聚烯烃期货市场分析
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20260128申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃(LL&PP)-20260128
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2026-01-28 01:15
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The polyolefin futures closed in the positive territory overnight. From a fundamental perspective, the market is currently focused on the expectation of supply improvement, and the transmission of macro factors to commodities has increased. The rebound in international crude oil prices also provides cost - side support for chemicals. Overall, the current driving force of the polyolefin spot market is relatively limited, and the market is more concerned about the driving rhythm of macro factors [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Change**: For linear low - density polyethylene (LL), the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September were 6947, 6899, and 6930 respectively, with price drops of - 27, - 36, and - 32 and percentage drops of - 0.39%, - 0.52%, and - 0.46% compared to the prices two days ago. For polypropylene (PP), the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September were 6676, 6709, and 6745 respectively, with price drops of - 40, - 28, and - 33 and percentage drops of - 0.60%, - 0.42%, and - 0.49% compared to the prices two days ago [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September were 76, 496965, and 37005, while the open interests were 228, 520760, and 70979 with increases of 41, 5747, and 1074 respectively. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September were 194, 408475, and 29237, and the open interests were 2134, 525931, and 104442 with changes of + 2, + 4800, and - 2450 respectively [2] - **Spread**: The current spreads for LL (January - May, May - September, September - January) were 48, - 31, - 17 compared with the previous values of 39, - 27, - 12. For PP, the current spreads (January - May, May - September, September - January) were - 33, - 36, 69 compared with the previous values of - 21, - 41, 62 [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2304 yuan/ton, 6405 yuan/ton, 619 US dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6480 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous values, methanol futures decreased from 2346 yuan/ton, Shandong propylene increased from 6350 yuan/ton, South China propane decreased from 631 US dollars/ton, PP recycled materials remained unchanged, North China powder materials decreased from 6510 yuan/ton, and mulch film remained unchanged [2] - **Mid - stream Market**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6800 - 7150 yuan/ton, 6750 - 7050 yuan/ton, and 6950 - 7250 yuan/ton respectively. The previous price ranges were 6800 - 7100 yuan/ton, 6750 - 7100 (also 8100 - 8250 in North China), and 6950 - 7200 yuan/ton. For PP, the current and previous price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets remained the same at 6500 - 6650 yuan/ton, 6500 - 6550 yuan/ton, and 6450 - 6700 yuan/ton respectively [2] News - On Tuesday (January 27), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for March 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was 62.39 US dollars per barrel, up 1.76 US dollars or 2.90% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 60.14 - 62.63 US dollars. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for March 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was 67.57 US dollars per barrel, up 1.98 US dollars or 3.02% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 65 - 67.78 US dollars [2]