华尔街正流传一个令人不安的猜想：在经历多年辉煌涨幅后，美国股市未来十年可能基本持平。 "即便对于明年，历史数据也不容乐观：标普500指数在连续3年涨幅超15%后，年均回报率将比历史均 值低2.3个百分点。投资者可能需要国内生产总值（GDP）和每股收益（EPS）超预期，才能避免第七 个'失落的十年'，"美国银行在给客户的报告中写道。 阿波罗全球管理公司（Apollo）首席经济学家托尔斯滕·斯洛克（Torsten Sløk）也表示，他预计未来十 年标普500指数将相对持平。他周四表示，这一预测基于标普500指数当前的远期市盈率水平。 "标普500指数远期市盈率与后续十年年化回报率的历史关系表明，投资者应预期未来十年标普500指数 回报率为零，"斯洛克说。 周四，美股涨幅仍在持续。由于投资者担忧甲骨文（Oracle）财报而撤离科技股，转而推动标普500指 数（SPX）和道指（DJI）创下历史新高。 但越来越多预测人士认为，这场盛宴可能即将落幕，他们指出市场可能受两大因素拖累： 首先是估值高企。美股估值正处于历史高位。据全球市盈率（World PE Ratio）分析，标普500指数当前 市盈率约为27倍，高于5年均值 ...

Core Viewpoint - The sudden sell-off in the Vietnamese stock market on July 29 was primarily driven by foreign investors cashing out after a period of strong market performance, leading to significant declines in major indices and sectors [2][6][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 29, the Ho Chi Minh Index (VN Index) experienced a drop of 4.11%, closing at 1493.41 points, while the VN30 Index fell by 4.38% to 1621.29 points [3]. - The VN Index reached a historical high of 1566.74 points earlier that day, marking a 45.9% increase from its low in early April [5][7]. - The trading volume surged to nearly 14 trillion VND within the first hour, causing some brokerage systems to malfunction due to high demand [5]. Group 2: Causes of the Sell-off - The primary reason for the market decline was the aggressive selling by foreign investors, who net sold over 9390 billion VND in the morning session alone, focusing on large-cap stocks that had previously supported the index [6]. - The market's high valuation, with a price-to-earnings ratio around 15 times, has raised concerns about overvaluation, as corporate profit growth has not kept pace with stock price increases [6]. - Investors are reportedly increasing their leverage, with some brokerage firms reaching their margin limits, which could restrict further price increases in the short term [6]. Group 3: Economic Context - The Vietnamese economy showed strong growth, with a GDP increase of 7.52% in the first half of the year, the highest for the same period since 2011 [9]. - Foreign investors had net bought over 400 million USD in Vietnamese stocks in July, marking the second consecutive month of inflows, contrasting with outflows from other Southeast Asian markets [9]. - The potential reclassification of Vietnam in the FTSE index could attract up to 6 billion USD in capital inflows, further influencing market dynamics [9].