小摩认为，除非全年纯利变动超过50%，否则保险公司无需发布盈利预告。该行预测2025财年国寿、中 国平安及中国太保(02601)纯利分别同比增长47%、19%及10%。由于更关注核心盈利带来的可持续每股 股息增长，以及新会计准则下纯利波动性增加，保险公司对自愿发布盈利预告更为审慎。该行不认为缺 乏正面盈利预告是本季度的盈利风险。值得注意的是，市场共识2026财年纯利预测已显示同比下跌 9%，因此该行认为现阶段市场共识进一步下调的风险有限。 摩根大通发布研报称，农历新年长假期结束后，中国H股保险公司的表现落后于大市。市场似乎关注： (1)短期盈利风险，因主要保险公司尚未公布正面盈利预告; (2)缺乏数据点，因未有披露每月保费收入; (3)农历新年假期后的宏观走势。 该行预期，随着业绩公布期临近，板块将重拾动力。五大关键催化剂包括：(1)加强股东总回报的讨论; (2)管理层对2026财年寿险销售前景的乐观指引; (3)2025年第四季偿付能力资本状况稳健; (4)资金成本下 降; 及(5)对寿险准备金合约服务边际(CSM)恢复的信心增强。该行偏好中国平安(02318)，因其寿险销售 复苏及估值吸引; 以及中国人寿 ...

Core Viewpoint - After the Lunar New Year holiday, the performance of Chinese H-share insurance companies has lagged behind the market, with concerns over short-term profit risks and a lack of data points regarding monthly premium income [1] Group 1: Market Concerns - Short-term profit risks are highlighted as major insurance companies have not yet released positive profit forecasts [1] - There is a lack of data points due to the absence of disclosed monthly premium income [1] - The macroeconomic trends following the Lunar New Year holiday are under scrutiny [1] Group 2: Expected Catalysts - The sector is expected to regain momentum as the earnings announcement period approaches, driven by five key catalysts [1] - Increased discussions on total shareholder returns [1] - Management's optimistic guidance on life insurance sales prospects for fiscal year 2026 [1] - Solid solvency capital status for Q4 2025 [1] - Decrease in funding costs [1] - Enhanced confidence in the recovery of the Contractual Service Margin (CSM) for life insurance reserves [1] Group 3: Company Preferences and Ratings - The company prefers China Ping An (601318) due to its life insurance sales recovery and attractive valuation, as well as China Life (601628) for its strong life insurance sales growth and discussions on enhancing shareholder returns [1] - Morgan Stanley has assigned "Overweight" ratings to both China Ping An and China Life H-shares, with target prices of HKD 100 and HKD 40, respectively [1] Group 4: Profit Forecasts and Market Consensus - Morgan Stanley states that insurance companies are not required to issue profit forecasts unless annual net profit changes exceed 50% [2] - The firm predicts net profit growth for China Life, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance (601601) for fiscal year 2025 at 47%, 19%, and 10% respectively [2] - The market consensus for fiscal year 2026 net profit forecasts shows a projected decline of 9%, indicating limited risk for further downward adjustments at this stage [2]

小摩认为，除非全年纯利变动超过50%，否则保险公司无需发布盈利预告。该行预测2025财年国寿、中 国平安及中国太保(02601)纯利分别同比增长47%、19%及10%。由于更关注核心盈利带来的可持续每股 股息增长，以及新会计准则下纯利波动性增加，保险公司对自愿发布盈利预告更为审慎。该行不认为缺 乏正面盈利预告是本季度的盈利风险。值得注意的是，市场共识2026财年纯利预测已显示同比下跌 9%，因此该行认为现阶段市场共识进一步下调的风险有限。 该行预期，随着业绩公布期临近，板块将重拾动力。五大关键催化剂包括：(1)加强股东总回报的讨论; (2)管理层对2026财年寿险销售前景的乐观指引; (3)2025年第四季偿付能力资本状况稳健; (4)资金成本下 降; 及(5)对寿险准备金合约服务边际(CSM)恢复的信心增强。该行偏好中国平安(02318)，因其寿险销售 复苏及估值吸引; 以及中国人寿(02628)，其在同样强劲的寿险销售增长前景之外，还提供加强股东回报 的讨论。小摩对中国平安及国寿H股分别予"增持"评级，目标价分别100港元及40港元。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发布研报称，农历新年长假期结束后，中国H股 ...

摩根大通发表报告指，随着业绩公布期临近，保险板块将重拾动力。五大关键催化剂包括：(1)加强股 东总回报的讨论；(2)管理层对2026财年寿险销售前景的乐观指引；(3)2025年第四季偿付能力资本状况 稳健；(4)资金成本下降；及(5)对寿险准备金合约服务边际(CSM)恢复的信心增强。该行偏好中国平 安，因其寿险销售复苏及估值吸引；以及中国人寿，其在同样强劲的寿险销售增长前景之外，还提供加 强股东回报的讨论。该行对中国平安及国寿H股分别予"增持"评级，目标价分别为100港元及40港元。 ...