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20251128申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃(LL&PP)-20251128
Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Polyolefin futures continued to be weak. Spot prices: some linear LL from PetroChina were lowered by 200, while Sinopec kept stable; some拉丝 PP from PetroChina were lowered by 50, with Sinopec remaining stable. Downstream demand had a high overall开工 rate with steady release, but market sentiment was affected by the weakness of crude oil and commodities. Polyolefin's own valuation was low in the short - term, and future focus should be on marginal consumption, supply, and production scheduling levels [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6699, 6763, and 6804 respectively, with changes of - 8, - 5, and - 8 and percentage changes of - 0.12%, - 0.07%, and - 0.12%. For PP, the prices were 6295, 6393, and 6435, with changes of 30, 26, and 5 and percentage changes of 0.48%, 0.41%, and 0.08% [2] - **Trading Volume**: For LL, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 270004, 103306, and 1204. For PP, they were 306411, 95171, and 2239 [2] - **Open Interest**: For LL, the open interests for January, May, and September contracts were 495726, 232562, and 4234, with changes of - 1873, 10864, and 376. For PP, they were 557253, 263547, and 12254, with changes of - 29319, 19590, and 661 [2] - **Spreads**: For LL, the spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 64, - 41, and 105 (current values), compared to - 61, - 44, and 105 (previous values). For PP, they were - 98, - 42, and 140 (current values), compared to - 102, - 63, and 165 (previous values) [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products**: Methanol futures were at 2118 yuan/ton (previous value 2100), Shandong propylene at 6050 yuan/ton (previous value 6075), South China propane at 574 dollars/ton (previous value 564), PP recycled materials at 5600 yuan/ton (unchanged), North China powder at 6140 yuan/ton (unchanged), and mulch film at 8700 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2] - **Mid - stream**: For LL, the prices in East China, North China, and South China markets were 6900 - 7350, 6700 - 7000, and 7000 - 7350. For PP, they were 6250 - 6450, 6150 - 6350, and 6350 - 6550 [2] Information - Due to the US Thanksgiving holiday, trading was light. International oil prices continued to rise in volatility. WTI for January 2026 was at 59.10 dollars/barrel in electronic trading, up 0.45 dollars or 0.77%. Brent crude for January 2026 settled at 63.34 dollars/barrel, up 0.21 dollars or 0.33% [2]
20251119申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃(LL&PP)-20251119
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polyolefin futures mainly declined. On the spot side, Sinopec lowered the price of linear LL by 50 in some areas, while PetroChina kept it stable. For drawn PP, both Sinopec and PetroChina maintained stable prices. Fundamentally, the overall operating rate of the downstream demand side is at a high level, and demand is steadily being released. However, market sentiment is still affected by the weakness of crude oil and commodities as a whole. In the short term, the valuation of polyolefins themselves is at a low level, and the market may continue to fluctuate at a low level in the future [2]. Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September were 6785, 6852, and 6906 respectively, with price drops of -58, -50, and -43 and declines of -0.85%, -0.72%, and -0.62% respectively. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September were 6392, 6497, and 6546 respectively, with price drops of -75, -68, and -60 and declines of -1.16%, -1.04%, and -0.91% respectively [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September were 260592, 69005, and 445 respectively, and the open interests were 548344, 131144, and 2323 respectively, with changes of 6049, 16030, and 69 respectively. The trading volumes of PP for January, May, and September were 314026, 61784, and 1579 respectively, and the open interests were 638372, 159944, and 8789 respectively, with changes of 5494, 2063, and -345 respectively [2]. - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -67, -54, and 121 respectively, compared with the previous values of -59, -47, and 106. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -105, -49, and 154 respectively, compared with the previous values of -98, -41, and 139 [2]. Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2037 yuan/ton, 5885 yuan/ton, 560 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6200 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. The previous prices were 2034 yuan/ton, 5845 yuan/ton, 555 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6230 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Mid - stream Market**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6900 - 7450 yuan/ton, 6800 - 7050 yuan/ton, and 7050 - 7400 yuan/ton respectively. The previous price ranges were 6950 - 7450 yuan/ton, 6800 - 7100 yuan/ton, and 7050 - 7400 yuan/ton respectively. The current price ranges of PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6250 - 6500 yuan/ton, 6250 - 6450 yuan/ton, and 6400 - 6550 yuan/ton respectively. The previous price ranges were 6250 - 6500 yuan/ton, 6250 - 6450 yuan/ton, and 6450 - 6550 yuan/ton respectively [2]. News - Due to Ukraine's attack on a refinery in a European country and the sanctions measures to take effect in the US this weekend, market concerns about distillate supply have intensified. The soaring diesel price has pushed up the fluctuations of European and American crude oil futures. As of the close on November 18, WTI in December 2025 rose 0.83 to 60.74 dollars/barrel, an increase of 1.39%; Brent crude oil in January 2026 rose 0.69 to 64.89 dollars/barrel, an increase of 1.07%. China's crude oil futures SC main contract 2601 closed up 1.5 yuan/barrel to 462.3 yuan/barrel [2].