报告导读： 12 月通胀维持稳中有升的态势，其中食品价格的低基数、金价重拾升势、全 球工业金属的狂飙是核心贡献，内需相关的分项价格（如：服务价格、黑色金属）相对稳 定。往后看，核心通胀的韧性预有望延续，但物价弹性的打开仍需内需政策的积极发力。 12月CPI同比增速+0.8%，环比+0.2%；PPI同比增速-1.9%，环比回升至0.2%。 12月通胀保持稳步回升。食品价格低基数是CPI的主要贡献，核心通胀环 比依然处于季节性上沿，同比维持稳定（+1.2%）。12月的金价重拾涨势是核心通胀维持韧性的关键，但中长期回升依然需要居民资产负债表的持续修复。 PPI环比在12月小幅回升，有色金属是主要的贡献。 CPI：食品拖累减轻，服务贡献抬升 PPI：有色延续强势，黑色链条稳定 总体来看，12月的通胀维持稳中有升的态势，其中食品价格的低基数、金价重拾升势、全球工业金属的狂飙是核心贡献，内需相关的分项价格（如：服务价 格、黑色金属）相对稳定。 往后看，核心通胀的韧性预有望延续，但物价弹性的打开仍需内需政策的积极发力。 风险提示： 地产尾部压力依然存在、消费修复动能不及预期。 法律声明 12月PPI同比-1.9%，环比回升 ...

居民资产负债表，居民杠杆率 2024年第一季度以来，我国居民部门杠杆率开始缓慢下行，显示我国居民部门正逐步进行资产负债表修 复。 降低居民部门杠杆率主要有四种路径：通过债务减记降低负债端，或通过股票上涨、房产增值和收入增 长做大资产端。这四种路径的组合形成了三种降杠杆的模式：一是美国次贷危机后的模式，初期通过快 速的债务减记和股价上涨降低居民杠杆，而后收入回升和房价企稳促使居民资产负债表进一步修复。二 是美国公共卫生事件后的模式，彼时居民负债水平健康，财政与货币相互配合的超常规宽松促使股价和 居民收入上涨，起到降低杠杆率的作用。三是日本双重泡沫破灭后的模式，初期日本政府未及时处置不 良债务问题，居民负债居高不下，拖累了居民杠杆修复。亚洲金融海啸后日本开始推动不良债务出清， 但收入上涨未能弥补房价下跌的损失，居民杠杆迟迟没有下降；小泉上台后债务减记使杠杆率下降，但 收入增长缓慢；后期安倍"三支箭"使股价与收入上涨，带动房价企稳回升。 国际经验显示：一是在降杠杆的启动期，不良债务的处置具有重要作用。美国政府在次贷危机爆发后快 速地实施不良债务处置措施，通过购买不良资产以核销坏账，并对居民房贷进行重组，加速了居民资 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed 3800 points, with a PE_TTM ratio of 16.6, indicating that stocks are no longer at their cheapest levels, as they are at the 97th percentile over the past decade and 71st percentile over the past twenty years[3]. - The total market capitalization of all A-shares reached 116 trillion CNY, while household deposits stood at 161 trillion CNY, resulting in a ratio of 72%, close to the historical median[4]. Deposit Trends - As of July 2025, household deposits decreased by 1.1 trillion CNY month-on-month, marking a trend that has been ongoing since last year, indicating that the migration of deposits to the stock market is not a new phenomenon[7]. - New non-bank deposits showed a significant increase, with a monthly addition of 2.1 trillion CNY in July 2025, the second-highest since 2015[11]. Margin Financing and Investor Activity - The margin financing balance reached 2.2 trillion CNY, with individual investors making up 99.3% of the total, indicating a high risk appetite among retail investors[13]. - New account openings surged, with 6.85 million new individual accounts in October 2024, significantly higher than the monthly average of 2.13 million during the previous year[19]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The search interest for A-shares on social media platforms has surged since June 2025, reflecting increased public interest in the stock market[23]. - The balance of client transaction settlement funds at securities companies rose to 2.6 trillion CNY by the end of 2024, indicating a positive trend in market liquidity[26]. Financial Asset Allocation - Chinese residents' financial asset allocation is still below that of U.S. residents, with only 56.5% in financial assets compared to around 70% in the U.S., suggesting potential for future growth in stock market investments[39].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The decline in corporate loans does not affect the "watch stocks and trade bonds, stock - bond reversal" judgment. The overall corporate financing scale is still growing, and the current market rally may have significant potential. The recovery of the residents' balance sheet is triggered by the return of the average earnings of the 3 - trillion - yuan funds issued during the 2019 - 2021 bull market. The market re - balancing style may be influenced by the subsequent inflow channels of market - entering funds. The bond market has entered the second stage of the "three - step" process in the second half of the year, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield may fluctuate in the range of 1.65% - 1.75%. Euro assets face systemic risks, and most A - share and Hong Kong stock timing models are bullish [3][13][18]. Summary by Directory Macro - Zhang Yu - Corporate loan contraction is related to the control of manufacturing investment, which may be beneficial for PPI growth. The overall corporate financing scale is increasing as equity and bond financing have improved compared to the previous year. The current economic cycle is improving, and stocks are more cost - effective than bonds. The "watch stocks and trade bonds" narrative remains unchanged, and the central bank may address potential capital idling [13][15][16]. Strategy - Yao Pei - The balance sheets of various sectors are being repaired. The return of the average earnings of the 3 - trillion - yuan funds issued during the 2019 - 2021 bull market is a key trigger for the repair of the residents' balance sheet. The stock market is an important cornerstone for the repair of the residents' balance sheet. After the funds return to profitability, the redemption pressure may increase, and the "redemption" funds are likely to flow back to financial assets. The market re - balancing style is affected by the inflow channels of subsequent market - entering funds [18][19][25]. Fixed Income - Zhou Guannan - In August, the bond market enters the policy effect verification period, with potential support from new policy - based financial tools, "anti - involution" price repair, and external factors. Liquidity may face disturbances from payments and the stock - bond seesaw effect. The supply of bonds is increasing while demand is limited, resulting in supply - demand pressure. Historically, the bond market in August may be volatile. The bond market has entered the second stage of the "three - step" process in the second half of the year, and investors should adjust positions and take profits in a timely manner [26][27][30]. Multi - Asset Allocation - Guo Zhongliang - Euro assets face three systemic risks: extremely low risk premiums, weak economic recovery, and a strong euro. These risks may lead investors to reduce their allocation of euro assets [32][33][34]. Quantitative Finance - Wang Xiaochuan - Most A - share and Hong Kong stock timing models are bullish. The total positions of stock - type and hybrid funds have increased this week. Communication and basic chemicals have received the largest institutional increases, while transportation and electronics have received the largest institutional decreases. The VIX index has risen. The recommended industries for next week are textile and apparel, consumer services, power and utilities, transportation, and non - ferrous metals [34][39][46]. Finance - Xu Geng - The A - share trading volume has exceeded 2 trillion yuan on 27 trading days in three periods, indicating the market's evolution towards a more mature one. The current trading volume and margin trading balance confirm active market sentiment. The securities sector has performance growth and valuation repair potential. Short - term focus on market sentiment - driven opportunities, and long - term focus on high - quality targets [47][48].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - Weakening credit and investment indicate a potential balance in supply and demand, suggesting a positive outlook for the market[2] - The current market intervention policies have reduced stock volatility, enhancing risk-adjusted returns for equities[2] - The overall financing scale for enterprises is still growing, with improvements in equity and bond financing compared to the same period last year[12] Group 2: Fund Performance and Asset Allocation - The average return of newly established public funds in the current bull market has reached breakeven, with a total of 3 trillion yuan in new funds issued from 2019 to 2021[18] - Fund redemption pressures are expected to increase post-breakeven, particularly in sectors like new energy, pharmaceuticals, and food and beverage[22] - The total position of stock funds is at 99.11%, reflecting a 61 basis point increase from the previous week, indicating strong market sentiment[40] Group 3: Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to enter a "hard mode," with the 10-year government bond yield projected to rise slightly to a core volatility range of 1.65%-1.75%[31] - The second phase of the bond market strategy emphasizes timely adjustments and profit-taking, particularly around the 1.65% yield level[31] - The liquidity gap in August is estimated to be around 1.8 trillion yuan, indicating a seasonal increase in funding pressure[29] Group 4: European Market Risks - Eurozone assets face systemic risks, including low risk premiums and potential overvaluation compared to U.S. assets[32] - The Eurozone's economic recovery remains fragile, with weak credit demand and declining growth rates in M3 money supply[33] - The strong euro has negatively impacted exports, with a decline in export growth from 3% to 0.9% year-on-year[34]

Group 1: Loan Data - In July, new RMB loans decreased by 50 billion, a year-on-year reduction of 310 billion, lower than the Wind average expectation[12] - From January to July, RMB loans decreased by 660 billion year-on-year, with a growth rate decline of 1.6 percentage points compared to last year[12] - The structure of loans deteriorated, with household loans down by 492.7 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 287.1 billion[13] Group 2: Deposit Data - In July, RMB deposits increased by 500 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.3 trillion[16] - Household deposits decreased by 780 billion year-on-year, while corporate deposits increased by 320.9 billion[16] - From January to July, RMB deposits increased by 7.78 trillion year-on-year, with corporate deposits contributing 45.5%[16] Group 3: Social Financing (社融) - In July, new social financing reached 1.2 trillion, with a growth rate of 9%, up by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[18] - Government bonds contributed significantly, with net financing of approximately 812.4 billion for local bonds, a year-on-year increase[19] - The overall social financing growth is expected to decline, with government bond growth peaking and then decreasing[18] Group 4: Market Insights - The equity market has exerted emotional pressure on the bond market, leading to a "stock-bond seesaw" effect[3] - The current financial data supports a bullish outlook on the bond market, with a 1.7% yield on ten-year bonds seen as an entry point[5] - The weakening demand for financing in the real economy suggests limited upward pressure on interest rates in the near future[5]

Core Insights - The overall recovery of actively managed public funds has reached 95% since the last bull market peak. A 5% increase in the equity fund index could correspond to a 5% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index, targeting around 3800 points [9][32][40] - Among the 3 trillion new funds, the thematic funds have a scale of 500 billion, with consumption funds at 40%, manufacturing funds at 31%, and pharmaceutical funds at 19%. The new funds have faced greater pressure, with an overall recovery to an average of 94% of the initial net value, while the pharmaceutical funds have returned to positive, consumption funds at 82%, and manufacturing funds at 88% [9][46] - The asset allocation of Chinese residents is primarily concentrated in housing and stocks, with the adjustments in the stock and real estate markets over the past three years being the main reason for the shrinkage of residents' balance sheets. Stabilizing these markets is crucial for improving residents' income [9][10][22] - Compared to real estate, the stock market is a key foundation for the future recovery of residents' balance sheets and the enhancement of property income. The current recovery of the 3 trillion new funds reflects the significant impact of this bull market on the repair of residents' balance sheets [10][23] Fund Performance Analysis - The performance of old funds has been significantly lower than that of new funds, with old funds showing an average net value return of -12%, while new funds have achieved an average return of 2%. The disparity in returns is primarily due to the higher base of net value calculations for old funds [38][40] - As of August 6, 2025, the overall average return of new and old funds has improved by 25 percentage points since the low in January 2024, with old funds recovering by 20 percentage points and new funds by 29 percentage points [40][41] - The analysis of thematic funds indicates that the performance of new funds in thematic sectors has been under pressure, with the average net value return for thematic funds in old funds at -17% and for new funds at -6% [46][51] Market Dynamics - The stock market's role as a vehicle for excess savings is emphasized, with the potential for an influx of 10 trillion yuan into the stock market if it returns to the average ratio of the past five years [10][12] - The report highlights the importance of policy support in stabilizing the stock and real estate markets, which has been a focus since September 2024, aiming to restore residents' balance sheets and enhance property income [10][22] - The recovery of residents' financial confidence is evident, with personal housing loan balances showing a positive trend after a period of decline, indicating a shift back to an expansion state for residents' balance sheets [22][23]

Group 1 - The overall recovery of existing actively managed public funds has reached 95% since the peak of the last bull market. A 5% increase in the equity fund index could correspond to a 5% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index to around 3800 points [3][17][26] - New funds have surpassed their initial average net value as of July 24, with an overall net return average of 2%. Old funds have recovered to 88% of the previous bull market peak [3][27][28] - The scale of thematic funds among the 3 trillion new funds is 500 billion, with sector allocations of 40% in consumer, 31% in manufacturing, and 19% in pharmaceuticals. New thematic funds are under greater pressure, having recovered to 94% of their initial net value average [3][30][31] Group 2 - The stability of the stock and real estate markets is crucial for improving residents' income. The bull market has facilitated the transfer of excess savings into the stock market, creating a positive feedback loop [4][12][13] - Compared to real estate, the stock market is a key foundation for the future recovery of residents' balance sheets and enhancement of property income. The current structure of second-hand housing transactions limits the consumption of residents' savings [12][13][36] - The adjustment in the stock and real estate markets over the past three years has been the main reason for the shrinkage of residents' balance sheets. Stabilizing these markets can effectively restore residents' confidence and income [12][13][36]