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布鲁可(00325.HK):新品类及出海持续向好 26年定调聚焦
Ge Long Hui· 2026-01-22 20:37
Company Overview - The company has conducted a recent survey and engaged in in-depth discussions with management regarding strategic reviews, new product performance, and international expansion [1] - In 2025, the company plans to conduct large-scale new product launches to experiment, while in 2026, it aims to focus on trending categories to enhance performance certainty, with a continued emphasis on new product categories and international performance [1] Strategic Focus - In 2026, the company intends to concentrate on key product categories, which is expected to improve quality and efficiency. In 2025, the company explored business boundaries with a global strategy, achieving good performance in the 9.9 yuan market segment, while some categories, such as female-oriented products, did not meet internal targets, leading to resource dispersion and profit drag [1] - The company plans to stabilize the new product launch rhythm and improve the success rate of individual products, while financial maturity and stable personnel size are expected to reveal operational leverage effects [1] - The company anticipates stabilizing and recovering gross margins by controlling the proportion of low-margin products and leveraging scale effects to dilute costs [1] Product Development - The company has successfully cultivated the building block vehicle category, which is expected to drive future growth. In 2026, it plans to maintain a monthly launch rhythm for this category, which is expected to contribute positively to gross margins [1] - The core IP operation for building block figures continues to deepen, with the Transformers series effectively covering price ranges from 9.9 yuan to 249 yuan, while new SKU specifications for Ultraman stimulate demand [1] - The company’s strategy for all demographics is progressing, with an expected increase in the proportion of adult-oriented products in the second half of 2025 [1] International Expansion - The company’s overseas business is expected to continue high growth, with a projected doubling in the second half of 2025. The pricing strategy and product strength have allowed the company to maintain a price advantage despite North American tariff impacts, successfully entering mainstream channels like Walmart [2] - North America is expected to become the largest single overseas market in 2026, while the company plans to expand its presence in Southeast Asia, particularly in Thailand and Vietnam, supported by logistics and warehousing [2] - The European team is still being built, indicating significant future potential in that market [2] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Due to some new products underperforming, the company has lowered its adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 19% and 17% to 650 million yuan and 870 million yuan, respectively, and introduced a new adjusted net profit forecast of 1.07 billion yuan for 2027 [2] - The current price corresponds to 18 and 15 times the adjusted P/E for 2026 and 2027, respectively. The target price has been reduced by 26% to 100 HKD, corresponding to 26 and 20 times the adjusted P/E for 2026 and 2027, indicating a potential upside of 40% from the current price [2]