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【申万宏源策略 | 一周回顾展望】二季度弱势震荡,科技仍可能有独立行情
申万宏源研究· 2025-03-31 02:36
Group 1 - The macro background for the A-share adjustment in Q2 includes a natural decline in Chinese exports and increased tariff threats from the US, leading to amplified macroeconomic expectations and a decrease in risk appetite [1][2] - The direct reason for the short-term market adjustment is the approaching "April Decision" period, which includes the verification of annual and quarterly reports, as well as economic data from China and the implementation of US tariffs [1][2] - The adjustment pressure from the April verification period is considered limited, with expectations for domestic AI computing power to potentially show strong differentiation and growth [1][3] Group 2 - The macroeconomic issues persisting into Q2 include the natural decline in Chinese exports and the potential for further US tariff threats, which may lead to a weak and volatile A-share market [2][4] - The narrative of the current technology adjustment is similar to the Nasdaq adjustment from July to October 2023, characterized by slow application realization and concerns over excessive investment in computing power [2][3] - The adjustment in domestic AI computing power is seen as a shorter phase compared to the US, as the industry is still in a stage of basic breakthroughs with insufficient application layer development [3][4] Group 3 - Defensive thinking is favored in Q2 2025, with a focus on high dividend relative returns and the strengthening of pricing power for short-term allocation funds [4][5] - The technology structural bull market is expected to continue into 2025, with investment opportunities identified in domestic AI computing power and applications, embodied intelligence, and low-altitude economy [4][5] - The valuation advantage of Hong Kong stocks over A-shares is highlighted, particularly in the context of insurance capital's increasing influence on high dividend assets [5]