总体看12月PTA或去库，春节前后季节性累库，随后随着春检的进行以及需求的恢复PTA有望连续去 库。绝对价格运行跟随成本，配置上跟随成本偏多配置。后期PTA加工差或有回升预期。 华联期货： 近期装置变动不大，PTA装置按计划检修且整体检修力度较大（虹港石化检修、逸盛宁波停车检修5 周、逸盛大连、逸盛海南装置停车中，英力士、四川能投、独山能源1#检修中）。 机构观点 一德期货： 消息面 12月16日，PTA产能利用率较15日持平至73.81%；聚酯产能利用率86.64%，较15日持平。 12月16日，郑商所PTA期货仓单录得136697张，较上一交易日下降1296张；最近一周，PTA期货仓单累 计增长11138张，增长幅度为8.87%；最近一个月，PTA期货仓单累计增长25001张，增长幅度为 22.38%。 成本端布油下探近五年低点，距离今年二季度的低点一步之遥位，为聚酯产业链带来压力。当前PX利 润良好，开工处于高位，延续偏紧格局。PTA加工费走强，开工率预计提升；下游聚酯偏弱。终端进入 淡季，库存压力上升。PTA预计累库。操作方面，油价压力较大，TA预料震荡偏弱，2605合约参考压 力位4750-4850 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - After the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, the oil market entered a phase of rest and consolidation. The decrease in US EIA crude oil inventories and significant drawdowns in refined oil products supported a slight increase in oil prices. PX prices are close to pre - rally levels, with solid bottom support due to low inventory. PX's future profitability depends on unexpected factors. PTA prices declined slightly due to concerns about downstream polyester factory production cuts, with its inventory in a downward absolute - value trend but at a near - five - year high relative value. Polyester products are expected to follow the decline in oil prices. The polyester bottle - chip market has a mixed supply - side price trend, with expected tightening of market supply and potential improvement in downstream demand. The polyester industry chain is expected to fluctuate with costs, with PX, PTA, and PR all expected to move in a volatile manner [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On June 26, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settled at $65.24 per barrel, up 0.49%; Brent crude oil futures settled at $67.73 per barrel, up 0.07%. Naphtha spot price in CFR Japan was $568.75 per ton, down 1.81%. Isomer - grade xylene FOB Korea was $725 per ton, down 0.21%. PX CFR China Main Port was $853 per ton, up 0.51% [1] - **PTA**: CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4,770 yuan per ton, down 0.42%; settlement price was 4,762 yuan per ton, down 0.38%. Near - month contract closing price was 4,976 yuan per ton, down 0.72%; settlement price was 4,974 yuan per ton, down 0.80%. Domestic PTA spot price was 5,023 yuan per ton, down 0.53%. CCFEI PTA domestic price index was 5,025 yuan per ton, down 0.46%; foreign price index was $642 per ton (as of June 25), down 0.93%. Near - far month spread was 212 yuan per ton, a decrease of 22 yuan; basis was 255 yuan per ton, a decrease of 3 yuan [1] - **PX**: CZCE PX main - contract closing price was 6,722 yuan per ton, down 0.53%; settlement price was 6,710 yuan per ton, down 0.62%. Near - month contract closing price was 6,854 yuan per ton, down 0.93%; settlement price was 6,848 yuan per ton, down 1.50%. Domestic PX spot price was 6,889 yuan per ton, unchanged. PX CFR Taiwan was $853 per ton, up 0.35%; FOB Korea was $828 per ton, up 0.36%. PXN spread was $284.25 per ton, up 5.50%; PX - MX spread was $128 per ton, up 4.77%. Basis was 167 yuan per ton, an increase of 36 yuan [1] - **PR**: CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 5,930 yuan per ton, down 0.50%; settlement price was 5,936 yuan per ton, down 0.30%. Near - month contract closing price was 6,010 yuan per ton, down 0.56%; settlement price was 6,024 yuan per ton, down 0.33%. East China market polyester bottle - chip price was 6,050 yuan per ton, down 0.17%; South China market was 6,120 yuan per ton, down 0.33%. East China market basis was 120 yuan per ton, an increase of 20 yuan; South China market basis was 190 yuan per ton, an increase of 10 yuan [1] - **Downstream**: On June 26, 2025, CCFEI polyester DTY price index was 9,150 yuan per ton, down 0.54%; POY was 7,425 yuan per ton, down 0.34%; FDY68D and FDY150D were both 7,450 yuan per ton, unchanged; polyester staple fiber was 6,785 yuan per ton, unchanged; polyester chip was 5,925 yuan per ton, down 0.17%; bottle - grade chip was 6,050 yuan per ton, down 0.17% [2] Production and Operation Information - **Operating Rate**: On June 26, 2025, PX operating rate was 80.43%, down 2.27 percentage points; PTA factory load rate was 78.56%, unchanged; polyester factory load rate was 89.35%, down 0.66 percentage points; bottle - chip factory load rate was 80.20%, down 2.26 percentage points; Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load rate was 65.10%, down 2.54 percentage points [1] - **Sales Rate**: On June 26, 2025, polyester filament sales rate was 28%, up 6 percentage points; polyester staple fiber sales rate was 43%, down 12 percentage points; polyester chip sales rate was 40%, down 6 percentage points [1] Device Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA plant in the northwest plans to restart between May 15 and 20. A 1 - million - ton PX plant in Shandong has started its scheduled maintenance, maintaining a tight - balance situation in the domestic market [2] Trading Strategy - PTA's TA2509 contract closed at 4,770 yuan per ton, down 0.21%, with a trading volume of 1.06 million lots. PX's PX2509 contract closed at 6,722 yuan per ton, down 0.44%, with a trading volume of 290,400 lots. PR's 2509 contract closed at 5,930 yuan per ton, down 0.40%, with a trading volume of 60,700 lots. The polyester industry chain is expected to fluctuate with costs, with PX, PTA, and PR all expected to move in a volatile manner (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The PTA market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance due to maintenance and inventory reduction, leading to a short-term bullish outlook for PTA prices, although medium-term pressures from new capacity and reduced downstream production are anticipated [2][3]. Group 1: Market Data - As of May 23, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange reported 56,566 PTA futures warehouse receipts, a decrease of 994 from the previous trading day [1]. - Last week, PTA social inventory was at 3.7316 million tons, down by 149,700 tons, continuing a downward trend since March [1]. - The PTA industry operating rate increased to 77.1% due to the restart and short maintenance of some facilities [1]. Group 2: Price and Trading Activity - The spot market for PTA showed a general trading atmosphere, with spot basis strengthening. Transactions for May were reported around 4,840 to 4,905, with Ningbo goods trading at 4,835 to 4,840 [1]. - The mainstream spot basis was reported at 09+151 [1]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - According to Guangzhou Futures, the PTA market is expected to remain strong in the short term due to cost support and inventory reduction, but medium-term pressures from new capacity and reduced downstream production are likely to limit price rebounds [2]. - Hualian Futures noted that supply is expected to see slight increases with the restart of certain facilities, while demand remains stable. However, foreign trade orders have slightly decreased [3].