Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical tensions drive up oil prices, but macro - level financial market shocks cause wide - range oil price fluctuations. PX prices return to normal after the hype of domestic PX device maintenance news. With low PX inventory, the price has strong bottom support, and its future performance depends on unexpected factors. PX is in an advantageous position in the industrial chain due to the rigid demand of new PTA production devices. As the downstream demand peak season approaches, polyester start - up is gradually increasing [2]. - Crude oil is weakly oscillating. PTA has sufficient spot supply, and its spot average price drops while the spot basis weakens. PTA processing fees are in a low - level range, and unplanned device maintenance can't continuously boost prices. As the traditional peak season approaches, the polyester start - up load may increase, and the de - stocking volume is expected to expand. The downstream polyester factories' procurement enthusiasm for PTA spot is low, and the polyester inventory is transferred downward, but the equity inventory is expected to change little. The overall sales of downstream polyester products are dull, and there is no clear signal for the start of the demand peak season. PTA will move in an oscillating manner, with cost as the dominant factor [2]. - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets remains stable. Polyester raw materials and bottle - chip futures fluctuate slightly. The supply - side quotes of bottle - chips are mostly stable, and downstream terminals follow up cautiously with a light trading atmosphere. The supply - side start - up of bottle - chips is stable, with sufficient market spot supply, and market demand is weakening [2]. - With the weakening of cost support, TA2601, PX2511, and PR2511 contracts all closed lower. OPEC and its production - limiting allies are expected to dominate the overnight crude oil market. As the downstream peak season has not started, PX, PTA, and PR are expected to run weakly [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Crude Oil**: On September 3, 2025, the futures settlement price (continuous) of WTI crude oil was $63.97 per barrel, down 2.47% from the previous value; the futures settlement price (continuous) of Brent crude oil was $67.60 per barrel, down 2.23% [1]. - **Upstream Products**: The spot price (mid - price) of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $605.00 per ton, up 0.75%; the spot price (mid - price) of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $687.00 per ton, up 0.37%; the spot price of p - xylene (PX, CFR China Main Port) was $843.00 per ton, down 0.35% [1]. - **PTA**: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,732 yuan per ton, down 0.50%; the settlement price was 4,754 yuan per ton, down 0.46%. The closing price of the CZCE TA near - month contract was 4,660 yuan per ton, down 0.94%; the settlement price was 4,692 yuan per ton, down 0.47%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4,720 yuan per ton, down 0.17%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,700 yuan per ton, down 0.57%; the CCFEI price index of external PTA was $632.00 per ton, down 0.16% [1]. - **PX**: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,810 yuan per ton, down 0.35%; the settlement price was 6,834 yuan per ton, down 0.47%. The closing price and settlement price of the CZCE PX near - month contract were both 6,714 yuan per ton, with no change. The domestic PX spot price was 6,742 yuan per ton, with no change. The spot price (mid - price) of PX (CFR China Taiwan) was $844.00 per ton, down 0.35%; the spot price (mid - price) of PX (FOB Korea) was $819.00 per ton, down 0.36% [1]. - **PR**: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,892 yuan per ton, down 0.30%; the settlement price was 5,924 yuan per ton, down 0.17%. The closing price and settlement price of the CZCE PR near - month contract were both 5,818 yuan per ton, with no change. The market price (mainstream price) of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5,860 yuan per ton, down 0.34%; in the South China market, it was 5,940 yuan per ton, down 0.17% [1]. - **Downstream Products**: The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY, POY, FDY68D, FDY150D, and polyester chips remained unchanged on September 3, 2025. The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,510 yuan per ton, down 0.15%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,860 yuan per ton, down 0.34% [2]. Production and Sales Information - **开工率**: On September 3, 2025, the start - up rate of the PX in the polyester industrial chain was 82.59%, with no change; the PTA industrial chain load rate of PTA factories was 74.26%, with no change; the PTA industrial chain load rate of polyester factories was 87.99%, with no change; the PTA industrial chain load rate of bottle - chip factories was 73.27%, with no change; the PTA industrial chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 62.03%, with no change [1]. - **产销率**: The sales rate of polyester filament was 50.83%, up 12.80 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 41.19%, down 1.06 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 45.48%, down 15.56 percentage points [1]. Device Information - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device of Jiaxing Petrochemical restarted on August 22, 2025. Two 5 - million - ton PTA devices of Hengli Huizhou unexpectedly shut down from August 21 to August 23, and the restart time is to be determined [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - After the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, the oil market entered a phase of rest and consolidation. The decrease in US EIA crude oil inventories and significant drawdowns in refined oil products supported a slight increase in oil prices. PX prices are close to pre - rally levels, with solid bottom support due to low inventory. PX's future profitability depends on unexpected factors. PTA prices declined slightly due to concerns about downstream polyester factory production cuts, with its inventory in a downward absolute - value trend but at a near - five - year high relative value. Polyester products are expected to follow the decline in oil prices. The polyester bottle - chip market has a mixed supply - side price trend, with expected tightening of market supply and potential improvement in downstream demand. The polyester industry chain is expected to fluctuate with costs, with PX, PTA, and PR all expected to move in a volatile manner [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On June 26, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settled at $65.24 per barrel, up 0.49%; Brent crude oil futures settled at $67.73 per barrel, up 0.07%. Naphtha spot price in CFR Japan was $568.75 per ton, down 1.81%. Isomer - grade xylene FOB Korea was $725 per ton, down 0.21%. PX CFR China Main Port was $853 per ton, up 0.51% [1] - **PTA**: CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4,770 yuan per ton, down 0.42%; settlement price was 4,762 yuan per ton, down 0.38%. Near - month contract closing price was 4,976 yuan per ton, down 0.72%; settlement price was 4,974 yuan per ton, down 0.80%. Domestic PTA spot price was 5,023 yuan per ton, down 0.53%. CCFEI PTA domestic price index was 5,025 yuan per ton, down 0.46%; foreign price index was $642 per ton (as of June 25), down 0.93%. Near - far month spread was 212 yuan per ton, a decrease of 22 yuan; basis was 255 yuan per ton, a decrease of 3 yuan [1] - **PX**: CZCE PX main - contract closing price was 6,722 yuan per ton, down 0.53%; settlement price was 6,710 yuan per ton, down 0.62%. Near - month contract closing price was 6,854 yuan per ton, down 0.93%; settlement price was 6,848 yuan per ton, down 1.50%. Domestic PX spot price was 6,889 yuan per ton, unchanged. PX CFR Taiwan was $853 per ton, up 0.35%; FOB Korea was $828 per ton, up 0.36%. PXN spread was $284.25 per ton, up 5.50%; PX - MX spread was $128 per ton, up 4.77%. Basis was 167 yuan per ton, an increase of 36 yuan [1] - **PR**: CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 5,930 yuan per ton, down 0.50%; settlement price was 5,936 yuan per ton, down 0.30%. Near - month contract closing price was 6,010 yuan per ton, down 0.56%; settlement price was 6,024 yuan per ton, down 0.33%. East China market polyester bottle - chip price was 6,050 yuan per ton, down 0.17%; South China market was 6,120 yuan per ton, down 0.33%. East China market basis was 120 yuan per ton, an increase of 20 yuan; South China market basis was 190 yuan per ton, an increase of 10 yuan [1] - **Downstream**: On June 26, 2025, CCFEI polyester DTY price index was 9,150 yuan per ton, down 0.54%; POY was 7,425 yuan per ton, down 0.34%; FDY68D and FDY150D were both 7,450 yuan per ton, unchanged; polyester staple fiber was 6,785 yuan per ton, unchanged; polyester chip was 5,925 yuan per ton, down 0.17%; bottle - grade chip was 6,050 yuan per ton, down 0.17% [2] Production and Operation Information - **Operating Rate**: On June 26, 2025, PX operating rate was 80.43%, down 2.27 percentage points; PTA factory load rate was 78.56%, unchanged; polyester factory load rate was 89.35%, down 0.66 percentage points; bottle - chip factory load rate was 80.20%, down 2.26 percentage points; Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load rate was 65.10%, down 2.54 percentage points [1] - **Sales Rate**: On June 26, 2025, polyester filament sales rate was 28%, up 6 percentage points; polyester staple fiber sales rate was 43%, down 12 percentage points; polyester chip sales rate was 40%, down 6 percentage points [1] Device Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA plant in the northwest plans to restart between May 15 and 20. A 1 - million - ton PX plant in Shandong has started its scheduled maintenance, maintaining a tight - balance situation in the domestic market [2] Trading Strategy - PTA's TA2509 contract closed at 4,770 yuan per ton, down 0.21%, with a trading volume of 1.06 million lots. PX's PX2509 contract closed at 6,722 yuan per ton, down 0.44%, with a trading volume of 290,400 lots. PR's 2509 contract closed at 5,930 yuan per ton, down 0.40%, with a trading volume of 60,700 lots. The polyester industry chain is expected to fluctuate with costs, with PX, PTA, and PR all expected to move in a volatile manner (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2]