【银河期货】塑料 PP 每日早盘观察（26-03-04） 【市场情况】 L 塑料相关：L 主力 2605 合约报收 7403 点，上涨+203 点或+2.82%。LLDPE 市 场价格宽幅上涨，变动幅度在 170-650 元/吨，提振市场氛围，石化出厂多数上调， 贸易商随行高报，现货价格多数涨，部分贸易商封盘销售，下游采购实盘一单一谈。 华北大区 LLDPE 主流成交价格在 6920-7550 元/吨，多数上涨 170-500 元/吨。 PP 聚丙烯相关：PP 主力 2605 合约报收 7451 点，上涨+228 点或+3.16%。地缘 政治波动持续，原油涨势明显，进一步提振 PP 市场。同时原油价格的上涨也进一步 带动 PP 成本走高，生产企业纷纷上调价格，再度推升市场。贸易商报盘跟涨明显， 午后期货盘面持续涨停局面，贸易商部分惜售封盘。下游工厂多有采购，且价格涨势 明显下游谨慎心态增加，入市采购积极性有所下滑，日度成交较昨日略有转淡。 塑料 L 及 PP：多单持有 L&PP 日报 【重要资讯】 援引中国化工报消息：为加强预期引导和行业自律，中国石油和化学工业联合 会日前发布《石化化工行业存在供大于需风险的 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃周报 2026-2-27 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 本周概要： • 聚烯烃周评：上个交易周L05下跌0.71%，收于6597，合计增仓约109000张。PP05上证0.65%收于 6611，合计增仓约55000张。技术上看，近期L、PP主力合约运行于20日均线下，技术走势转空。 • 大越五大指标中的主力持仓显示，近期L、PP高胜率席位净持仓均偏空。 • L主力合约基差-97 ，PP主力合约基差-31，L、PP主力合约升水。 • 基本面来看：2月官方制造业PMI为50.2%，较上月上升1.1个百分点，重回扩张区间。中东伊朗局 势再度升级，美以展开军事进攻，目前霍尔木兹海峡航运中断，外盘原油跳空高开，当前伊朗未 给出解除封锁时间表，具体对原油后续影响和封锁时间相关， ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 卓创资讯PP分析师 孟秋烨、相欣妍 【导语】节前来看，虽成本端支撑仍在，但供需面转弱对于华南市场行情存一定利空影响，导致市场呈 现偏弱震荡态势。而节后归来，原料价格仍处高位，成本端对华南PP行情形成拖底力量，同时节后首 日期货盘面涨幅扩大，提振现货市场氛围，带动现货市场同步上涨。 受成本、供需多重因素扰动 2月市场弱震荡后回暖 2月上旬来看，随着宏观情绪逐步降温，节前PP市场重回基本面主导，而随着检修装置的重启以及年底 控库压力的加大，持货商出货意愿仍在，此外工厂逐步进入春节假期，采购节奏明显放缓，市场交投氛 围转淡，但成本端底部支撑仍在，市场呈现偏弱震荡态势。据卓创资讯数据统计，截至2月14日，华南 地区拉丝均价收于6700元/吨，较1月底下跌1.18个百分点。节后归来，短期地缘风险扰动仍在，原料价 格仍处高位，成本端对华南PP行情形成拖底力量，同时节后首日期货盘面涨幅扩大，提振现货市场氛 围，带动现货市场小幅回暖。 检修装置回归加之去库压力加大供应端支撑不足 供应端来看，虽2026年以来暂无新增产能释放，但2月份国内PP存量检修装置逐步减少 ...

FFF START FREE 研究中心能化团队 2026/02/25 す77 煤期 河北折盘 西北折盘 CFR东南 量商行营 江苏现货 CFR中国 华南现货 进口利润| 主力基差 型商标准面 E lif E E 2210 2398 2315 2443 323 2205 263 -3 2220 2215 2395 2315 263 323 -7 2438 2213 2390 2213 2315 2438 263 323 -15 2210 2205 2390 2315 2438 259 321 -0 2243 2255 2400 2315 2468 图记 33 50 10 30 O 伊朗矛盾继续发酵，mto出现抵抗，兴兴停车，盛虹2月停车，鲁西下周停车，其余也有降幅计划，预计等待伊朗 正常后重新开车， 目前看来甲醇往上往下都难，MTO利润卡住了上限，除非其余下游涨价，目前看来偏空或卖看涨 期权较合适。 MA现货价格走势 MA基差 ● 华东出罐:中间价 ● 西北/陕西:中间价 · 2016 · 2017 · 2018 · 2019 · 2020 ● 山东:中间价 ● MA进口折人民币 ● 2021 ● 2022 ● ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall macro - sentiment has weakened, and the plastic futures market is in a range - bound oscillation. The geopolitical risk premium has boosted oil prices, strengthening the cost support for plastics. However, the fundamentals of plastics are weak, with strong supply and weak demand, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the upper - middle reaches after the holiday. For PP, the cost support exists in the short - term, but the supply - demand structure is still weak, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation and macro guidance during the off - season [4][5]. - The strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for single - sided trading, no operation for inter - period trading, and a cautious shorting of the L - PP spread when it is high [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,734 yuan/ton (-53), and that of the PP main contract is 6,648 yuan/ton (-45). The spot prices and basis of different regions and varieties have also changed [2]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 87.3% (+1.4%), and the PP operating rate is 75.9% (+2.0%) [2]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is -211.6 yuan/ton (-46.4), and the PP oil - based production profit is -471.6 yuan/ton (-46.4). The PDH - based PP production profit is -546.4 yuan/ton (-29.4) [2]. - **Import and Export**: The LL import profit is -109.0 yuan/ton (-2.3), the PP import profit is -253.8 yuan/ton (-2.4), and the PP export profit is -53.7 US dollars/ton (+10.3) [3]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 24.7% (-5.4%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 20.3% (-18.5%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 27.9% (-8.9%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.3% (-4.3%) [3]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The market is affected by macro - sentiment and fundamentals. The supply pressure remains high due to the high operating rate and more imported resources. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory in the upper - middle reaches may accumulate after the holiday [4]. - **PP**: The cost support exists in the short - term, but the supply - demand structure is still weak. The supply pressure is acceptable in the short - term, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally, and the inventory accumulation situation should be concerned [5]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - sided**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach as the oil price and raw material propane are strong, providing cost support, and the short - term futures market will oscillate widely following the cost and macro - sentiment [6]. - **Inter - period**: No operation [6]. - **Inter - variety**: Cautiously short the L - PP spread when it is high [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The PE market is under pressure with a weak supply - demand situation. The cost side and macro - sentiment are volatile, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments and post - holiday inventory accumulation [3] - The PP market also has a weak supply - demand structure. The cost side has short - term support but is also volatile, and the focus is on inventory accumulation during the off - season and macro - level guidance [4] - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see, as the short - term market will fluctuate widely following the cost side and macro - sentiment [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6721 yuan/ton (-91), the PP main contract is 6630 yuan/ton (-61). LL North China spot is 6620 yuan/ton (-30), LL East China spot is 6700 yuan/ton (-50), PP East China spot is 6680 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis is - 101 yuan/ton (+61), LL East China basis is - 21 yuan/ton (+41), and PP East China basis is 50 yuan/ton (+61) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate is 85.9% (+0.6%), PP operating rate is 73.9% (-0.9%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is - 81.4 yuan/ton (-135.1), PP oil - based production profit is - 391.4 yuan/ton (-135.1), PDH - based PP production profit is - 485.2 yuan/ton (-52.7) [1] - **Import and Export**: LL import profit is - 84.1 yuan/ton (-97.3), PP import profit is - 362.9 yuan/ton (+2.8), PP export profit is - 60.4 US dollars/ton (-0.4) [2] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 30.2% (-4.4%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 38.8% (-3.3%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 36.7% (-5.3%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 64.6% (+0.4%) [2] 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The macro - sentiment has weakened, and the plastic market is under pressure. The cost side is uncertain due to geopolitical factors. The supply side has increased pressure with many restarting devices and more imported resources, while the demand side is in a off - season with declining downstream operating rates. There may be inventory accumulation pressure in the upper and middle reaches [3] - **PP**: The short - term cost side has support. The supply side pressure is acceptable with some PDH devices under maintenance and limited increase in overall operating rate, and enterprises are actively reducing inventory. The demand side is expected to decline seasonally, and the overall demand is weak [4] 3.3 Strategy - **Single - sided**: Wait and see, as the short - term market will fluctuate widely following the cost side and macro - sentiment [5] - **Inter - period**: No relevant strategy provided - **Inter - variety**: No relevant strategy provided

Core Viewpoint - Concerns have arisen regarding the safety of plastic takeout containers, particularly when used for hot food, due to potential harmful substance release [1][2] Group 1: Standards and Material Safety - The implementation of the national food safety standard GB4806.7-2023 on September 6, 2024, mandates that plastic containers must not release harmful substances under expected usage conditions [2] - Compliant plastic containers are primarily made from polypropylene (PP) and some from polyethylene (PE), which exhibit good heat resistance and chemical stability [2] Group 2: Risks Associated with Low-Quality Containers - The combination of low-quality plastic containers and high-temperature, high-fat foods poses significant health risks, including increased chances of heart failure and cardiovascular diseases [3] - Research indicates that exposure to low-quality plastic takeout boxes can alter gut microbiota, leading to inflammation and oxidative stress, which may result in myocardial damage [3] Group 3: Recommendations for Consumers - Consumers are advised to choose takeout from vendors using heat-resistant aluminum foil containers for hot or fried foods and paper containers without plastic film for non-soupy items [4] - It is recommended to transfer food to ceramic or glass dishes immediately after receiving takeout to minimize contact time with plastic containers [4] - Incorporating antioxidant-rich foods, such as broccoli and whole grains, can help mitigate oxidative damage from plastic-related substances [4]

Group 1 - The chemical sector is gaining market attention due to the logic of "cyclical bottoming and expectation reversal," alongside rising raw material costs driven by North American cold waves and geopolitical conflicts, leading to an increase in polyolefin futures prices [2] Group 2 - Recent trends show a significant divergence in the price movements of upstream propylene and ethylene monomers, with propylene prices remaining strong while ethylene prices are declining despite rising prices of upstream and downstream products [3] - The current operating rate for polyethylene (PE) is 85.35%, an increase of 0.68 percentage points from the previous week, as facilities like Shanghai Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical restart operations [3] - Ethylene prices are weakening due to increased spot supply from new domestic capacities and weak downstream demand, while the profitability of PE in the ethylene downstream chain is recovering significantly [3] - The current operating rate for polypropylene (PP) is 74.78%, a decrease of 1.25 percentage points from the previous week, as several facilities are temporarily shut down, impacting PP capacity utilization [3] Group 3 - Upstream inventory of polyolefins is decreasing rapidly, with total PP inventory dropping to 648,300 tons, a decrease of 31,900 tons week-on-week, and total PE inventory falling to 802,600 tons, a decrease of 9,800 tons week-on-week [4] - The pace of PE inventory reduction has slowed, primarily due to the coal chemical sector shifting from inventory reduction to accumulation, alleviating previous low inventory pressures [4] - Overall, upstream inventory pressure for polyolefins is low, but there is relatively high inventory pressure in the intermediate circulation segment, especially for standard products [4] Group 4 - The downstream demand for polyolefins is entering a traditional off-season, with limited stocking willingness from terminal factories as the Spring Festival approaches, leading to weak speculative stocking sentiment [5] - The average operating rate for PP downstream industries has decreased to 52.08%, a decline of 0.79 percentage points, with only BOPP and CPP showing slight increases [5] - The average operating rate for PE downstream is 37.76%, a decrease of 1.77 percentage points, with most sectors experiencing a decline, particularly in the packaging film industry [5] Group 5 - The current market structure for polyolefins shows "low upstream inventory and high intermediate inventory," with significant divergence in supply trends between PP and PE [6] - PP is constrained by high propylene and propane prices, limiting the release of marginal capacities, while PE is seeing accelerated recovery in operating rates due to acceptable profitability in the supply chain [6] - Although supply is gradually increasing, it will exert pressure on the mid-term trend of polyolefins, but strong cost support is expected to maintain a bullish price trend in the short term [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Cost - side support for polyolefins has declined, leading to a correction in polyolefin futures. The supply - demand fundamentals of both PE and PP are weak, and the rebound sustainability is limited. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy for L and PP [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,878 yuan/ton (-136), and that of the PP main contract is 6,714 yuan/ton (-110). LL North China spot is 6,800 yuan/ton (-50), LL East China spot is 6,850 yuan/ton (-70), and PP East China spot is 6,680 yuan/ton (+40). LL North China basis is -78 yuan/ton (+86), LL East China basis is -28 yuan/ton (+66), and PP East China basis is -34 yuan/ton (+150) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率 is 85.4% (+0.7%), and PP开工率 is 74.8% (-1.2%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is -115.3 yuan/ton (-30.1), PP oil - based production profit is -635.3 yuan/ton (-30.1), and PDH - based PP production profit is -505.3 yuan/ton (+25.9) [1] - **Import and Export**: LL import profit is 76.7 yuan/ton (-31.9), PP import profit is -328.7 yuan/ton (-43.8), and PP export profit is -74.1 US dollars/ton (+0.3) [2] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film开工率 is 34.6% (-1.8%), PE downstream packaging film开工率 is 42.1% (-2.9%), PP downstream plastic weaving开工率 is 42.0% (+0.0%), and PP downstream BOPP film开工率 is 64.2% (+0.2%) [2] 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: International oil prices have dropped significantly, weakening the cost - side support for plastics. The supply is expected to increase due to the restart of many devices and more arriving imported resources, while the demand is in the off - season with a decline in overall downstream开工率. The supply - demand fundamentals are weakening, and the de - stocking pressure is large [3] - **PP**: The cost - side support of propane has declined, and international oil prices have dropped, causing the PP futures and spot prices to fall. The supply is difficult to be strongly supported, and the demand is in the off - season with limited new orders. The supply - demand structure is weak, and the de - stocking pressure may limit the rebound space [4] 3.3 Strategy - **Single - sided**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for L and PP. The short - term cost - side fluctuates strongly, and the macro and capital factors cause greater disturbances. The current supply - demand fundamentals of polyolefins are weak, and the rebound sustainability may be limited [5] - **Inter - period**: Not provided - **Inter - variety**: Not provided

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For methanol, with the continued fermentation of the Iran conflict, MTO shows resistance, some plants like Xingxing and Shenghong have parking plans. Currently, methanol has limited upward and downward space, and it is more appropriate to be bearish or sell call options [1] - For PE, the spot price is stable, the basis is weak, oil - and coal - based profits turn worse, upstream inventories are decreasing while social inventories are increasing. The supply of standard products is growing, and the supply - demand balance of LL in the 05 contract is under pressure [4] - For PP, the market is stable, the basis is weak, import and export profits are negative, and the export volume is slightly decreasing. Supply is flat in January, downstream demand shows some improvement, and overall inventory is neutral. The balance sheet for the 05 contract and later is expected to be slightly under pressure [10] - For PVC, the basis is improving, the market transaction is average, the comprehensive profit is low, the short - term seasonal start - up is recovering, and the overall inventory is high. The long - term demand from the real estate industry is weak, and the medium - and long - term outlook is poor [12] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - Price data includes various regional prices such as Hebei, Northwest, CFR Southeast, etc. The price fluctuations are shown, and the MTO profit situation restricts the upward space of methanol prices [1] - Graphs show the trends of MA spot price, basis, regional price differences, production profits, MTO profits, international price ratios, etc. [1] PE - Price and inventory data: On January 2, 2026, there are prices for Northeast Asia ethylene, various PE products in different regions, and related inventory and basis data. The daily changes show price and basis fluctuations [4] - Market conditions: The market is volatile, with stable spot prices, weak basis, and changes in production profits and inventory levels. The supply of standard products is increasing, and the supply - demand balance of LL is under pressure [4] PP - Price and inventory data: There are prices for Northeast Asia propylene, various PP products in different regions, import and export profits, and basis data on January 26 - 30, 2026, along with daily changes [10] - Market conditions: The market is stable, the basis is weak, import and export profits are negative, and the export volume is slightly decreasing. Supply is flat in January, downstream demand shows some improvement, and overall inventory is neutral [10] PVC - Price and profit data: From January 26 - 30, 2026, there are prices for Northwest calcium carbide, Shandong caustic soda, and different production methods of PVC in different regions, as well as profit and basis data [11][12] - Market conditions: The basis is improving, the market transaction is average, the comprehensive profit is low, the short - term seasonal start - up is recovering, and the overall inventory is high. The long - term demand from the real estate industry is weak [12]