, it is short - term bullish, and previous short positions can take profit [1][6][7] - L: It is mainly following market sentiment for a short - term rebound, affected by anti - involution to a limited extent [1][10][11] - PP: The spot price has turned from falling to rising, with reduced inventory pressure and expected high export growth [1][13][14] - PVC: Driven by policy expectations and rising coal prices, it is short - term bullish despite weak fundamentals [1][17][18] - PX: Supply - demand is in tight balance, with high inventory and macro - policy support, suggesting holding long positions [1][20][21] - PTA/PR: Supply pressure is expected to increase, but short - term bullish due to anti - involution policies [1][23][24] - Ethylene glycol: Supply and demand are slightly loose, but with macro - policy support, it is recommended to go long at low levels [1][26][27] - Glass: Policy expectations boost the market, with inventory de - stocking and rising prices [2][29][31] - Soda ash: Despite high supply and inventory, it is following market sentiment and recommended to go long on pullbacks [2][32][33] - Caustic soda: Supply is approaching saturation, but demand from alumina is improving, and the market is bullish [2][34][35] - Methanol: Supply - demand has improved, and it is oscillating strongly due to macro - policies [2][36] - Urea: Supply is increasing, but with policy support and export expectations, it is recommended to go long lightly [2] - Asphalt: Cost is under pressure in the medium - long term, and it is recommended to go short lightly [2] - Propylene: Low valuation provides support, and it is recommended to go long at low levels [2] 3. Summaries by Variety Crude oil - Market situation: International oil prices fell overnight, with WTI down 0.27%, Brent down 0.35%, and SC up 1.63%. The current weak - expectation and strong - reality situation has support at the bottom, but OPEC+ expansion brings downward pressure [3][4] - Strategy: Lightly short and buy call options for protection, with SC in the range of [500 - 515] [1][5] LPG - Market situation: On July 20, the PG main contract closed at 4068 yuan/ton, up 0.15%. The cost is stable, downstream PDH开工率 is rising, and port inventory is accumulating [6][7] - Strategy: Take profit on previous short positions, with PG in the range of [3950 - 4050] [1][8] L - Market situation: The absolute price has low - valuation support, and it follows market sentiment for a short - term rebound. Social inventory has accumulated for 3 weeks, but the off - season for agricultural films is approaching an end [10][11] - Strategy: Try to go long on short - term pullbacks, with L in the range of [7200 - 7400] [1][12] PP - Market situation: The spot price has rebounded, with inventory de - stocking and increased unexpected maintenance. 1 - 6 months' exports increased by 21% year - on - year [13][14] - Strategy: Try to go long on short - term pullbacks, with PP in the range of [7000 - 7200] [1][15] PVC - Market situation: Driven by policy expectations and rising coal prices, the market is bullish in the short term, but inventory is accumulating, and the fundamental weakness limits the rebound space [17][18] - Strategy: Try to go long on short - term pullbacks, with V in the range of [5100 - 5300] [1][19] PX - Market situation: Supply - demand is in tight balance, inventory is high, and macro - policies are favorable. The PXN spread is not low, and the basis is narrowing [20][21] - Strategy: Hold existing long positions and consider adding long positions on pullbacks, with PX in the range of [6820 - 6910] [1][22] PTA/PR - Market situation: Supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand is weak. However, it is short - term bullish due to anti - involution policies [23][24] - Strategy: Add long positions on pullbacks, with TA in the range of [4740 - 4810] [1][25] Ethylene glycol - Market situation: Supply and demand are slightly loose, but low inventory and macro - policies support the price. Import and arrival are low [26][27] - Strategy: Try to go long at low levels, with EG in the range of [4405 - 4450] [1][28] Glass - Market situation: Policy expectations boost the market, inventory has been de - stocking for 4 weeks, and the spot price has increased [29][31] - Strategy: Go long based on the 5 - day moving average, with FG in the range of [1160 - 1200] [2][31] Soda ash - Market situation: High supply and inventory, but following market sentiment. The inventory has reached a new high, and the supply - demand surplus remains [32][33] - Strategy: Go long on pullbacks, with SA in the range of [1290 - 1350] [2] Caustic soda - Market situation: Supply is approaching saturation, but demand from alumina is improving, and the market is bullish [34][35] - Strategy: Go long cautiously based on the 10 - day moving average, with SH in the range of [2560 - 2620] [2] Methanol - Market situation: Supply - demand has improved, and it is oscillating strongly due to macro - policies [36] - Strategy: Try to go long on pullbacks, with MA in the range of [2385 - 2435] [2] Urea - Market situation: Supply is increasing, but with policy support and export expectations [2] - Strategy: Try to go long lightly, with UR in the range of [1800 - 1835] [2] Asphalt - Market situation: Cost is under pressure in the medium - long term, and supply and demand are both increasing, but inventory is accumulating [2] - Strategy: Go short lightly, with BU in the range of [3580 - 3680] [2] Propylene - Market situation: Low valuation provides support, and it is recommended to go long at low levels [2] - Strategy: Go long unilaterally at low levels and consider shorting the 1 - 2 month spread or PP processing fees, with a focus on the range of [6250 - 6600] [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For polyethylene (PE), the cost support from crude oil is insufficient, the supply pressure is increasing, but the expected demand peak season has a certain support for prices, with limited downside space. Short - term prices may fluctuate and there may be a slight upward rebound opportunity. Consider selling put options [7]. - For polypropylene (PP), the cost - side support is unstable, the supply has an incremental expectation, but the downstream demand orders have a seasonal repair expectation, which supports prices. The price downside space is limited, short - term prices may fluctuate, and there may be a slight upward rebound opportunity. Consider selling put options [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoint Summary Polyethylene (PE) - Cost: Crude oil supply and demand concerns coexist, price fluctuates, and cost support for plastic prices is insufficient [7]. - Supply: Current production is at a high level in recent years, with device restarts and no new planned maintenance, increasing supply pressure [7]. - Demand: Overall downstream PE开工率 declines, in the off - season currently, but there is an expected rebound in the peak season, and packaging film orders increase slightly [7]. - Import and Export: Import profits of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE decrease [7]. - Inventory: Social and production enterprise inventories increase, while trader inventories decrease but remain high [7]. - Gross Profit: Oil - and coal - based profits decline [7]. - Spread: Pay attention to the potential bottom - rebound of plastic 09 - 01 spread, the possible seasonal strengthening of PP09 - 01 spread, and the potential upward movement of plastic - PP09 contract spread [7]. Polypropylene (PP) - Cost: Crude oil price fluctuates, and PDH production cost may loosen, with insufficient cost support for PP prices [9]. - Supply: PP capacity utilization and production increase, with some restarted maintenance enterprises and new expansions concentrated at the end of the month [9]. - Demand: Downstream product 开工率 declines, raw material inventory increases slightly, finished product inventory pressure increases slightly, and plastic - woven orders are expected to rebound in the peak season [9]. - Import and Export: Import profit losses expand, and export profits increase slightly [9]. - Inventory: Overall PP inventory decreases slightly [9]. - Gross Profit: Oil -, coal -, and PDH - based PP profits decline, while methanol - and externally - sourced propylene - based PP profits recover [9]. - Spread: Similar to PE, pay attention to relevant spread trends [9]. 3.2 Next Week's Focus - July 21st: China's one - year loan prime rate, US June Conference Board leading index monthly rate [12]. - July 22nd: Press conference on China's foreign exchange receipts and payments in H1 2025, Fed Chairman Powell's speech [12]. - July 23rd: US API and EIA crude oil inventories, EIA Cushing crude oil inventory, EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory; NYMEX crude oil August futures contract expiration [12]. - July 24th: Eurozone ECB deposit facility rate, US initial jobless claims, US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI flash [13]. - July 25th: US June durable goods orders monthly rate [13]. - July 26th: US weekly oil rig count [13]. 3.3 Polyethylene Key Data Tracking - Price Review: Spot prices of PE decline slightly, and futures prices fluctuate downward. As of July 18th, HDPE film price is 7963 yuan/ton (- 25 yuan/ton), LDPE film price is 9462 yuan/ton (- 66 yuan/ton), LLDPE film price is 7411 yuan/ton (- 29 yuan/ton). LLDPE futures contract 09 closes at 7216 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton (- 1.03%) [15]. - Production: As of July 18th, PE production is 60.9 tons, up 0.32 tons from the previous period, and capacity utilization is 78.68%, down 0.01% [20]. - Maintenance Loss: As of July 18th, PE maintenance loss is 12.07 tons, down 0.75 tons. Next week, it is estimated to be 9.14 tons, down 2.93 tons, with no new planned shutdowns [25]. - Downstream 开工率: As of July 18th, overall downstream PE 开工率 is 38.51%, down 2.72%, still lower than the same period in previous years. Agricultural film 开工率 is down 0.18%, and packaging film 开工率 is up 0.5% [33]. - Downstream Raw Material Inventory: As of July 18th, agricultural film raw material inventory is 8.3 days (- 0.02 days), PE packaging film raw material inventory is 8.07 days (+ 0.07 days), and PE pipe raw material inventory is 7.1 days. Agricultural film orders are expected to rebound in the peak season [36]. - Inventory: As of July 18th, social sample warehouse inventory is 53.66 tons (+ 1.9 tons, + 3.68%), production enterprise inventory is 52.93 tons (+ 3.62 tons), two - oil enterprise inventory is 42.9 tons (+ 2.9 tons), and trader inventory is 5.77 tons (- 0.33 tons) [42]. - Import Profit: On July 18th, import profits of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE decline [47]. - Gross Profit: As of July 18th, oil - and coal - based PE profits decline [49]. - Futures Trading: As of July 18th, plastic futures trading volume decreases by 16822 to 318450 lots, open interest increases by 6799 to 578812 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts decreases by 9 to 5822 lots [53][55]. 3.4 Polypropylene Key Data Tracking - Price Review: Polypropylene spot prices decline slightly, and futures prices fluctuate downward. As of July 18th, the spot price range is 7101 - 7137 yuan/ton, and the PP futures contract 09 closes at 7013 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan/ton (- 0.79%) [58]. - Production: As of July 18th, domestic polypropylene production is 77.69 tons, up 0.68 tons (+ 0.88%) from the previous week and up 12.83 tons (+ 19.78%) from the same period last year. Capacity utilization is 77.29%, up 0.68% [63]. - Maintenance Loss: As of July 18th, polypropylene device weekly loss is 21.982 tons, down 5.53%. New expansions are concentrated at the end of July [68]. - Downstream 开工率: As of July 18th, the average downstream polypropylene 开工率 is 48.52%, down 0.12 percentage points. Plastic - woven 开工率 is down 0.6% to 41.4%, BOPP 开工率 is up 0.21% to 60.77%, and injection - molded product 开工率 is up 1.04 to 51.9% [71]. - Downstream Raw Material and Finished Product Inventory: As of July 18th, plastic - woven raw material inventory is 6.94 days (- 0.12 days), BOPP raw material inventory is 8.95 days (+ 0.04 days). Plastic - woven finished product inventory is 6.32 days (+ 0.16 days), BOPP factory inventory is 11.68 days (+ 0.69 days). Plastic - woven orders are expected to rebound [74]. - Inventory: As of July 18th, China's polypropylene commercial inventory is 78.12 tons, down 1.67 tons (- 2.09%), up 9.85% year - on - year [80]. - Import and Export Profit: As of July 18th, PP import profit is - 696 yuan/ton (loss expands by 13 yuan/ton), and export profit is 6.5 yuan/ton (+ 1.5 yuan/ton) [84]. - Gross Profit: As of July 18th, oil -, coal -, and PDH - based PP profits decline, while methanol - and externally - sourced propylene - based PP profits recover [87]. - Futures Trading: As of July 18th, PP futures trading volume increases by 15906 to 316654 lots, open interest increases by 27544 to 597581 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts decreases by 434 to 10083 lots [92][94][96]. 3.5 Spread Tracking - Pay attention to the potential bottom - rebound of plastic 09 - 01 spread, the possible seasonal strengthening of PP09 - 01 spread, and the potential upward movement of plastic - PP09 contract spread. As of July 18th, plastic 09 - 01 spread is - 27 yuan/ton (- 40 yuan/ton), PP09 - 01 spread is 3 (- 12), and 09 contract L - PP spread is 203 yuan/ton (- 19 yuan/ton) [99][101][105].