Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Economic and financial data weakness does not change the high - low switching trend between stocks and bonds, with stocks strong and bonds weak. The continuous net -回笼 of funds by the central bank from Monday to Thursday last week did not change the loose liquidity, and the central bank switched to net - injection on Friday. The loose funds support short - end interest rates, while long - end interest rates are rising due to the strong performance of the equity market [2][92]. - The Q2 2025 monetary policy report shows an attitude of liquidity care and emphasizes "preventing capital idling". The central bank may focus more on micro - level changes, improve the transmission efficiency of policy interest rates to market interest rates, and prevent capital idling in the next stage [2][11][93]. - Given the loose funds and strong stock market, the yield curve may become steeper. In the short term, short - term bonds perform well due to loose funds, while long - term bonds are at a disadvantage. In the long term, the interest rate center will decline, and the rigid demand of institutional investors will support bonds. The investment strategy is to "shorten portfolio duration + prioritize old bonds" [2][95]. Summary by Directory 1. Important Matters - On August 15, 2025, the central bank will conduct a 5000 - billion - yuan 6 - month买断式逆回购 operation, resulting in a net injection of 3000 billion yuan after the operation, as the August maturity scale is 9000 billion yuan [5]. - The Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration jointly issued a personal consumption loan fiscal subsidy policy from September 1, 2025, to August 31, 2026, with detailed subsidy rules and a list of first - batch loan - handling institutions [7]. - The credit data in July 2025 was relatively weak. The cumulative social financing scale from January to July was 23.99 trillion yuan, with specific changes in various components compared to the previous year [8]. - The Q2 2025 monetary policy report was released on August 15, with changes in the next - stage monetary policy direction compared to the Q1 report, mainly focusing on implementing policies more precisely, improving interest rate transmission, and preventing capital idling [11]. 2. Money Market 2.1 Open Market Operations and Fund Interest Rate Trends - From August 11 to 15, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day open - market operations had a net -回笼 of 4149 billion yuan. It is expected that 9318 billion yuan of base currency will be matured and withdrawn from August 18 to 22 [15][16]. - The funds were relatively loose last week, and the policy interest rate of the 7 - day open - market reverse repurchase was 1.40%. As of August 15, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 had specific changes compared to August 8, and their interest rate centers also changed [21]. 2.2 Certificate of Deposit Interest Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Situations - In the primary market, commercial bank certificates of deposit were in a net - financing - out state last week, with a net financing scale of - 1311.1 billion yuan. The state - owned banks had the largest issuance scale, and the 1 - year CD issuance rate of national and joint - stock banks dropped to around 1.62% - 1.63% [27][30]. - In the secondary market, due to the overall market weakness, the yields of CDs of all maturities were on the rise, and the 1Y - 3M term spread widened [34]. 3. Bond Market - In the primary market, on August 14, the marginal interest rate of the 3 - year treasury bond (250015) was 1.4600%, and the net - financing rhythm of local government bonds from January to August was faster than that of treasury bonds. The supply of local bonds from August to September may have a relatively long average maturity. Last week, the issuance and net - financing scale of interest - rate bonds decreased [38][45]. - As of August 15, the issuance scale of special refinancing bonds in 2025 reached 1.89 trillion yuan, mainly in long - and ultra - long - term maturities, with certain regional differences in issuance [47]. - In the secondary market, the strong performance of the equity market last week led to a weak bond market. The short - end interest rates were supported by low - level running funds, and the curve steepened further. The trading volume and turnover rate of 10 - year treasury and CDB active bonds increased, and the term spread and the spread between national and local bonds had specific changes [50][54][57]. 4. Institutional Behavior Tracking - In July, the institutional leverage ratio decreased seasonally and was at a relatively low level compared to the same period due to the upward - fluctuating bond market. The trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was relatively high last week [66][71]. - In the cash - bond market, state - owned banks increased their holdings of treasury bonds with maturities within 5 years, rural commercial banks increased their holdings of treasury bonds with maturities over 5 years and CDB bonds with maturities of 5 - 10 years, while securities firms and funds were net sellers, and funds mainly reduced their holdings of long - term bonds [66][76]. - The current average cost of major trading desks for adding positions in 10 - year treasury bonds is above 1.70%, with rural commercial banks' cost decreasing due to large - scale position - adding [79]. 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement prices of rebar futures decreased by 1.47% week - on - week, wire rod futures remained flat, cathode copper futures increased by 1.01%, the cement price index decreased by 1.05%, and the Nanhua Glass Index decreased by 1.58%. The CCFI index decreased by 0.62%, and the BDI index increased by 2.26%. The wholesale price of pork decreased by 3.00%, and the wholesale price of vegetables increased by 3.94%. Brent crude oil futures increased by 8.88%, and WTI crude oil futures decreased by 0.61%. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.14 [90]. 6. Market Outlook - The high - low switching trend between stocks and bonds will continue. The central bank's liquidity operations maintain loose funds, supporting short - end interest rates and causing long - end interest rates to rise due to the strong equity market [2][92]. - The central bank may focus on micro - level changes and improve the transmission efficiency of interest rates in the next - stage monetary policy, while preventing capital idling [2][93]. - The yield curve may become steeper in the short term. In the long term, the interest rate center will decline, and the investment strategy is to "shorten portfolio duration + prioritize old bonds" [2][95].