中国原油期货SC
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20251119申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃(LL&PP)-20251119
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-11-19 02:13
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polyolefin futures mainly declined. On the spot side, Sinopec lowered the price of linear LL by 50 in some areas, while PetroChina kept it stable. For drawn PP, both Sinopec and PetroChina maintained stable prices. Fundamentally, the overall operating rate of the downstream demand side is at a high level, and demand is steadily being released. However, market sentiment is still affected by the weakness of crude oil and commodities as a whole. In the short term, the valuation of polyolefins themselves is at a low level, and the market may continue to fluctuate at a low level in the future [2]. Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September were 6785, 6852, and 6906 respectively, with price drops of -58, -50, and -43 and declines of -0.85%, -0.72%, and -0.62% respectively. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September were 6392, 6497, and 6546 respectively, with price drops of -75, -68, and -60 and declines of -1.16%, -1.04%, and -0.91% respectively [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September were 260592, 69005, and 445 respectively, and the open interests were 548344, 131144, and 2323 respectively, with changes of 6049, 16030, and 69 respectively. The trading volumes of PP for January, May, and September were 314026, 61784, and 1579 respectively, and the open interests were 638372, 159944, and 8789 respectively, with changes of 5494, 2063, and -345 respectively [2]. - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -67, -54, and 121 respectively, compared with the previous values of -59, -47, and 106. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -105, -49, and 154 respectively, compared with the previous values of -98, -41, and 139 [2]. Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2037 yuan/ton, 5885 yuan/ton, 560 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6200 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. The previous prices were 2034 yuan/ton, 5845 yuan/ton, 555 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6230 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Mid - stream Market**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6900 - 7450 yuan/ton, 6800 - 7050 yuan/ton, and 7050 - 7400 yuan/ton respectively. The previous price ranges were 6950 - 7450 yuan/ton, 6800 - 7100 yuan/ton, and 7050 - 7400 yuan/ton respectively. The current price ranges of PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6250 - 6500 yuan/ton, 6250 - 6450 yuan/ton, and 6400 - 6550 yuan/ton respectively. The previous price ranges were 6250 - 6500 yuan/ton, 6250 - 6450 yuan/ton, and 6450 - 6550 yuan/ton respectively [2]. News - Due to Ukraine's attack on a refinery in a European country and the sanctions measures to take effect in the US this weekend, market concerns about distillate supply have intensified. The soaring diesel price has pushed up the fluctuations of European and American crude oil futures. As of the close on November 18, WTI in December 2025 rose 0.83 to 60.74 dollars/barrel, an increase of 1.39%; Brent crude oil in January 2026 rose 0.69 to 64.89 dollars/barrel, an increase of 1.07%. China's crude oil futures SC main contract 2601 closed up 1.5 yuan/barrel to 462.3 yuan/barrel [2].