Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - After the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, the oil market entered a phase of rest and consolidation. The decrease in US EIA crude oil inventories and significant drawdowns in refined oil products supported a slight increase in oil prices. PX prices are close to pre - rally levels, with solid bottom support due to low inventory. PX's future profitability depends on unexpected factors. PTA prices declined slightly due to concerns about downstream polyester factory production cuts, with its inventory in a downward absolute - value trend but at a near - five - year high relative value. Polyester products are expected to follow the decline in oil prices. The polyester bottle - chip market has a mixed supply - side price trend, with expected tightening of market supply and potential improvement in downstream demand. The polyester industry chain is expected to fluctuate with costs, with PX, PTA, and PR all expected to move in a volatile manner [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On June 26, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settled at $65.24 per barrel, up 0.49%; Brent crude oil futures settled at $67.73 per barrel, up 0.07%. Naphtha spot price in CFR Japan was $568.75 per ton, down 1.81%. Isomer - grade xylene FOB Korea was $725 per ton, down 0.21%. PX CFR China Main Port was $853 per ton, up 0.51% [1] - **PTA**: CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4,770 yuan per ton, down 0.42%; settlement price was 4,762 yuan per ton, down 0.38%. Near - month contract closing price was 4,976 yuan per ton, down 0.72%; settlement price was 4,974 yuan per ton, down 0.80%. Domestic PTA spot price was 5,023 yuan per ton, down 0.53%. CCFEI PTA domestic price index was 5,025 yuan per ton, down 0.46%; foreign price index was $642 per ton (as of June 25), down 0.93%. Near - far month spread was 212 yuan per ton, a decrease of 22 yuan; basis was 255 yuan per ton, a decrease of 3 yuan [1] - **PX**: CZCE PX main - contract closing price was 6,722 yuan per ton, down 0.53%; settlement price was 6,710 yuan per ton, down 0.62%. Near - month contract closing price was 6,854 yuan per ton, down 0.93%; settlement price was 6,848 yuan per ton, down 1.50%. Domestic PX spot price was 6,889 yuan per ton, unchanged. PX CFR Taiwan was $853 per ton, up 0.35%; FOB Korea was $828 per ton, up 0.36%. PXN spread was $284.25 per ton, up 5.50%; PX - MX spread was $128 per ton, up 4.77%. Basis was 167 yuan per ton, an increase of 36 yuan [1] - **PR**: CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 5,930 yuan per ton, down 0.50%; settlement price was 5,936 yuan per ton, down 0.30%. Near - month contract closing price was 6,010 yuan per ton, down 0.56%; settlement price was 6,024 yuan per ton, down 0.33%. East China market polyester bottle - chip price was 6,050 yuan per ton, down 0.17%; South China market was 6,120 yuan per ton, down 0.33%. East China market basis was 120 yuan per ton, an increase of 20 yuan; South China market basis was 190 yuan per ton, an increase of 10 yuan [1] - **Downstream**: On June 26, 2025, CCFEI polyester DTY price index was 9,150 yuan per ton, down 0.54%; POY was 7,425 yuan per ton, down 0.34%; FDY68D and FDY150D were both 7,450 yuan per ton, unchanged; polyester staple fiber was 6,785 yuan per ton, unchanged; polyester chip was 5,925 yuan per ton, down 0.17%; bottle - grade chip was 6,050 yuan per ton, down 0.17% [2] Production and Operation Information - **Operating Rate**: On June 26, 2025, PX operating rate was 80.43%, down 2.27 percentage points; PTA factory load rate was 78.56%, unchanged; polyester factory load rate was 89.35%, down 0.66 percentage points; bottle - chip factory load rate was 80.20%, down 2.26 percentage points; Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load rate was 65.10%, down 2.54 percentage points [1] - **Sales Rate**: On June 26, 2025, polyester filament sales rate was 28%, up 6 percentage points; polyester staple fiber sales rate was 43%, down 12 percentage points; polyester chip sales rate was 40%, down 6 percentage points [1] Device Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA plant in the northwest plans to restart between May 15 and 20. A 1 - million - ton PX plant in Shandong has started its scheduled maintenance, maintaining a tight - balance situation in the domestic market [2] Trading Strategy - PTA's TA2509 contract closed at 4,770 yuan per ton, down 0.21%, with a trading volume of 1.06 million lots. PX's PX2509 contract closed at 6,722 yuan per ton, down 0.44%, with a trading volume of 290,400 lots. PR's 2509 contract closed at 5,930 yuan per ton, down 0.40%, with a trading volume of 60,700 lots. The polyester industry chain is expected to fluctuate with costs, with PX, PTA, and PR all expected to move in a volatile manner (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2]