1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, polyethylene (PE) shows a range - bound pattern, mainly driven by macro sentiment and cost factors, with limited fundamental drivers. In the long - term, the supply - demand pressure of PE is difficult to resolve, and the weak pattern is expected to continue [10][11]. - Recently, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for unilateral trading due to numerous macro uncertainties and limited supply - demand drivers of polyolefins [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Cost side: The dual pull of crude oil and coking coal has led to a rebound in the chemical sector. Crude oil prices have rebounded due to geopolitical issues, and coking coal has shown a strong upward trend due to supply - side factors [1]. - Supply - demand side: The PE supply pressure continues to increase, while the demand is generally weak in the second half of this year, and the demand growth drive will be more limited in the fourth quarter. PE is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with limited fundamental drivers [2]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Near - term trading logic: Polyolefin prices rebounded this week driven by crude oil and coking coal. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for unilateral trading, and pay attention to macro and cost trends [10]. - Long - term trading expectation: In the long run, the supply of PE is expected to increase further in the fourth quarter, while there is no obvious demand growth driver, so the weak pattern is expected to continue [11]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price range prediction: The price range of polyethylene is predicted to be 6800 - 7200 [17]. - Hedging strategies: Different hedging strategies are provided for inventory management and procurement management, including shorting plastic futures, selling call options, buying plastic futures, and selling put options [17]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Negative information: The 3 - line HDPE unit of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical is expected to start two weeks ahead of schedule [19]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - From Tuesday this week, the plastic futures market showed a bottom - rebound trend, with strong downstream bottom - fishing willingness and a rapid increase in trading volume [20]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend: Driven by the cost side, PE started to rebound from Wednesday [26]. - Capital trend: This week, the open interest changed little, and the market still had a strong bearish sentiment [26]. - Basis structure: The basis of North China and South China weakened slightly, while that of East China strengthened [28]. - Spread structure: The near - term spread structure changed little, and the L1 - 5 spread showed a contango structure [31]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - In the context of weak PE prices, the production profits of all production lines are compressed, and the coal - based production line with the best profit is also on the verge of loss [33]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The current pattern of strong supply and weak demand of PE is difficult to change. The supply pressure will continue to increase, and the demand growth is limited, so the oversupply pattern is difficult to reverse [39]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - The current PE operating rate is 81.46% (- 0.3%), with little change. The supply pressure will continue to increase due to the return of maintenance units and new capacity put into production [43]. 3.5.3 Import - Export and Deduction - Import: The import of PE is expected to increase from the end of October to November due to the weak overseas supply - demand pattern [47]. - Export: Although the export of PE has increased, the overall volume is still small and has little impact on the supply - demand pattern [47]. 3.5.4 Demand - Side and Deduction - The current average operating rate of PE downstream industries is 45.75% (+ 0.83%). The agricultural film industry is in the peak season, but the demand growth of other downstream industries is limited [55].