Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the bond market outlook for October 2025, with a focus on credit bonds and interest rate bonds [2][7][12]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Travel Data and Real Estate Sales**: Strong travel data during the National Day holiday indicates robust activity, but real estate sales were slightly weaker than the previous year, leading to a neutral impact on the bond market [2][5]. - **U.S. Economic Indicators**: The U.S. government shutdown has resulted in the absence of key non-farm payroll data, while the ADP employment report showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs, raising expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October [2][6]. - **Monetary Policy Outlook**: The central bank is expected to maintain a supportive monetary policy stance, utilizing various tools to ensure liquidity, while being cautious of risks associated with fund idling [2][7]. - **Interest Rate Trends**: The overall low interest rate environment is leading to a decline in the profitability of pure bond assets, making it difficult for long-term rates to decrease significantly in October [2][7]. - **Credit Bond Market Performance**: The credit bond market experienced volatility in September, with a steepening yield curve and fluctuating credit spreads. A defensive strategy focusing on short-duration bonds is recommended for October [2][8][12]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Impact of Regulatory Changes**: The introduction of new public fund sales regulations in early September caused significant market disruptions, leading to a sell-off of government bonds to maintain liquidity, which resulted in a passive narrowing of credit spreads [2][10]. - **Seasonal Factors**: Concerns over institutional redemptions at the end of September led to a significant rise in credit bond yields and widening credit spreads [2][11]. - **Investment Recommendations**: - For institutions with moderate stability, focus on 2-3 year credit varieties, particularly 3-year bank subordinated capital instruments, while being cautious of liquidity risks [3][14]. - For stable institutions, consider participating in 4-5 year bank subordinated capital instruments, but be aware of potential volatility [3][14]. - Avoid excessive participation in ultra-long-term non-financial bonds due to their lower liquidity and potential for significant price adjustments [3][14].

Group 1 - The world economy is facing a complex situation with "Trump tariffs" acting as a brake and major countries' monetary easing serving as an accelerator [2][9] - The Federal Reserve has restarted interest rate cuts after nine months, indicating a shift in monetary policy [2][5] - Major central banks, except for the Bank of Japan, are lowering interest rates, with the average policy rate in developed countries dropping from 4.2% to 3% [5][7] Group 2 - The number of corporate bankruptcies in the U.S. has reached the highest level since 2010, with 446 large enterprise bankruptcies reported from January to July 2025 [3] - Employment market is slowing down, prompting the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 0.25% on September 17 [3][7] - Despite the influx of monetary easing, funds are not flowing into the real economy, leading to a distortion in financial markets [2][8] Group 3 - Investment in equipment is stagnating, with U.S. equipment investment expected to increase by only 0.8% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026 [7][8] - Companies are diverting funds from equipment investment to financial markets, with a significant increase in Bitcoin holdings among global listed companies [8][9] - The average tariff rate has increased from 2.4% to 16.4%, adding an estimated $450 billion burden annually on imports [8][9] Group 4 - If monetary easing does not stimulate the real economy, investment returns in financial markets may decline, posing a risk of cooling down [9] - The Trump administration aims to attract $550 billion from Japan and $600 billion from Europe to revitalize domestic industries [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The People's Bank of China's mention of "preventing idle capital circulation" aims to correct the irrational credit structure and aligns with the overall spirit of "anti-involution." It is expected that the growth rate of social financing has gradually peaked, and credit will decline year-on-year in the second half of the year. Interest rate cuts may be more inclined to "effectively cope with external shocks." The bond market is currently intertwined with bullish and bearish factors, and is likely to continue its weak oscillation pattern in the near future [1][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs What is "Idle Capital Circulation"? - The first type of idle capital circulation refers to the situation where the base currency does not convert into social financing according to the full money multiplier but accumulates in the financial system. For example, it can be retained through the non-bank loan - interbank deposit method. When the marketization degree of interbank deposit interest rates is insufficient, it is prone to trigger various arbitrage models. However, normal "deposit transfer" by residents will also boost the growth rate of non-bank deposits, which is a normal credit expansion function of non-bank institutions, and M2 will decrease in this process [7][13][14]. - The second type of idle capital circulation is related to the credit structure of the real economy. In reality, due to greater economic downward pressure, the financing demand of small and medium - sized enterprises is not strong, but banks have a natural inclination for loan scale. Therefore, they conduct "large - customer stacking" through "involution - style" lending, concentrating excessive credit on large enterprises and potentially reducing credit interest rates in an "involution - style" manner. This violates the People's Bank of China's emphasis on "preventing idle capital circulation and maintaining a balance between financial support for the real economy and self - health" [7][20][21]. How to View Social Financing and Credit, and Will There Be an Interest Rate Cut? - It is expected that the growth rate of social financing has gradually peaked, and credit will decline year - on - year in the second half of the year. After the "large - customer stacking" credit funds are released, the overall real - economy financing demand is still weak, so it is difficult for other types of enterprises to fully absorb these funds. As the peak of government bond issuance passes, the growth rate of social financing is expected to gradually peak [7][22]. - Short - term fluctuations in credit do not directly constitute a necessary reason for an interest rate cut. In the context of certain downward pressure on the economic operation and the adjustment of the real estate market, the effective loan demand is weak, and the correlation between loan interest rates and loan growth has significantly weakened in recent years. Interest rate cuts may have limited effect on directly boosting credit. With the further development of "reciprocal tariffs," subsequent interest rate cuts and other aggregate tools may be more inclined to "effectively cope with external shocks" [7][25]. - The current bond market is intertwined with bullish and bearish factors, with insufficient odds in the short term and lacking a basis for significant adjustment. The stock - bond "see - saw" effect may continue, and it is expected that the bond market may continue to maintain a weak oscillation pattern in the near future [1][7][25].

Group 1 - The stock market shows a strong trend while the bond market faces challenges, leading to a "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds [1][4] - The yield on 10-year and 30-year government bonds has increased by 14 basis points and 23 basis points respectively since early July, reaching 1.7818% and 2.0775% [1] - The bond market sentiment remains cautious despite a slight recovery potential as the 10-year government bond yield approaches the 1.8% mark [4] Group 2 - The macroeconomic fundamentals of the bond market have not changed significantly, with weak financing demand and a reasonably ample liquidity environment providing support [2] - In July, social financing continued to show a divergence in total and structural characteristics, with government bond issuance being a major contributor while real financing demand remains weak [2] - Economic data for July indicates weakening demand pressures, with notable declines in investment, particularly in infrastructure and manufacturing [2][3] Group 3 - The current economic strength suggests that achieving annual growth targets is not overly pressured, with rising commodity prices contributing to a rebound in inflation expectations [3] - The monetary policy is in a "comfortable zone," with no immediate motivation for active easing, and the probability of rate cuts further decreasing in the third quarter [3] - Recent policies aimed at supporting personal consumption loans and service industry loans reflect a coordinated effort between fiscal and monetary policies to boost consumption and stabilize employment [3][4] Group 4 - A new "quasi-fiscal" tool worth 500 billion yuan is set to be implemented, focusing on emerging industries and infrastructure, which can enhance effective investment [4] - The market has experienced three phases since the beginning of the year: tightening liquidity in Q1, a dual bull market in Q2, and a renewed "see-saw" effect in Q3 driven by strong policy support [4] - The future of the "see-saw" market trend will depend on whether the positive expectations for the economic fundamentals can translate into reality and the direction of monetary policy [4]

Core Insights - A significant shift in wealth management is occurring in China, with households moving away from traditional bank deposits to explore new investment avenues [1][12] - The decline in bank deposit attractiveness, driven by falling interest rates, is prompting a migration of funds towards non-bank financial institutions and the stock market [4][5] Group 1: Bank Deposits and Non-Bank Financial Institutions - In July, Chinese household deposits saw a dramatic drop of 1.11 trillion yuan, marking the second-largest monthly decline in history, while non-bank financial institutions' deposits surged by 2.14 trillion yuan [3] - The one-year fixed deposit rate from major state-owned banks has fallen to a historic low of 0.95%, leading to a significant decrease in deposit interest income compared to five years ago [4] Group 2: Stock Market Dynamics - The stock market has become a primary destination for funds, with A-share indices rising significantly in July: the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 3.74%, the Shenzhen Component by 5.2%, and the ChiNext by 8.14% [5] - A substantial portion of the new funds entering the stock market is attributed to residents transferring money from bank accounts to securities accounts, with 60% of non-bank deposit growth coming from these transfers [5] Group 3: Wealth Management Products - Bank wealth management products have emerged as a crucial intermediary for fund transfers, with total assets surpassing 30.67 trillion yuan and an average annualized return of 2.12% [7] - The demand for wealth management products is evident, as seen in the 200% increase in sales of specific products designed for transitioning funds from deposits to investments [7] Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Economic Impact - Some individuals are opting to repay mortgages early to reduce debt costs, with personal housing loan balances decreasing by 852 billion yuan in the first seven months of 2025 [8] - Consumer spending is also on the rise, with domestic tourism reaching 3.2 trillion yuan in revenue, reflecting a shift towards enjoying current experiences rather than saving [8] Group 5: Market Risks and Concerns - There are emerging concerns about funds not effectively reaching the real economy, with signs of "capital turnover" and a notable increase in cash transactions in the real estate market [9] - Historical precedents warn of potential market volatility, as seen in the 2015 stock market crash following a similar surge in non-bank deposits [11]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Administration issued a detailed implementation plan for the personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy, which is expected to stimulate consumption and support domestic demand while potentially delaying overall interest rate cuts [1] - The central bank's second-quarter monetary policy report emphasizes maintaining policy continuity and stability, with a focus on solidifying credit support and preventing fund circularity, indicating a shift towards structural regulation rather than an increase in total credit [2] - The current market shows a strong stock performance but weak bond performance, with multiple factors such as tax period cash flow tightening and rising stock market volumes contributing to a downward adjustment in the bond market [3] Group 2 - The bond market's adjustment is limited due to the need for further recovery in domestic demand, and stability in the bond market requires signals of liquidity support from the central bank [3] - The central bank's increased reverse repurchase operations on August 19 showed initial signs of stabilization in the bond market, with attention on the upcoming MLF operations and fluctuations in funding rates [3] - The report highlights the need to address excessive low-price competition in certain industries and promote consumption to achieve reasonable price recovery, which will be a key policy direction moving forward [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, bond yields may fluctuate downward. Although government bond issuance brings certain net - increase pressure, the certainty of the downward trend of capital prices is relatively high due to the marginal decline of the central bank's open - market maturity scale and the gradual subsidence of tax - period disturbances. In the long term, the bond yield is still in a downward trend under the background of weak fundamentals [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Bond Market Performance Last Week - Bond yields generally increased, the term spread widened, and the curve became steeper. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 6BP to 1.7465%, the short - term interest rate rose slightly, and the term spread increased by 4BP. Bank - to - bank pledged repo rates and financial institution pledged repo rates both increased. The liquidity of the banking system remained reasonably abundant, and the R007 - DR007 spread narrowed, but the stratification between non - bank institutions and banks still existed [3]. Factors Driving Bond Yield Increases - The increase in market risk preference, tax - period disturbances, and the substantial increase in government bond supply jointly pushed up bond yields. The stock - bond seesaw effect, with the steady rise of the equity index, suppressed the bond market. The tax - period on the 15th led to a convergence of the money market and a significant increase in capital prices. The net increase in government bond issuance also contributed to the rise in bond yields [4]. Policy - related Influences - Policies on preventing capital idling and fiscal discount loans indicate that the pace of comprehensive interest rate cuts may slow down. The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy report emphasizes preventing capital idling, suggesting a possible delay in the pace of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The fiscal discount policy for personal consumption and business loans strengthens the signal of a slowdown in the pace of comprehensive interest rate cuts [5]. Fundamental Situation - Economic data generally declined, and loans in the real - sector weakened, reflecting the weak economic operation. In July, economic and financial data showed that the contradiction of "weak demand + resilient supply + low prices" continued. Industrial added - value growth slightly decreased, overall investment growth was dragged down by real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing, consumption momentum slightly slowed down, and financing in the resident and enterprise sectors was weak [6][7]. Capital - related Situation - This week, liquidity continued to be relatively loose. The maturity scale of the central bank's reverse repurchase decreased significantly, which will relieve capital pressure. The tax - period disturbances are gradually subsiding, and capital prices may decline [7]. Supply - side Situation - This week, local government bond issuance increased, and government bond issuance maintained a net - increase trend. It is expected that the central bank will adjust capital injection to maintain liquidity. The net increase in local government bond issuance this week was 2366 billion yuan compared with last week, and the net increase in Treasury bond issuance also increased by about 1000 billion yuan compared with last week. The scale of government bond payments decreased marginally compared with last week [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The second - round China - US trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one. The TMT sector rose strongly, and the stock index increased with heavy trading volume. However, the improvement in corporate earnings needs to be verified by the upcoming mid - year report data [2]. - Multiple negative factors such as the central bank's mention of "preventing idle funds from circulating" in the second - quarter monetary policy report, the strong performance of the stock market, and the tightening of funds during the tax payment period led to a significant decline in bond futures. The bond market sentiment remains weak [2]. - The meeting of US, Ukrainian, and European leaders brought hope for easing the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which increased risk appetite and caused precious metals to rise and then fall. Gold and silver prices are in a range - bound state [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) is in a weak and volatile state, and the short position of the October contract should be continued to hold [2]. - Steel prices are supported due to limited inventory accumulation in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. Iron ore follows the price fluctuations of steel, while some coal prices are showing signs of weakness [2]. - The prices of non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are in a narrow - range or weak - range fluctuation, and different trading strategies are recommended for each metal [2]. - The energy and chemical sectors show different trends. Some products are in a range - bound state, while others are facing supply - demand pressures and are recommended for short - selling or other strategies [2]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products have different trends, such as the upward trend of palm oil and the weakening trend of corn [2]. - Special commodities like glass are in a weak state, and new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate need to pay attention to policy and supply - related factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose with heavy volume, but the improvement in earnings needs mid - year report data verification. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2509 with an exercise price around 6600 at high prices and have a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Multiple negative factors led to a decline in bond futures. The bond market is in an unfavorable situation, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is recommended to build a bullish spread strategy through call options at the low - price stage after price corrections. Silver is recommended to maintain a low - buying strategy or build a bullish spread strategy with options [2]. Black - **Steel**: Steel prices are supported due to limited inventory accumulation in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. The 10 - month contracts of hot - rolled coils and rebar should pay attention to the support levels of 3400 yuan and 3200 yuan respectively [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipping volume increased, and the port inventory and port clearance improved. It follows the price fluctuations of steel, and it is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Coking Coal**: After the exchange's intervention, the futures price peaked and declined, and some coal prices weakened. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Coke**: The sixth - round price increase of mainstream coking plants has been implemented, and the seventh - round price increase is in progress. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. Non - ferrous - **Copper**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 78000 - 79500 yuan [2]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 3000 - 3300 yuan [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price fluctuated downward due to the additional tariff on aluminum. The main contract should pay attention to the pressure level of 21000 yuan and fluctuates within the range of 20000 - 21000 yuan [2]. - **Zinc**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 22000 - 23000 yuan [2]. - **Tin**: It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the import situation of Burmese tin ore [2]. - **Nickel**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 118000 - 126000 yuan [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The main contract fluctuates in a narrow range, with cost support but demand drag, and fluctuates within the range of 12800 - 13500 yuan [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The short - term geopolitical risk is the main factor. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and expand the spread between the October - November/December contracts. The support levels for WTI, Brent, and SC are given [2]. - **Urea**: The Indian tender news has a certain boost to the market. If there are no more positive factors after the price rebound, it is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **PX**: The supply - demand pressure is not significant, and the demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the 6600 - 6900 range and expand the PX - SC spread at a low level [2]. - **PTA**: The processing fee is low, and the cost support is limited. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the 4600 - 4800 range and conduct a reverse spread operation on TA1 - 5 at high prices [2]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve, but there is no obvious short - term driver. It is recommended to try to go long at the lower end of the 6300 - 6500 range [2]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The production reduction effect is obvious, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the processing fee at a low price [2]. - **Ethanol**: The supply of MEG is gradually returning, and it is expected to follow the fluctuations of commodities. It is in the range of 4300 - 4500 yuan [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: The main downstream buyers are purchasing well, and the spot price is stable. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand pressure is still high, and it is recommended to take a short - selling approach [2]. - **Benzene**: The supply - demand expectation has improved, but the driving force is limited due to high inventory. It follows the fluctuations of oil prices and styrene [2]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but the cost support is limited. It is recommended to short on rebounds within the 7200 - 7400 range [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost is in a range - bound state, and the supply - demand is loose. It is recommended to hold the seller position of the short - term put option BR2509 - P - 11400 [2]. - **LLDPE**: The basis remains stable, and the trading volume is acceptable. It is in a short - term volatile state [2]. - **PP**: The spot price has little change, and the trading volume has weakened. It is recommended to take profit on the short position in the 7200 - 7300 range [2]. - **Methanol**: The inventory is continuously tightening, and the price is weakening. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations within 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products**: The cost support is strong, and a long - term bullish expectation remains. It is recommended to arrange long positions for the January contract [2]. - **Pigs**: The spot price is in a low - level volatile state, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of production release [2]. - **Corn**: The supply pressure is emerging, and the futures price is in a weak state. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil price is rising, and the domestic palm oil price is following the upward trend. It is expected to reach the 10000 - yuan mark in the short term [2]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is loose. It is recommended to reduce the short position established at the previous high price [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market is weak. It is recommended to reduce the short position [2]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is weak. It is bearish in the long - term [2]. - **Apples**: The sales are slow. Attention should be paid to the price trend of early - maturing apples. The main contract is around 8250 [2]. - **Jujubes**: The price is stable. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing high prices and focus on short - term trading [2]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is at a high level, and the fundamentals are weakening. It is recommended to try short - selling at high prices [2]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: The industry is in a negative feedback cycle, and the futures price is weak. It is recommended to hold the short position [2]. - **Rubber**: Attention should be paid to the raw material price increase during the peak production period [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the change in production capacity [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the change in policy expectations [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is subject to continuous disturbances, and the fundamentals are marginally improving. It is recommended to be cautious and try to go long with a light position at a low price [2].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten-year high of 3741.29 points, marking a significant milestone as the A-share market surpassed a market capitalization of 100 trillion yuan [1] - Since the low point in April, the index has increased by 22.6%, with 4625 stocks rising and 104 hitting the daily limit [1] Bull Market Indicators - A bull market is characterized by a sustained index increase of over 20%, stable trends, and broad participation from both blue-chip and small-cap stocks [3] - Daily trading volume has stabilized at 1-2 trillion yuan, indicating active market participation across various sectors [3] - In July, 1.9636 million new A-share accounts were opened, a 31.72% increase from June, contributing to a total of 14.5613 million new accounts in 2023, a 36.88% year-on-year increase [3] Economic Implications - There are mixed views on whether a rising stock market will lead to improved economic conditions, as the relationship between stock performance and consumer behavior is complex [4] - The transition from a bull market to economic growth requires more than just stock price increases; it necessitates effective capital allocation and investment in production [4] Market Dynamics - The current bull market could either be a "slow bull" or a "fast bull," with the former being characterized by steady growth and the latter by rapid price increases followed by sharp corrections [5][7] - Historical fast bull markets (2005-2007, 2014-2015) saw significant index increases but were followed by severe downturns, highlighting the risks associated with rapid price appreciation [5] Capital Flow Trends - This bull market has seen a shift in capital allocation, with 66% of financing directed towards information technology, industrials, and materials, particularly in hard tech sectors like semiconductors and renewable energy [11] - The increase in M1 growth (5.6%) compared to M2 growth (8.8%) suggests a shift towards more liquid assets, indicating improved economic activity and consumer confidence [8] Long-term Outlook - The potential for a prolonged bull market similar to the U.S. is uncertain, as it relies on high corporate profits and effective capital management strategies [12] - Domestic companies are beginning to show profitability in international markets, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles and pharmaceuticals, indicating a shift towards global competitiveness [13] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on quality stocks and sectors with strong growth potential, as the current market sentiment is characterized by high volatility and speculative behavior [22] - The importance of disciplined investment strategies is emphasized, as many investors tend to buy high and sell low, leading to losses [17][21]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - From August 11 - 15, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net capital withdrawal, and a 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operation of 50 billion yuan was conducted. The overall liquidity remained stable and loose during the week, with a marginal increase in funding rates on the 15th due to the tax period. The central bank's monetary policy implementation report re - mentioned "preventing capital idling", but it is expected not to cause a tightening of the liquidity. The government bond net payment scale increased, most inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) yields rose, and the average leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market increased [2][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Funding Situation - **Open Market Operations**: From August 11 - 15, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 41.49 billion yuan. From August 18 - 22, 71.18 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases and 22 billion yuan of treasury deposits will mature, and a 12 - billion - yuan treasury cash deposit operation will be carried out on August 18. After the central bank conducted a 70 - billion - yuan 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operation on August 8, it carried out another 50 - billion - yuan 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operation on August 15, with a total excess roll - over of 30 billion yuan in August [6]. - **Funding Rates**: From August 11 - 15, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.33% and 1.37% respectively, up 1.9 basis points from August 4 - 8; the average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.45% and 1.47% respectively, up 0.6 basis points and down 0.1 basis points from August 4 - 8. DR001 increased marginally to 1.40% on August 15 when entering the tax payment stage. After the tax period ends, the funding rates are expected to return to the stable and loose level in the first half of August [7]. - **Government Bond Net Payment**: From August 11 - 17, 2025, the government bond net payment scale was about 41.036 billion yuan, an increase of about 3.98 billion yuan compared with August 4 - 10. From August 18 - 24, the government bond net payment scale is expected to be 26.41 billion yuan [8]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Yields**: As of August 15, 2025, the yields of 1 - month and 3 - month NCDs were 1.4600% and 1.5250% respectively, up 1 basis point and down 1 basis point from August 8; the yield of 1 - year NCDs was 1.6400%, up 2 basis points from August 8 [9]. - **Net Financing**: From August 11 - 17, 2025, the net financing of NCDs was about - 131.1 billion yuan. From August 18 - 24, the maturity repayment volume of NCDs is expected to be 794.7 billion yuan, with the roll - over pressure decreasing compared with the previous week [9]. 3. Institutional Behavior - The average leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market increased. From August 11 - 15, 2025, the average calculated leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market was 107.83%, compared with 107.70% from August 4 - 8 [10].