股市长牛慢牛
Search documents
客观理性看待居民存款搬家进股市
Huachuang Securities· 2025-08-29 12:14
Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed 3800 points, with a PE_TTM ratio of 16.6, indicating that stocks are no longer at their cheapest levels, as they are at the 97th percentile over the past decade and 71st percentile over the past twenty years[3]. - The total market capitalization of all A-shares reached 116 trillion CNY, while household deposits stood at 161 trillion CNY, resulting in a ratio of 72%, close to the historical median[4]. Deposit Trends - As of July 2025, household deposits decreased by 1.1 trillion CNY month-on-month, marking a trend that has been ongoing since last year, indicating that the migration of deposits to the stock market is not a new phenomenon[7]. - New non-bank deposits showed a significant increase, with a monthly addition of 2.1 trillion CNY in July 2025, the second-highest since 2015[11]. Margin Financing and Investor Activity - The margin financing balance reached 2.2 trillion CNY, with individual investors making up 99.3% of the total, indicating a high risk appetite among retail investors[13]. - New account openings surged, with 6.85 million new individual accounts in October 2024, significantly higher than the monthly average of 2.13 million during the previous year[19]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The search interest for A-shares on social media platforms has surged since June 2025, reflecting increased public interest in the stock market[23]. - The balance of client transaction settlement funds at securities companies rose to 2.6 trillion CNY by the end of 2024, indicating a positive trend in market liquidity[26]. Financial Asset Allocation - Chinese residents' financial asset allocation is still below that of U.S. residents, with only 56.5% in financial assets compared to around 70% in the U.S., suggesting potential for future growth in stock market investments[39].