聚酯下游需求
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聚酯数据日报-20251031
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 03:52
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - PTA prices quickly declined due to the lack of clear news on the "anti - involution" in the PTA industry. Although crude oil prices have been rising, PTA prices only rebounded slightly before. The polyester industry's profit is under pressure from over - capacity caused by new domestic and overseas installations. With cost support from rising crude oil prices and policy - expectation stimulus, PTA prices rebounded rapidly after long - term low - level operation. The downstream polyester operating rate remains above 91%, and recent polyester sales are relatively high. [2] - The inventory of ethylene glycol (MEG) at East China ports is still low, with limited weekly arrivals. Overseas imports of MEG are expected to decline, while domestic installations are putting pressure on prices. Coal - based MEG installations are also resuming. The overall polyester inventory is in good condition, and the downstream weaving load is maintained. However, as the polyester peak season is ending and the crude oil fundamentals are weakening, the polyester market is expected to operate weakly. [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data - **Crude Oil and PTA - Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price dropped from 462.6 yuan/barrel on October 29, 2025, to 458.9 yuan/barrel on October 30, 2025, a decrease of 3.70 yuan/barrel. PTA - SC decreased from 1274.2 yuan/ton to 1235.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39.11 yuan/ton. PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.3790 to 1.3704, a decrease of 0.0087. [2] - **PX**: CFR China PX decreased from 818 to 817, and PX - naphtha spread decreased from 249 to 246. [2] - **PTA**: PTA主力期价 dropped from 4636 yuan/ton to 4570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66.0 yuan/ton. The spot price remained unchanged at 4535 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 170.1 yuan/ton to 164.1 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee decreased from 261.1 yuan/ton to 199.1 yuan/ton. The main - contract basis increased from (76) to (71), and the number of PTA warehouse receipts increased from 48579 to 61295. [2] - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 dropped from 4100 yuan/ton to 4032 yuan/ton, a decrease of 68.0 yuan/ton. MEG - naphtha was (120.62) yuan/ton on October 29 and (120.81) yuan/ton on October 30. MEG inner - market price decreased from 4152 to 4147, and the main - contract basis decreased from 83 to 78. [2] - **Industry Operating Rates**: PX, PTA, MEG operating rates and polyester load all remained unchanged at 86.21%, 80.09%, 64.41%, and 89.28% respectively. [2] - **Polyester Products**: POY150D/48F, FDY150D/96F, DTY150D/48F prices remained unchanged. POY, FDY, DTY cash flows increased by 1.0 respectively. The long - filament sales rate decreased from 48% to 43%. The price of 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber decreased from 6440 to 6430, and the cash flow decreased from 272 to 263. The short - fiber sales rate decreased from 43% to 42%. The price of semi - bright polyester chips remained unchanged at 5565, and the cash flow increased from (53) to (52). The chip sales rate increased from 37% to 46%. [2] 2. Device Maintenance - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked. [2]