尽管标普500指数持续攀升逼近历史高位，华尔街"聪明钱"却依然坚守看空立场。 "对冲基金通过提前降杠杆，避免了与市场同步下跌的痛苦，"Caplis表示，"正因未受重创，他们现在也 不必被迫追高。" 高盛主经纪商业务部最新报告显示，过去四周对冲基金持续减持美股，抛售规模远超空头回补。尤为引 人注目的是，在科技、媒体和电信板块财报季来临前，基金正以一年来最快速度削减相关头寸——这些 板块正是4月以来股市反弹的主力军。 这种谨慎姿态曾使对冲基金成功规避4月关税风波引发的抛售潮。虽然标普500指数在7月创下历史新高 可能令其错失部分收益，但随着贸易战担忧挥之不去叠加美股传统淡季来临，这些市场最精明参与者的 撤退动向值得警惕。 "基金经理们仍保持高度谨慎，因为许多潜在风险尚未消除，"对冲基金研究机构PivotalPath首席执行官 Jonathan Caplis指出。 这种审慎情绪不仅存在于投资界。美联储本周维持利率不变，主席鲍威尔再次强调，在政策转向宽松 前，决策者需要更多时间评估关税对通胀的影响。 精准避险操作 3月下旬预判到特朗普将宣布加征关税后，对冲基金迅速降低股票敞口并增加空头头寸。这一策略被证 明极具先见之 ...

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index is entering its traditionally challenging period, with historical data showing an average decline of 0.7% in August and September, compared to an average increase of 1.1% in other months [1] - The recent strong rally, with the S&P 500 rebounding 28% over the past 75 trading days, is the largest increase in a similar timeframe since the severe market downturn during the pandemic [4] - Investors are likely to reassess their portfolios during this sensitive period, influenced by potential tariff news, economic data, and corporate earnings [5] Group 2 - Despite a rise in stock exposure among traders, it remains only moderately overweight, with active managers having reduced their U.S. stock exposure to the lowest level since May [6] - There is a belief that any market pullback may be shallow and short-lived, with the potential for further upward movement in the market [6] - Historical data indicates that in the past decade, August has seen positive returns in five out of ten years, suggesting that past performance does not guarantee future results [5] Group 3 - The current high level of long positions held by commodity trading advisors (CTAs) indicates confidence in the market but also raises the risk of a sharp reversal if market conditions change [7] - Seasonal patterns suggest that U.S. stocks often peak around mid-August, and rising bond yields could negatively impact the market outlook [7] - Key warning signals to monitor include significant increases in yields, shifts towards more defensive positions, and weakening market breadth, although these conditions have not yet materialized [7]