投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【塑料数据周报（PP&PE ）】 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-01-12 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 L L DPE :低位回暖，反弹有限 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周，我国聚乙烯产量总计在68.68万吨，较上周增加0.52%。（2）中国聚乙烯生产企业产能利用率83.67%，较上周期增加了0.43个百分点。本周期 装置情况来看，周内上海石化、茂名石化、扬子石化、宁夏宝丰等企业存在新增检修计划，不过多于周后期检修，且存在部分存量检修装置重启，因此产 | | | | 能利用率环比上周增加。 | | | | （1）中国LLDPE/LDPE下游制品平均开工率较前期-0.2%。其中农膜整体开工率较前期-1.1%；PE包装膜开工率较前期+0.6%。（2）中国聚乙烯下游制品 平均开工率较前期+0 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that polypropylene (PP) prices are expected to decline throughout 2025, with cautious expectations for 2026 due to oversupply and weak demand in the market [1][2] Group 2 - In 2025, the primary reason for the decline in PP prices is weak fundamentals, with total production capacity increasing by over 10% year-on-year and production volume rising by approximately 17% [1] - The demand side shows sluggish performance in key downstream industries, particularly in real estate, which affects consumption in construction materials and home appliances [1] - Domestic plastic product output from January to November 2025 reached 64.82 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, but the operating rates in major PP downstream sectors remain low [1] Group 3 - In 2026, the PP market will continue to face a complex macro and industrial environment, with planned new capacity of 9.9 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.1% [2] - The real estate sector is expected to maintain downward pressure until 2027, limiting demand for related chemical products [2] - Overall, the PP industry in 2026 will exhibit characteristics of high supply, weak demand, and low profits, with futures prices lacking a basis for significant upward trends [2]

聚烯烃日报 | 2026-01-08 煤炭期价涨幅明显，情绪提振盘面延续上行 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6642元/吨（+63），PP主力合约收盘价为6486元/吨（+63），LL华北现货为6500 元/吨（+130），LL华东现货为6530元/吨（+40），PP华东现货为6250元/吨（+30），LL华北基差为-142元/吨（+67）， LL华东基差为-112元/吨（-23）， PP华东基差为-236元/吨（-33）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为83.2%（+0.6%），PP开工率为76.7%（-0.1%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为174.8元/吨（+90.8），PP油制生产利润为-335.2元/吨（+90.8），PDH制PP生产利 润为-815.4元/吨（-23.8）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为200.9元/吨（+11.8），PP进口利润为-279.2元/吨（+31.8），PP出口利润为-31.5美元/吨 （-4.0）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为39.0%（-4.9%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.4%（+0.2%），PP下游塑编开工率 为43.1%（-0 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 聚丙烯分析师： 薛铭慧 【导语】2025年，PP价格走势与油价走势密切相关，2026年1月初，美国与南美某国发生地缘政治争 端，南美某国作为全球重要的重油储备国，该事件的发生也引发市场担忧全球原油市场的供给格局与价 格预期。对PP而言，原油价格的波动也通过成本面影响聚丙烯市场行情。未来1-2周，原油价格或持续 支撑PP价格上行，但预计成本支撑难抵基本面压力，上方空间有限；2026年1月PP市场价格预计先涨后 跌。 PP与原油走势强关联 成本支撑走强 原油是聚丙烯生产的直接上游，主要产油区的供应变动与国际油价波动密切相关。油价剧烈波动对以石 脑油为路线的聚丙烯生产企业构成显著成本压力，挤压其利润空间。2021-2025年，PP价格走势和原油 价格的关联性先弱后强，相关性系数维持在90% 以上。近五年来看，原油价格呈现小涨后震荡再回落 的态势。自2020年以来，原油价格经历一轮完整经济周期后步入衰退。2021-2022年中，原油价格整体 偏强震荡，重心逐步上移，一度突破120美元/桶。主要受两方面因素支撑：一是全球央行"放水"，美联 储及欧央行均推 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【塑料数据周报（PP&PE ）】 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-01-05 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 L L DPE :低位回暖，反弹有限 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周，我国聚乙烯产量总计在67.22万吨，较上周减少1.09%。（2）中国聚乙烯生产企业产能利用率84.11%，较上周期增加了0.06个百分点。本周期 | | | | 装置情况来看，周内新增独山子石化两套全密度装置检修，不过部分存量装置重启，因此产能利用率环比上周窄幅增加。 | | | | （1）中国LLDPE/LDPE下游制品平均开工率较前期-1.0%。其中农膜整体开工率较前期-1.3%；PE包装膜开工率较前期-0.7%。（2）中国聚乙烯下游制品 | | 需求 | 偏空 | 平均开工率较前期-0.7%。其中农膜整体开工 ...

现货供应偏紧叠加地缘政治扰动 对市场形成带动 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 月内来看，华南地区新增惠州立拓、广州石化、海南乙烯JPP、广西鸿谊等装置停车检修，且中化泉州 双线、茂名石化2PP仍处于停车检修状态，整体检修损失量仍处相对高位，据数据统计，（20251226- 20260101）当周华南地区周度产量为18.98万吨，环比降低2.03个百分点，此外中上游企业多数销售计划 已完成，且区域内拉丝、高熔纤维、薄壁注塑等现货资源供应偏紧，因此持货方挺价意愿较强，加之元 旦节前下游入市适量补货，刚需采购较为稳定，对市场形成一定支撑。节假期间拉美某国家原油出口受 限对原油的影响较大，成本提升的预期强，对PP价格形成提振，市场价格随之小涨10-40元/吨，但下游 对涨价后资源观望居多，少量刚需补货，市场实盘无明显放量对价格涨势形成一定抑制。 卓创资讯PP分析师 相欣妍 【导语】：12月下旬以来，华南地区在现货资源流通偏紧加之刚需稳定的支撑下，市场表现相对坚挺， 且节中地缘政治波动，市场对上游原料价格走强存有预期，业者挺价意愿较强，市场短期或延续偏暖运 行态势，但中下旬来看，供需基 ...

聚烯烃月报 | 2026-01-04 下游开工延续走低，关注装置检修兑现情况 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价6472元/吨（+11），PP主力合约收盘价6348元/吨（+27），LL华北现货6300元/ 吨（+0），LL华东现货6450元/吨（+50），PP华东现货6160元/吨（+0），LL华北基差-172元/吨（+9），LL华东基差 -72元/吨（-11）， PP华东基差-188元/吨（-17）。 上游供应方面，PE上月产量301万吨（+12），LLDPE产量143万吨（+9），PE开工率84%（+0%）；PP上月产量356 万吨（+9），PP开工率77%（-3%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润64.5元/吨（+78.3），PP油制生产利润-415.5元/吨（+78.3），PDH制PP生产利润-828.8 元/吨（-35.7）。 进出口方面，PE11月进口量106万吨（+5），11月出口量9万吨（+0）；PP11月进口量30万吨（+3），11月出口量26 万吨（+2）。LL进口利润99.3元/吨（-2.5），PP进口利润-351.2元/吨（+7.4），PP出口利润-22.4美元/ ...

Core Viewpoint - The propane dehydrogenation (PDH) industry is facing significant losses, with profits dropping to around -1400 yuan/ton, marking the lowest level in nearly six years. There are expectations of widespread shutdowns in the PDH industry this month, raising concerns about the impact on downstream products like propylene, polypropylene (PP), and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) [1][2]. Industry Profit Trends - The PDH industry's profit trajectory showed a clear "rise and fall" pattern last year, peaking in July and August due to low raw material prices and a rebound in downstream PP prices. However, since mid-October, profits have been in decline, leading to significant losses [1]. - The main reason for the continued losses is the weakening price of PP, with supply outpacing demand as PP production capacity is expected to grow by 12% in 2025 and around 10% in 2026, while actual demand growth is only projected at 4%-5% [1][2]. Raw Material Pressure - The pressure on raw materials is increasing, with seasonal purchasing expectations in India and Japan driving up import propane prices. Domestic deep processing enterprises report high spot prices for propane, further squeezing PDH industry profit margins. Additionally, the current demand for PP is weak, limiting price recovery potential [2]. Impact on Related Products LPG - LPG demand is relatively stable, but its price is influenced by the PDH industry's demand. Since November, LPG's fundamentals have shown a "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern. If PDH operations reduce or shut down, LPG's price stability may be compromised [4]. - Long-term projections indicate that LPG production capacity in the U.S. and the Middle East will continue to increase, leading to potential downward pressure on LPG prices if PDH operations decline [4]. PP - As the core downstream product of PDH, PP prices have been declining for three consecutive months since September. While expectations of reduced PDH operations may provide short-term support for PP prices, high inventory levels and upcoming new production capacity in 2026 will likely maintain long-term supply pressure [5]. Propylene - Propylene, being a direct downstream product of PDH, will see a significant supply reduction if PDH operations shut down, potentially providing price support. However, the ongoing pressure on PP margins and reduced operating rates may limit propylene's price increase potential [6]. Trading Opportunities - Market participants should focus on the actual shutdown situation of PDH units in January. If the number of shutdowns increases, it could significantly support PP and propylene prices. Conversely, if shutdowns are fewer than expected, related products may face downward pressure [8]. - Long-term variables to monitor include domestic macro policy releases and the impact of new production capacity planned for 2026, which could affect the supply-demand balance for PP and propylene [8].

Core Viewpoint - The propane dehydrogenation (PDH) industry is experiencing significant losses, with profits dropping to around -1400 yuan/ton, marking the lowest level in nearly six years. There are expectations of widespread shutdowns in the PDH industry this month, raising concerns about the impact on downstream products like propylene, polypropylene (PP), and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) [1][2]. Industry Profit Trends - The PDH industry's profit trajectory showed a clear "rise and fall" pattern last year, peaking in July and August due to low raw material prices and a rebound in downstream PP prices. However, since mid-October, profits have been in decline, leading to significant losses [1]. - The continuous loss in the PDH industry is primarily attributed to weakening PP prices, with supply outpacing demand as PP production capacity is expected to grow by 12% in 2025 and around 10% in 2026, while actual demand growth is only projected at 4%-5% [1][2]. Raw Material Pressure - The pressure on raw materials is increasing, with seasonal purchasing expectations in India and Japan driving up import propane prices. Domestic deep processing enterprises report high spot price discounts on propane, further squeezing PDH industry profit margins. Additionally, the current demand for PP is weak, limiting price recovery potential [2]. Impact on Related Products LPG - LPG demand is relatively stable, but its price is influenced by the PDH industry's demand. Since November, LPG's fundamentals have shown a "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern, with prices remaining firm. However, if PDH operations reduce or shut down, LPG's strong market position may weaken [4]. - Long-term projections indicate that LPG production capacity in the U.S. and the Middle East will continue to increase, leading to potential downward pressure on LPG prices if PDH operations decline [4]. PP - As the core downstream product of PDH, PP prices have been declining for three consecutive months since September due to supply pressures. While expectations of reduced PDH operations may provide short-term support for PP prices, high inventory levels and upcoming new production capacity in 2026 suggest that supply pressures will persist [5]. Propylene - Propylene, as a direct downstream product of PDH, will see a significant supply reduction if PDH operations shut down, potentially providing price support. However, the current profitability of PP powder is under pressure, which may limit propylene's price growth [6]. Trading Opportunities - Market participants should focus on the actual shutdown situation of PDH facilities in January. If the number of shutdowns increases, it could significantly support PP and propylene prices. Conversely, if shutdowns are fewer than expected, related products may face downward pressure [8]. - Long-term variables to monitor include domestic macro policy releases and the impact of new production capacity planned for 2026, which could affect the supply-demand balance for PP and propylene [8].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【塑料数据周报（PP&PE ）】 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-29 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 L L DPE:宏观情绪好转，盘面小幅反弹 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏多 | （1）本周国内聚丙烯产量79.37万吨，相较上周的81.98万吨减少2.61万吨，跌幅3.18%；相较去年同期的71.79万吨增加7.58万吨，涨幅10.56%。（2）聚丙 | | | | 烯平均产能利用率76.87%，环比下降2.53%；中石化产能利用率81.40%，环比下降1.86%。 | | 需求 | 偏空 | （1）平均开工下降0.56个百分点至53.24%。近期原料聚丙烯市场供应宽松，价格持续弱势下探，给予PP制品行业成本支撑疲态，业者对后市心态表现悲 | | | | 观。 | | | | （1）中国聚丙烯生产 ...