援引中国化工报消息：目前，全球塑料添加剂市场正处于上升轨道，但近年来 受经济和地缘政治挑战影响，市场也出现了波动。不过，标普全球商品洞察公司特 化品更新项目发布的最新《特种化学品行业概述》报告显示，2024 至 2029 年全球 塑料添加剂消费量预计将以 3.2%的复合年增长率继续增长。此轮塑料添加剂的消 费增长与汽车、航空、电子、医疗和建筑等塑料终端消费领域的产量增长密切相 关，同时又受到不断变化的政策法规的影响。 【逻辑分析】 国内 PE 产能利用率连续 4 周增产，报收 83.9%，同比增产+4.2%，涨幅扩 大；国内 PP 产能利用率连续 3 周增产，报收 77.7%，同比减产-0.1%，跌幅收 窄。10 月至今，波罗的海干散货运费指数下跌至 1939 点，波罗的海原油运费指 数下跌至 1090 点，两者之比报收 1.78，同比上涨+8.5%，连续 8 个月边际走 强，利多聚烯烃单边。 【交易策略】 L&PP 日报 【银河期货】塑料 PP 每日早盘观察（25-10-10） 【市场情况】 L 塑料相关：L2601 合约报收 7153 点，下跌-28 点或-0.39%。华北地区 LLDPE 报收在 705 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The decrease in net imports of domestic polyethylene and the difference between polyethylene and polypropylene imports for three consecutive months are favorable for the L - PP spread, while the narrowing increase in global stock market capitalization is unfavorable for polyolefin single - side trading [1]. - The increase in Brent crude oil and domestic PE production has a negative impact on the L and L - PP spread respectively [5]. - The increase in the number of PP futures registered warehouse receipts and the recovery of the US manufacturing PMI are favorable for L single - side trading [6]. - Downstream demand is in the peak season, but there are new capacity release expectations for both PE and PP. Considering the rising oil price at the near - end cost, the short - term price fluctuates, and the medium - term idea is to go short on rallies [8]. Summary Based on Related Catalogs Market Situation - **25 - 10 - 09**: L2601 contract closed at 7153 points, down 28 points or 0.39%. PP2601 contract closed at 6852 points, down 51 points or 0.74%. Different regions have different price ranges for LLDPE and PP [1]. - **25 - 09 - 30**: L2601 contract closed at 7161 points, down 20 points or 0.28%. PP2601 contract closed at 6878 points, down 25 points or 0.36%. The price ranges in different regions are similar to the previous report [4]. - **25 - 09 - 29**: L2601 contract closed at 7197 points, up 38 points or 0.53%. PP2601 contract closed at 6916 points, up 23 points or 0.33%. Different regions have corresponding price ranges [6]. - **25 - 09 - 19**: In the plastic spot market, prices in different regions showed different degrees of decline or stability. In the PP spot market, prices in different regions were either weak or stable [8]. Important Information - **25 - 10 - 09**: The US federal government shut down due to the breakdown of the appropriation negotiation between the Trump administration and Congress, with an estimated weekly economic loss of about $15 billion [1]. - **25 - 09 - 30**: Seven departments issued the "Work Plan for Steady Growth of the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming for an average annual increase of over 5% in industry added value and promoting high - end, green, and intelligent transformation [4]. - **25 - 09 - 29**: During the "Quality Month" in September 2025, the petroleum and chemical industry carried out quality improvement work, and many enterprises strengthened full - process quality control [6]. - **25 - 09 - 19**: The PE and PP maintenance ratios increased by 3.2 and 1.5 percentage points respectively compared to the previous period [8]. Logical Analysis - **25 - 10 - 09**: In August, the net import of domestic polyethylene decreased, and the difference between polyethylene and polypropylene imports decreased for three consecutive months, which is favorable for the L - PP spread. The narrowing increase in global stock market capitalization in July is unfavorable for polyolefin single - side trading [1]. - **25 - 09 - 30**: Since September, the increase in Brent crude oil is unfavorable for L, and the increase in domestic PE production in August is unfavorable for the L - PP spread [5]. - **25 - 09 - 29**: As of last week, the number of L and PP futures registered warehouse receipts changed, and the recovery of the US manufacturing PMI in August is favorable for L single - side trading [6]. - **25 - 09 - 19**: The downstream demand is in the peak season, but the supply side's maintenance is still at a high level, and there are new capacity release expectations for both PE and PP. Considering the rising oil price at the near - end cost, the short - term price fluctuates, and the medium - term idea is to go short on rallies [8]. Trading Strategies - **25 - 10 - 09**: Hold long positions in the L main 01 contract and set a stop - loss at the low on the 26th; wait and see for the PP main 01 contract. Consider intervening in the L2601 - PP2601 spread and set a stop - loss at the low on the 26th. Wait and see for options [2]. - **25 - 09 - 30**: Control the open - position inventory. Hold long positions in the L main 01 contract and set a stop - loss at the low last Friday; wait and see for the PP main 01 contract and pay attention to the pressure at the high on Monday. Wait and see for spreads and options [5]. - **25 - 09 - 29**: Try to go long on the L and PP main 01 contracts at an appropriate time and set a stop - loss at the low last Friday. Wait and see for spreads and options [7]. - **25 - 09 - 19**: Due to the rising oil price at the near - end cost, the short - term price of plastic and PP fluctuates, and the medium - term idea is to go short on rallies. Wait and see for spreads and options [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The petrochemical and chemical industry aims for an average annual increase of over 5% in added - value from 2025 - 2026, focusing on high - end, green, and intelligent transformation. Policy support in finance, elements, etc., is provided to promote quality and quantity growth [1]. - Brent crude oil has been rising since September 2025 but is down 7.5% year - on - year, which is negative for L. In August, domestic PE production increased for two consecutive months to 2.827 million tons, up 16.4% year - on - year, negatively affecting the L - PP spread [2]. - The US manufacturing PMI in August 2025 rose to 48.7 points, rising for three consecutive months, which is positive for L in the single - side trading [4]. - In September 2025, the petrochemical industry promoted quality improvement during the "Quality Month". Enterprises strengthened full - process quality control through digital and intelligent means [4]. - The downstream demand is in the peak season with a slight increase in downstream operation rates. However, the 01 contracts of both L and PP have new production capacity release expectations. Near - term cost - side oil price increases lead to short - term price fluctuations, and a mid - term short - selling strategy is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Situation - **September 30, 2025**: The L2601 contract closed at 7161 points, down 20 points or 0.28%. LLDPE prices in North China were 7100 - 7170 yuan/ton, 7160 - 7370 yuan/ton in East China, and 7230 - 7600 yuan/ton in South China. The PP2601 contract closed at 6878 points, down 25 points or 0.36%. PP prices in North China were 6700 - 6850 yuan/ton, 6750 - 6850 yuan/ton in East China, and 6700 - 6830 yuan/ton in South China [1]. - **September 29, 2025**: The L2601 contract closed at 7197 points, up 38 points or 0.53%. LLDPE prices in North China were 7120 - 7150 yuan/ton, 7180 - 7370 yuan/ton in East China, and 7230 - 7600 yuan/ton in South China. The PP2601 contract closed at 6916 points, up 23 points or 0.33%. PP prices in North China were 6700 - 6850 yuan/ton, 6750 - 6850 yuan/ton in East China, and 6700 - 6850 yuan/ton in South China [4]. - **September 19, 2025**: In the plastic spot market, LLDPE prices in North China were 7060 - 7400 yuan/ton with some drops; in East China, they were 7150 - 7600 yuan/ton with partial price changes; in South China, they were 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton with a slight decline. In the PP spot market, prices in North China were 6670 - 6780 yuan/ton with a decline; in East China, they were 6700 - 6800 yuan/ton with a decline; in South China, they were 6650 - 6830 yuan/ton with no change [6]. Important Information - **September 30, 2025**: Seven departments issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming for an average annual increase of over 5% in added - value, promoting high - end, green, and intelligent transformation, and providing policy support [1]. - **September 29, 2025**: During the "Quality Month" in September 2025, the petrochemical industry promoted quality improvement. Enterprises such as CNOOC, China National Chemical Engineering, and PetroChina strengthened full - process quality control [4]. - **September 19, 2025**: On the previous day, the PE maintenance ratio was 16.9%, up 3.2 percentage points, and the PP maintenance ratio was 19.3%, up 1.5 percentage points [6]. Logical Analysis - Brent crude oil rising since September 2025 but being down 7.5% year - on - year is negative for L. The increase in domestic PE production in August is negative for the L - PP spread [2]. - As of the previous week, there were no new registered L and PP futures warehouse receipts. The number of L futures registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 12,700 lots, and the number of PP futures registered warehouse receipts decreased by 745 lots, with an inventory accumulation of 3.5% to 14,100 tons. The rise in the US manufacturing PMI in August is positive for L in single - side trading [4]. - The downstream demand is in the peak season, but the 01 contracts of L and PP have new production capacity release expectations. The near - term increase in oil prices leads to short - term price fluctuations, and a mid - term short - selling strategy is recommended [6]. Trading Strategies - **September 30, 2025**: Due to the approaching holiday and no night trading, control the open inventory. Hold long positions in the L main 01 contract and set a stop - loss at last Friday's low; wait and see for the PP main 01 contract and focus on the pressure at Monday's high. Wait and see for both arbitrage and options [2]. - **September 29, 2025**: Try to go long in the L main 01 contract and set a stop - loss at last Friday's low; try to go long in the PP main 01 contract and set a stop - loss at last Friday's low. Wait and see for both arbitrage and options [5]. - **September 19, 2025**: Due to the near - term increase in oil prices, plastic and PP prices fluctuate in the short term, and a mid - term short - selling strategy is recommended. Wait and see for both arbitrage and options [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Since the listing of propylene on July 22, its price has been oscillating downward, affected by the "Anti-Involution" policy and device maintenance. In Q4, key aspects to focus on include the industrial chain's commissioning progress, the impact of PDH profit on operation, the PP market's performance, the influence of the "Anti-Involution" policy, and potential delivery issues [1]. - The Q4 price range of propylene is estimated to be between 6,000 - 6,700 yuan/ton. Recommended strategies are range trading for the single - side, backwardation for the inter - month, and range trading for the PP - PL spread. Also, consider buying MA and shorting PL based on Iran's gas restrictions [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Chapter 2: Market Review - Since July 22, the main contract price of propylene has oscillated downward from a high of 6,694 yuan/ton to a low of 6,354 yuan/ton, influenced by the "Anti - Involution" policy and device fluctuations [2]. - The "Anti - Involution" policy, which involves assessing old petrochemical devices, mainly affects market expectations and sentiment, increasing price volatility [3]. - Device fluctuations in the Shandong market, such as Zhenhua's device malfunctions and adjustments by Jineng and Yulong based on the propylene - polypropylene spread, can cause significant price changes [3]. - The propylene basis has been expanding. The spot market is more sensitive to supply - demand changes, while the 01 contract is under pressure due to potential delivery issues and the influence of the PP market [5]. - The 01 - 02 month spread of propylene has been oscillating in the range of - 100 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, with a tendency towards backwardation due to the 01 contract being a mandatory delivery month [7]. - The propylene - polypropylene spread showed a V - shaped pattern in Q3, currently at a yearly low [9]. Chapter 3: Core Focus Points 3.1 Focus on the Industrial Chain Commissioning Rhythm - From January to September, 808 million tons of propylene and 565 million tons of polypropylene (415 million tons of pellets and 150 million tons of powder) were commissioned, mostly as supporting capacities. The impact on the supply - demand gap by the end of the year depends on different commissioning scenarios [11]. - In the Shandong market, the supply - demand situation is more important. As of now, it is looser than in 2024. By the end of the year, different commissioning plans will lead to different supply - demand gaps [11]. 3.2 PDH Profit Remains Crucial - PDH and refinery catalytic cracking have a significant impact on the propylene trading market. In Q4, profit will remain a key factor. With propane in the seasonal peak, PDH is currently at a loss, and some factories plan maintenance. PP overcapacity also adds pressure [15][17]. 3.3 PP Operation Still Needs Key Attention - The price of the propylene main contract is highly correlated with the PP futures price. PP accounts for about 70% of propylene demand. In Q4, key aspects to focus on include supply - side profit - related operation fluctuations, demand - side performance during the peak season, the PP - propylene spread, and the impact of macro - policies [19]. 3.4 Continuous Tracking of the "Anti - Involution" Policy - The "Anti - Involution" policy has increased market volatility since June, and its impact will be greater in Q4. The assessment of old devices is more for technological improvement, with a relatively small impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The coal market may affect market sentiment. The reduction of South Korea's cracking capacity will reduce imports to China, but domestic production can make up for it [24]. 3.5 Potential Delivery Issues - Propylene has high storage and transportation requirements. The current exchange settings have designated delivery areas and depots, with a 100 - yuan/ton discount for South China's depots. There may be delivery problems in South China, and the discount may not cover the friction costs [26]. Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 3.1 Valuation Feedback - PDH cost provides support. In Q4, propane prices are relatively strong, and the 01 PDH cost is about 6,400 yuan/ton, with a neutral valuation [27]. - The PP - PL spread is oscillating at a low level. Historically, the spread is mostly between 400 - 800 yuan/ton, currently around 500 yuan/ton, with a neutral short - term outlook [31]. - The olefin/methanol ratio is expected to decline in Q4 due to potential gas restrictions in Iran affecting methanol supply [33]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Outlook - From January to August, domestic propylene production was 394.4 million tons, a 13.21% year - on - year increase. In Q4, production is expected to remain high under high commissioning, and PDH profit is crucial for external supply [35][36]. - PP is expected to maintain high production in Q4, supporting propylene demand but with limited upward price space. Other downstream industries are also affected by profit and need continuous profit tracking [41]. - The Shandong market is more important for supply - demand balance. In Q4, key aspects to focus on include supply - side PDH profit and propylene - polypropylene spread, and demand - side new project commissioning and the operation of main downstream industries [42][43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradictions affecting the propylene market include the possible repeated submission of "anti - involution", the vulnerability of spot prices to individual device fluctuations, and the insufficient demand of major downstream PP, which leads to a contraction in the price difference between PP and propylene and a lack of ability to accept high - priced propylene. The PL01 contract is expected to oscillate between 6200 - 6600 yuan/ton. The propylene trend is highly correlated with polypropylene, and the PP - PL spread oscillates between 490 - 540 yuan/ton. Recently, as PP maintenance increases, its valuation is repaired, and propylene follows the upward trend [1]. - In the short - term, the spot price is relatively stable, and the futures price rebounds slightly. The previous expectation of a narrowing basis has basically been fulfilled. The basis has shrunk from a high of 190 to - 15 yuan/ton. Considering the characteristics of the 01 contract, the month - spread strategy is to conduct reverse arbitrage at high prices, and the hedging and arbitrage strategy is to widen the PP - PL spread at low prices [15][17]. - In the long - term, there are expectations of new capacity coming on stream on the supply side, and the growth rate of PP terminal demand is lower than that of supply, leading to inventory accumulation [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - "Anti - involution" may be repeatedly submitted, affecting market expectations [1]. - Spot prices are easily affected by individual device fluctuations. With the restart and increased load of some devices in the Shandong region, the supply - demand gap in the spot market has widened [1]. - The main downstream PP has sufficient supply but insufficient demand. The price difference between PP and propylene has significantly shrunk, and most downstream industries have poor profit conditions and resist high - priced propylene [1]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The market is in an oscillatory state, and the price range of PL01 is 6200 - 6600 yuan/ton. For the unilateral strategy, those who went long at around 6300 can still hold their positions [15]. - **Basis Strategy**: The basis is in an oscillatory state. The previous expectation of a narrowing basis has basically been fulfilled, and currently, the spot is stable in the short - term, and the futures price rebounds slightly [15]. - **Month - Spread Strategy**: Conduct reverse arbitrage at high prices. Considering that 01 is a forced cancellation month, the direction is still to conduct reverse arbitrage at high prices [16][17]. - **Hedging and Arbitrage Strategy**: Widen the PP - PL spread at low prices. When the PP - PL spread is around 500, add positions [17]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted price range of propylene is 6250 - 6600 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 0.0513 and a historical percentage of 0.102 (3 - year) [19]. - **Hedging Strategy**: For inventory management, when the finished product inventory is high, short - sell propylene futures at high prices and sell call options to lock in profits and reduce costs. For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low, buy propylene futures at low prices and sell put options to lock in procurement costs and reduce costs [19]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: On the crude oil side, sanctions and disputes around Russia drive the market up. On the industrial side, as PP maintenance increases this week, its valuation is repaired, driving propylene up. Additionally, as PDH profits are compressed, planned maintenance increases [20]. - **Negative Information**: This week's data on the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits and the second - quarter GDP are better than expected, increasing the probability of a pause in interest rate cuts in October [21]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch - On September 30th, China's official manufacturing PMI will be released [23]. - On October 1st, the US September ISM manufacturing data is expected to be 49.2, higher than the previous value of 48.7 [23]. - On October 3rd, economic data such as the US unemployment rate and non - farm payrolls will be released [23]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: This week, the PL01 contract first declined and then rebounded. The trading volume did not change much. The net long positions of the main profitable seats decreased, the positions in the top - ten long and short lists did not change significantly, the net short positions of profitable seats decreased slightly, foreign investors' net short positions increased slightly, and retail investors' net long positions increased slightly [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: From the daily line, propylene is in a rebound during an oscillatory decline, and the short - term upper pressure is still near the middle track. From the hourly line, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating a possible transition to oscillatory consolidation in the short - term [24]. - **Basis and Month - Spread Structure**: This week, the basis of propylene 01 closed at - 15 yuan/ton, compared with - 67 yuan/ton last week. The 01 - 02 month - spread of propylene closed at - 34 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from last week, showing an overall reverse arbitrage trend but with oscillations [27]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream Profits This week, the gross profit of major refineries was 823.98 yuan/ton (- 98.7), and that of Shandong local refineries was 204.72 yuan/ton (- 73.48). Although the profits of major refineries increased, the cracking capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, mainly affected by the new cracking capacity of Yulong [30]. 3.4.2 Mid - stream Profits - The cracking profit of Asian naphtha was - 56 US dollars/ton (- 27), and that of Asian propane was - 14 US dollars/ton (- 12). Propane cracking profit was better than naphtha cracking profit, but as the propane price strengthened, propane cracking profit weakened [32]. - The PDH profit based on FEI cost was - 215 yuan/ton (- 65), and that based on CP cost was - 170 yuan/ton (- 175). Currently, both the propylene monomer and PP sectors are in a loss - making state [32]. 3.4.3 Downstream Profits - The price difference between PP raffia and propylene was 225 yuan/ton (+ 160), and that between PP powder and propylene was 255 yuan/ton (+ 130). The pressure caused by the price difference still exists [34]. - The profit of propylene oxide (PO) by different methods showed different trends. The profit of acrylonitrile was - 1191 yuan/ton (+ 6), with little change. The profit of acrylic acid was + 391 yuan/ton (+ 214), with a significant improvement. The profit of butanol was + 147 yuan/ton (+ 84), with little change. The profit of octanol was 264 yuan/ton (- 84), with a relatively large decline recently but still in a relatively good profit state among downstream products. The profit of phenol - acetone was - 371 yuan/ton (- 87), with little change [36]. 3.4.4 Import and Export Profit Tracking The price difference between Chinese and South Korean propylene has shown little recent fluctuation. With fewer planned maintenance activities in South Korea in September and October, imports are expected to remain at a high level [41]. 3.5 Supply, Demand, and Inventory Projection 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection in the Shandong Market This week, both supply and demand in the Shandong market increased. In October, Binhuahua and Lihuayi have maintenance plans, and the supply - demand gap will oscillate [43]. 3.5.2 Market Supply - Side and Projection - This week, due to the resumption of production by some enterprises, the overall operating rate of propylene increased to 75.52% (+ 1.67%), still at a high level. In October, Jilin Petrochemical, Guangxi Petrochemical, and Yulong Petrochemical still have plans for production start - up and capacity increase, while on the PDH side, Bohua, Binhuahua, Haiwei, Lihuayi, etc. have maintenance plans [46]. - This week's supply increase mainly comes from the increased load of Wanhua Penglai. The production volume in the Shandong region is expected to oscillate in the next few weeks. Although Zhenhua is restarting, Jinneng's maintenance is postponed, and the maintenance plans of Binhuahua and Lihuayi are expected to offset some of the incremental supply [48]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - The price difference between PP powder and propylene is still relatively low, and many devices are shut down. This week, Shandong Kairi resumed production at a low - load operation [54]. - In the Shandong region, demand increased this week, mainly due to the resumption of production of PP devices. There were different production - related changes in various downstream industries such as PP granules, PP powder, propylene oxide, acrylonitrile, acrylic acid, butanol - octanol, and phenol - acetone [73].

Report Industry Investment Rating - L, PP are rated neutral; L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05 are recommended for reverse spreads; no recommendation for cross - variety trading [3] Core View - For PE, the supply side has seen a more - than - expected return due to the restart of many previously shut - down plants. The demand side has a slight improvement in pre - holiday stocking, but the demand follow - up is slow. The cost side is supported by rising international oil prices, yet the PE trend is still suppressed by the supply side [2] - For PP, the supply pressure remains high despite the decline in overall PP start - up rate. The demand side is in a seasonally improving period, but the recovery is slow. The cost side has a slight rebound in international oil prices. In the short term, PP demand improves but is limited by supply, and low profits restrict its downside [2] Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 7,142 yuan/ton (+37); PP main contract closed at 6,877 yuan/ton (+35). LL North China spot was 7,080 yuan/ton (+10), LL East China spot was 7,110 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot was 6,730 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was - 62 yuan/ton (-27), LL East China basis was - 32 yuan/ton (-37), PP East China basis was - 147 yuan/ton (-35) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE start - up rate was 80.4% (+2.3%), PP start - up rate was 74.9% (-1.9%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 177.5 yuan/ton (-139.0), PP oil - based production profit was - 442.5 yuan/ton (-139.0), PDH - based PP production profit was - 267.8 yuan/ton (-8.2) [1] - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit was - 148.9 yuan/ton (-57.6), PP import profit was - 528.9 yuan/ton (+2.4), PP export profit was 34.9 US dollars/ton (-0.3) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film start - up rate was 26.8% (+2.6%), PE downstream packaging film start - up rate was 51.8% (+0.5%), PP downstream plastic weaving start - up rate was 43.6% (+0.5%), PP downstream BOPP film start - up rate was 61.4% (-0.1%) [1] Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply side has more plants restarting than planned to shut down; demand side has a slight improvement in pre - holiday stocking but slow follow - up; cost side is supported by rising oil prices, yet the trend is suppressed by supply [2] - **PP**: Supply side has increased supply pressure despite more plants likely to restart; demand side is in a seasonally improving period but with slow recovery; cost side has a slight rebound in oil prices and strong propane. Short - term demand improves but is limited by supply, and low profits restrict downside [2] Strategy - **Single - sided**: L, PP are neutral [3] - **Inter - period**: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread [3] - **Cross - variety**: No recommendation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The current state of the PP market shows a slight recovery in downstream operating rates, but overall demand remains below expectations, leading to a recommendation to observe the market rather than engage in active investment [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The operating rate of PP downstream has increased by 0.59 percentage points to 51.45%, which is still low compared to historical levels [1] - The operating rate for plastic weaving has risen by 0.5 percentage points to 43.6%, with orders showing a slight increase, slightly higher than the same period in the previous two years [1] - As of September 23, the operating rate of PP enterprises has dropped to around 80% due to maintenance at facilities such as Zhongjing Petrochemical and Zhenhai Refining [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The inventory levels of petrochemical companies are at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years, with general destocking observed in September [1] - The recent drop in crude oil prices is attributed to a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, a significant increase in U.S. distillate oil inventories, and expectations of increased Iraqi oil exports [1] - The recent commissioning of the 450,000 tons/year PP production line at CNOOC Ningbo Daxie is expected to impact supply, while maintenance activities have slightly increased [1] Group 3: Seasonal Trends and Future Outlook - The improvement in weather conditions and the approach of the peak season (Golden September and Silver October) are expected to boost plastic weaving operating rates, with many industries anticipating a rise in demand [1] - However, the demand during the peak season is not meeting expectations, and there is a lack of large-scale concentrated procurement in the market [1] - The implementation of anti-involution policies in the PP industry remains pending, which, along with the elimination of outdated facilities, is part of macro policies aimed at addressing overcapacity issues and will influence future market trends [1]

Core Viewpoint - The polypropylene (PP) market has shown signs of stabilization in a weak overall trend since September, with futures contracts experiencing a rebound after hitting a three-month low [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply-side support for the PP market is weakening, although maintenance activities are providing some support; however, the expected rebound in prices may be limited [1] - As of mid-September, there has been a noticeable increase in unplanned maintenance of PP facilities, with nearly 40 plants currently offline, affecting over 9 million tons of capacity [1] - By September 15, the domestic PP plant shutdown ratio rose to 20.74%, an increase of 7.82 percentage points from the beginning of the month, indicating some relief in supply-side pressure [1] Future Market Outlook - There are no new capacity additions planned for PP in the latter half of September, but several facilities, including those from Shenhua Xinjiang, Daqing Refining, and Zhongjing Petrochemical, are expected to restart, which may reduce the intensity of maintenance activities [1] - Considering the need for inventory reduction before the National Day holiday, the supply-side support for the PP market may weaken, leading to a limited duration for any short-term price rebound [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 01 - 05 reverse arbitrage; Cross - variety: Long L - P [3] Core Viewpoints - Macro support has strengthened, black - series commodities led the rise, driving a slight rebound in polyolefins. Some upstream petrochemical plants are under maintenance, with capacity utilization slightly decreasing. New capacity is expected to be put into production, and supply is expected to remain at a high level, with large inventory pressure in the upstream and mid - stream. Downstream demand is in the seasonal improvement stage of "Golden September", with the overall downstream factory operating rate rising slightly. The international oil price has rebounded, and the propane price has continued to rise, strengthening the cost - side support [2] Summary According to the Directory I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - It includes the trend of the plastic futures main contract, the basis between LL East China and the main contract, the trend of the polypropylene futures main contract, and the basis between PP East China and the main contract [8][11] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - It involves the production profit of LL (crude oil - based), PE operating rate, PE weekly output, PE maintenance loss, PP production profit (crude oil - based), PP production profit (PDH - based), PP operating rate, PP weekly output, PP maintenance loss, and PDH - based PP capacity utilization [18][20][21] III. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Spread - It includes the price spreads of HD injection - LL East China, HD blow - molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt copolymer - drawn East China, and PP homopolymer injection - drawn East China [27][34][35] IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - It covers the import profit of LL, the price difference between LL FOB US Gulf and China CFR, the price difference between LL Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, the price difference between LL Europe FD and China CFR, the import profit of PP, the export profit of PP (to Southeast Asia), the price difference between PP homopolymer injection FOB US Gulf and China CFR, the price difference between PP homopolymer injection Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, the price difference between PP homopolymer injection Northwest Europe FOB and China CFR, and the export profit of LL [41][45][52] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - It includes the operating rates of PE downstream agricultural film, packaging film, and winding film, and the operating rates of PP downstream woven bags, BOPP film, injection molding, as well as the production profits of PP downstream woven bags and BOPP film [61][62][72] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - It involves the inventories of PE oil - based enterprises, PE coal - chemical enterprises, PE traders, PE ports, PP oil - based enterprises, PP coal - chemical enterprises, PP traders, and PP ports [74][77][88]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of polypropylene is more likely to rise than fall, but the upside space is limited, with pressure at the [7300] price level. The demand is in the process of transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, showing marginal improvement, which drives the price up in the short term. However, the supply pressure remains high, with new production capacity being continuously launched and the existing production load also being relatively high [6]. - The anti - involution policy announced last Friday did not materialize. This week, the price of polyolefins fluctuated and then weakened, especially on Friday. The supply - demand fundamentals are still weak. The supply pressure remains, while the recovery of the demand side is disappointing. The downstream acceptance is limited, and the market price has been adjusted downwards. Additionally, with the end of the peak season and OPEC+ increasing production, the cost - side crude oil situation is also not optimistic [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The spot price of plastic standard products is weak and falling, but the basis has weakened. The East China basis has weakened by 20 to around - 100 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the week, the North China basis has weakened by 40 to around - 160 yuan/ton, and the South China basis has weakened by 40 to around - 90 yuan/ton [20]. - **Non - standard basis**: The trend of the non - standard basis of plastics is similar to that of the standard basis [21]. - **Regional spread**: The North China - East China spread has rebounded, and the South China - East China spread has remained stable at a low level [34]. - **Related product spread**: The injection - molding - to - drawing spread has weakened, and the low - melt copolymer - to - drawing spread is at a medium level [35]. - **Disk spread**: The 1 - 5 monthly spread has weakened again to below - 20. The L - PP01 spread has currently fallen to around 270. The previous PP - 701 spread dropped significantly as 1 rebounded and has recently recovered and stabilized. Overall, the supply pressure of PP is greater (high load + new production), while L has more maintenance and the demand for thick - film starts in September, but the demand recovery of PP is relatively slow. Recently, due to the lower - than - expected demand for L, the spread has turned downward. The methanol is statically weak, and the inventory has rapidly accumulated under high imports. However, the narrative of winter gas restrictions in Iran has begun, and the 01 contract has stopped falling and rebounded, with limited upward space for MTO profits [54]. 2. Domestic Production - end Profit and Supply - **Production profit**: - Oil - based production: The oil price rebounded slightly this week and then fell back. Geopolitical conflicts continue, and OPEC+ is considering increasing production in October. The oil - based production profit remains at a relatively good level in recent years [82]. - PDH production: The overseas supply of LPG from the Middle East and the United States will further increase, and the domestic supply from local refineries will return. The supply pressure has further increased. The PDH profit is not good [82]. - Coal - based production: As the coal price rebounds, the CTO profit has shrunk but still remains at a high level. The inland MTO profit has deteriorated under the tight supply - demand situation of methanol [82]. - **Domestic production volume and load**: - In 2024, China's PP production capacity was 4401 tons, and in early 2025, it was expected to increase by 265.5 tons, with an expected capacity growth rate of about 1.28%. As of August 2025, the new domestic PP production capacity totaled 370.5 tons, with a capacity growth rate of 8.31%. The planned production capacity in 2025 is 490.5 tons, with an estimated annual capacity growth rate of 11% [115][117][118]. - This week, the PP production volume was 78.67 tons (- 2.73 tons), and the operating rate was 76.83% (- 3.08%). The supply loss of PP was 23.10 tons, including 16.64 tons of maintenance loss and 6.45 tons of load - reduction loss. Some devices such as Daqing Refining & Chemical and Donghua Energy (Zhangjiagang) stopped production this week, and the supply has declined from a high level [119]. - **Regional operating rate**: The operating rates of different regions show different trends. The data of the operating rates of the Northwest, North China, East China, South China, Central China, Northeast, and Southwest regions are provided, with different trends over time [131][132][136]. - **Production allocation ratio**: An increase in the drawing production allocation may indicate that the short - term standard products are stronger than non - standard products, but the medium - term supply pressure may increase [140]. 3. US Dollar Price and Import - Export Profit - **US dollar price and spread**: The prices in Northwest Europe and the Americas have fallen from high levels, and the overall price in Asia has weakened. The spread between CFR China and the overseas market has rebounded [149][150]. - **Import - export profit**: The domestic market is weakly consolidating. The export offers of production enterprises remain stable, while overseas inquiries are scarce. China's price is at a "global low," and it is difficult to open the import arbitrage window [166]. 4. Downstream Operating Rate - This week, the overall downstream operating rate increased by 0.63% month - on - month. Most operating rates are recovering. The operating rate of plastic weaving increased by 0.4%, the operating rates of BOPP and CPP increased by 0.12% and 2.2% respectively, the operating rate of PP pipes rebounded by 0.17%, and the operating rates of modification and injection molding are also rising. With the arrival of the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October," the downstream operating rate will further increase [169]. 5. Inventory - Production enterprises' inventory decreased by 1.24 tons to 57.51 tons. The inventory of the two major oil companies decreased by 3.09 tons, while the coal - chemical inventory increased by 0.58 tons. The PBI inventory decreased by 0.9 tons, and the local refinery inventory increased by 2.17 tons. The supply pressure has increased, but the upstream petrochemical inventory has been actively transferred to the intermediate - trader link, resulting in a slight decrease in the production enterprises' inventory this week [11][223]. - Traders' inventory increased by 2.29 tons, and the inventory in the intermediate link is being digested slowly. The port inventory decreased by 0.16 tons [11][223]. 6. Position, Trading Volume, and Warehouse Receipt Situation - **Position**: The position volumes of the polypropylene 05, 09, and 01 contracts are provided, with different trends over time [237]. - **Trading volume**: The trading volumes of the polypropylene 01, 05, and 09 contracts are provided, with different trends over time [239][242][245]. - **Warehouse receipt**: The number of registered PP warehouse receipts on September 12, 2025, is 17,191, with a trend over time [251][252].