记者 刘颖 2025年12月18日，在"《财经》年会2026：预测与战略暨2025全球财富管理论坛"上，多位券商首席经济学家、学者聚焦消费提振路径，从扩大投资、提升居 民收入、改善居民收入分配等多个维度，为破解消费疲软建言。 当下，国内消费需求不足成为经济增长的关键制约。国家发改委党组近日在《求是》杂志刊文称，内需不足是当前经济运行面临的主要挑战，突出表现为居 民消费率偏低，2024年中国居民消费率为39.9%，与发达国家相比仍有约10—30个百分点差距，特别是服务消费占比偏低。 投资于人 "回到中国经济本身，如何解决有效需求不足，似乎成了一个长期的题目。需求不足是一个复杂的问题，从需求的不同类型来看，第一个就是消费需求不 足。"中信证券首席经济学家明明说。 明明表示，11月的社零数据较预期低，2025年下半年社零数据较上半年低，重要原因是下半年"以旧换新"政策额度规模相对小，消费下降。 "过去我们不断增加以旧换新的规模，方向肯定是对的，但从结构上看未必是对的。"明明表示，从消费品以旧换新的发展特点来看，由于不同产品消费周期 不同，补贴产品的体积及单价由大变小，即从汽车等大件商品，到家用电器、消费电子等小件类 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed 3800 points, with a PE_TTM ratio of 16.6, indicating that stocks are no longer at their cheapest levels, as they are at the 97th percentile over the past decade and 71st percentile over the past twenty years[3]. - The total market capitalization of all A-shares reached 116 trillion CNY, while household deposits stood at 161 trillion CNY, resulting in a ratio of 72%, close to the historical median[4]. Deposit Trends - As of July 2025, household deposits decreased by 1.1 trillion CNY month-on-month, marking a trend that has been ongoing since last year, indicating that the migration of deposits to the stock market is not a new phenomenon[7]. - New non-bank deposits showed a significant increase, with a monthly addition of 2.1 trillion CNY in July 2025, the second-highest since 2015[11]. Margin Financing and Investor Activity - The margin financing balance reached 2.2 trillion CNY, with individual investors making up 99.3% of the total, indicating a high risk appetite among retail investors[13]. - New account openings surged, with 6.85 million new individual accounts in October 2024, significantly higher than the monthly average of 2.13 million during the previous year[19]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The search interest for A-shares on social media platforms has surged since June 2025, reflecting increased public interest in the stock market[23]. - The balance of client transaction settlement funds at securities companies rose to 2.6 trillion CNY by the end of 2024, indicating a positive trend in market liquidity[26]. Financial Asset Allocation - Chinese residents' financial asset allocation is still below that of U.S. residents, with only 56.5% in financial assets compared to around 70% in the U.S., suggesting potential for future growth in stock market investments[39].