聚烯烃日报 | 2025-11-26 油价大幅下跌，成本端支撑转弱 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6762元/吨（-31），PP主力合约收盘价为6317元/吨（-55），LL华北现货为6800 元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为6900元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6360元/吨（-20），LL华北基差为38元/吨（+31），LL 华东基差为138元/吨（+31）， PP华东基差为43元/吨（+35）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为82.7%（-0.4%），PP开工率为78.3%（-1.3%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为296.4元/吨（-54.1），PP油制生产利润为-463.6元/吨（-54.1），PDH制PP生产利 润为-414.4元/吨（-21.4）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-11.1元/吨（+10.3），PP进口利润为-231.8元/吨（-10.1），PP出口利润为2.8美元/吨（+1.2）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为49.9%（-0.1%），PE下游包装膜开工率为50.9%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.2%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 丙烯 基本面尚未好转 宝城期货 陈栋 当前国内丙烯期货市场面临产能持续扩张与下游需求疲软的双重压力，基本面呈现出供需失衡的特 征。在偏弱产业链逻辑主导下，丙烯期价重心稳步下移。上周丙烯期货主力合约价格一度跌破 5900 元/吨 关口，最低下探至 5851 元/吨。虽然期价展开超跌反弹行情，但上行阻力依然存在。眼下丙烯市场仍处在"投 产周期"与"需求疲软"的双重夹击之下，未来偏弱运行节奏或是主旋律。 国内丙烯供应压力较大 从供给端看，国内丙烯产能仍处于快速扩张周期。2024 年中国丙烯总产能已达 7044 万吨/年，产能利 用率仅为 76.6%，行业整体处于供过于求状态。进入 2025 年，尽管新增产能投放节奏有所放缓，但全年预 计仍有超过 500 万吨的新产能释放，产能扩张的惯性仍在延续。其中，丙烷脱氢（PDH）工艺成为扩产主 力，产能占比已升至 32.3%，主要由民营企业推动，行业集中度较低，竞争格局日趋激烈。然而，PDH 装 置普遍面临成本压力，受国际丙烷价格波动影响，多数装置处于亏损或微利状态，导致行业开工率长期徘 徊在偏低水平，形 ...

叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【塑料数据周报（PP&PE ）】 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-17 主要周度数据变动回顾 | LC国贸期货 | | --- | 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 L L DPE :现货价格持稳，盘面震荡偏弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | （1）本周，我国聚乙烯产量总计在67.37万吨，较上周增加1.98%。（2）中国聚乙烯生产企业产能利用率83.14%，较上周期增加了0.55个百分点。本周期 | 供给 | 中性 | 装置情况来看，周内惠州埃克森、齐鲁石化、中沙石化装置处于检修状态，存量检修多于周内重启，因此产能利用率环比上涨。 | | | （1）中国LLDPE/LDPE下游制品平均开工率较前期+1.64%。其中农膜整体开工率较前期+2.75%；PE包装膜开工率较前期+0.52%。（ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - PE shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The high supply may continue to suppress the upside space of the polyethylene market, and it will mainly maintain a volatile consolidation pattern in the short - term. PP still has supply - demand contradictions, with the cost support strengthening slightly but still having a loosening expectation, and the market will continue to show a wide - range volatile trend. The supply surplus pressure may suppress the upward rebound space [3]. - The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading; for inter - period trading, conduct a sell - near - buy - far spread for L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 at high prices; there is no recommendation for inter - variety trading [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Price and Basis - The closing price of the L main contract is 6,818 yuan/ton (+30), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 6,480 yuan/ton (+20). The LL spot price in North China is 6,800 yuan/ton (+0), the LL spot price in East China is 6,850 yuan/ton (+0), and the PP spot price in East China is 6,480 yuan/ton (+0). The LL basis in North China is - 18 yuan/ton (-30), the LL basis in East China is 32 yuan/ton (-30), and the PP basis in East China is 0 yuan/ton (-20) [1]. 3.1.2 Upstream Supply - The PE operating rate is 83.1% (+0.5%), and the PP operating rate is 79.6% (+1.8%) [1]. 3.1.3 Production Profit - The PE oil - based production profit is 288.4 yuan/ton (+187.2), the PP oil - based production profit is - 321.6 yuan/ton (+187.2), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 219.6 yuan/ton (-113.8) [1]. 3.1.4 Import and Export - The LL import profit is - 29.4 yuan/ton (+43.1), the PP import profit is - 185.3 yuan/ton (-19.7), and the PP export profit is - 3.3 US dollars/ton (+2.5) [2]. 3.1.5 Downstream Demand - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 50.0% (+0.0%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 50.4% (-0.4%), the PP downstream woven plastic operating rate is 44.2% (-0.2%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 62.6% (+0.2%) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 PE - Supply: The supply pressure is continuously high. Newly added maintenance of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical Line 1 and Zhongsha Petrochemical linear device, but the maintenance devices are restarting one after another, and the PE operating rate is continuously increasing. In addition, the newly added production capacity of Guangxi Petrochemical is gradually being released [3]. - Demand: The overall downstream operating rate of PE has decreased month - on - month. The increase in the agricultural film operating rate has slowed down, and the demand is expected to shrink after late November. The packaging film operating rate has decreased month - on - month, and the overall demand follow - up is still limited [3]. - Cost: The oil price has rebounded slightly after a decline, but the rebound space is limited due to supply - demand pressure, and the PE oil - based cost support is insufficient [3]. 3.2.2 PP - Supply: There is still an oversupply pattern. The 400,000 - ton new device of Guangxi Petrochemical has been put into trial production, some devices are under maintenance, and some temporary maintenance has alleviated the market supply pressure to a certain extent, but the improvement of the supply - side oversupply pattern is still limited [3]. - Demand: The overall downstream operating rate is gradually weakening, mainly replenishing inventory on a rigid basis at low prices. The demand pull of the e - commerce festival is less than that of the same period, and the demand support is relatively limited [3]. - Cost: The international oil price fluctuates widely, the external propane price rebounds slightly, and the PP cost support strengthens slightly but still has a loosening expectation [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The polyolefin market is characterized by an overall pattern of oscillation and consolidation. The PE market maintains an oscillation and consolidation pattern, while the PP market shows an oscillation and weakening trend in the short - term. The cost support has strengthened slightly, but the upward movement is still restricted by supply - demand factors [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,788 yuan/ton (+28), and that of the PP main contract is 6,460 yuan/ton (+31). The spot prices of LL in North China and East China are 6,800 yuan/ton (+0) and 6,850 yuan/ton (+0) respectively. The spot price of PP in East China is 6,480 yuan/ton (-20). The basis of LL in North China and East China is 12 yuan/ton (-28) and 62 yuan/ton (-28) respectively, and the basis of PP in East China is 20 yuan/ton (-51) [2] - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 82.6% (+1.7%), and the PP operating rate is 77.8% (+0.7%) [2] - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is 101.2 yuan/ton (-82.1), the PP oil - based production profit is - 488.8 yuan/ton (-82.1), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 105.8 yuan/ton (+1.9) [2] - **Imports and Exports**: The LL import profit is - 72.5 yuan/ton (+2.5), the PP import profit is - 165.6 yuan/ton (+2.4), and the PP export profit is - 5.7 US dollars/ton (-0.3) [2] - **Downstream Demand**: The operating rate of PE downstream agricultural film is 50.0% (+0.4%), the operating rate of PE downstream packaging film is 50.8% (-0.5%), the operating rate of PP downstream plastic weaving is 44.5% (+0.3%), and the operating rate of PP downstream BOPP film is 62.5% (+0.9%) [2] 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand persists. The supply pressure is large due to high operating rates, new capacity releases, and some device restarts. The downstream demand is limited, with the agricultural film's demand expected to shrink and the packaging film's operating rate declining. The cost support from oil prices is weak, and PE is expected to maintain an oscillation and consolidation pattern in the short - term [3] - **PP**: There are still supply - demand contradictions. The cost support has strengthened slightly, but the supply surplus pattern remains. The downstream demand has a slow recovery, and the demand support is limited. PP is expected to continue an oscillation and weakening pattern in the short - term, but the downward drive is also limited [4] 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach; the market may maintain a bottom - oscillation pattern in the short - term [5] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Consider reverse arbitrage when the L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 spreads are high [5] - **Inter - commodity Spread**: No relevant strategy provided [5]

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-11-12 煤价回落明显，成本端受拖累 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6760元/吨（-42），PP主力合约收盘价为6429元/吨（-51），LL华北现货为6800 元/吨（+50），LL华东现货为6850元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6500元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为40元/吨（+92），LL 华东基差为90元/吨（+42）， PP华东基差为71元/吨（+51）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为82.6%（+1.7%），PP开工率为77.8%（+0.7%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为183.3元/吨（-100.9），PP油制生产利润为-406.7元/吨（-100.9），PDH制PP生产 利润为-107.7元/吨（-16.9）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-75.0元/吨（-67.4），PP进口利润为-168.0元/吨（+131.1），PP出口利润为-5.4美元/吨（-0.3）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为50.0%（+0.4%），PE下游包装膜开工率为50.8%（-0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.5%（+0.3%），PP下游BOPP膜 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - The core contradictions affecting the propylene trend include the possible repeated submission of "anti-involution" with no actual progress, the susceptibility of spot prices to individual device fluctuations, sufficient supply of the main downstream PP with weak demand, and the low and weak external propane market with continuous losses in PDH profits [2] - There are both positive and negative factors in the propylene market. Positive factors include device overhauls leading to a rebound in spot prices, while negative factors include high supply despite PDH losses and weak downstream PP demand [3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The predicted monthly price range for propylene is 5700 - 6200 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.1261 and a 3 - year historical volatility percentage of 0.6133 [1] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short propylene futures (PL2603) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is between 6000 - 6200 yuan/ton and sell call options (PL2601C6200) at a 25% hedging ratio when the price is between 60 - 80 [1] - For procurement management with low regular inventory, it is recommended to long propylene futures (PL2603) at a 25% hedging ratio when the price is between 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton and sell put options (PL2601P5800) at a 25% hedging ratio when the price is between 60 - 80 [1] Industry Data - On November 11, 2025, Brent crude oil closed at $65.09/barrel, up $1.15 from the previous day and $0.74 from the previous week; WTI crude oil closed at $60.99/barrel, up $0.94 from the previous day and $0.56 from the previous week [6] - The price of propylene in the Shandong region was 5765 yuan/ton on November 11, 2025, unchanged from the previous day and down 70 yuan/ton from the previous week; in the East China region, it was 5875 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week [6] - The profit of PDH (using FEI) was - 275.32 yuan/ton on November 11, 2025, down 60.06 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 32.47 yuan/ton from the previous week; the profit of PDH (using CP) was - 216.73 yuan/ton, down 56.42 yuan/ton from the previous day and down 25.62 yuan/ton from the previous week [6] Seasonal Price Charts - There are seasonal price charts for upstream raw materials (such as Brent, WTI, NWE NAP, etc.), mid - stream propylene prices (such as in Shandong, East China, etc.), downstream prices (such as PP, epoxy propane, etc.), and盘面 prices (such as propylene month - spreads, PP - PL spreads, etc.) [8][20][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polypropylene is in a phase of downward oscillation, and the price center is expected to decline in the later stage. The PP market is facing supply pressure due to new capacity coming online during the production capacity expansion period and high existing production loads. Although demand has entered the peak season, it fails to meet expectations and is unable to absorb the high output. As a result, the price of polypropylene may continue to move downward [7]. - The price of polypropylene continued to fall this week, with the PP01 contract dropping below 6,500 yuan/ton. The domestic commodity market sentiment has weakened again, putting pressure on commodity prices. The fundamentals of polyolefins have not changed significantly, with supply at a high level and demand in the peak season but lacking sufficient support [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The spot price of plastic standard products has also declined significantly, with the basis strengthening slightly. The East China basis strengthened by 20 to around -100 yuan/ton, the North China basis strengthened by 10 to around -170 yuan/ton, and the South China basis strengthened by 30 to around -100 yuan/ton. The non - standard basis of plastics has a stronger trend than the standard basis [18][19]. - **Regional and Non - standard Spread**: The North China - East China regional spread has fallen to a low level, and the South China - East China regional spread has oscillated. Among the non - standard spreads, the injection molding - drawing spread and the low - melt copolymer - drawing spread have both strengthened, indicating that non - standard products are relatively firm [33][34]. - **Disk Spread**: The 1 - 5 monthly spread has further declined to around -110, at a low level over the years. The L - PP01 spread has remained above 300, and the PP - 701 spread is at a high level, suggesting greater supply pressure for PP. The methanol market pattern is weak, with high imports leading to a record - high port inventory, and the methanol price has continued to decline [52]. 3.2 Domestic Production - end Profits and Supply - **Production Profits**: This week, the oil price has slightly oscillated downward to around $63.5 per barrel (Brent). The oil - based production end profit is at a relatively good level in recent years. In the medium to long term, the supply in North Asia from the Middle East and the United States is expected to increase, putting pressure on the PDH - based PP price, but the PDH - based profit has improved month - on - month. The power coal price has continued to rise, the CTO profit has deteriorated but remains at a high level, and the inland MTO profit has deteriorated under pressure [68]. - **Domestic Production Volume and Load**: In 2025, as of October, the new domestic PP production capacity has totaled 4.155 million tons, with a production capacity growth rate of 9.31%. The planned production capacity for 2025 is 4.905 million tons, and the estimated annual production capacity growth rate is 11%. This week, the PP production volume was 796,500 tons (+7,300 tons), the operating rate was 77.78% (+0.72%), and the supply loss volume was 228,400 tons [99][100][113]. - **Production Scheduling Ratio**: An increase in the drawing production scheduling ratio may indicate that the short - term standard product is stronger than the non - standard product, but the medium - term supply pressure may increase [124]. 3.3 US Dollar Price and Import - Export Profits - **US Dollar Price and Spread**: The prices in Northwest Europe and the Americas have fallen from high levels. The Asian price has continued to be weak. The spread between CFR China and the overseas market has rebounded [135]. - **Import - Export Profits**: Currently, overseas demand is weak, and inquiries are limited. With the increase in shipping costs, enterprises have offered discounts on exports to promote transactions. In terms of imports, although China's price is relatively low globally, the weak external demand has led to a decline in the purchasing capacity of overseas buyers, resulting in an increase in goods flowing to China [152]. 3.4 Downstream Profits and Operating Rates - **Downstream Operating Rates**: This week, the overall downstream operating rate was 53.14%, a month - on - month increase of 0.52%. The operating rate of plastic weaving increased by 0.26%, the BOPP operating rate increased by 0.88%, and the operating rate of PP pipes increased by 0.5%. In the future, the demand for terminal products will be slightly supported by the e - commerce festival and the cold weather, but the peak season is coming to an end [155]. 3.5 Inventory - Production enterprise inventories have increased by 48,000 tons to 599,900 tons, with Sinopec and PetroChina inventories increasing by 163,000 tons. Traders' inventories have increased by 15,000 tons, and port inventories have decreased by 700 tons [216].

Core Viewpoint - The polypropylene (PP) prices have declined unexpectedly after the traditional peak demand season, primarily due to weaker-than-expected demand and falling oil prices, leading the industry into a state of overall losses [1][5][11] Demand and Supply Analysis - The traditional peak demand season, known as "Golden September and Silver October," did not exhibit significant characteristics this year, with the global economic downturn impacting PP's essential demand [1][9] - In September, domestic plastic product output was 7.303 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.54%, marking two consecutive months of decline [1] - BOPP demand has shown limited improvement, with downstream sectors such as e-commerce, food packaging, and clothing packaging underperforming expectations, resulting in a 15% year-on-year decrease in orders for injection molding enterprises [3] - The PP industry is experiencing severe oversupply, with many companies, particularly PDH enterprises, reducing production or shutting down due to losses, which may help alleviate inventory pressure [9][11] Price and Profitability Trends - Oil prices have significantly dropped, with WTI crude oil falling from $78 per barrel to $55 per barrel, a nearly 30% decline, which has negatively impacted chemical products, including PP [5] - As of early November, the losses for various PP production methods are as follows: oil-based PP at 550 yuan/ton, coal-based PP at 300 yuan/ton, methanol-based PP at 1000 yuan/ton, propylene-based PP at 250 yuan/ton, and PDH-based PP at 800 yuan/ton [5] - The overall profitability of PP has been compressed, with the industry entering a comprehensive loss state [5][11] Production and Operational Insights - The PP maintenance season primarily occurs from April to July, with a notable increase in operating rates post-August, reaching over 85%. However, unplanned maintenance has led to a decline in operating rates below 85% in September and further down to 80% by the end of October, nearing historical lows [6][9] - The expansion of PP production capacity has mainly occurred in the first half of the year, resulting in limited market impact from new capacities in the second half, thus alleviating supply pressure [9][10] Trade Dynamics - In September, China's polypropylene imports reached 290,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 17.49%, while cumulative imports from January to September totaled 2.4578 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.01% [10] - Conversely, September's polypropylene exports were 237,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.88%, with cumulative exports from January to September amounting to 2.3411 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 28.27% [10] - The changing import-export dynamics have somewhat alleviated domestic supply-demand imbalances, with some months seeing higher export volumes than imports, indicating a potential shift from a net importer to a net exporter of PP [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - For LLDPE, the short - term market is expected to be volatile with no obvious driving factors. Supply is neutral, demand is positive, inventory is negative, basis is neutral, profit is negative, valuation is negative, and macro - policy is negative [2]. - For PP, the short - term market is also expected to be volatile with no clear drivers. Supply is neutral, demand is positive, inventory is negative, basis is neutral, profit is positive, valuation is negative, and macro - policy is negative [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 LLDPE Analysis - **Supply**: This week, China's polyethylene production was 643,500 tons, a 0.72% decrease from last week. The capacity utilization rate was 80.87%, a 0.59 - percentage - point decrease. Some plants were under maintenance, increasing the maintenance loss [2]. - **Demand**: The average downstream product start - up rate of LLDPE/LDPE increased by 1.64%. The overall agricultural film start - up rate increased by 2.75%, and the PE packaging film start - up rate increased by 0.52%. In September, China's polyethylene imports were 1.0222 million tons, a 10.07% year - on - year decrease and a 7.58% month - on - month increase [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 416,000 tons, a 19.16% month - on - month decrease. The social sample warehouse inventory was 527,400 tons, a 3.30% month - on - month decrease and a 9.18% year - on - year decrease. The import cargo warehouse inventory also decreased [2]. - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around 309, and the futures price is at a discount [2]. - **Profit**: The costs of oil - based, coal - based, and ethane - based production increased, while the methanol - based cost decreased. The main reason for the increase in oil prices is the US sanctions on Russia and the decline in US commercial crude oil inventories [2]. - **Valuation**: The spot price and the absolute futures price are neutral, and the near - month contract is at a deep discount [2]. - **Macro - policy**: The macro - sentiment has faded, and trading has returned to the fundamentals, with the futures price showing a weak and volatile trend [2]. 3.2 PP Analysis - **Supply**: This week, China's polypropylene production was 789,200 tons, a 1.49% increase from last week and a 17.79% increase from the same period last year. The average capacity utilization rate was 77.06%, a 1.12% increase [3]. - **Demand**: The average downstream start - up rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 52.61%. The demand for medical products and cold - chain packaging increased, and the BOPP industry's start - up rate increased steadily. However, the plastic - weaving industry was affected by rainy weather [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese polypropylene producers was 595,100 tons, a 6.80% month - on - month decrease. The port sample inventory decreased by 2.25% month - on - month, and the trader sample inventory decreased by 7.80% month - on - month [3]. - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around - 20, and the futures price is around par [3]. - **Profit**: This week, the profits of coal - based, methanol - based, and externally - purchased propylene - based PP production improved, while the profits of oil - based and PDH - based PP production declined [3]. - **Valuation**: The spot price and the absolute futures price are neutral, and the near - month contract is at a discount [3]. - **Macro - policy**: The macro - sentiment has faded, and trading has returned to the fundamentals, with the futures price showing a weak and volatile trend [3]. 3.3 Main Weekly Data Changes - **Prices**: PP futures price decreased by 1.08%, PE futures price decreased by 1.00%, LLDPE CFR decreased by 1.22%, and ethylene CFR decreased by 3.85% [5]. - **Production and Start - up Rates**: PP production decreased by 5.22%, PE production decreased by 0.72%, PP start - up rate increased by 4.83%, and PE start - up rate decreased by 0.73% [5]. - **Inventory**: PP factory inventory decreased by 5.88%, PE social inventory increased by 0.10%, HDPE social inventory decreased by 3.16% [5].